yards per play eventually tell the story over enough games

[Millhouse]

SU went 10-15 the last two years. Winning percentage of 40%

Our rank in yards per play on offense and defense for both years combined (add up the totals for all games, divide them, rank them) was 106 offense, 36 defense. Average of 71 between them

125 teams that played FCS both years. 1-71/125 = 43%

43% X 25 games = 10.8 wins.

It's basically the Maryland game that's different.

This is why you look at yards. Last year we got a little lucky, winning record while outgained per play. This year we are actually better than we were last year in yards per play margin. We're only .1 yards worse per play, last year we were .23 yards per play worse

We had disastrous losses in 2013 where we were outgained by a million but it's still just one in the L column

But overtime, these numbers work themselves out.

If we can stay at 36th on defense, you need to get to 64th on offense to win 60% of your games in the long run. I think our defense would get worse in YPP if our offense got better because teams would take more risk so we probably need to do bette rthan that.

 

[Finwad32]

SU went 10-15 the last two years. Winning percentage of 40%

Our rank in yards per play on offense and defense for both years combined (add up the totals for all games, divide them, rank them) was 106 offense, 36 defense. Average of 71 between them

125 teams that played FCS both years. 1-71/125 = 43%

43% X 25 games = 10.8 wins.

It's basically the Maryland game that's different.

This is why you look at yards. Last year we got a little lucky, winning record while outgained per play. This year we are actually better than we were last year in yards per play margin. We're only .1 yards worse per play, last year we were .23 yards per play worse

We had disastrous losses in 2013 where we were outgained by a million but it's still just one in the L column

But overtime, these numbers work themselves out.

If we can stay at 36th on defense, you need to get to 64th on offense to win 60% of your games in the long run. I think our defense would get worse in YPP if our offense got better because teams would take more risk so we probably need to do bette rthan that.

Great find. Analytics and statistics have a place in football, similar to moneyball. Even though this is a micro perspective, a macro approach will ultimately funnel into this.

Bottom line, offensively, move the sticks and find a couple big play opportunities in the gameplan. It's all about 1st downs, 3 & outs wont get it. More 1st downs leads to increased TOP, increased yardage obviously, more opportunities at the big play, aids in the field position battle and keeps the defense fresh. Move the god darn chains.

We've got to stop being so predictable on 1st down. I never tracked it, but our 1st three plays in a series seemed almost exclusively like run, run pass, or run, pass pass. I understand we're trying to get into 2nd & 3rd and manageable, but running doesn't necessarily equal that.

I know, I'm off on a tangent, but this look at things made me think of so much.

 

[Millhouse]

Great find. Analytics and statistics have a place in football, similar to moneyball. Even though this is a micro perspective, a macro approach will ultimately funnel into this.

Bottom line, offensively, move the sticks and find a couple big play opportunities in the gameplan. It's all about 1st downs, 3 & outs wont get it. More 1st downs leads to increased TOP, increased yardage obviously, more opportunities at the big play, aids in the field position battle and keeps the defense fresh. Move the god darn chains.

We've got to stop being so predictable on 1st down. I never tracked it, but our 1st three plays in a series seemed almost exclusively like run, run pass, or run, pass pass. I understand we're trying to get into 2nd & 3rd and manageable, but running doesn't necessarily equal that.

I know, I'm off on a tangent, but this look at things made me think of so much.

yards per play isn't perfect but it's all i have easily available. success rates would be nice to know.

dumb example if you have a 99 yard TD and throw picks on your next 4 drives, you have 20 yards per play. but i think over enough games this stuff sorts out.

i think it's more about big plays than 1st downs in college because if you force an most offenses to have a lot of plays, eventually someone will blow it

SU was 16th in first downs in 2012, 17th in yards, 36th in YPP, and 55th in scoring.

being smarter on 4th down is low hanging fruit that is much easier than improving yards per play margin. i think baylor is a perfect example. 1st in offense, 24th in yards per play, because they're head and shoulders better than everyone else at 4th down conversions

we're 103rd in 4th down attempts

low hanging fruit