SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’m going to use the same system used last year to break down games from the perspective of how many times did each team get what they wanted from a play and deny the other team what they wanted. It’s basically an attempt to see if one team physically dominated the game, in which case they’d win most of the plays, or was the game decided on “big” plays, mistakes and breaks, as most games are. If you physically dominated a team, you have a chance to win a lot of games if the other things at least even out. If you weren’t physically dominated in a loss, that loss doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t win a bunch of other games on your schedule. Basically, the problems can be fixed on the practice field, not the recruiting trail or the weight room.
The formula is this: If the offense on first down, can get at least a third of the way to a first down or on second down can get at least halfway to a first down, (always round the yardage needed up), or on third or fourth down can get a first down, they won the play. If they didn’t the defense won the play. Any offensive score is a win for the offense. Any turnover is a win for the defense. If a penalty is part of the play, the yardage gained or lost just gets figured into the play’s result. Penalties that negate a play or dead ball fouls are counted separately. If a team runs the “victory” play at the end of a half or game, (it’s always a two yard loss), their goal is to maintain possession of the ball while the clock runs, not to gain yardage. So any victory play where they do that is a win for them , despite the lost yardage.
Any successful placekick is a win for the kicking team. An unsuccessful kick is a win for the defending team. Punts are evaluated by their net result only. A punt from the 50 yard line into the end zone is a 30 yard punt, not a 50 yard punt. A 53 yard punt that produces a 52 yard return is a 1 yard punt. Any punt that results in a net change in the line of scrimmage of 40 yards downfield or that results in the other team starting from their own twenty yard line or closer to their goal line is a win for the kicking team. The one recent new wrinkle is that kickoff touchbacks now come out to the 25 yard line. Any kickoff that results in the receiving team starting their drive from the 25 yard line or closer to their own goal line is a win for the kicking team.
I’m going to chart each game in the following manner: For each team, I’ll list the result of each kickoff, (where the other team started their possession after the kickoff), the net yardage of each punt, (if they never got the punt off note whether it was blocked or bobbled and the net yardage of the play) and the yard line it wound up on, the result of each extra point, (I’ll note if it was a two point attempt) and field goal attempt. (I’ll also note any conversion returned for two points: I don’t think we’ve had one in our games since Pitt in 1990). Then I’ll record what happened on each first down run, first down pass, second down run and pass, third down run and pass and fourth down run and pass. If the yardage needed for a first down or a score in a goal to go situation is other than 10, I’ll note that unless the play resulted in a loss, no gain or an incomplete pass, in which case nit was a win for the defense regardless of the yardage needed. If it was a ”victory play” I’ll put a ’V’ next to it. Sacks are reported under passes, not runs, just by the negative yardage. If a quarterback scrambled for positive yardage, that’s a run simply because that’s how the ESPN play-by-play, which I am using, would record it.
I’ll note the number of penalties that were not tacked onto the play and the turnovers separately. Each line will have a “score” at the end of it, stating how many plays in each category each team won. There will be a grand total at the end, followed by a brief analysis of the stats and the game.
10/13/13: I’m going to make a minor but necessary change. I’ve been keeping track of penalties that negated plays, rather than being tacked onto them in a separate category. I’ve then been counting all such penalties as “lost” plays when the penalized team had the ball simply because that was the page upon which I recorded this stat. I realized I should be counting the defensive penalties on the other page. So I will separate them out on each page and have adjusted the totals for past games accordingly.
