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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 746665, member: 289"] I’m going to use the same system used last year to break down games from the perspective of how many times did each team get what they wanted from a play and deny the other team what they wanted. It’s basically an attempt to see if one team physically dominated the game, in which case they’d win most of the plays, or was the game decided on “big” plays, mistakes and breaks, as most games are. If you physically dominated a team, you have a chance to win a lot of games if the other things at least even out. If you weren’t physically dominated in a loss, that loss doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t win a bunch of other games on your schedule. Basically, the problems can be fixed on the practice field, not the recruiting trail or the weight room. The formula is this: If the offense on first down, can get at least a third of the way to a first down or on second down can get at least halfway to a first down, (always round the yardage needed up), or on third or fourth down can get a first down, they won the play. If they didn’t the defense won the play. Any offensive score is a win for the offense. Any turnover is a win for the defense. If a penalty is part of the play, the yardage gained or lost just gets figured into the play’s result. Penalties that negate a play or dead ball fouls are counted separately. If a team runs the “victory” play at the end of a half or game, (it’s always a two yard loss), their goal is to maintain possession of the ball while the clock runs, not to gain yardage. So any victory play where they do that is a win for them , despite the lost yardage. Any successful placekick is a win for the kicking team. An unsuccessful kick is a win for the defending team. Punts are evaluated by their net result only. A punt from the 50 yard line into the end zone is a 30 yard punt, not a 50 yard punt. A 53 yard punt that produces a 52 yard return is a 1 yard punt. Any punt that results in a net change in the line of scrimmage of 40 yards downfield or that results in the other team starting from their own twenty yard line or closer to their goal line is a win for the kicking team. The one recent new wrinkle is that kickoff touchbacks now come out to the 25 yard line. Any kickoff that results in the receiving team starting their drive from the 25 yard line or closer to their own goal line is a win for the kicking team. I’m going to chart each game in the following manner: For each team, I’ll list the result of each kickoff, (where the other team started their possession after the kickoff), the net yardage of each punt, (if they never got the punt off note whether it was blocked or bobbled and the net yardage of the play) and the yard line it wound up on, the result of each extra point, (I’ll note if it was a two point attempt) and field goal attempt. (I’ll also note any conversion returned for two points: I don’t think we’ve had one in our games since Pitt in 1990). Then I’ll record what happened on each first down run, first down pass, second down run and pass, third down run and pass and fourth down run and pass. If the yardage needed for a first down or a score in a goal to go situation is other than 10, I’ll note that unless the play resulted in a loss, no gain or an incomplete pass, in which case nit was a win for the defense regardless of the yardage needed. If it was a ”victory play” I’ll put a ’V’ next to it. Sacks are reported under passes, not runs, just by the negative yardage. If a quarterback scrambled for positive yardage, that’s a run simply because that’s how the ESPN play-by-play, which I am using, would record it. I’ll note the number of penalties that were not tacked onto the play and the turnovers separately. Each line will have a “score” at the end of it, stating how many plays in each category each team won. There will be a grand total at the end, followed by a brief analysis of the stats and the game. When Syracuse had the ball: KO- 17,26, 19, 25, 25, 24, 17, 21, 22, 31 (SU 8 WG 2) P- 66(W14), (35(W21), 34(W35), 37(W22) (SU 1 WG1) FG G, G, NG (SU 2 WG 1) XP NG, G, G, G, G, G, G (SU 6 WG1) Total for kicking game: Syracuse 17 Wagner 7 1st rush- 3, 15, 5, 6, 1(3), 22, 9, -2, 3TD, 11, -8, 6, 4, 0, 4, 11, 2(6), 0, 3, 6, 1, 16, -3, 3, 14, 9, 2 (SU 17 WG 10) 1st pass- 0, I, 3, 42, -8, 30TD, 0, 5, 8TD, I, 11, 41TD, 17, 11, 21, -8 (SU 9 WG 7) First Down total: Syracuse 26 Wagner 17 2nd rush- 1, 1, 4(7), 1(7), 4(5), 1(4), 2TD, 2(5), 25(1), 3(4), -5, 2(7), 3(4), 2(9), 2(7), 12(1) (SU 7 WG 9) 2nd pass- I, 6(12), 18, 8(6), I, 4TD, 10, 4(2) (SU 6 WG 2) Second Down total: Syracuse 13 Wagner 11 3rd run- 7(3), 8(6), 7(1) (SU 3 WG 0) 3rd pass- I, I, -4, 8(6), 12(1), 10(3), 15, 0, 65TD, -7, I, 9(7), 9(5) (SU7 WG 6) Third Down total: SU 10 WG 6 4th run- none 4th pass- none Fourth Down total: none Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 49 Wagner 34, (run 27-19, pass 22-15) Penalties: 5,5,5, Turnovers: none Total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 66 Wagner 44 When Wagner had the ball: KO- 19 (SU 0 WG 1) P- 37(S41), 61(S32), 38(S36), 36(S41), 22(W49), 4-(S27), 33(W43), 46(S36), 24(S43), 49(S27), 48(S21) (SU6 WG 5) FG none XP none Total for kicking game: SU 6 Wagner 6 1st rush- 2, 1(5), 4, -2, 4, 0, 1, 12, -5, 7 (SU 7 WG 4) 1st pass- 6, 1, I, I, I, I, I,14, I, I (SU 7 WG 2) First Down total: Syracuse 14 Wagner 6 2nd rush- 4(9), -2, 0, 7, 5, 1(12), -4, 4, 2(3), 5, 0 (SU 7 WG 4) 2nd pass- -18, -10, I (SU 3 WG 0) Second Down total: Syracuse 10 Wagner 4 3rd run- 2, 3(5), 14(1), 4(5) (SU 3 Wagner 1) 3rd pass- I, 1(11), I, I, 13(11), 3(20), I, I, I, 9 (SU 9 Wagner12) Third Down total: Syracuse 12 Wagner 2 4th run- -1 (SU 1 WG 0) 4th pass- none Fourth Down total: Syracuse 1 Wagner 0 Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 37 Wagner 12 (runs: 18-9, passes: 19-3) Penalties: 5, 5, 15 (SU 3 WG 0) Turnovers: fumble, 2 interceptions (SU 3 WG 0) Total when Wagner had the ball: Syracuse 49 Wagner 18 Overall kicking game total: SU 23 WG 13 Overall plays from scrimmage total: SU 86 WG 46 Overall penalties and turnovers: SU 6 WG 3 Game Total: Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 Comment: I’ve been tracking SU games this way for a couple of years now but the germ of this idea was a Florida State-South Carolina years ago where the ‘Noles won 59-0 and seemed to me to “win” every play. This is the first opportunity I’ve had to chart a similar game and it’s interesting that, uncompetitive as they were, the Seahawks “won” 52 plays in this game. Apparently a really one-sided game has about a 2-1 advantage for the winner over the loser in plays won. Of course, SU’s plays included TD passes of 30 and 41 yards and another pass for 42 yards that set up a score. We were also +3 in turnover margin. Our average starting point for a drive was the Syracuse 40. Theirs was the Wagner 22. The Seahawk’s longest gain was 14 yards, a successful play but not a 40 play. Wagner didn’t get a first down or penetrate SU territory until it was 37-0. Our offense was impressive, winning 49 of 83 plays. But it was our defense that was dominant , 37 of 49 2. At least Wagner didn’t miss a place kick. They never attempted one, and only kicked off the once. The question, of course, is whether all this success was because we were a good team in disguise or simply that we were playing Wagner. Stay tuned…. [/QUOTE]

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