ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[HRE Otto IV]

I'm not assuming they talks aren't happen. I imagine it's a hot topic. I was just phrasing how I would send it.

However, the FSU did talk about unequal sharing in a way that many people interpreted it as a solution to no tv contract, at least for the interim. Whether he is playing a game, (e.g. saying he wants unequal revenue sharing knowing there is a tv negotiation that will likely in parallel), only the ADs, ESPN and ACC execs know.

As for working with FSU, if the ACC doesn't at least reciprocate (or bare minimum entertain) FSU, they lose them. It will just be a matter of when.

The ACC is losing FSU whether it gives FSU money or not. So why give them more money? The only way FSU stays in the ACC is if the SEC and B1G do not want them. In that case FSU isn't leaving. The rest of the ACC would be suckers and only hurting themselves.

 

[All4SU]

Maybe FSU could pay the ACC in free shoes…

 

[HRE Otto IV]

From SU's perspective there would be 4 scenarios...

1. We get $5M less per year for the next 10 years and should FSU leave we get $7.5M. Good investment?

2. We get $5M less per year for the next 10 years and FSU signs the new GOR for 10 more years. Since there is no cause and effect, we just lose money.

3. We don't give up any money and FSU leaves in 10 years. We get $7.5M in return.

4. We don't give up any money and FSU signs a new GOR for an additional 10 years.


Since there is no reward for giving up money, why should SU agree to it?

 

[mscanlo]

The ACC is losing FSU whether it gives FSU money or not. So why give them more money? The only way FSU stays in the ACC is if the SEC and B1G do not want them. In that case FSU isn't leaving. The rest of the ACC would be suckers and only hurting themselves.

It’s not just FSU, it’s likely Clemson, Miami and North Carolina are also reportedly looking for a better solution. Can the ACC afford to lose all 4? Maybe? And who is to say it stops there

 

[Chris02M]

It’s not just FSU, it’s likely Clemson, Miami and North Carolina are also reportedly looking for a better solution. Can the ACC afford to lose all 4? Maybe? And who is to say it stops there

those teams have to have places to go. Why would the sec want to double up in markets it already controls with clemson and florida state? North Carolina is probably a safe bet for the bigten but will they go without a brother named duke? Miami just isnt there athletically right now to be a serious candidate for either

 

[mscanlo]

those teams have to have places to go. Why would the sec want to double up in markets it already controls with clemson and florida state? North Carolina is probably a safe bet for the bigten but will they go without a brother named duke? Miami just isnt there athletically right now to be a serious candidate for either

Arguably, all 4 of those schools are top 20 college football brands. I find it hard to believe they can’t find a new home (i think both Big 10 and SEC will be receptive to adding top 20 brands)

In reference to Miami, yes, they aren’t there right now, but it is reported that a couple big boosters have stepped and ready to get them back to an elite program (e.g, Coral gables high school stadium even though it was shot down). In addition, I believe I read the school is in significantly better standing financially due to UM medical, etc.

 

[elimunelson]

Using the UT/OU model, they settled for more than 2X one year's revenue to leave a year early.

In 2021, the ACC averaged $36.6MM/team. Double that to $73.2MM then multiply by 12 years left under the GOR = $878.4MM.

I'm not slamming you, what is your best guess?

I’m just saying if this completely falls apart you will accept a settlement versus years in court to fight this. A judge could knock these penalties down too based on exit fees like minded schools paid before

I just think we are whistling past the graveyard

 

[TerryD]

The ACC is the mistress that ND never leaves his wife for but always hints he will. Time to cut the cord.

Show me one quote from anyone at ND that "hinted" that ND football would one day join the ACC.

Every single ND comment since 2012 has said the exact opposite, loudly and often.

 

[javadoc]

An interesting turn this board has taken from a bunch of posts hating ND and threatening to kick it out of the ACC ("In or out !! ") if it doesn't join in full to "needing to attach" to ND somehow.

He doesn't speak for everyone.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

those teams have to have places to go. Why would the sec want to double up in markets it already controls with clemson and florida state? North Carolina is probably a safe bet for the bigten but will they go without a brother named duke? Miami just isnt there athletically right now to be a serious candidate for either

Just looking at the ACC...

Clemson has a strong FB brand and a decent enough TV market. I think both the SEC and B1G would have interest.

