An Analysis of Cooney's stats...

[Forza Azzurri]

Both two3Zone's below post

and AZOrange's response:

got me thinking as to which one, if either, was correct.

So, I put together an analysis of Cooney's 3 point shooting stats:

Cooney has been a starter for three years so those were the three years I focused on:

Over those three years, his aggregate 3 point shooting percentage is 34.1%

However, if his shooting percentage is broken down by time period, the results are interesting:

From the start of the season through the end of January, his shooting percentage is 37.6%. In Feb and March, it falls by a full -10.5% to 27.1%.

I also broke it down by opponent type: OOC Easy; OOC Tough; In conference Dec-Jan and In Conference Feb-Mar.

Against cupcakes, he shoots 44.2% for his career.
Against tougher OOC opponents, his shooting percentage drops to 38.0%.
In conference in Dec-Jan, his percentage is 33.8%.
In conference in Feb-Mar, his percentage drops to 26.8%

I also looked at how he shoots against ranked opponents:

From Nov-Jan, he shoots 38.7%
In Feb-Mar, he shoots 29.1%.

I think the data shows a few things:

1. There is definitely something going on Feb-Mar that causes his production to really drop off. Realistically, his shooting percentages against conference opponents should not be so different earlier in the season versus later in the season unless there is something else going on. I suspect it is fatigue. Be interested to know what other might think the reason is.

2. Against opponents where he has more time and space, ie. our easy OOC opponents, he shoots 44.2%. Is that good? Is that not good? Does that say anything about his shooting ability? I would venture that it does.

3. There is a 3.4% point spread between his shooting percentages against our tougher OOC opponents and our Dec-Jan in-conference opponents (37.2% vs 33.8%). Is that because in-conference opponents know us better and gameplan for him? Is it random? Is he already wearing down in Jan? Is it something else?

I would venture he is a good shooter, if given time and space; his production drop-off from the tougher part of our OOC to in-conference is game-planning; he does not have the athleticism to overcome opponents focused on taking him out of the gameso he is forced to take tougher shots and his drop-off from Dec-Jan to Feb-Mar is fatigue...

Be interested to hear other, reasoned, takes.

 

[Libero2]

Love the analysis.

I'd wager fatigue makes a difference, also pressure. The later in the season we get, the more every individual game is magnified and as conference comp gets tougher, close games = increased in game pressure, which I don't think he handles well.

Also later on in the season, there is even more film for opponents to watch and devise ways to shut him (or anyone else) down.

Combine all of those things, and it sorta makes sense he struggles late in seasons.

How many NBA guys average 39 mpg for 35 games? Not many can sustain that level of minutes and remain productive. That's why I'm certain fatigue makes a difference, regardless of JBs beliefs

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Both two3Zone's below post
View attachment 57203

and AZOrange's response:

View attachment 57204

got me thinking as to which one, if either, was correct.

So, I put together an analysis of Cooney's 3 point shooting stats:

Cooney has been a starter for three years so those were the three years I focused on:

Over those three years, his aggregate 3 point shooting percentage is 34.1%

However, if his shooting percentage is broken down by time period, the results are interesting:

From the start of the season through the end of January, his shooting percentage is 37.6%. In Feb and March, it falls by a full -10.5% to 27.1%.

I also broke it down by opponent type: OOC Easy; OOC Tough; In conference Dec-Jan and In Conference Feb-Mar.

Against cupcakes, he shoots 44.2% for his career.
Against tougher OOC opponents, his shooting percentage drops to 38.0%.
In conference in Dec-Jan, his percentage is 33.8%.
In conference in Feb-Mar, his percentage drops to 26.8%

I also looked at how he shoots against ranked opponents:

From Nov-Jan, he shoots 38.7%
In Feb-Mar, he shoots 29.1%.

I think the data shows a few things:

1. There is definitely something going on Feb-Mar that causes his production to really drop off. Realistically, his shooting percentages against conference opponents should not be so different earlier in the season versus later in the season unless there is something else going on. I suspect it is fatigue. Be interested to know what other might think the reason is.

2. Against opponents where he has more time and space, ie. our easy OOC opponents, he shoots 44.2%. Is that good? Is that not good? Does that say anything about his shooting ability? I would venture that it does.

3. There is a 3.4% point spread between his shooting percentages against our tougher OOC opponents and our Dec-Jan in-conference opponents (37.2% vs 33.8%). Is that because in-conference opponents know us better and gameplan for him? Is it random? Is he already wearing down in Jan? Is it something else?

I would venture he is a good shooter, if given time and space; his production drop-off from the tougher part of our OOC to in-conference is game-planning; he does not have the athleticism to overcome opponents focused on taking him out of the gameso he is forced to take tougher shots and his drop-off from Dec-Jan to Feb-Mar is fatigue...

Be interested to hear other, reasoned, takes.

You could probably take the game planning a step farther and say that it also contributes to part of the Feb-Mar decline. An opposing coach will analyze how his team fared in the first game and give his team additional points of emphasis for the second game. I'd love to see what your numbers would show for teams seeing him a third time in the end of season conference tournament.

Great post though. I'll be interested to see where this thread takes us.

 

[Ghost]

The Daily Orange had a piece on Cooney's legacy the other day that touched on this slightly. His brother (I think it was his bro), who is also his training dude, said they analyze everything and thought he was too mechanical with following routines (must not leave gym after a miss, must take 5,000,000 jumpers after practice, must eat peanut butter and jelly sammiches), and also practiced too much on his own.