When Syracuse had the ball:
KO- WF23, WF23, WF34 (SU 2 WF 1)
P- 22(WF37), 51(WF21), 34(SU49), 54(WF27), 49(WF18), 31(WF20), 30(WF9), 31(WF38), 44(WF35), 23(WF13), 44(WF23) (SU 8 WF 5)
FG none
XP Good, Blocked (SU 1 WF 1)
Total for kicking game: Syracuse 11 Wake Forest 5
1st rush- 11, 3, 2, 8, 0, 0, 5, 0, 2, 6, 11, 8, 2, 6TD, 1, 67, 7, 3, 11, 1, 3, -1V (SU 10 WF 12)
1st pass- 15, m5, 2, 0, 8, 13, 5, 25TD, I (SU 6 WF 3)
First Down total: Syracuse 16 Wake Forest 15
2nd rush- 4(8), -3, 8(13), -5, 4, 3(4), 1(2), 1(2), -1, 7(3), 5, 10(9), 0, -1V (SU 9 WF 5)
2nd pass- 3(7), I 5(5), 7(5), I, I, 15(8), I, 6(7), 2(9) (SU 4 WF 6)
Second Down total: Syracuse 13 Wake Forest 11
3rd run- 3(1), 1(1), 2(1), 4(9), 3(1), -2, -1V (SU 5 WF 2)
3rd pass- I, I, I, I, I, -8, 8(8), 43(13), 2(11), I, 2(5), 3(6) (SU 2 WF 10)
Third Down total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 12
4th run- 2(3) (SU 0 WF 1)
4th pass-none
Fourth Down total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1
Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 36 Wake Forest 39
Penalties: SU- 5,5,5,5 WF- none (SU 0 WF 4)
Turnovers: none
Total for penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 4
Total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 47, Wake Forest 48
When Wake Forest had the ball:
KO- SU 25 (SU 0 WF 1)
P- 44(S24), 37(SU22), 49 (SU10), 29(SU18), 42(SU33), 26(SU20), 33(SU20), 45(SU27), 41(SU16), 33(SU9), 48SU35), 39(SU32), (SU 2 WF 10)
FG-none
XP- none
Total for kicking game: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 11
1st rush- 9, 5, 6 (SU 0 WF 3))
1st pass- 1, I, -1, 13(15), 7, I, 5, 6, I, I, I, I, I, I, 3, I, I, I, I, 9, I, I, -10 (SU19 WF 4)
First Down total: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 7
2nd rush- 4, 5(4), 0, 3, 14, 1(1), -2, 2, 5, 9 (SU 6 WF 4)
2nd pass- 3(9), 14(11), -1, I, 5(25), I, 17, I, 6(7), I, I 4, 4, I, 1(1), I (SU 12 WF 4)
Second Down total: Syracuse 18 Wake Forest 8
3rd run- 0, 4(1), -2V, 1(2) (SU 2 WF 2)
3rd pass- 10(11), I, I, 8(20), 23, I, I, I, 15(6), I, I, 23(1), -11, I (SU 11 WF 3)
Third Down total: Syracuse 13 Wake Forest 5
4th run- none
4th pass- I (SU 1 WF 0)
Fourth Down total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0
Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 51 Wake Forest 20
Penalties: SU- 5, 11 WF- 5, 5, 15, 10, 5, 10, 15 (SU 7 WF 2)
Turnovers: Interception (SU 1 WF 0)
Total for penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 2
Total when Wake Forest had the ball: Syracuse 61 Wake Forest 33
Overall kicking game total: Syracuse 13 Wake Forest 16
Overall plays from scrimmage total: Syracuse 87 Wake Forest 59
Overall penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 8 Pittsburgh 6
Game Total: Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81
Comments: It was my perception that, as in the Georgia Tech game, we were passing the ball too much in the first half. In six quarters, we gained 290 yards and scored zero points. Passing is not what we are good at. But we actually ran the ball 15 of 25 times in the first half, (60%). The problem is, we didn’t run it very well, ‘wining’ only 5 of those 15 plays. But in that opening drive of the second half we ran the ball 11 times in 14 plays, 79%) and the three passes were all complete- for a total of 36 yards. Every team wants to achieve balance but that doesn’t mean that you run and pass the ball an equal or comparable number of times. It means you have an equal capability to do both. Most teams do one better than the other and they succeed when they do what they do best and then use that to set up what they don’t do as well. Last year’s team was a strong passing team with a running game full of unknown quantities. We used the pass to spread out the defense and create opening for our young running backs. This year’s team is clearly better at running the football but we can pass well when the defense commits to stopping our running game. This team needs to come out running because it’s what we are best at and then pick our spots to throw.
Wake Forest, on the other hand, was not a balanced team at all. Even with their star receiver being lost for the game early on, they passé down first down 23 times, (to 3 runs), on second down 16 times, (to 10) and on third down 14 times (to 4). And prolific passing was not productive passing: Syracuse won 42 of 54 Wake Forest passing plays, and with that, the game.
