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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 3208618, member: 289"] This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula: - On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play. - On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic. - On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down. - Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. . - If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below. - A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball. - On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins. - On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play. - A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team. - Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it. - A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team. I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc. When Syracuse had the ball: KO: WR 25, WR 25, WR 25, WR 25, WR 25, WR 25 Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 0 P: 51 to WF 17, 52 to WF 31, 23 to SU 44 (p), 40 to WF 25, 46 to WF 43 Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 1 FG: Good, Good, Good Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 0 XP: Good from 24, Good from 20, Good from 49, Good from 40 Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 0 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 17 Wake Forest 1 1r: 5, 15, 12, 4, 7, -2, 3, 9, 1, -2, 3, 10, 1, 8, 0, 2, 11, 11, Fumble, 4, 13TD, 4, 0, 9 Total: Syracuse 14 Wake Forest 10 1p: I, 6, I, 12TD, 10, I, -1, 8(s), 10, 5, I, 33, I Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 6 First Down Total: Syracuse 21 Wake Forest 16 2r: 1, 4(6), 0, -3, 5(1), 0, 0, 2(8), 2(6), 7(6), 3(11) Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 8 2p: 4(5), I, 12, 18, 29TD, I, I, 0(s), 9(17), -1, 9(9), -3(s), -1, I, 3 Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 9 Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 Wake Forest 17 3r: 3(1), -1, 1(8) Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 2 3p: -2(s), 6(4), Interception, 0, I, 8(5), I, I, Interception, 13(8s), 18(12), I, 19(13), 2, 6(11), 26(4), 11, I Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 9 Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 11 4r: none Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0 4p: none Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0 Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Wake Forest 20 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 21 Wake Forest 24 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 39 Wake Forest 44 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5, -5, -10, +1, -5, -5, -12, -10 Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 8 Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 57 Wake Forest 53 When Wake Forest had the ball: KO: SU 32, SU 25, SU 32, WF 49, SU 23 Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 2 P: 31 to SU 19, 48 to SU 10, 37 to SU 11 Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 3 FG: Good, Good, Good Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 3 XP: Good from 43, Good from 45, No Good from 48, Good from 43 Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 3 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 11 1r: 8, 8, 3, 0, 1, 12, 2, 1, 2, 0, 2, 2, 3, -3, 3, 6, 3 Total: Syracuse 13 Wake Forest 4 1p: 30, Interception, 13, 4, 21, 4, Interception, 6, 23, I, I, 20(s,p), 27, 75TD, I, 13, 8, I, I, I, I, 25, I, 15, 5, I, 6, I Total: Syracuse 12 Wake Forest 16 First Down Total: Syracuse 25 Wake Forest 20 2r: 1(2), 1(7), 4, 0, -1, 2(8), 5(6), 19TD, 4(2), 3, (3(7), 6, 1(4), 9, 2(8), 12(7) Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 8 2p: 5(2), 8(9), I, I, -6(s), I, 5(4), 7, I, 8(7), I, I, 14, 11, 4(11), Fumble-TD Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 8 Second Down Total: Syracuse 16 Wake Forest 16 3r: 4(1), Fumble, 2, 3(6), 3(1), 1(3), 10(1) Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 3 3p: I, 11(90, I, I, 10(6), Interception, 8(3), 23, I, 8(7), 18(4), I, 4(6s) Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 