FSU has a strong FB brand but they don't add a direct market. How much weight does FSU carry in Miami, Orlando, and Tampa? Also one could argue that recruiting in Florida would become harder for SEC teams. I do think the B1G should have interest.

Miami has a good brand and a good market. They are in no way a fit institutionally for the SEC. However they are less of a threat for recruits vs FSU. The B1G IMO should absolutely have interest.

UNC has a great BBall brand and adds markets. Both the SEC and B1G would want them.

GA Tech has a good market. The B1G should want them. The SEC shouldn't offer, unless they want to keep the B1G out of GA.

VA Tech has a decent FB brand. I think both the B1G and SEC should have interest. For the SEC IMO they are the #1 pick for VA, while #2 for the B1G.

UVA wouldn't really fit in the SEC. The only way I see them there is if UNC goes to the SEC on the condition UVA comes too. The B1G fits for sure.

NC State would add markets to the SEC, if UNC went to the B1G. Also the SEC needs to water down a little or fans from the premier programs will have to get used to 8-4 type seasons. Someone has to lose games.

Duke has a strong BBall brand but it is not enough to get an invite. The only thing IMO that can save them is if UNC requires a Duke invite to leave the ACC. Not likely though.

BC adds a good market but they stink at sports and have no fans. Would the TV networks want them? If yes, then the B1G may come calling.

SU has a good brand and a large passionate BBall fanbase. There is influence in NYC and a lot of influence in the rest of the state. Is that enough to get an invite? I think SU and BC will either both go or both not go to the B1G. IMO it is 50-50 to happen.

Pitt would fit in the B1G but they do not add value. I suppose if the SEC needed one more team to get to an even amount of teams, they could consider Pitt but highly unlikely.

Louisville has pretty good athletics, but doesn't add enough value.

Wake does not add value.


I think the top half of that list will either be in the B1G or SEC one day. The bottom half teams could end up in those conferences, but it isn't likely.

 

[elimunelson]

An interesting turn this board has taken from a bunch of posts hating ND and threatening to kick it out of the ACC ("In or out !! ") if it doesn't join in full to "needing to attach" to ND somehow.

Terry, i can see your anger towards some of the mouth breathers on here that are negative ND but i am not one of them (at all).

I honestly believe that Syracuse's best future lies with some confederation that surrounds the ND independence. Inevitably the ACC is going to blow up, why not go hang with the school that isn't going to leave for another conference when their entire makeup is to be NOT in a conference.

I'm bearish on relying on the future decision making of a Clemson or FSU (yuck) to determine our football future. I would be bullish on ND being consistent as usual in their intentions going into the 2030s.

 

[elimunelson]

Just looking at the ACC...

Clemson has a strong FB brand and a decent enough TV market. I think both the SEC and B1G would have interest.

FSU has a strong FB brand but they don't add a direct market. How much weight does FSU carry in Miami, Orlando, and Tampa? Also one could argue that recruiting in Florida would become harder for SEC teams. I do think the B1G should have interest.

Miami has a good brand and a good market. They are in no way a fit institutionally for the SEC. However they are less of a threat for recruits vs FSU. The B1G IMO should absolutely have interest.

UNC has a great BBall brand and adds markets. Both the SEC and B1G would want them.

GA Tech has a good market. The B1G should want them. The SEC shouldn't offer, unless they want to keep the B1G out of GA.

VA Tech has a decent FB brand. I think both the B1G and SEC should have interest. For the SEC IMO they are the #1 pick for VA, while #2 for the B1G.

UVA wouldn't really fit in the SEC. The only way I see them there is if UNC goes to the SEC on the condition UVA comes too. The B1G fits for sure.

NC State would add markets to the SEC, if UNC went to the B1G. Also the SEC needs to water down a little or fans from the premier programs will have to get used to 8-4 type seasons. Someone has to lose games.

Duke has a strong BBall brand but it is not enough to get an invite. The only thing IMO that can save them is if UNC requires a Duke invite to leave the ACC. Not likely though.

BC adds a good market but they stink at sports and have no fans. Would the TV networks want them? If yes, then the B1G may come calling.

SU has a good brand and a large passionate BBall fanbase. There is influence in NYC and a lot of influence in the rest of the state. Is that enough to get an invite? I think SU and BC will either both go or both not go to the B1G. IMO it is 50-50 to happen.

