SWC75
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
Note: I us the play by play from Cuse.com which did not design ate scrambles for the North Carolina or Pittsburgh games so those plays were recorded here as runs since I couldn’t tell if they were planned QB runs or not. (ESPN didn’t note scrambles, either)
When SYRACUSE had the ball:
KO: WF 25, WF 19, Onside kick failed
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 1
P: 50 to WF 36, 28 to WF 13, 31 to WF 43, 53 to WF 15, 32 to WF 29
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 2
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 3
1r: 0, 7, 9, -6, 14, 8, -2, 5, -2, 13, 7, -4
Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 5
1p: 0, 1(s), I, 3, -8(s), INTERCEPTION-TD, 3, I, 3, 3, 5, 3, 3(4)
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 11
First Down Total: Syracuse 9 Wake Forest 16
2r: 4(20, -2, 14(7), 9(12), 3(7), 2, 18(5), -2
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 4
2p: 4, 7, 11(3), 6(1), 5(24), 4(16), 21TD, I, I, Interceptions, 8, 4(7)
Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 10
3r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
3p: I, 3, I, -11(s), I, I, 3(4), I, I, 31(3), 3TD
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 9
Third Down Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 9
4r: 5(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Wake Forest 9
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 26
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 22 Wake Forest 35
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -15, -15, +10, -5, -10 Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 4
Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 30 Wake Forest 42
When WAKE FOREST had the ball:
KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 32, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 6
P: 21 to WF 36, 43 to SU 21, 45 to SU 20
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 2
FG: Good from 33
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 14
1r: 3, 12, 4, 4, 10, 1TD, 9, 0, 6, 11, 20TD, 2, 7, -2, 2, 3, 16, 5, -5p, 3, -2, 2, 3
Total: Syracuse 11 Wake Forest 12
1p: I, 3(s), I, 15(s), I, I, I, I,11, 15, I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Wake Forest 3
First Down Total: Syracuse 20 Wake Forest 15
2r: 4(7), 4, 11(7), 0, 0, 3(4), 0, 3(8), 0, 5TD, 5(17), 6(12), 1(13), 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 6
2p: 2(6), 5, 4(s), 14, 8, 12, 5, 6, 22(18), 12(11)
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 14
3r: 7(2), 3(1), -1, 0, -5, 4(6)
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 3
3p: 4(3), 20(6), -7(s), 8(5), 10, I, I, -7(s), 80TD, 7(4), 12(12), I
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 10
4r: 2(1), 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 1
4p: I, I
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 23 Wake Forest 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 16 Wake Forest 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 39 Wake Forest 40
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -10, +6, +10, +15, -10, -7, -5 Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 3
Game total when WAKE FOREST had the ball: Syracuse 46 Wake Forest 57
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99
Comments: I expected this game would be a blow-out in terms of ‘winning plays’ but it really wasn’t. Our defense has improved as the year went along and we won 39 of the 79 Wake plays from scrimmage. We also won 12 of our 21 running plays. The problem is our passing game: we were 10-26 on our passing plays, including two interceptions, one a pick six off a lob that really blew the game open. It was the first game this year when we entered the fourth quarter without a chance to win. But we weren’t blown off the ball in the way we were against Duke and Liberty.
Thanks to the turnovers and a somewhat mediocre punting game by our standards, We were at a rare disadvantage in field position at the beginning of drives. Our starting position wasn’t bad: it averaged at our own 29, with 994 yards to score on 14 possessions. But Wake averaged their own 36 with 829 yards to go on 13 possessions. Adjust their possessions to 14 and that’s a difference of 893, an adventage of 101 hidden yards for a team that outgained us 221-437 anyway.
