2023 Bracketology

[fieldystick]

It's odd that Holy Cross and St. Bonaventure can seemingly drag Syracuse down, but Yale can get annihilated by Cornell and Princeton and it has no impact. It's also odd that Syracuse can simultaneously have the 5th hardest schedule while being dragged down by its opponents winning percentage.

There is a huge disconnect between Yale's metrics and their eye test per media poll.

It's all about margin, which isn't supposed to matter. (Ask 2021 committee about Syracuse. Yes, I'm still unhappy about that.)

 

[Hoo's That]

iViEs aRe sO ToUgH - ThEy jUsT BeAt uP On eAcH OtHeR

This is actually true, but so does the ACC. The difference is this year the ACC has the really good OOC record (recently heard it was something like 31-5, including wins over Ivy teams) to fall back on and the Ivy doesn't have one.

 

[DoctahLexus]

So who are we rooting for in UNC vs ND next couple of weeks? UNC wins and our rpi goes up because we beat UNC. But they also might take on of the very few remaining at large spots by beating them.

 

[Laxfanshutt]

So who are we rooting for in UNC vs ND next couple of weeks? UNC wins and our rpi goes up because we beat UNC. But they also might take on of the very few remaining at large spots by beating them.

It’s a catch 22

 

[fieldystick]

UNC wins and our rpi goes up because we beat UNC. But they also might take on of the very few remaining at large spots by beating them.

This isn't really how RPI works, but you probably want UNC to win because you played them twice instead of once (UND).

wgdsr and I were talking about this scenario a few pages back.


As of today, there are 3 at-large spots remaining to split between ACC 4/5, Big Ten 4/5, Ivy League 2/3, and Big East 2/3. I feel very confident that the Patriot League can no longer produce an at-large bid.

 

[cuselaxss26]

I say we just win both and it’s a done deal. Sound good?

 

[fieldystick]

So I'm drafting for tomorrow right now, and it's all tentative of course because there are two games that matter tonight, but, anyway, something for everyone here to chew on while we wait on those and everyone to analyze where teams stand as the week unfolds.

 

[DoctahLexus]

We definitely want the big 10 to keep it simple. MD Hop and Penn State in, and Michigan Rutgers and OSU out.

 

[fieldystick]

We definitely want the big 10 to keep it simple. MD Hop and Penn State in, and Michigan Rutgers and OSU out.

Rutgers is the key in the Big Ten. They're basically in the same position as UNC and Syracuse. All of these teams are essentially functioning as "bid thieves" at this point. In if they get the big win they need. Out if they don't. And they all have 2(+ for Rutgers) shots to get it. Rutgers: UMCP/PSU(/Big Ten semifinals if they get there), UNC: NDx2, Syracuse: UVA/Duke

IL 2/3 and BE 2/3 will claim however many of the spots are left after those 3 and the actual (conference tourney) bid thieves are done claiming.

The top 3 in the Big Ten are all locks at this point. 5 is the limit for the Big Ten without concocting a very specific set of results that is not very likely. A 5 bid Big Ten is most likely achieved by Rutgers winning one of their remaining 2 games and then Michigan or OSU making it to the conference championship game - I'm not even sure they'd need to win it.

 

[DoctahLexus]

Rutgers is the key in the Big Ten. They're basically in the same position as UNC and Syracuse. All of these teams are essentially functioning as "bid thieves" at this point. In if they get the big win they need. Out if they don't. And they all have 2(+ for Rutgers) shots to get it. Rutgers: UMCP/PSU(/Big Ten semifinals if they get there), UNC: NDx2, Syracuse: UVA/Duke

IL 2/3 and BE 2/3 will claim however many of the spots are left after those 3 and the actual (conference tourney) bid thieves are done claiming.

The top 3 in the Big Ten are all locks at this point. 5 is the limit for the Big Ten without concocting a very specific set of results that is not very likely. A 5 bid Big Ten is most likely achieved by Rutgers winning one of their remaining 2 games and then Michigan or OSU making it to the conference championship game - I'm not even sure they'd need to win it.

Sounds like it is unlikely the number of Big 10 teams in the tourney goes below 4? I was hoping there was a scenario where Rutgers Michigan and OSU do as poorly as possible and dont make it.

 

[fieldystick]

Sounds like it is unlikely the number of Big 10 teams in the tourney goes below 4? I was hoping there was a scenario where Rutgers Michigan and OSU do as poorly as possible and dont make it.

The second Rutgers lost to OSU, I've personally thought the Big Ten was heading for 3 bids. I thought the bottom half of the conference was going to destroy each other's chances. Rutgers is the last chance to change that imo, short of a crazy conference tourney run by OSU or Michigan.

The above is also the reason I've been consistently more bullish about the Ivy League getting 3 bids than most have been lately.

The reason that I presented Syracuse and Rutgers side by side above is I think the two teams are in darn near identical positions right now.

 

[cuselaxss26]

psu pulled out comeback win over mich was scary at first and maryland up now on rutgers. Def need maryland beat rutgers and psu beat rutgers next week

 

[jbsu44]

This is actually true, but so does the ACC. The difference is this year the ACC has the really good OOC record (recently heard it was something like 31-5, including wins over Ivy teams) to fall back on and the Ivy doesn't have one.