It was a game dominated by punting and both were very good. 8 of Riley Dixon’s 11 punts were either 40+ yards or gave Wake the ball on its own 20 or less. But Alexander Kimal was even better for the Deacs, doing the same 10 times in 12 punts.
The formula is this: If the offense on first down, can get at least a third of the way to a first down or on second down can get at least halfway to a first down, (always round the yardage needed up), or on third or fourth down can get a first down, they won the play. If they didn’t the defense won the play. Any offensive score is a win for the offense. Any turnover is a win for the defense. If a penalty is part of the play, the yardage gained or lost just gets figured into the play’s result. Penalties that negate a play or dead ball fouls are counted separately. If a team runs the “victory” play at the end of a half or game, (it’s always a two yard loss), their goal is to maintain possession of the ball while the clock runs, not to gain yardage. So any victory play where they do that is a win for them , despite the lost yardage.
Any successful placekick is a win for the kicking team. An unsuccessful kick is a win for the defending team. Punts are evaluated by their net result only. A punt from the 50 yard line into the end zone is a 30 yard punt, not a 50 yard punt. A 53 yard punt that produces a 52 yard return is a 1 yard punt. Any punt that results in a net change in the line of scrimmage of 40 yards downfield or that results in the other team starting from their own twenty yard line or closer to their goal line is a win for the kicking team. The one recent new wrinkle is that kickoff touchbacks now come out to the 25 yard line. Any kickoff that results in the receiving team starting their drive from the 25 yard line or closer to their own goal line is a win for the kicking team.
I’m going to chart each game in the following manner: For each team, I’ll list the result of each kickoff, (where the other team started their possession after the kickoff), the net yardage of each punt, (if they never got the punt off note whether it was blocked or bobbled and the net yardage of the play) and the yard line it wound up on, the result of each extra point, (I’ll note if it was a two point attempt) and field goal attempt. (I’ll also note any conversion returned for two points: I don’t think we’ve had one in our games since Pitt in 1990). Then I’ll record what happened on each first down run, first down pass, second down run and pass, third down run and pass and fourth down run and pass. If the yardage needed for a first down or a score in a goal to go situation is other than 10, I’ll note that unless the play resulted in a loss, no gain or an incomplete pass, in which case nit was a win for the defense regardless of the yardage needed. If it was a ”victory play” I’ll put a ’V’ next to it. Sacks are reported under passes, not runs, just by the negative yardage. If a quarterback scrambled for positive yardage, that’s a run simply because that’s how the ESPN play-by-play, which I am using, would record it.
I’ll note the number of penalties that were not tacked onto the play and the turnovers separately. Each line will have a “score” at the end of it, stating how many plays in each category each team won. There will be a grand total at the end, followed by a brief analysis of the stats and the game.
10/13/13: I’m going to make a minor but necessary change. I’ve been keeping track of penalties that negated plays, rather than being tacked onto them in a separate category. I’ve then been counting all such penalties as “lost” plays when the penalized team had the ball simply because that was the page upon which I recorded this stat. I realized I should be counting the defensive penalties on the other page. So I will separate them out on each page and have adjusted the totals for past games accordingly.
