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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 1909473, member: 289"] This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula: - On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more games before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play. - On second down, the offense wants to get halfway to a new first down by the same logic. - On third and fourth down, they want to get the new first down. - Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. - If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below. - A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball. - On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. - On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field positon is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play. - A successful place kick is, obviously a win for the kicking team. - Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it. - A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team. I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’m undecided about whether to count a scramble as a running play or passing play. For now, I’ll count it as a running play and put an ‘S’ next to it in case I change my mind. Thus an S in running plays is a scramble, an S in passing plays a sack. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc. When SYRACUSE had the ball: KO: WF 25, WF 25 Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 0 P: 36 to WF 39, 50 to WF 12, 32 to SU 46, 35 to WF 21, 44 to WF 28, 44 to SU 36, 39 to WF 23, 42 to WF 45, 45 to WF 2, 42 to WF 22 Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 4 FG: none attempted Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0 XP: Good Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 9 Wake Forest 4 1r: -2, 0, 3, 6, 4, 0, 2(3), 2, -1, 2, 3, 2, 37, 3, 1 Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 11 1p: 12, 14, 5, 3, -3(S), Interception, I, 6, -7(S), 11(15), 12, I, Fumble (TD) Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 7 First Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 18 2r: 6(12), 1(7), -7, 5, 5(6), 1TD, 4(13), 3(11), -1, 4, 1(4), -3, 12(8), -1 Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 9 2p: 2, I, 11(10), 11(8), I, I, 12(7) Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 4 Second Down Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 13 3r: 2(8), 2(11), 27(4), 3(1), 49(9), 5(8), -4 Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 4 3p: -4(5), I, I, 7(8), -13(S), 33(6), 11(3), I, 9(11) Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 7 Third Down Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 11 4r: none Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0 4p: 8(2) Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0 Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Wake Forest 24 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 12 Wake Forest 18 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 24 Wake Forest 42 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, -5 Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 3 Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 33 Wake Forest 49 Comments: We continue to run the ball poorly, especially on first down (4-11). We had three strong bursts: a 49 yarder by Strickland, a 37 yarder by Neal and a 27 yarder by Dungey. Only the last led to a score. Separating out the sacks, we had 84 yards on 31 carries other than that: 2.7 yards per carry. The game was won by the team that could sustain drives and in a hurricane, the only way to sustain a drive was on the ground. I did have hopes when we started out with three completions totaling 31 yards in our fourth possession- maybe we were going play our game, regardless of the weather. We wound up running the ball 61 of the time. Those three 5 yard penalties were also important: two of them came on the last possession in which it was still a one score game and it led to a three and out. When WAKE FOREST had the ball: KO: SU 25, SU 34 (after safety: ball was kicked from 20 instead of 35 to SU 9, returned 25 to SU 34), SU 20, SU 25, SU 30, SU 25 Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 5 I decided the kickoff after the safety was a “win because if it had been from the 35, it would have gone into the end zone and Riley’s return would have been to the SU 19.) P: Safety, 38 to SU 13, 35 to SU 41, 41 to SU 11, 50 to SU 6, 31 to SU 9, 51 to SU 38 Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 5 FG: none attempted Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0 XP: Good, Good, Good, Good Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 4 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 14 1r: 1, 0, 3, 9, 0, 14, 9, 3, 1, 37TD, -1(V), 14, 3, 2, 8, 3, 6, 4, 3TD Total: Syracuse 9 Wake Forest 10 1p: I, I, 9, 25, 8, 7, 15(P), 6, I, I, I, 28, 21(P) Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 8 First Down Total: Syracuse 14 Wake Forest 18 2r: 14, 6(7), 4, 17(1), 0, 4(1), 3(2), 0, -1(P), 0, 1(4), -1, 6(7), 1(2), -1, 0, 5(6) Total: Syracuse 9 Wake Forest 8 2p: I, 14, 4(9), Interception, 7(8) Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 2 Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 Wake Forest 10 3r: 5(9), 0, 0, 7TD, 12(1), 4(1), 9(11), 0, 2(1), 3(4), 17(1) Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 5 3p: 15(P), -6(8), 8(5), 3(3), 3(3), I, I Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 4 Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Wake Forest 9 4r: Fumble Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0 4p: none Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0 Total on running plays: Syracuse 25 Wake Forest 23 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 11 Wake Forest 14 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 36 Wake Forest 37 Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15 Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1 Game total when WAKE FOREST had the ball: Syracuse 39 Wake Forest 52 Overall game Total: Syracuse 71 Wake Forest 101 Comments: We didn’t exactly get run over, (25-23) but Wake was able to get enough successful running plays and mix in a few passing plays to keep control of the game. Our weak offensive performance, (24-42 led to the one-sided final margin in plays (71-101) that led to the one-sided final score, despite the fact that we almost matched them in total yards, (326-330). If it seemed the whole night like we weren’t going to win this game, that’s why. The team built to play in bad weather won. [/QUOTE]

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