SWC75
Bored Historian
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: SU25, SU25, SU25, SU25, SU25, SU20, SU25, SU25, SU1 = 196/9 = SU22 with 704 yards to go (-143)
KO: WF25, WF25, WF25, WF25, WF25, WF25
Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 0
P: 15 to SU44
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 11 Wake Forest 1
1r: 9, 5, 4, 1, 2, 6, 3, 2, 1, 3(6), 4, 3, 5, 5, 5, 3, 2, 1, 7, 8, 0, 9, 1, 3, 4, -1v
Total: Syracuse 14 Wake Forest 11
1p: 0(1), I, 37TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 2
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Wake Forest 13
2r: 5(6), 7(2), 4(6), 2(8),4, 3, 10(8), 3(9), 2(3), 2(6), 5(5), -3, 23(7), 5(9), 6(3), 4, 1(2), -1, 2(9), 1(7), 5(6), -1v
Total: Syracuse 13 Wake Forest 9
2p: 4(9), 17(12), 15(5), 47TD, 13TD
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 1
Second Down Total: Syracuse 17 Wake Forest 10
3r: 3(1), 3(2), 12(4), 1TD, 3(4), 12(2), 15(7), 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 1
3p: 35TD, 11(6), 9(6), 7(6), I, Interception, 29(6), I, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 12 Wake Forest 5
4r: 3(1), 12(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 36 Wake Forest 21
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 7
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 46 Wake Forest 28
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +15 Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 2
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 58 Wake Forest 31
Big Plays: 35yd TD pass, 23yd run, 47yd TD pass, 24yd pass, 37yd TD pass, Intrception (at the goal line)
When Wake Forest had the ball:
Drive Starts: WF25, WF25, WF25, WF25, SU33, WF25, WF25, SU44 = 239/8 = WF30 with 561 yards to go (+143)
KO: SU25, SU25, SU25, SU25, SU25, SU25
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 6
P: 43 to SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1
FG: Good from 30, No good from 38
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 1
XP: Good, Good, Try for 2 - Good, Try for 2 – No Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 11
1r: 3(5), 8, 10, 12, 5, 2, -1, 38(p), 2, 13, 2, 4(9)
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 7
1p: I, 48, 8, 16TD, 14, 6, I, 28, -6, 59, 16, 13, -3(6)
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 9
First Down Total: Syracuse Wake Forest
2r: 4(2), 3(2), 3(4), 2(5), 0, 7(8), 5(11), 7(13), 5(8), 1(5)
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 6
2p: I, 9, 6(16), 9TD
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 2
Second Down Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 8
3r: 0, 2(1), 2(1), 9(6)
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 3
3p: I, I, 2(5), I, 9(6), I, 0(s)
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 9
4r: 16(1p), 6(3)
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 0
4p: Interception
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Wake Forest 16
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 34
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, -5, -5, +15 Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 2
Game total when Wake Forest had the ball: Syracuse 24 Wake Forest 47
Big Plays: 48yd pass, 28yd pass, Interception, 59yd pass, 38yd run(p) 34yd punt return
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 82 Wake Forest 78
Comments: There were two punts in the game, one for each team. Theirs came on their first possession and ours on our penultimate possession, (we were just running the clock out on the last).
We limited Wake to just 8 possessions for the game, (a dozen is more typical). That was a good thing as they scored 4 touchdowns and attempted two field goals, making one in those possessions. The others were their initial punt and that interception at the goal line at the end. We didn’t do so badly in our nine possessions: 5TDs, (despite a significant field position deficit), an interception, that punt and the end of both halves. 9 touchdowns in 17 possessions makes for an exciting game.
I’ve read that Brady Denaburg led the country in touchbacks coming into this game. He still does.
