3 Bold Predictions

[General20]

I happened to have two charity events scheduled during SU's two games in MSG, and last night I had guests over the house during the game. I got to watch all these games, but not carefully. I mostly had people talking to me while I was watching and I was not able to pay close enough attention to really break any of them down in a meaningful way. I do have a few predictions for the future that may be interesting though.

Prediction number one - Kaleb Joseph will have a better year than Chris McCullough. Joseph is not very good right now, and McCullough looks like a star. McCullough is, and will continue to be, the most talented player on the team, but when conference play starts the games are going to get a lot more physical and McCullough is going to wear down a bit. I am expecting McCullough to start the season strong, but hit a wall at some point. Hopefully, he can push through that wall and find his legs again at the end of the season the way Donte Greene did for us after he hit his mid-season wall. If you were to graph McCullough's production for the year, expect to see peaks and valleys. Joseph has all the tools necessary to be a star, even though right now he's not using those tools correctly. This young SU team started the season lost on both offense and defense, and you know Boeheim, he is fixing the defense first. There are signs the D is coming around, but meanwhile Joseph is not going to look very comfortable, or very good, offensively. With time this will change. Obviously everybody has better games and worse games, but if you were to graph Joseph's production for the season, expect to see it consistently rise. I think most people will look favorably on the way Joseph's graph looks when its all said and done.


Prediction number two - It dosn't matter how well Cooney shoots. The two MSG games were the first SU games this year I watched with crowds of people, and it amazed me how many of them brought Cooney's name up every play. Some ridiculed him, others defended him, but everyone seemed to be obsessed with him. I know that's the case on this board, but I was surprised at just how far reaching this Cooney obsession is. Most of the Cooney obsession that I heard went something like this: "Cooney needs to shoot x% from three this year for Syracuse to be good, and if he falls short of that percentage, I'm going to be mad!" Obviously I'm paraphrasing, but that's the general idea. I never heard anybody ask WHY Cooney is shooting the percentage he is shooting. The answer is very simple. Defenses are making it a point to stop him. I feel the need to make an additional very simple point here, Trevor Cooney is not Steph Curry or Kobe Bryant. He is not going to be able to create a lot of points if the defense is focused on shutting him down. When other teams want to shut down Cooney, they are going to succeed 9 times out of 10. The good news is, if they truly commit to never giving Cooney open looks, then it will make things easier for the rest of our players to score. Its the rest of our players that need to make team's pay, and if they do than those teams will stop focusing on Cooney and his shooting percentage will go up. Its really not on Cooney at all. Its on the rest of our guys. If Cooney needs to carry us, then we are not going to be good, its as simple as that, and to me that is not a knock on Cooney, he is suppose to be a shooter, which is by definition a role player or complimentary piece. Plus, 2 point field goal percentage is the most meaningful stat in any basketball game. If opposing teams are worrying about stopping us from three then that is to our advantage. The key to the season will be our guys ability to exploit the openings they get inside the three point arc.

Prediction number three - It does not matter how much BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson play (or don't play) this year. Nothing can be done to bring them up to the level we need them to play at. When you have the body to play high level D1 basketball and the skill (as McCullough and Joseph do) then playing time can help you. It will help you adjust to the speed of the game, and help coaches point out the things you need to work on. But when you don't have the body to play high level D1 basketball (as Johnson does not . . . he's simply too skinny) or when you don't have the skill (as its becoming more and more apparent that Patterson does not) ten or twenty minutes of PT a game can't help you. Basketball is hard. It takes thousands of hours of practice to improve your skills and thousands of hours in the gym to improve your body, a few minutes in a game won't make a difference. That is why the biggest jumps in play always happen during the off season.

So those are my predictions. All of which, I think, are rather bold. Lets see if any come true.

 

[Orangezoo]

I think they are just smart, logical observations more than really bold. The joseph/mccullough comment is spot on and I think if it does happen it benefits the team. Joseph needs to be able to make the game easier for his teammates even if that means by scoring more and attacking more and getting to the line. His ability to put pressure on the defense means we don't require Rak or Cmac to have to make a play every half possession.

As it comes to Cooney I mostly agree. You can see teams shadowing him. With that said there is a limit to the amount of poor shooting games he can have before teams stop giving him the attention. He has had some open looks.. not all in rhythym of course but some and he has hit a decent number of those. Most of his misses have been rushed or off balance due to defensive attention. So if he can make open looks ( not sure I am sold he can) then that bodes well.