6 Third Down Total: Syracuse 11 Wake Forest 9 4r: 0 Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0 4p: I, 2TD Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 1 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 1 Total on running plays: Syracuse 26 Wake Forest 15 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 28 Wake Forest 31 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 54 Wake Forest 46 Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, -5, -5, -5 Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 1 Game total when Wake Forest had the ball: Syracuse 61 Wake Forest 58 Overall Game Total: Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 Comments: Those numbers define a heck of a game. Many people dismissed the game as “meaningless” and didn’t bother to show up. They missed one of the great games in Dome history. Our kicking game, which had been so important to the 10-3 season last year but had frayed a little down the stretch this year (26-13 against Duke and Louisville), had a strong finale (17-1). The only misfire was a punt that actually went 38 yards to Wake’s 41 with no return but there was 15 yard personal foul penalty that set it back to the SU 44. We’ll miss you, Sterling and Sean. Suddenly we’re returning kick-offs. Three of Wake’s five kick-offs wound up with us having the ball on our 33, our 32 and their 49. And that’s with Jawhar Jordan sitting out. SU’s average starting point was our 37. Wake started, on average at their 25. Strange that we were 14-10 in first down runs, including 5 plays for 43 yards in the first quarter but only 3-8 on second down runs with three no gains and a 3 yard loss. We did extremely well on defense against first down runs, (13-4) but not as well on second down (8-8). GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR When SYRACUSE had the ball: KO: 4-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 7-1 + 4-1 + 1-2 + 5-0 + 3-1 + 5-0 + 5-3 + 3-4 + 6-0 = 50-12 P: 6-0 + 3-2 + 9-0 + 5-0 + 5-0 + 4-3 + 6-1 + 5-1 + 4-0 + 3-4 + 2-2 + 4-1 = 56-14 FG: 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 1-1 + 2-1 + 1-1 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 4-0 = 18-3 XP: 3-0 + 2-1 + 0-0 + 7-0 + 5-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-0 + 3-0 + 7-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 = 39-1 Kicking plays total: 14-0 + 9-3 + 14-0 + 20-1 + 16-1 + 7-6 + 15-2 + 11-3 + 14-0 + 15-7 + 11-6 +17-1 = 163-30 1r: 5-13 + 8-3 + 4-7 + 9-16 + 8-5 + 2-11 + 5-8 + 8-13 + 6-7 + 16-7 + 18-9 + 14-10 = 103-109 1p: 3-8 + 10-10 + 6-9 + 6-5 + 7-9 + 11-8 + 3-17 + 5-7 + 8-9 + 1-3 + 7-2 + 7-6 = 74-93 First Down Total: 8-21 + 18-13 + 10-16 +15-21 + 15-14 + 13-19 + 8-25 + 13-20 + 14-16 + 17-10 + 25-11 + 21-16 = 177-202 2r: 10-1 + 3-4 + 5-8 + 5-7+ 7-5 + 4-7 + 0-2 + 6-5 + 2-9 + 9-5 + 8-12 + 3-8 = 62-73 2p: 6-10 + 6-8 + 2-8 + 11-6 + 8-4 + 8-6 + 11-13 + 7-9 + 7-6 + 2-3 + 4-2 + 6-9 = 78-84 Second Down Total: 16-11 + 9-12 + 7-16 + 16-13 + 15-9 + 12-13 + 11-15 + 13-14 + 9-15 + 11-8 + 12-14 + 9-17 = 140-157 3r: 5-5 + 3-4 + 2-5 + 3-3 + 2-3 + 2-2 + 1-1 + 4-2 + 2-5 + 1-3 + 3-2 + 1-2 = 29-37 3p: 4-5 + 2-5 + 2-10 + 5-5 + 3-8 + 3-9 + 5-10 + 8-9 + 5-5 + 3-5 + 2-7 + 8-9 = 50-87 Third Down Total: 9-10 + 5-9 + 4-15 + 8-8 + 5-11 + 5-11 + 6-11 + 12-11 + 7-10 + 4-8 + 5-9 + 9-11 = 79-124 4r: 2-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-2 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-3 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 = 10-7 4p: 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1= 1-1 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 0-0= 1-11 Fourth Down Total: 2-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 1-2 + 1-1 + 2-0 + 0-1+ 2-4 + 1-0 + 1-2 +0-0 = 11-18 Total on running plays: 22-20 + 14-11 + 11-21 +18-26 + 18-15 + 9-20 + 8-11 + 18-20 + 11-24 + 27-15 + 30-23 + 18-20 = 204-226 Total on passing plays: 13-24 + 18-26 + 10-29 + 22-16 + 18-21 + 22-24 + 19-40 + 20-26 + 21-21 + 6-11 + 13-13 + 21-24 = 203-275 Total on plays from scrimmage: 35-44 + 32-37 + 21-50 + 40-42 + 36-36 + 31-44 + 27-51 + 38-46 + 32-45 + 33-26 + 43-36 + 39-44 = 