This was +4 game (82-78). Here are the most comparable games in the Babers Era:
2017 Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6 We lost 23-30
2017 Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7 We won 41-17
2017 Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1 We won 27-24
2018 Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2 We lost 37-44
2019 Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7 We won 39-30
2020 Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6 We won 37-20
2021 Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7 We won 21-6
2022 Syracuse 99 Purdue 92 = +7 We won 32-29
2022 Syracuse 85 Minnesota 84 = +1 We lost 20-28
2023 Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 73 = +7 We won 28-13
2023 Syracuse 76 Georgia Tech 73 = +3 We lost 22-31
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: SU25, SU25, SU25, SU25, SU25, SU20, SU25, SU25, SU1 = 196/9 = SU22 with 704 yards to go (-143)
KO: WF25, WF25, WF25, WF25, WF25, WF25
Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 0
P: 15 to SU44
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 11 Wake Forest 1
1r: 9, 5, 4, 1, 2, 6, 3, 2, 1, 3(6), 4, 3, 5, 5, 5, 3, 2, 1, 7, 8, 0, 9, 1, 3, 4, -1v
Total: Syracuse 14 Wake Forest 11
1p: 0(1), I, 37TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 2
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Wake Forest 13
2r: 5(6), 7(2), 4(6), 2(8),4, 3, 10(8), 3(9), 2(3), 2(6), 5(5), -3, 23(7), 5(9), 6(3), 4, 1(2), -1, 2(9), 1(7), 5(6), -1v
Total: Syracuse 13 Wake Forest 9
2p: 4(9), 17(12), 15(5), 47TD, 13TD
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 1
Second Down Total: Syracuse 17 Wake Forest 10
3r: 3(1), 3(2), 12(4), 1TD, 3(4), 12(2), 15(7), 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 1
3p: 35TD, 11(6), 9(6), 7(6), I, Interception, 29(6), I, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 12 Wake Forest 5
4r: 3(1), 12(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 36 Wake Forest 21
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 7
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 46 Wake Forest 28
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +15 Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 2
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 58 Wake Forest 31
Big Plays: 35yd TD pass, 23yd run, 47yd TD pass, 24yd pass, 37yd TD pass, Intrception (at the goal line)
When Wake Forest had the ball:
Drive Starts: WF25, WF25, WF25, WF25, SU33, WF25, WF25, SU44 = 239/8 = WF30 with 561 yards to go (+143)
KO: SU25, SU25, SU25, SU25, SU25, SU25
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 6
P: 43 to SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1
FG: Good from 30, No good from 38
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 1
XP: Good, Good, Try for 2 - Good, Try for 2 – No Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 11
1r: 3(5), 8, 10, 12, 5, 2, -1, 38(p), 2, 13, 2, 4(9)
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 7
1p: I, 48, 8, 16TD, 14, 6, I, 28, -6, 59, 16, 13, -3(6)
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 9
First Down Total: Syracuse Wake Forest
2r: 4(2), 3(2), 3(4), 2(5), 0, 7(8), 5(11), 7(13), 5(8), 1(5)
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 6
2p: I, 9, 6(16), 9TD
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 2
Second Down Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 8
3r: 0, 2(1), 2(1), 9(6)
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 3
3p: I, I, 2(5), I, 9(6), I, 0(s)
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 9
4r: 16(1p), 6(3)
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 0
4p: Interception
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Wake Forest 16
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 34
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, -5, -5, +15 Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 2
Game total when Wake Forest had the ball: Syracuse 24 Wake Forest 47
Big Plays: 48yd pass, 28yd pass, Interception, 59yd pass, 38yd run(p) 34yd punt return
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 82 Wake Forest 78
Comments: There were two punts in the game, one for each team. Theirs came on their first possession and ours on our penultimate possession, (we were just running the clock out on the last).
We limited Wake to just 8 possessions for the game, (a dozen is more typical). That was a good thing as they scored 4 touchdowns and attempted two field goals, making one in those possessions. The others were their initial punt and that interception at the goal line at the end. We didn’t do so badly in our nine possessions: 5TDs, (despite a significant field position deficit), an interception, that punt and the end of both halves. 9 touchdowns in 17 possessions makes for an exciting game.
I’ve read that Brady Denaburg led the country in touchbacks coming into this game. He still does.
This was +4 game (82-78). Here are the most comparable games in the Babers Era:
2017 Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6 We lost 23-30
2017 Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7 We won 41-17
2017 Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1 We won 27-24
2018 Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2 We lost 37-44
2019 Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7 We won 39-30
2020 Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6 We won 37-20
2021 Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7 We won 21-6
2022 Syracuse 99 Purdue 92 = +7 We won 32-29
2022 Syracuse 85 Minnesota 84 = +1 We lost 20-28
2023 Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 73 = +7 We won 28-13
2023 Syracuse 76 Georgia Tech 73 = +3 We lost 22-31