Winning Plays - Wagner

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. . 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: W14, W25, W25, W25, W25, W25, W25, W25, W25, W25, W25
Total: Syracuse 11 Wagner 0
P: 34 to W20, 54 to W15
Total: Syracuse 1 Wagner 1
FG: Good from 38, Good from 50
Total: Syracuse 2 Wagner 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 8 Wagner 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 22 Wagner 1

1r: 1TD, 5, 13, 4, 4, 8, 1, 0, 2, 5, 8, 3(5), 20TD, 3, 26, 7, -4, 4, 3, 7, 7, 1
Total: Syracuse 15 Wagner 7
1p: 7, 6s(20), 17, 3, I, 4, 10, 5, 12, I, 12(20), I, 13, I, 23
Total: Syracuse 9 Wagner 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 24 Wagner 13
2r: -5, 2(14), 7(7), 1, 6(5), 2(2), 7(7), 6(9), 2, 16(7), 8(3), 10(3), 4
Total: Syracuse 8 Wagner 5
2p: 7s(5), Interception, I, 2(6), 8(2), I, -6s, 5(10), I, I, 14(8), -4, 4TD, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Wagner 9
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Wagner 14
3r: 10(9), 4(3)
Total: Syracuse 2 Wagner 0
3p: 7(1), 16TD, 9(11), 24TD, 13(4), 6s(9), I, 1s, 28TD, I, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Wagner 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Wagner 6
4r: 2(1), -1
Total: Syracuse 1 Wagner 1
4p: 3TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Wagner 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Wagner 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 26 Wagner 13
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 20 Wagner 21
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 46 Wagner 34

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5, -15, +5, -10, -5, +5, +5 Syracuse 3 Wagner 5

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 71 Wagner 40


When Wagner had the ball:

KO: SU 34, W 49, SU 41
Total: Syracuse 3 Wagner 0
P: 37 to SU 38, -11 to W 17, 38 to SU 36, 5 to W 44, Blocked-TD, 42 to SU 30, 31 to 48, 14 to SU 46
Total: Syracuse 7 Wagner 1
FG: Good from 26
Total: Syracuse 0 Wagner 1
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Wagner 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Wagner 3

1r: 3, 2, 1, -1, 1, 3, 1, 3, -24, 0, 3, 5, 6, 1, 4, 1, 0, -1, 0, 0
Total: Syracuse 16 Wagner 4
1p: I, 24TD, I, I, 8(15), I, I, 5, interception
Total: Syracuse 6 Wagner 3
First Down Total: Syracuse 22 Wagner 7
2r: 1(7), -1, 7, 2(11), 0, 4(15), 3, 0, 0, 0, 14(9), 4, 1, 3(5)
Total: Syracuse 11 Wagner 3
2p: 8, I, 10(9), I, I, 29(6), I, 12, 27(15), 14
Total: Syracuse 4 Wagner 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 15 Wagner 9
3r: 14(19), -1, 15, 2, 7(5)
Total: Syracuse 3 Wagner 2
3p: Interception, Interception, 50(9), -5s, I, -7s, I, 7(11), 17(4), I, I, 11, 5
Total: Syracuse Wagner
Third Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wagner 3
4r: -8, 2(2)
Total: Syracuse 1 Wagner 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wagner 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Wagner 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 31 Wagner 10
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 20 Wagner 12
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 51 Wagner 22

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -10, -5, -5, -5, -10, -5 Syracuse 7 Wagner 0

Game total when Wagner had the ball: Syracuse 68 Wagner 25

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 139 Wagner 65

Comments: In the Western Michigan game, we were 23-0 on our own kicks and 10-10 on their kicks. In this game we were 22-1 on our kicks and 10-3 on theirs. That’s a total advantage in two games of 65-14 in the kicking game. In the first game I figured out that our average start line was our 39: theirs was their 21. Over 16 possessions each, we were a total of 979 yards from the goal when got the ball: they were 1268 yards away, an advantage of 289 yards. They out gained us by 61 yards, 621-560 but still came up 228 yards short of where we effectively were. In the Wagner game our average starting positon was on their 45: theirs was their 24. We had 678 yards to go: they had 1139. That’s an advantage of +461 yards. We actually out-gained them only 456-288 = +168 but if you add the difference in field positon, we were up +629 yards. In two games we’ve a +750 yard advantage in field positon and only a +107 yard advantage in yards actually gained.