Pitt would fit in the B1G but they do not add value. I suppose if the SEC needed one more team to get to an even amount of teams, they could consider Pitt but highly unlikely.

Louisville has pretty good athletics, but doesn't add enough value.

Wake does not add value.


I think the top half of that list will either be in the B1G or SEC one day. The bottom half teams could end up in those conferences, but it isn't likely.

Syracuse will offer the BIG or SEC nothing really that they already have from the NYC presence of their big flagships such as Penn St, Mich, Ohio St and a speck of Rtugers. I would think BC perhaps could provide a spark of regional interest for the BIG but i think the same issue arises.

 

[FreakTalksAboutSU]

RANKING of Average viewership by team in these conferences

There were more numbers cut off at right. The ranking on the left is what matters

 

[oldpinepoint]

Big ten and sec network is available everywhere. It’s about streaming at this point. You get the best brands not locations.

 

[Willy75]

Using the UT/OU model, they settled for more than 2X one year's revenue to leave a year early.

In 2021, the ACC averaged $36.6MM/team. Double that to $73.2MM then multiply by 12 years left under the GOR = $878.4MM.

I'm not slamming you, what is your best guess?

Discount that to current dollars at 5%.

 

[FreakTalksAboutSU]

i dont see any scenario Cuse ends up in the Big 10. IMO, the only way Syracuse is left in the "big" time moving forward is if the ACC and PAC 12 create a 3rd coastal conference to serve as the defacto #3 behing the Big 10 and SEC. No one wants to hear that, but thats my gut.

If that doesnt happen, the Big 12 will raid the PAC 12 and become that 3rd conference (ASU, AZ, Colorado etc), and then eventually the SEC and BIG 10 will take the best of the remaining ACC/PAC teams (Clemson, FSU, Oregon, Washington), with the rest falling into irrelevance.

 

[Newhouser]

Just looking at the ACC...

Clemson has a strong FB brand and a decent enough TV market. I think both the SEC and B1G would have interest.

FSU has a strong FB brand but they don't add a direct market. How much weight does FSU carry in Miami, Orlando, and Tampa? Also one could argue that recruiting in Florida would become harder for SEC teams. I do think the B1G should have interest.

Miami has a good brand and a good market. They are in no way a fit institutionally for the SEC. However they are less of a threat for recruits vs FSU. The B1G IMO should absolutely have interest.

UNC has a great BBall brand and adds markets. Both the SEC and B1G would want them.

GA Tech has a good market. The B1G should want them. The SEC shouldn't offer, unless they want to keep the B1G out of GA.

VA Tech has a decent FB brand. I think both the B1G and SEC should have interest. For the SEC IMO they are the #1 pick for VA, while #2 for the B1G.

UVA wouldn't really fit in the SEC. The only way I see them there is if UNC goes to the SEC on the condition UVA comes too. The B1G fits for sure.

NC State would add markets to the SEC, if UNC went to the B1G. Also the SEC needs to water down a little or fans from the premier programs will have to get used to 8-4 type seasons. Someone has to lose games.

Duke has a strong BBall brand but it is not enough to get an invite. The only thing IMO that can save them is if UNC requires a Duke invite to leave the ACC. Not likely though.

BC adds a good market but they stink at sports and have no fans. Would the TV networks want them? If yes, then the B1G may come calling.

SU has a good brand and a large passionate BBall fanbase. There is influence in NYC and a lot of influence in the rest of the state. Is that enough to get an invite? I think SU and BC will either both go or both not go to the B1G. IMO it is 50-50 to happen.

Pitt would fit in the B1G but they do not add value. I suppose if the SEC needed one more team to get to an even amount of teams, they could consider Pitt but highly unlikely.

Louisville has pretty good athletics, but doesn't add enough value.

Wake does not add value.


I think the top half of that list will either be in the B1G or SEC one day. The bottom half teams could end up in those conferences, but it isn't likely.

Good summary but I think Clemson's football brand is Dabo - when he moves on they will fall back to where they were for most of their lifetime. Good program that was not as good as they thought.

 

[Newhouser]

i dont see any scenario Cuse ends up in the Big 10. IMO, the only way Syracuse is left in the "big" time moving forward is if the ACC and PAC 12 create a 3rd coastal conference to serve as the defacto #3 behing the Big 10 and SEC. No one wants to hear that, but thats my gut.