Winning 76 plays to 99 for them makes this a-23 game. The most similar games in Dino Babers’ tenure here are:
2016: Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21 We lost 20-45
2017: Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23 We lost 26-35
2017: Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19 We lost 25-33
2017: Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18 We lost 24-27
2019: Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22 We lost 10-16
2019: Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22 We lost 20-27
2019: Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19 We lost 17-35
2019: Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19 We lost 34-56
We’ve had a lot of games like that recently, where we can compete but not for the whole game. A bad quarter, often the 4th, decides it. In this game it took giving up a TD just before the half, an 80 yard broken overage play, a pick 6 and a drive aided by two big penalties on the defense and we were out of it, even though we won a lot of plays the rest of the game.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
Note: I us the play by play from Cuse.com which did not design ate scrambles for the North Carolina or Pittsburgh games so those plays were recorded here as runs since I couldn’t tell if they were planned QB runs or not. (ESPN didn’t note scrambles, either)
When SYRACUSE had the ball:
KO: WF 25, WF 19, Onside kick failed
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 1
P: 50 to WF 36, 28 to WF 13, 31 to WF 43, 53 to WF 15, 32 to WF 29
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 2
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 3
1r: 0, 7, 9, -6, 14, 8, -2, 5, -2, 13, 7, -4
Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 5
1p: 0, 1(s), I, 3, -8(s), INTERCEPTION-TD, 3, I, 3, 3, 5, 3, 3(4)
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 11
First Down Total: Syracuse 9 Wake Forest 16
2r: 4(20, -2, 14(7), 9(12), 3(7), 2, 18(5), -2
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 4
2p: 4, 7, 11(3), 6(1), 5(24), 4(16), 21TD, I, I, Interceptions, 8, 4(7)
Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 10
3r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
3p: I, 3, I, -11(s), I, I, 3(4), I, I, 31(3), 3TD
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 9
Third Down Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 9
4r: 5(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Wake Forest 9
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 26
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 22 Wake Forest 35
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -15, -15, +10, -5, -10 Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 4
Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 30 Wake Forest 42
When WAKE FOREST had the ball:
KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 32, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 6
P: 21 to WF 36, 43 to SU 21, 45 to SU 20
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 2
FG: Good from 33
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 14
1r: 3, 12, 4, 4, 10, 1TD, 9, 0, 6, 11, 20TD, 2, 7, -2, 2, 3, 16, 5, -5p, 3, -2, 2, 3
Total: Syracuse 11 Wake Forest 12
1p: I, 3(s), I, 15(s), I, I, I, I,11, 15, I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Wake Forest 3
First Down Total: Syracuse 20 Wake Forest 15
2r: 4(7), 4, 11(7), 0, 0, 3(4), 0, 3(8), 0, 5TD, 5(17), 6(12), 1(13), 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 6
2p: 2(6), 5, 4(s), 14, 8, 12, 5, 6, 22(18), 12(11)
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 14
3r: 7(2), 3(1), -1, 0, -5, 4(6)
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 3
3p: 4(3), 20(6), -7(s), 8(5), 10, I, I, -7(s), 80TD, 7(4), 12(12), I
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 10
4r: 2(1), 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 1
4p: I, I
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 23 Wake Forest 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 16 Wake Forest 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 39 Wake Forest 40
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -10, +6, +10, +15, -10, -7, -5 Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 3
Game total when WAKE FOREST had the ball: Syracuse 46 Wake Forest 57
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99
Comments: I expected this game would be a blow-out in terms of ‘winning plays’ but it really wasn’t. Our defense has improved as the year went along and we won 39 of the 79 Wake plays from scrimmage. We also won 12 of our 21 running plays. The problem is our passing game: we were 10-26 on our passing plays, including two interceptions, one a pick six off a lob that really blew the game open. It was the first game this year when we entered the fourth quarter without a chance to win. But we weren’t blown off the ball in the way we were against Duke and Liberty.
Thanks to the turnovers and a somewhat mediocre punting game by our standards, We were at a rare disadvantage in field position at the beginning of drives. Our starting position wasn’t bad: it averaged at our own 29, with 994 yards to score on 14 possessions. But Wake averaged their own 36 with 829 yards to go on 13 possessions. Adjust their possessions to 14 and that’s a difference of 893, an adventage of 101 hidden yards for a team that outgained us 221-437 anyway.
Winning 76 plays to 99 for them makes this a-23 game. The most similar games in Dino Babers’ tenure here are:
2016: Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21 We lost 20-45
2017: Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23 We lost 26-35
2017: Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19 We lost 25-33
2017: Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18 We lost 24-27
2019: Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22 We lost 10-16
2019: Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22 We lost 20-27
2019: Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19 We lost 17-35
2019: Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19 We lost 34-56
We’ve had a lot of games like that recently, where we can compete but not for the whole game. A bad quarter, often the 4th, decides it. In this game it took giving up a TD just before the half, an 80 yard broken overage play, a pick 6 and a drive aided by two big penalties on the defense and we were out of it, even though we won a lot of plays the rest of the game.