Winning 139-65 plays is the definition. That’s +74, the largest margin I’ve computed in the years I’ve bene doing this, (2011 onward). Some other notorious one-sided games: Wagner 2013 +63,(54-0), Clemson 2013 -72, 14-49), Georgia Tech 2013 -67, (0-56), Florida State 2013 -49, (surprisingly low for a 3-59 debacle), Pittsburgh 2014 -68, (a mere 7-30 loss), Clemson 2016 -46, (0-54), Florida State 2016 -49, (14-45). Still, it’s interesting that even in a game like this, no less than 65 plays produced results that could be considered favorable to a team that lost by 52 points.

The game was won up front: we won 26 of our 39 running plays and 31 of their 41 running plays. Their first 11 first down runs were for 3 yards or less. We also produced 3 interceptions, all impacted by the rush, two sacks and a blocked punt.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 10-0, 11-0 = 21-0
P: 4-0, 1-1 = 5-1
FG: 2-0, 2-0 = 4-0
XP: 7-0, 8-0 = 15-0
Kicking plays total: 23-0, 22-1 = 45-1

1r: 14-16, 15-7 = 29-23
1p: 3-5, 9-6 = 12-11
First Down Total: 17-21, 24-13 = 41-34
2r: 9-6, 8-5 = 17-11
2p: 5-9, 5-9 = 10-18
Second Down Total: 14-15, 13-14 = 27-29
3r: 7-6, 2-0 = 9-6
3p: 1-4, 5-6 = 6-10
Third Down Total: 8-10, 7-6 = 15-16
4r: 2-1, 1-1 = 3-2
4p: 0-0, 1-0 = 1-0
Fourth Down Total: 2-1, 2-1 = 4-2

Total on running plays: 32-29, 26-13 = 58-42
Total on passing plays: 9-18, 20-21 = 29-39
Total on plays from scrimmage: 41-47, 46-34 = 87-81

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 5-2, 3-5 = 8-7

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 69-49, 71-40 = 140-89


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 6-1, 3-0 = 9-1
P: 3-2, 7-1 = 10-3
FG: 1-0, 0-1 = 1-1
XP: 0-7, 0-1 = 0-8
Kicking plays total: 10-10, 10-3 = 20-13

1r: 8-7, 16-4 = 24-11
1p: 10-11, 6-3 = 16-14
First Down Total: 18-18, 22-7 = 40-25
2r: 3-6, 11-3 = 14-9
2p: 5-3, 4-6 = 9-9
Second Down Total: 8-9, 15-9 = 23-18
3r: 1-1,3-2 = 4-3
3p: 1-5, 10-3 = 11-8
Third Down Total: 2-6, 13-5 = 15-11
4r: 0-0, 1-1 = 1-1
4p: 1-1, 0-0 = 1-1
Fourth Down Total: 1-1, 1-1 = 2-2

Total on running plays: 12-14, 31-10 = 43-24
Total on passing plays: 17-20, 20-12 = 37-32
Total on plays from scrimmage: 29-34, 51-22 = 80-56

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3, 7-0 = 8-3

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 40-47, 68-25 = 108-72

Overall Game Total: 109-96, 139-65 = 248-161

Comment: Our passing game is still off track (29-39), based on Dungey’s low completion percentage vs. WMU and DeVito’s difficulties. But we showed signs of pulling out of it when the young receivers were in there, (Harris and N. Johnson). We are still 10-18 on second down passes and 6-10 on third down passes. Those are the plays that determine if we keep the drive going.


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only- games we ‘won’ are in bold, games tied in italics.)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87 = +14
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 = +27
Syracuse 75 Southern California 90 = -15
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = +6
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83 = -9
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106 = -14
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 = -61 We 'won' 5 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116 = -11
Syracuse 92 Southern California 98 = -6
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 = +11
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95 = -13
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76 = +9
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73 = +20
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70 = +33
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92 = +23
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122 = -26
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86 = +17
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6
Syracuse 98 Temple 81 = -+17
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82 +23
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 = +91 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 = -38
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 = +63
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76 = +31
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72
Syracuse 111 N C State 85 = +26
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81 = +27
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87 = +13
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79 +20
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 = -80 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 = -12
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76 = +23
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100 = -29
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102 = -27
Syracuse 92 N C State 101 = -9
Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 = -203 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 = +40
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91 = -7
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93 = -13
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97 = -11
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110 = -36
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78 = +11
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 = -100 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of 12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74 We’ve ‘won’ 2 of 2 games

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 7,905 plays, (48.4%) and 31 games, (35.2%). The opposition has won 8,411 plays and 55 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 506 more plays than we have in 88 games, an average of 5.75 plays a game.