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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 2769174, member: 289"] This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula: - On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play. - On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic. - On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down. - Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. . - If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below. - A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball. - On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins. - On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play. - A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team. - Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it. - A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team. I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc. When Syracuse had the ball: KO: WF 25, WF 25, WF 25, WF 25, WF 25, WF 25, WF 25, WF 25 Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 0 P: 28 to SU 47, 50 to WF 15, 42 to SU 46, 19 to WF 24, 60 to WF 10 , 48 to WF 6, 31 to WF 24 Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 3 FG: Good from 28, Good from 34 Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 0 XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 0 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 3 1r: 4, 11, -1, 2, 10, 4, 2, 8TD, 6, 4, 4, 1, 4, 2, -2v, 7, 14, 5TD, 1, 19, 11, 1, 1, 15, 1, 3, -1v, -1v Total: Syracuse 17 Wake Forest 13 1p: 4, 6, -6s, 2(5), 8, 0, 4, 13, 3, I, I, 6(9), 3, 4(9) Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 6 First Down Total: Syracuse 25 Wake Forest 19 2r: 18(8), 3(6), 2(4), 2(4), 2(9), 0, 2(3), 5(4), 7, 1(7), 5(12) Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 4 2p: I, I, I, I, I, 4(6), -1, 6(8), 9(3), 7(2), 14(9), 7(6), 3(9), 5(7), 12, -3 Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 8 Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 Wake Forest 12 3r: -2, 1, 4(2), 5(2), 16(17), 3(2), 1TD, 13(3), 26TD, 11(5), 1(6) Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 4 3p: I, I, 33(6), I, 13s(6), -2s, 10(11), I, 8(4), I, -6s Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 8 Third Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 12 4r: 1TD, 0, 2(1) Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 1 4p: none Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 1 Total on running plays: Syracuse 32 Wake Forest 22 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 22 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 51 Wake Forest 44 Penalties not tacked on to plays:+15, +15, +15, +15, -5, +5, +10, -5 Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 2 Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 75 Wake Forest 49 When Wake Forest had the ball: KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 35, SU 25, SU 25 Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 4 P: 52 to SU 15, 47 to SU 4, 30 to 50, 53 to SU 20, 31 to SU 43, 41 to 25 Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 4 FG: Good from 22 Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1 XP: Good, Good, Good Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 3 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 12 1r: 1, 4, 2TD, 1, 15, 3, 0, 2, Fumble, 4, -3, 4, 9, 4, 7, 9, 3, 1, 7 Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 10 1p: -3s, I, -5s, 7, -11s, -2s, 27, 6, 20TD, 11, 10, 8TD, 9, 23, Interception, 28, 17, 13, I Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 12 First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Wake Forest 22 2r: 7(9), 10(6), -2, 7(13), 14(21), 9(12), 0, 4(4), 11(10, 5(6), 4(3), 2(10, -1, 6(1) Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 11 2p: I, 20(9), -4s, 5(9), -7s, 6(15), I, I, 6(7), 15(3), I Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 4 Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 15 3r: 7(13), 17(9), 2(3), 2(1), -3 Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 2 3p: I, I, I, I, I, I, 9(6), 14(6), I, 11(19) Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 2 Third Down Total: Syracuse 11 Wake Forest 4 4r: none Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0 4p: 24(6), I Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 1 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 1 Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 Wake Forest 23 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 23 Wake Forest 19 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 37 Wake Forest 42 Penalties not tacked on to plays: +3, -5, -5, -5, +9, -10 Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 4 Game total when Wake Forest had the ball: Syracuse 42 Wake Forest 58 Overall Game Total: Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 Comments: Sterling Hofrichter’s punting record in this game is erratic. Two things have to be remembered: 1) the wind made kicking difficult and 2) Sterling went to the “Australian” style, kicking on the run and low, trying to get the ball to bounce forward. The results of such a style are inherently erratic. We missed out first five second down passes but they missed their first six third down passes. In the last two games we’ve won our offensive plays 71-41 and 75-49. We did it by passing the first time and running the second, as well dominating special teams. Our average starting point in 18 possession, per the drive chart on Cuse.com, was our 32. Theirs was at their 27. We were a total of 1,216 yards from the goal in 18 possessions. They were a total of 1,156 yards from their goal in 16 possessions. That’s a hidden offense of 140 yards in our favor. [/QUOTE]

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