2024 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament Projections

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[Red2003]

Best path to the 7 seed tomorrow is Ga Tech pulling off an early win against FSU at noon at their place and then we just take care of business at Louisville. nc state is gonna get smacked the last 3 games of season so shouldn't have to worry about them.

 

[adk(roc)CUSE]

Best path to the 7 seed tomorrow is Ga Tech pulling off an early win against FSU at noon at their place and then we just take care of business at Louisville. nc state is gonna get smacked the last 3 games of season so shouldn't have to worry about them.

I might be wrong but 1 more win gets us a 7 seed (at least) regardless of any other outcomes. At least with the outcomes I ran through the seed predictor (and I ran a lot). But I might have missed something

 

[SwagSocks]

I might be wrong but 1 more win gets us a 7 seed (at least) regardless of any other outcomes. At least with the outcomes I ran through the seed predictor (and I ran a lot). But I might have missed something

I thought so too...but i was wrong. We can still get 8 seed if we lose to clemson

 

[OptimusOtto]

Best path to the 7 seed tomorrow is Ga Tech pulling off an early win against FSU at noon at their place and then we just take care of business at Louisville. nc state is gonna get smacked the last 3 games of season so shouldn't have to worry about them.

Let’s hope they keep it close or have an upset in there. Need them to get in the top 75 of the net

 

[pearl31]

I thought so too...but i was wrong. We can still get 8 seed if we lose to clemson

giving myself a migraine trying to run all the scenarios on that thing - the key might end up being that we hold tie-breaker over both Pitt and NC st, but FSU holds it over us - so want to root against FSU the rest of the way

 

[pokercuse08]

Updated ACC:

1 North Carolina 14-3
2 Duke 13-4
3 Virginia 12-6
4 Clemson 10-7 (1-1 v. UNC)
5 Wake Forest 10-7 (0-1)
6 Syracuse 10-8
7 Pitt 9-8 (1-0; 1-1 v Duke)
8 FSU 9-8 (1-0; 0-1)
9 N.C. State 9-8 (0-2)
10 VT 7-10
11 BC 6-11 (HTH)
12 ND 6-11
13 Miami 6-12
14 GT 5-12
15 UL 3-14

So as it stands, we'd get BC/GT first. If it's BC, a small win is basically neutral in NET, and it would be a Q2 game. If it's GT, we probably need to win by 6 to remain neutral in NET. Assuming we win, we'd get the 3-seed, currently Virginia. Currently a Q1 game, could drop farther though. Presumably next would be Duke.

 

[Cuse181]

I might be wrong but 1 more win gets us a 7 seed (at least) regardless of any other outcomes. At least with the outcomes I ran through the seed predictor (and I ran a lot). But I might have missed something

Correct

 

[pearl31]

Correct

Nope-
In all likelihood one more win gets us the 7 seed, but there are scenarios where we don't

 

[Cuse181]

Nope-
In all likelihood one more win gets us the 7 seed, but there are scenarios where we don't

I guess there is 1 singular scenario that has NC State wining out, I didn’t realize they had another game. But outside of that one singular scenario Syracuse is guaranteed a 7 seed or better.

 

[Red2003]

I thought so too...but i was wrong. We can still get 8 seed if we lose to clemson

Yea I just checked the same. Unlikely but possible. We are the last game Saturday as well. I hope it's bedlam early in the day so a win we can start looking at our path as a 7 seed. Would suck to have to play FSU in the 8/9, gets us nothing in the net and also we match up pretty terrible with their 12 man hackathon rotation against our 6...

 

[pearl31]

I guess there is 1 singular scenario that has NC State wining out, I didn’t realize they had another game. But outside of that one singular scenario Syracuse is guaranteed a 7 seed or better.

Nope-
If Pitt wins out (entirely possible) and FSU goes 2-1 (also entirely possible) we would be the 8 playing NC st the 9

 

[OrangeXtreme]

SCHOOL	ACC	PCT.
North Carolina	15-3	.833
Duke	14-4	.778
Virginia	12-7	.632
Syracuse	11-8	.579
Clemson	10-8	.556
Pitt	10-8	.556
Wake Forest	10-8	.556
NC State	9-9	.500
Florida State	9-9	.500
Virginia Tech	8-10	.444
Notre Dame	7-11	.389
Boston College	6-12	.333
Miami	6-12	.333
Georgia Tech	6-12	.333
Louisville	3-15	.167

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Patrick Stevens @D1scourse

ACC, 1 week to go:

1 North Carolina 15-3
2 Duke 14-4
3 Virginia 12-7
4 Syracuse 11-8
5 Clemson 10-8 (2-0 minigroup)
6 Wake Forest 10-8 (1-1)
7 Pitt 10-8 (1-3)
8 FSU 9-9 (HTH)
9 N.C. State 9-9
10 VT 8-10
11 ND 7-11
12 BC 6-12 (2-0)
13 GT 6-12 (1-1)
14 Miami 6-12 (0-2)
15 UL 3-15

9:31 AM · Mar 3, 2024

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[Fly Rodder]

Patrick Stevens @D1scourse

ACC, 1 week to go:

1 North Carolina 15-3
2 Duke 14-4
3 Virginia 12-7
4 Syracuse 11-8
5 Clemson 10-8 (2-0 minigroup)
6 Wake Forest 10-8 (1-1)
7 Pitt 10-8 (1-3)
8 FSU 9-9 (HTH)
9 N.C. State 9-9
10 VT 8-10
11 ND 7-11
12 BC 6-12 (2-0)
13 GT 6-12 (1-1)
14 Miami 6-12 (0-2)
15 UL 3-15

9:31 AM · Mar 3, 2024

That sure does look pretty nice.

