Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 2681976, member: 289"] This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula: - On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play. - On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic. - On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down. - Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. . - If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below. - A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball. - On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins. - On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play. - A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team. - Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it. - A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team. I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. . 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc. When Syracuse had the ball: KO: W14, W25, W25, W25, W25, W25, W25, W25, W25, W25, W25 Total: Syracuse 11 Wagner 0 P: 34 to W20, 54 to W15 Total: Syracuse 1 Wagner 1 FG: Good from 38, Good from 50 Total: Syracuse 2 Wagner 0 XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good Total: Syracuse 8 Wagner 0 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 22 Wagner 1 1r: 1TD, 5, 13, 4, 4, 8, 1, 0, 2, 5, 8, 3(5), 20TD, 3, 26, 7, -4, 4, 3, 7, 7, 1 Total: Syracuse 15 Wagner 7 1p: 7, 6s(20), 17, 3, I, 4, 10, 5, 12, I, 12(20), I, 13, I, 23 Total: Syracuse 9 Wagner 6 First Down Total: Syracuse 24 Wagner 13 2r: -5, 2(14), 7(7), 1, 6(5), 2(2), 7(7), 6(9), 2, 16(7), 8(3), 10(3), 4 Total: Syracuse 8 Wagner 5 2p: 7s(5), Interception, I, 2(6), 8(2), I, -6s, 5(10), I, I, 14(8), -4, 4TD, I Total: Syracuse 5 Wagner 9 Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Wagner 14 3r: 10(9), 4(3) Total: Syracuse 2 Wagner 0 3p: 7(1), 16TD, 9(11), 24TD, 13(4), 6s(9), I, 1s, 28TD, I, I Total: Syracuse 5 Wagner 6 Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Wagner 6 4r: 2(1), -1 Total: Syracuse 1 Wagner 1 4p: 3TD Total: Syracuse 1 Wagner 0 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Wagner 1 Total on running plays: Syracuse 26 Wagner 13 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 20 Wagner 21 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 46 Wagner 34 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5, -15, +5, -10, -5, +5, +5 Syracuse 3 Wagner 5 Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 71 Wagner 40 When Wagner had the ball: KO: SU 34, W 49, SU 41 Total: Syracuse 3 Wagner 0 P: 37 to SU 38, -11 to W 17, 38 to SU 36, 5 to W 44, Blocked-TD, 42 to SU 30, 31 to 48, 14 to SU 46 Total: Syracuse 7 Wagner 1 FG: Good from 26 Total: Syracuse 0 Wagner 1 XP: Good Total: Syracuse 0 Wagner 1 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Wagner 3 1r: 3, 2, 1, -1, 1, 3, 1, 3, -24, 0, 3, 5, 6, 1, 4, 1, 0, -1, 0, 0 Total: Syracuse 16 Wagner 4 1p: I, 24TD, I, I, 8(15), I, I, 5, interception Total: Syracuse 6 Wagner 3 First Down Total: Syracuse 22 Wagner 7 2r: 1(7), -1, 7, 2(11), 0, 4(15), 3, 0, 0, 0, 14(9), 4, 1, 3(5) Total: Syracuse 11 Wagner 3 2p: 8, I, 10(9), I, I, 29(6), I, 12, 27(15), 14 Total: Syracuse 4 Wagner 6 Second Down Total: Syracuse 15 Wagner 9 3r: 14(19), -1, 15, 2, 7(5) Total: Syracuse 3 Wagner 2 3p: Interception, Interception, 50(9), -5s, I, -7s, I, 7(11), 17(4), I, I, 11, 5 Total: Syracuse Wagner Third Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wagner 3 4r: -8, 2(2) Total: Syracuse 1 Wagner 1 4p: none Total: Syracuse 0 Wagner 0 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Wagner 1 Total on running plays: Syracuse 31 Wagner 10 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 20 Wagner 12 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 51 Wagner 22 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -10, -5, -5, -5, -10, -5 Syracuse 7 Wagner 0 Game total when Wagner had the ball: Syracuse 68 Wagner 25 Overall Game Total: Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 Comments: In the Western Michigan game, we were 23-0 on our own kicks and 10-10 on their kicks. In this game we were 22-1 on our kicks and 10-3 on theirs. That’s a total advantage in two games of 65-14 in the kicking game. In the first game I figured out that our average start line was our 39: theirs was their 21. Over 16 possessions each, we were a total of 979 yards from the goal when got the ball: they were 1268 yards away, an advantage of 289 yards. They out gained us by 61 yards, 621-560 but still came up 228 yards short of where we effectively were. In the Wagner game our average starting positon was on their 45: theirs was their 24. We had 678 yards to go: they had 1139. That’s an advantage of +461 yards. We actually out-gained them only 456-288 = +168 but if you add the difference in field positon, we were up +629 yards. In two games we’ve a +750 yard advantage in field positon and only a +107 yard advantage in yards actually gained. Winning 139-65 plays is the definition. That’s +74, the largest margin I’ve computed in the years I’ve bene doing this, (2011 onward). Some other notorious one-sided games: Wagner 2013 +63,(54-0), Clemson 2013 -72, 14-49), Georgia Tech 2013 -67, (0-56), Florida State 2013 -49, (surprisingly low for a 3-59 debacle), Pittsburgh 2014 -68, (a mere 7-30 loss), Clemson 2016 -46, (0-54), Florida State 2016 -49, (14-45). Still, it’s interesting that even in a game like this, no less than 65 plays produced results that could be considered favorable to a team that lost by 52 points. The game was won up front: we won 26 of our 39 running plays and 31 of their 41 running plays. Their first 11 first down runs were for 3 yards or less. We also produced 3 interceptions, all impacted by the rush, two sacks and a blocked punt. [/QUOTE]

Verification: What is a Syracuse fan's favorite color?