As for your final point I couldn't agree more. BJ does a decent job on the boards and has some skill so that pairing does provide some value but as your said minutes are not going to be a difference maker. As for Buss, he can do a few things but not at the skill level that is necessary to compete in the ACC.

One final item is with that said about those two, I honestly think Obokoh can give us a few more minutes. Yes it was an awful team but he did rebound well and move within the zone fairly well. Good ball movement is going to result in some fouls inside no matter what so if he can help ensure we have a presence in the middle and take his share of those fouls vs Rak and Cmac taking them all it would really help. We are talent challenged as an entire club this year so it is not as though there aren't holes already.

 

[RF2044]

Great post--bold prediction on point #1--not sure that I agree with you there [but hope you are right, because Joseph taking off would do wonders for this team].

On point #3--not sure that Damone Brown or Hakim Warrick would agree with you. BJ is skinny [might be more accurate to label him "scrawny"], but he's got the requisite athleticism. And he's also the type of versatile 3 who thrives in our system. That doesn't mean that he will, or that it is guaranteed to happen this year, but I think you're overstating his physical stature in terms of holding him back. That said, yes--I'd prefer him to be 207 pounds.

 

[General20]

Great post--bold prediction on point #1--not sure that I agree with you there [but hope you are right, because Joseph taking off would do wonders for this team].

On point #3--not sure that Damone Brown or Hakim Warrick would agree with you. BJ is skinny [might be more accurate to label him "scrawny"], but he's got the requisite athleticism. And he's also the type of versatile 3 who thrives in our system. That doesn't mean that he will, or that it is guaranteed to happen this year, but I think you're overstating his physical stature in terms of holding him back. That said, yes--I'd prefer him to be 207 pounds.

I agree with you that skinny does not always mean "not physically ready." Warrick was as skinny as can be but he was ready to contribute from day one. Demone Brown was skinny too, and was ready as a sophomore. They are exceptions though. Johnson seems not quite ready, physically. I love his skill set though, and I do think he's going to thrive here.

 

[jordoo]

You can already see in Joseph's demeanor and decision making that he is slowly improving. I was looking at Chris last night when he was taking a seat on the bench and thinking I hope he holds up. The thing he has going for him is that his game is not that of a banger and he has nice touch on the jumper. Also as Joseph improves as you predict it would make things easier for Chris which may mask him hitting the wall. Its hard to say with freshmen, some hit the wall for a game or two some for the rest of the season.

Cooney is all about shot selection right now. He's making the good ones at a good rate he missing the bad ones because no one makes those shots. I agree in general he is a complimentary player whom the defense has to account for that who he is. I do think he can do a better job making the defense pay for overplaying him. My big gripe is just taking shots that he can't make, I know they are hounding him but he's got to be more patient and move the ball.

I am going to disagree on Johnson. He sure grabs a lot of rebounds for a guy who isn't physically ready. Sure he needs to add weight but the things he really needs to do game experience will help IMO. He needs to recognize good from bad shots. He needs to make shots and build confidence in his shot. He needs to figure out when to pass and when to take the shot himself. He needs to learn the defense in application. All of these things can be improved bye getting regular PT. You very well may be correct but last night Johnson was about 2 made 3 away from everyone being gaga over him on the board.
Buss confuses the heck out of me. His jumper looks great when he commits to it. He plays good defense. He seems comfortable making plays off the dribble and passing but only in space without pressure. He also looks lost in half court offense and struggles to do anything while closely guarded.

 

[AlaskaSU]

Great post--bold prediction on point #1--not sure that I agree with you there [but hope you are right, because Joseph taking off would do wonders for this team].

On point #3--not sure that Damone Brown or Hakim Warrick would agree with you. BJ is skinny [might be more accurate to label him "scrawny"], but he's got the requisite athleticism. And he's also the type of versatile 3 who thrives in our system. That doesn't mean that he will, or that it is guaranteed to happen this year, but I think you're overstating his physical stature in terms of holding him back. That said, yes--I'd prefer him to be 207 pounds.

Louie
JB

 

[RF2044]

Louie
JB

Orr is another good example.