If that doesnt happen, the Big 12 will raid the PAC 12 and become that 3rd conference (ASU, AZ, Colorado etc), and then eventually the SEC and BIG 10 will take the best of the remaining ACC/PAC teams (Clemson, FSU, Oregon, Washington), with the rest falling into irrelevance.

I agree but I think irrelevance starts with anyone not part of the Big 2.

 

[FreakTalksAboutSU]

I agree but I think irrelevance starts with anyone not part of the Big 2.

i think that the top 2 will definitely be tier 1. but i think that there will be enough room for a 3rd conference, meaning something like the top 60 teams, to have access to the playoff, elite bowls, etc.

I see it like

1. SEC
1A. Big 10
.
2. Big 12 or ACC/PAC12 combined conf
.
.
.
3. Remaining current power 5 programs
.
.
4. Everyone else...(MAC, etc)

 

[kcsu]

SU might sneak into the Big but will most likely end up in the 3rd conference with a nice paycheck each year and a punchers chance to make the playoffs every once in a while.

 

[FreakTalksAboutSU]

SU might sneak into the Big but will most likely end up in the 3rd conference with a nice paycheck each year and a punchers chance to make the playoffs every once in a while.

i think that most of us would sign onto that in a heartbeat

 

[TerryD]

He doesn't speak for everyone.

Good luck to you.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

i think that the top 2 will definitely be tier 1. but i think that there will be enough room for a 3rd conference, meaning something like the top 60 teams, to have access to the playoff, elite bowls, etc.

I see it like

1. SEC
1A. Big 10
.
2. Big 12 or ACC/PAC12 combined conf
.
.
.
3. Remaining current power 5 programs
.
.
4. Everyone else...(MAC, etc)

IMO the networks will give enough incentive to the B1G and SEC to gobble up Washington, Oregon, Stanford, BYU and/or Utah, Colorado, Arizona State and/or Arizona, Kansas, UNC, UVA, VA tech, Clemson, FSU, GA Tech, Miami. Maybe a few teams outside that make it to get to a round number.

What is leftover from the ACC/P12 isn't worth merging. The B12 could grab some of the scraps.

 

[Hoo's That]

With the large revenue gap I wonder if a state legislature gets involved somehow to try and illegitimize the ACC GOR in their state. I am not a lawyer, and not sure if this is even possible, but could see a state like Florida or Virginia trying to pull a maneuver like this to get their team out of the conference if the SEC or BIG came calling. You're talking 300-500M over the course of 10 years which a state could argue is detrimental to the financial health of it's citizens.

States haven't been allowed to "impair" contracts in that way since SCOTUS ruled against them in Trustees of Dartmouth College v. Woodward in 1819.

 

[baggerbob]

There is a rumor going around that ND, NBC and the Big Ten have all agreed in principle to a deal that sends ND full time to the Big Ten.

The rumor is comes from SEC sources (not Big Ten or ND---have no idea how the SEC guys would know this) and they point to the fact that only ND is named in the Big Ten TV deal for future adds and a specific amount added to the contract if ND joins.

They also cite the fact that ND/NBC have not executed a TV deal renewal despite ND and NBC reportedly agreeing to terms back in August as "proof" that ND has agreed to join the Big Ten at some point in the near future.

The rumor further is that ND will sit back and let FSU and Clemson do the heavy lifting and take the bad PR regarding challenging the ACC GOR and will then leave if those two are successful in that challenge, maybe even signing a new 5 year NBC deal (with appropriate Big Ten language in it) shortly if ND needs five years to let things ride things out.

(The FSU Warchant realignment thread states that the ND/NBC contracts have always had a penalty clause in them if ND football ever joined a conference and had to terminate the deal. They claim that the proposed new contract has similar language, but that NBC has specifically agreed to waive those penalty claims if ND joins the Big Ten)

Whether any of this is true or just a bunch of unfounded rumor is anyone's guess at this point.

I sure hope not.

"May you live in interesting times" is the old Chinese curse.

After Swofford got everyone to sign the extension on the GOR the ACC for all intent was a dead man walking.
That did the same thing to the ACC, that ESPN did to the big East, destroyed the conference.
Even if Notre Dame were to join, ESPN won't do anything to allow the ACC to survive.
They have the conference on the cheap until 2036.