 

[blust2i3d4]

iViEs aRe sO ToUgH - ThEy jUsT BeAt uP On eAcH OtHeR

There is something wrong with your keyboard. Please fix it for the sake of the readers.

 

[nyclax]

cuse got what they needed from the big ten last night with rutgers and michigan both losing. starting to look more like a 3 bid league than a 5 bid. rutgers still has a chance i'd say but they have to go on the road and beat penn state next weekend. there is an opening now for the orange. if they win these next two they're in. winning one gets them in the conversation and it'll be interesting to see what happens then

 

[315Upstate]

cuse got what they needed from the big ten last night with rutgers and michigan both losing. starting to look more like a 3 bid league than a 5 bid. rutgers still has a chance i'd say but they have to go on the road and beat penn state next weekend. there is an opening now for the orange. if they win these next two they're in. winning one gets them in the conversation and it'll be interesting to see what happens then

Door is definitely open my feeling is one gets them in and if things Broke right two wins they could be seeded. How you are playing at end of season usually moves the committee and no one would be hotter. That said that is a tall task facing off like they are against two offensive juggernauts

 

[Grabberorang]

Some movement on the RPI front. Up to 19th. SOS dropped to 6th.

 

[orange79]

There is something wrong with your keyboard. Please fix it for the sake of the readers.

...but if you are, alternating caps are typically used to display mockery/disdain/eye-rolling in text messages or on message boards.

 

[Powellfan]

Door is definitely open my feeling is one gets them in and if things Broke right two wins they could be seeded. How you are playing at end of season usually moves the committee and no one would be hotter. That said that is a tall task facing off like they are against two offensive juggernauts

One of our resident Bracketology experts could answer this but I don’t think how you are playing at the end of the season factors into things at all. In fact I’m almost positive the committee is told explicitly NOT to factor in the end of the season vs the beginning. Notre Dame won their last six games of the season last year and were bypassed for a tourney spot. They are supposed to look at the season as a whole.

 

[nyclax]

One of our resident Bracketology experts could answer this but I don’t think how you are playing at the end of the season factors into things at all. In fact I’m almost positive the committee is told explicitly NOT to factor in the end of the season vs the beginning. Notre Dame won their last six games of the season last year and were bypassed for a tourney spot. They are supposed to look at the season as a whole.

they are not SUPPOSED to factor in recent play but they are human beings and it's possible recency bias can affect their thinking. if you end the season on a huge winning streak, maybe that RPI starts to look a little better or that bad loss can be forgiven. i don't have any data to know if that's true or not. someone should do an analysis of bubble teams over the last decade or so to see if there's maybe an unconscious bias towards teams who enter into the discussion hot/pass the eye test over teams who limp into selection sunday. but that's well above my pay grade. if i had the choice i'd rather be playing well at the end of the year than at the beginning, all else being equal, regardless of what happened with notre dame last year

 

[fieldystick]

they are not SUPPOSED to factor in recent play but they are human beings and it's possible recency bias can affect their thinking. if you end the season on a huge winning streak, maybe that RPI starts to look a little better or that bad loss can be forgiven. i don't have any data to know if that's true or not. someone should do an analysis of bubble teams over the last decade or so to see if there's maybe an unconscious bias towards teams who enter into the discussion hot/pass the eye test over teams who limp into selection sunday. but that's well above my pay grade. if i had the choice i'd rather be playing well at the end of the year than at the beginning, all else being equal, regardless of what happened with notre dame last year

The good news for Syracuse is I don’t think it matters. I think your case is extremely black and white. Either you get the win you need, or you don’t.

A top 5 win + UNC + either Princeton or Vermont staying in the top 20 is getting you in.

The bubble feels very weak overall this year. It’s the top 7 and then a bunch of uninspiring cases 8th-15th. Look at how little consensus there is over the 8 seed. No one has asserted themselves in this group.

 

[ClvrUsrnm]

View attachment 227109Some movement on the RPI front. Up to 19th. SOS dropped to 6th.

Would Ohio State even be eligible for the postseason with a losing record?

 

[fieldystick]

Would Ohio State even be eligible for the postseason with a losing record?

They must win their next 3 games. It would be an 8-8 very bubble case if they lost the Big Ten championship game.

If they lose the UM game, they have to win the AQ.

 

[ClvrUsrnm]

They must win their next 3 games. It would be an 8-8 very bubble case if they lost the Big Ten championship game.

If they lose the UM game, they have to win the AQ.

So it’d be better for Cuse if Ohio State beat Michigan and then lost the rest, right? Otherwise, a Michigan win drops Ohio State but bumps up Michigan, changing nothing in terms of the sheer number of teams on the bubble.

I’ve never rooted for Ohio State before. It feels very wrong and dirty.

 

[Zack80]

I feel very confident that the Patriot League can no longer produce an at-large bid.

Loyola does have those early season wins over UMd and JHU. While Loyola hasn't been playing too well of late, if they were to turn things around and beat Georgetown tomorrow night, that would give them 3 good wins. Further, if they knocked off Colgate and Lehigh to finish off their regular season. It would make them 9-5 with wins over UMd, JHU and Georgetown heading into the Patriot League tmt.
So I think Loyola still has a shot at an at-large bid - we'll know tomorrow night.