407-501 Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4 + 2-4 + 3-4 + 2-6 + 1-3 + 2-7 + 3-5 + 4-6 + 2-4 + 0-1 + 1-6 + 1-8 = 21-58 Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 49-48 + 43-44 + 38-54 + 62-49 + 53-40 + 40-57 + 45-58 + 53-55 + 48-49 + 48-34 + 55-48 + 57-53 = 591-589 When OPPONENT had the ball: KO: 0-1 + 4-6 + 0-7 + 2-3 + 1-0 + 0-5 + 0-5 + 0-6 + 1-9 + 0-3 + 6-3 + 3-2 = 17-50 P: 2-6 + 2-1 + 3-3 + 1-3 + 5-5 + 1-4 + 2-5 + 2-3 + 1-2 + 2-4 + 0-3 + 0-3 = 21-42 FG: 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 1-3 = 3-15 XP: 0-0 + 0-9 + 0-5 + 1-4 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-3 + 1-4 + 1-7 + 0-0 + 0-8 + 0-3 = 3-44 Kicking plays total: 2-8 + 6-16 + 4-17 + 4-10 + 6-6 + 1-13 + 2-15 + 3-13 + 3-19 + 3-9 + 6-14 + 4-11 = 44-151 1r: 10-5 + 9-17 + 6-13 + 10-8 + 7-7 + 9-5 + 12-11 + 11-11 + 11-21 + 11-6 + 7-14 + 13-4 = 116-122 1p: 11-8 + 9-7 + 7-8 + 10-7 + 6-4 + 3-12 + 6-6 + 5-8 + 1-4 + 9-8 + 4-7 + 12-16 = 83-95 First Down Total: 21-13 + 18-24 + 13-21 + 20-15 + 13-11 + 12-17 + 18-17 + 16-19 + 12-25 + 20-14 + 11-21 + 25-20 = 199-217 2r: 5-2 + 5-7 + 1-6 + 2-6 + 8-3 + 6-7 + 5-6 + 4-10 + 5-15 + 4-11 + 4-10 + 8-8 = 57-91 2p: 12-6 + 6-7 + 9-7 + 9-7 + 9-3 + 6-1 + 10-5 + 7-6 + 2-2 + 10-2 + 3-3 + 8-8 = 91-57 Second Down Total: 17-8 + 11-14 + 10-13 + 11-13 + 17-6 + 12-8 + 15-11 + 11-16 + 7-17 + 14-13 + 7-13 + 16-16 = 148-148 3r: 5-1 + 0-4 + 1-2 + 2-2 + 3-0 + 1-2 + 1-3 + 1-4 + 5-5 + 6-2 + 0-7 + 4-3 = 29-35 3p: 8-2 + 4-7 + 8-3 + 7-5 + 11-3 + 10-2 + 9-8 + 6-4 + 0-2 + 9-3 + 3-1 + 7-6 = 82-46 Third Down Total: 13-3 + 4-11 + 9-5 + 9-7= 14-3 + 11-4 + 10-11 + 7-8 + 5-7 + 15-5 + 3-8 + 11-9 = 111-81 4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 = 4-3 4p: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-1 + 3-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-1 + 0-0 + 1-1= 10-3 Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 4-1 + 3-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-1 + 3-1 + 0-0 + 2-1 = 14-6 Total on running plays: 20-8 + 14-28 + 8-21 + 16-16 + 18-10 +16-14 + 18-20 + 16-27 + 21-42 + 22-19 + 11-31 + 26-15 = 206-251 Total on passing plays: 32-16 + 19-21 + 24-18 + 28-20 + 29-10 + 19-15 + 25-19 + 19-18 + 3-8 + 30-14 + 10-11 + 28-31 = 266-201 Total on plays from scrimmage: 52-24 + 33-49 + 32-39 + 44-36 + 47-20 + 35-29 + 43-39 + 35-45 + 24-50 + 52-33 + 21-42 + 54-46 = 472-452 Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-4 + 0-3 + 3-3 + 3-4 + 4-1 + 2-1 + 2 -2 + 5-2 + 1-1 + 4-2 + 3-0 + 3-1 = 31-24 Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 55-36 + 39-68 + 39-59 + 51-50 + 57-27 + 38-43 + 47-56 + 43-60 + 28-70 + 59-44 + 30-56 + 61-58 = 547-627 Overall game total: 104-84 + 82-112 + 77-113 + 113-99 + 110-67 + 78-100 + 92-114 + 96-115 +76-119 + 107-78 + 85-104 +118-111 = 1138-1216 Comments: The second down defensive totals are interesting: 57-91 against runs and 91-57 against passes for a net result of 148=148. Overall, we are 407-501 on offensive plays from scrimmage, which reflects the problems we’ve had in our offensive line. That’s got to be turned around if we are to make something of this season – and maybe it finally is happening. It may not seem like it but we are actually 472-452 on defensive plays from scrimmage. We are still pretty good on third and fourth down defense, (125-87) but have lost the knack we had of picking up first downs on such plays on offense, (90-142). We needed to avoid having to pass the ball on fourth down (1-11). I went through the play-by-plays for all 12 games and charted the penalties for each team, dividing them into 5 yard penalties, 10 yarders and 15 yarders. This includes penalties tacked on to plays and those that negated or prevented plays. I included penalties that were declined because they were still in fractions. There were two intentional grounding calls, which in college result in the ball being placed down where the QB threw it and in the pros produce a 10 yard penalty. I counted them as 10 yarders. Here are the results: SU was called for 37 five yard penalties, 17 ten yard penalties and 21 fifteen yard penalties. Our opposition was called for 30 five yard penalties, 5 ten yard penalties and 16 fifteen yard penalties. Obviously, we aren’t the only ones making mistakes. I would have guess that we had a lot more five yard penalties than the other team. We did have a lot more 10 yarders. That’s mostly holding, which can be attributed to our offensive line problems. The fact that we got only 5 such penalties against the other team underscores the sub-par year our defensive line had. We got 5 more fifteen yarders, the majority of which were personal fouls. 21 such penalties is almost two a game, way too many. Totaling up the yardage, (including potential yardage) from these penalties, we had (37x5 + 17x10 + 21x15 =) 670 yards. They had (30x5 + 5x10 + 16x15=) 440. That’s 230 extra yards for the other team, not even considering yardage negated or the strategical differences created by the penalty yardage. HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only) 2016 Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27 Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33 Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21 Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8 Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13 Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29 Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1 Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9 Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46 Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32 Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49 Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11 TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games. 2017 Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67 Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6 Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7 Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23 Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19 Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1 Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2 Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33 Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18 Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5 Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4 Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10 TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of12 games 2018 Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13 Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74 Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36 Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26 Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16 Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2 Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2 Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17 Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10 Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41 Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13 Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14 Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37 TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games 2019 Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20 Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30 Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36 Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14 Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43 Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22 Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22 Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19 Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43 Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29 Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19 Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7 Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 4,824 plays, (49.6%) and 21 games, (42.9%). The opposition has won 4,903 plays and 28 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 79 more plays than we have in 49 games, an average of 1.6 plays a game. [/QUOTE]

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