A little too early Bubble Watch Thread (Games of Feb 7 to Feb 9)

[jncuse]

SOURCES - The resume summaries are snips I took from Warren Nolan's website.

Starting this up because we won. We still have some work to do to get close to the bubble again.
1 of 89 had us in before today, probably will be a couple more after today. We might be able to get to double digits with a win over NC St. But being in the ACC sudden jumps are hard to come by due to lack of Q1 win availability.

I will summarize the results of teams around the bubble line, and add in the odd comment. Will be over several posts.

Teams based on Bracket Matrix (% of In, Not Average Seeding)

10th Last in, Michigan (97% have in)

A big Q1 win for Michigan today. They will be off the "last 10 in" list next week. They are a team that I believe could get in at 17-15, as absurd as that sounds.

Big Ten teams have such an absurd advantage right now since 12 teams are in the NET top 50.
Any home win is a Q1 or Q2 win. **
Any road win is a Q1 win **
Bad losses just will not happen **
There is basically no middling teams in conference that can sting you with a Q3 loss (for example losing to Notre Dame at home)
An 8-12 team in the BIG, will have many Q1+Q2 wins.

** With the exception of Nebraska and Northwestern, but those teams are really bad.

#9 Last In, Rhode Island (97% in)

A road win today, but just a Q3.

Decent resume. The key for them the rest of the way is to avoid Q3 losses. (One tricky game may be St. Louis at home)
They still play Dayton twice. Win one of the 2 games, and do nothing stupid they are good.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Hell yeah inject that jncuse analysis into my veins

 

[jdubs30]

URI is better without Danny Hurley huh

 

[jncuse]

#8 Last in, USC - (94% in)

This would be a Q1 road win for USC if they can pull it off. The type of game we have relied on.

The Pac-12 is deeper than the ACC this year, so more Q1/Q2 opportunities than compared to us down the stretch. Far from a lock if they win today, but they would be off this list next week.

#7 Last in, Stanford (89%)

A Q1 road loss.

Not sure why they are so high in the NET. (#41 in KP).
The NET is the main reason most people have them in, because their quality win profile right now is suspect. Big win is Oregon at Home. Also have 2 Q3 losses which is more than most They want to avoid another.

 

[CaptainJ]

In reply to the title, for the purpose of message boards this thread is never too early.

In other matters, those who wished to finally not to be in the bubble watch this season learned about the "be careful what you wish for".

 

[jncuse]

#6 Last In, Virginia (84%)

A Q1 road loss. Not the end of the world

They didn't do much OOC, and their Q1 wins are at Syracuse, H to Florida St.
The ACC does not give you opportunity for as many quality wins, and also allows for more negatives in terms of losses. They have to be careful down the stretch.

#5 Last In, Purdue (78%)

A really good week for Purdue. A Q1 road win today, and a blowout Q1 home win over Iowa.

See my comments about BIG under Michigan. Purdue has the same benefit.
Every single game they have left is Q1 or Q2. They can not have a bad loss.

Imagine they finish 3-5 with 1 Q1 win and 2 Q2 win. That is a record of 17-15
That would be 5 Q1 wins, and 10 Q1+Q2 wins. With only 1 bad loss.
That is probably a lock at 17-15... again the metrics advantage in the BIG is absurd this year.

 

[jncuse]

#4 Last in, Xavier (77%)

Q2 Home Win

They are benefiting from the relative strength of the BigEast this year.
Similar to Syracuse they are relying heavily on 2 Q1 road wins against decent teams (at TCU, at Depaul). The difference maker with them is the road win at Seton Hall... basically the equivalent of us beating Louisville or Florida St.

#3 Last In, Memphis (75%)

BAD LOSS - Q3 home loss.

After today's loss, they will be on the outside looking in next week.
They seemed to have stabilized after a blip a few weeks back. but this one really sets them back.
They actually have 5Q1 wins available down the stretch in the American. So they can recover... or go 1-4.

 

[jncuse]

#2 Last in - Oklahoma, 70% in

Q1 win for Oklahoma. Will solidify their standing

Fairly clean resume. NET is not too strong.
Win today really helped them.


Last Team in, VCU (56%)

A meh Q3 home win.

Not much good, not much bad either.
I suspect that 32 net is keeping them in for some.

 

[jncuse]

SUMMARY OF LAST TEAMS IN

Overall they performed very well today.
7-3 overall.
Q1 wins by Michigan, Purdue, Oklahoma, USC
Bad Loss - Memphis.

Of the 3 losers all will still be in next week, except for Memphis.

 

[jncuse]

Now for the First Teams Out.. A little less analyis and no comments / just results.

First Team Out, Cincinnati (48%)

Play tomorrow - UConn would actually be a Q1 road win. There is as much opportunity to get good wins in the AAC as the ACC this year. Yikes!

Second Team Out, Miss St (41%)

A meh Q3 win.

Third Team Out, Minnesota (41%)

Similar resume to Purdue and Michigan, but they are going to have a harder time staying above .500. And no matter how the metrics go a 16-16 team can't get in. (I think)

Fourth Team Out, Arizona St (17%)

Well the score is tightening up in this one, as posted above when I was looking at USC. Not sure what the best thing is in this one for us. When unsure, always go for the home team to avoid the Q1 win.

 

[jncuse]

5th Team Out, Georgetown (11%)

A Q2 Win at Home. Despite that 1-10 record in the Big East, Depaul is still NET 66.

6th team out, Tulsa (11%)

Would be a Q2 road win.

 

[NineOneSeven]

True board legend.

 

[jncuse]

Overall the teams ahead of us had a very nice day as a group. Memphis is the only one that had something really bad happen to them.

But there will be days it will go the other way. Really we just need to keep winning -- that is the key to any bubble watch.

Will probably do some sort of preview for Feb10-Feb 13 next on Monday.

 

[jncuse]

True board legend.

Thank you. But there are many legends on this board.

I contribute what I am good at. But when it comes down to talking about the Syracuse games, our team and player's performance, people run circles around me.

 

[Shark58]

Thank you. But there are many legends on this board.

I contribute what I am good at. But when it comes down to talking about the Syracuse games, our team and player's performance, people run circles around me.

no doubt there are some tremendous posters on this site that add a lot of great and detailed content

you among them

 

[STEVEHOLT]

5th Team Out, Georgetown (11%)

View attachment 176592

A Q2 Win at Home. Despite that 1-10 record in the Big East, Depaul is still NET 66.

6th team out, Tulsa (11%)

View attachment 176593

Would be a Q2 road win.

Holy crap depaul is 1-10 in conference? earlier in the year i thought they were going to be pretty good, maybe tourney worthy..of course i bet on Minny Gophers at home vs depaul and depaul not only covered on the road, but won. needless to say, its been all downhill for them.