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Message: [QUOTE="pokercuse08, post: 4974297, member: 6535"] OK so right now Wake is squarely on the bubble no matter who you ask, and we're nowhere near it according to most. Obviously getting blown out there doesn't do us any favors. But comparing resumes gives us an idea of how far out of the picture we should be. Based on the NAA website and a couple articles, these are the general criteria for resumes. Head-to-head and common opponents are also available when they're comparing two teams, as well as imbalanced conference schedules. I'm not looking at this as if these are the last two teams for one spot, though. Just looking to see how far we are from a bubble resume. [TABLE] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][CENTER]Wake Forest[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]Syracuse[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]W-L[/TD] [TD][CENTER]16-8[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]16-9[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NET[/TD] [TD][CENTER]37th[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]85th[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Q1[/TD] [TD][CENTER]0-4[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]2-7[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Q2[/TD] [TD][CENTER]5-4[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]3-1[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Q3[/TD] [TD][CENTER]5-0[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]6-1[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Q4[/TD] [TD][CENTER]6-0[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]4-0[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BPI[/TD] [TD][CENTER]29th[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]104th[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sagarin[/TD] [TD][CENTER]78th[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]93rd[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Pomeroy[/TD] [TD][CENTER]27th[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]88th[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall Strength of Schedule ESPN[/TD] [TD][CENTER]62nd[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]25th[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall SOS KenPom[/TD] [TD][CENTER]79th[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]22nd[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Non-Conf Strength of Schedule ESPN[/TD] [TD][CENTER]164th[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]83rd[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Non-Conf SOS KenPom[/TD] [TD][CENTER]251st[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]87th[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Road Record[/TD] [TD][CENTER]2-6[/CENTER][/TD] [TD][CENTER]2-5[/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So record and road record are basically a push, Q3/Q4 are basically a push. They're 5-8 vs Q1/Q2 and so are we, but we have a better record vs. both Q1 and Q2 split out. Advantage 'Cuse. They smoke us in all the computer rankings, and we smoke them in all the strength of schedule. So ideally, down the stretch we'd close that gap down to make it tighter than the gap between our strength of schedules. So what we need to do is rack up some wins and just as importantly, improve our computer rankings, which means beating the spread by a lot. Pitt just jumped from 60 to 53 with an 11 point win at UVA, and UVA dropped 9 spots. They beat the spread by 17.5 points. We jumped six spots for beating the spread by 14 vs UN. In particular we need to beat the spread by a lot in some of our road games, and if we lose, we need to cover. If we do that, going 4-2 might get us onto the bubble and make our first couple ACCT games very meaningful. In addition, we have the following wins that could improve or weaken. We don't necessarily need them to pull a big upset, we need them to beat the spread handily a few times. Oregon #63 (Neutral Q1 1-50) Miami #69 (Home Q2 31-75) NC State #80 (Home Q2 31-75) Among our remaining games, we have... @GT #141, Q3 (Road Q2 76-135) @NC State #80, Q2 (Road Q1 1-75) Va Tech #60, Q2 (Home Q2 31-75) @ Clemson #29, Q1 (Road Q1 1-75) So there's a chance @NC State becomes a Q1 game, and @ Clemson will be one. @GT could become a Q2 game, and we want Va Tech to hold on as a Q2 game. So we are rooting for: Oregon Miami NC State Georgia Tech We need these teams to beat spreads, not necessarily win. Likewise, winning but failing to cover is bad. Here's how we could see a big swing up in the next week: 1. We crush the spread in a W at Georgia Tech 2. NC State wins @ Clemson 3. We win @ NC State In that scenario the win @ Clemson would hopefully move NC State up more than their loss to us would drop them, and we could pick up a Q1 win at NC State, and possibly move up into the low 70's in NET. If that plays out and we're sitting at 18-9, 3-7 Q1, 3-1 Q2, low 70's NET, I think we're squarely into the bubble conversation. [/QUOTE]

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