When Syracuse had the ball:
KO- WF23, WF23, WF34 (SU 2 WF 1)
P- 22(WF37), 51(WF21), 34(SU49), 54(WF27), 49(WF18), 31(WF20), 30(WF9), 31(WF38), 44(WF35), 23(WF13), 44(WF23) (SU 8 WF 5)
FG none
XP Good, Blocked (SU 1 WF 1)
Total for kicking game: Syracuse 11 Wake Forest 5
1st rush- 11, 3, 2, 8, 0, 0, 5, 0, 2, 6, 11, 8, 2, 6TD, 1, 67, 7, 3, 11, 1, 3, -1V (SU 10 WF 12)
1st pass- 15, m5, 2, 0, 8, 13, 5, 25TD, I (SU 6 WF 3)
First Down total: Syracuse 16 Wake Forest 15
2nd rush- 4(8), -3, 8(13), -5, 4, 3(4), 1(2), 1(2), -1, 7(3), 5, 10(9), 0, -1V (SU 9 WF 5)
2nd pass- 3(7), I 5(5), 7(5), I, I, 15(8), I, 6(7), 2(9) (SU 4 WF 6)
Second Down total: Syracuse 13 Wake Forest 11
3rd run- 3(1), 1(1), 2(1), 4(9), 3(1), -2, -1V (SU 5 WF 2)
3rd pass- I, I, I, I, I, -8, 8(8), 43(13), 2(11), I, 2(5), 3(6) (SU 2 WF 10)
Third Down total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 12
4th run- 2(3) (SU 0 WF 1)
4th pass-none
Fourth Down total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1
Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 36 Wake Forest 39
Penalties: SU- 5,5,5,5 WF- none (SU 0 WF 4)
Turnovers: none
Total for penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 4
Total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 47, Wake Forest 48
When Wake Forest had the ball:
KO- SU 25 (SU 0 WF 1)
P- 44(S24), 37(SU22), 49 (SU10), 29(SU18), 42(SU33), 26(SU20), 33(SU20), 45(SU27), 41(SU16), 33(SU9), 48SU35), 39(SU32), (SU 2 WF 10)
FG-none
XP- none
Total for kicking game: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 11
1st rush- 9, 5, 6 (SU 0 WF 3))
1st pass- 1, I, -1, 13(15), 7, I, 5, 6, I, I, I, I, I, I, 3, I, I, I, I, 9, I, I, -10 (SU19 WF 4)
First Down total: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 7
2nd rush- 4, 5(4), 0, 3, 14, 1(1), -2, 2, 5, 9 (SU 6 WF 4)
2nd pass- 3(9), 14(11), -1, I, 5(25), I, 17, I, 6(7), I, I 4, 4, I, 1(1), I (SU 12 WF 4)
Second Down total: Syracuse 18 Wake Forest 8
3rd run- 0, 4(1), -2V, 1(2) (SU 2 WF 2)
3rd pass- 10(11), I, I, 8(20), 23, I, I, I, 15(6), I, I, 23(1), -11, I (SU 11 WF 3)
Third Down total: Syracuse 13 Wake Forest 5
4th run- none
4th pass- I (SU 1 WF 0)
Fourth Down total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0
Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 51 Wake Forest 20
Penalties: SU- 5, 11 WF- 5, 5, 15, 10, 5, 10, 15 (SU 7 WF 2)
Turnovers: Interception (SU 1 WF 0)
Total for penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 2
Total when Wake Forest had the ball: Syracuse 61 Wake Forest 33
Overall kicking game total: Syracuse 13 Wake Forest 16
Overall plays from scrimmage total: Syracuse 87 Wake Forest 59
Overall penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 8 Pittsburgh 6
Game Total: Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81
Comments: It was my perception that, as in the Georgia Tech game, we were passing the ball too much in the first half. In six quarters, we gained 290 yards and scored zero points. Passing is not what we are good at. But we actually ran the ball 15 of 25 times in the first half, (60%). The problem is, we didn’t run it very well, ‘wining’ only 5 of those 15 plays. But in that opening drive of the second half we ran the ball 11 times in 14 plays, 79%) and the three passes were all complete- for a total of 36 yards. Every team wants to achieve balance but that doesn’t mean that you run and pass the ball an equal or comparable number of times. It means you have an equal capability to do both. Most teams do one better than the other and they succeed when they do what they do best and then use that to set up what they don’t do as well. Last year’s team was a strong passing team with a running game full of unknown quantities. We used the pass to spread out the defense and create opening for our young running backs. This year’s team is clearly better at running the football but we can pass well when the defense commits to stopping our running game. This team needs to come out running because it’s what we are best at and then pick our spots to throw.
Wake Forest, on the other hand, was not a balanced team at all. Even with their star receiver being lost for the game early on, they passé down first down 23 times, (to 3 runs), on second down 16 times, (to 10) and on third down 14 times (to 4). And prolific passing was not productive passing: Syracuse won 42 of 54 Wake Forest passing plays, and with that, the game.
It was a game dominated by punting and both were very good. 8 of Riley Dixon’s 11 punts were either 40+ yards or gave Wake the ball on its own 20 or less. But Alexander Kimal was even better for the Deacs, doing the same 10 times in 12 punts.