 

[jordoo]

Rebounding Per minute this season:
BJ: .3229
Rak: .3216
Tyler: .2409
Chris: .2345

 

[We Are Syracuse]

I happened to have two charity events scheduled during SU's two games in MSG, and last night I had guests over the house during the game. I got to watch all these games, but not carefully. I mostly had people talking to me while I was watching and I was not able to pay close enough attention to really break any of them down in a meaningful way. I do have a few predictions for the future that may be interesting though.

Prediction number one - Kaleb Joseph will have a better year than Chris McCullough. Joseph is not very good right now, and McCullough looks like a star. McCullough is, and will continue to be, the most talented player on the team, but when conference play starts the games are going to get a lot more physical and McCullough is going to wear down a bit. I am expecting McCullough to start the season strong, but hit a wall at some point. Hopefully, he can push through that wall and find his legs again at the end of the season the way Donte Greene did for us after he hit his mid-season wall. If you were to graph McCullough's production for the year, expect to see peaks and valleys. Joseph has all the tools necessary to be a star, even though right now he's not using those tools correctly. This young SU team started the season lost on both offense and defense, and you know Boeheim, he is fixing the defense first. There are signs the D is coming around, but meanwhile Joseph is not going to look very comfortable, or very good, offensively. With time this will change. Obviously everybody has better games and worse games, but if you were to graph Joseph's production for the season, expect to see it consistently rise. I think most people will look favorably on the way Joseph's graph looks when its all said and done.


Prediction number two - It dosn't matter how well Cooney shoots. The two MSG games were the first SU games this year I watched with crowds of people, and it amazed me how many of them brought Cooney's name up every play. Some ridiculed him, others defended him, but everyone seemed to be obsessed with him. I know that's the case on this board, but I was surprised at just how far reaching this Cooney obsession is. Most of the Cooney obsession that I heard went something like this: "Cooney needs to shoot x% from three this year for Syracuse to be good, and if he falls short of that percentage, I'm going to be mad!" Obviously I'm paraphrasing, but that's the general idea. I never heard anybody ask WHY Cooney is shooting the percentage he is shooting. The answer is very simple. Defenses are making it a point to stop him. I feel the need to make an additional very simple point here, Trevor Cooney is not Steph Curry or Kobe Bryant. He is not going to be able to create a lot of points if the defense is focused on shutting him down. When other teams want to shut down Cooney, they are going to succeed 9 times out of 10. The good news is, if they truly commit to never giving Cooney open looks, then it will make things easier for the rest of our players to score. Its the rest of our players that need to make team's pay, and if they do than those teams will stop focusing on Cooney and his shooting percentage will go up. Its really not on Cooney at all. Its on the rest of our guys. If Cooney needs to carry us, then we are not going to be good, its as simple as that, and to me that is not a knock on Cooney, he is suppose to be a shooter, which is by definition a role player or complimentary piece. Plus, 2 point field goal percentage is the most meaningful stat in any basketball game. If opposing teams are worrying about stopping us from three then that is to our advantage. The key to the season will be our guys ability to exploit the openings they get inside the three point arc.

Prediction number three - It does not matter how much BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson play (or don't play) this year. Nothing can be done to bring them up to the level we need them to play at. When you have the body to play high level D1 basketball and the skill (as McCullough and Joseph do) then playing time can help you. It will help you adjust to the speed of the game, and help coaches point out the things you need to work on. But when you don't have the body to play high level D1 basketball (as Johnson does not . . . he's simply too skinny) or when you don't have the skill (as its becoming more and more apparent that Patterson does not) ten or twenty minutes of PT a game can't help you. Basketball is hard. It takes thousands of hours of practice to improve your skills and thousands of hours in the gym to improve your body, a few minutes in a game won't make a difference. That is why the biggest jumps in play always happen during the off season.

So those are my predictions. All of which, I think, are rather bold. Lets see if any come true.

I agree with prediction number 2 100000%... People who aren't close basketball watchers won't understand any of what you just said... They say "why is cooney shooting so poorly?" Well because he has guys draped over him 24/7 because he is the only outside perimeter threat... They need to instill some packages that make teams either have to guard cooney or Xmas, and every team will choose cooney... Cooney demands soooo much respect from teams scouting reports. He's without a doubt the most talked about, most prepared guy that teams prepare for... Him causing constant denial, should benefit the others, JOSEPH, Xmas, anyone really... They just need to learn how to execute when he is completely denied. Whether it is just trying to attack the side he is being denied on, so there's no help... They just need to find ways to get him open, or learn how to play with him covered