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[QUOTE="Millhouse, post: 1216041, member: 78"]
SU went 10-15 the last two years.  Winning percentage of 40%

Our rank in yards per play on offense and defense for both years combined (add up the totals for all games, divide them, rank them) was 106 offense, 36 defense.  Average of 71 between them

125 teams that played FCS both years.  1-71/125 = 43%

43% X 25 games = 10.8 wins.

It's basically the Maryland game that's different.

This is why you look at yards.  Last year we got a little lucky, winning record while outgained per play.  This year we are actually better than we were last year in yards per play margin.  We're only .1 yards worse per play, last year we were .23 yards per play worse

We had disastrous losses in 2013 where we were outgained by a million but it's still just one in the L column

But overtime, these numbers work themselves out.

If we can stay at 36th on defense, you need to get to 64th on offense to win 60% of your games in the long run.  I think our defense would get worse in YPP if our offense got better because teams would take more risk so we probably need to do bette rthan that.
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