 

[atlanticuse]

That sure does look pretty nice.

View attachment 238397

the SRS and point spread (own vs. opp scoring) are the reason behind our NET ranking.
But the team has done well and outperformed.

In the NBA, Golden State just got shellacked by 50 points.
But does it matter? They're 32-28.

 

[Fly Rodder]

the SRS and point spread (own vs. opp scoring) are the reason behind our NET ranking.

Yup, but it is getting absolutely crushed by 5 teams is what's causing it, not the algorithm.

Since 2010-11, Syracuse has had 38 games where they lost by 16+ points. They've had 7 of them this season (18%) including the worst overall (@ UNC) and another in the top 5 (@ Wake).

By Season (Ending Year):
2011 - 1
2012 - 0
2013 - 2
2014 - 1
2015 - 1
2016 - 1
2017 - 5
2018 - 3
2019 - 3
2020 - 2
2021 - 4
2022 - 3
2023 - 5
2024 - 7

People can complain that getting blown out shouldn't matter, but when its looked at holistically, it's fairly consistent with our overall results and team strength from the last decade plus. Interesting that the next two seasons were the 2017 team that was a bubble team and last season which (combined with the overall trend) was enough to get the head coach fired retired. 2023-24 has been a Jekyll & Hyde team that may have finally found its footing after catching some heavy body blows and KOs early on. In January over the span of 4 weeks they took 4 losses by an average of 25 points, including a pretty bad FSU team that's barely .500 - so let's not pretend that this team has been humming along all season.

I can't sort by conference at BBRef, but for comparison sake in the same time frame: Clemson has had 4, FSU has had 6, Miami has had 10, Duke has had 13 (Miami and UNC responsible for 6 of them), UNC has had 22, GTech has had 24, UVA has had 26 (which is surprising to me considering the rockfights Bennett likes), Louisville also has 38 (and 8 this season).

 

[atlanticuse]

Yup, but it is getting absolutely crushed by 5 teams is what's causing it, not the algorithm.

Since 2010-11, Syracuse has had 38 games where they lost by 16+ points. They've had 7 of them this season (18%) including the worst overall (@ UNC) and another in the top 5 (@ Wake).

By Season (Ending Year):
2011 - 1
2012 - 0
2013 - 2
2014 - 1
2015 - 1
2016 - 1
2017 - 5
2018 - 3
2019 - 3
2020 - 2
2021 - 4
2022 - 3
2023 - 5
2024 - 7

People can complain that getting blown out shouldn't matter, but when its looked at holistically, it's fairly consistent with our overall results and team strength from the last decade plus. Interesting that the next two seasons were the 2017 team that was a bubble team and last season which (combined with the overall trend) was enough to get the head coach fired retired. 2023-24 has been a Jekyll & Hyde team that may have finally found its footing after catching some heavy body blows and KOs early on. In January over the span of 4 weeks they took 4 losses by an average of 25 points, including a pretty bad FSU team that's barely .500 - so let's not pretend that this team has been humming along all season.

I can't sort by conference at BBRef, but for comparison sake in the same time frame: Clemson has had 4, FSU has had 6, Miami has had 10, Duke has had 13 (Miami and UNC responsible for 6 of them), UNC has had 22, GTech has had 24, UVA has had 26 (which is surprising to me considering the rockfights Bennett likes), Louisville also has 38 (and 8 this season).

we're in violent agreement.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Patrick Stevens @D1scourse

Updated ACC ...

1 North Carolina 15-3
2 Duke 15-4
3 Virginia 12-7
4 Syracuse 11-8
5 Clemson 10-8 (2-0 minigroup)
6 Wake Forest 10-8 (1-1)
7 Pitt 10-8 (1-3)
8 FSU 9-9
9 N.C. State 9-10
10 VT 8-10
11 Notre Dame 7-11
12 BC 6-12 (2-0)
13 GT 6-12 (1-1)
14 Miami 6-12 (0-2)
15 UL 3-15

9:04 PM · Mar 4, 2024

 

[kirbivore]

After tonight's loss need some help to stay out of 8/9 hell.

 

[MSOrange]

After tonight's loss need some help to stay out of 8/9 hell.

Lowest we can get is 7.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Feels like we’re headed for a 6th seed, which isn’t the worst place to be because it likely gives us our best shot at winning two games.

 

[ScrabbCuse]

Feels like we’re headed for a 6th seed, which isn’t the worst place to be because it likely gives us our best shot at winning two games.

I feel like our at large chances went out the window with this game. It’s automatic bid or bust.

 

[CorduroyG]

I feel like our at large chances went out the window with this game. It’s automatic bid or bust.

Pretty much. If we win 3 and lose in acc championship we’ll probably be in the discussion, but most likely gotta win it all.