They said they noticed he tended to trail off at season's end, or at least had minor physical issues as the season progressed, and had been trying to rectify that the past season or two. Apparently he was tiring himself out.

Or something like that. I don't know - that's sort of what I took from it. You can find the article easy enough. Worth a read - good kid.

In before thread locked!

 

[djcon57]

This type of analysis has been suggested for basically the past 3 years and shouted down repeatedly...

In the past it's been, "College kids don't get tired" or "Cooney needs shooters around him"

See this thread from last year, hits all the high points.

http://syracusefan.com/threads/look...before-this-time-ill-look-just-overall.87863/


Or this one...
http://syracusefan.com/threads/we-win-and-the-cooney-bashing-continues.65764/

"I think a better rested Cooney will shoot better."

 

[EastCoast2]

People that think Cooney's numbers nosedive because of fatigue have never played competitive basketball at a high level. These guys are highly trained athletes. They play year round, and sometimes during the season they get more rest than during the offseason. Do you think the coaching staff is running them into the ground, making them do 100 suicide sprints every night in the 3-4-5 days between games?

Cooney's shooting percentages tank because, frankly, as the season goes on, we play better competition. It's as clear as day to me. Look at OP's spliced data by level of competition. He's not shooting worse against Pitt and UL because he's tired, it's because Pitt and UL are much better than Colgate and Cornell. He's never been able to create his own shot, and ACC defenders are a higher caliber than mid-major players.

I've also stated in a recent, similar thread, that he's just not mentally tough. Going 6-8 from three against Binghamton in the Dome when we're up 30 is great, but he's never been the guy I want taking a shot down 1 against a quality opponent, even if he was on a "hot streak".

The data suggests he's just not that good.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

People that think Cooney's numbers nosedive because of fatigue have never played competitive basketball at a high level. These guys are highly trained athletes. They play year round, and sometimes during the season they get more rest than during the offseason. Do you think the coaching staff is running them into the ground, making them do 100 suicide sprints every night in the 3-4-5 days between games?

Cooney's shooting percentages tank because, frankly, as the season goes on, we play better competition. It's as clear as day to me. Look at OP's spliced data by level of competition. He's not shooting worse against Pitt and UL because he's tired, it's because Pitt and UL are much better than Colgate and Cornell. He's never been able to create his own shot, and ACC defenders are a higher caliber than mid-major players.

I've also stated in a recent, similar thread, that he's just not mentally tough. Going 6-8 from three against Binghamton in the Dome when we're up 30 is great, but he's never been the guy I want taking a shot down 1 against a quality opponent, even if he was on a "hot streak".

The data suggests he's just not that good.

The data accounts for the increased level of competition though, at least in part. He does worse in the second half of the season as opposed to the first, and that means he's playing the some teams twice. Teams do tend to get better as the season goes on, so clearly that could be part of the reason. And I'm not saying you're wrong, just pointing out what the data says.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

In conference 33.8% for a SG is still poor. It is better than what he does in Feb-March but not where it should be. Even his Nov-Dec-Jan numbers wouldn't quantify him as a good shooter either. Being a 37.6% shooter isn't even close nationally. Minimum 100 attempts the 60th best 3 point shooter is at 42.6% on the year. Minimum 2.5 threes made per game would put a 37.6% shooter at 84th nationally. So even Cooney at his best can't be considered a good shooter. That doesn't cut it especially for a 5th year SR.

 

[EastCoast2]

The data accounts for the increased level of competition though, at least in part. He does worse in the second half of the season as opposed to the first, and that means he's playing the some teams twice. Teams do tend to get better as the season goes on, so clearly that could be part of the reason. And I'm not saying you're wrong, just pointing out what the data says.

True but that's really only 3 games. If SU plays 4 teams twice, and one of those is always BC, I think we can throw that one out. Then we're left with three extra games against either Duke, Pitt, UNC, UL, etc. Which accounts for appx. 10% of the season, while his shooting % drops by appx. 21%.

 

[djcon57]

People that think Cooney's numbers nosedive because of fatigue have never played competitive basketball at a high level. These guys are highly trained athletes. They play year round, and sometimes during the season they get more rest than during the offseason. Do you think the coaching staff is running them into the ground, making them do 100 suicide sprints every night in the 3-4-5 days between games?

Cooney's shooting percentages tank because, frankly, as the season goes on, we play better competition. It's as clear as day to me. Look at OP's spliced data by level of competition. He's not shooting worse against Pitt and UL because he's tired, it's because Pitt and UL are much better than Colgate and Cornell. He's never been able to create his own shot, and ACC defenders are a higher caliber than mid-major players.

I've also stated in a recent, similar thread, that he's just not mentally tough. Going 6-8 from three against Binghamton in the Dome when we're up 30 is great, but he's never been the guy I want taking a shot down 1 against a quality opponent, even if he was on a "hot streak".

The data suggests he's just not that good.

Then why does he play well vs North Carolina or Louisville?

He's a good player, a good defender, a streaky shooter.

Bottom line...he's a good player who was overused.

 

[EastCoast2]

Then why does he play well vs North Carolina or Louisville?

He's a good player, a good defender, a streaky shooter.

Bottom line...he's a good player who was overused.

What's his career three-point % vs. Pitt, UL, UNC, Duke, UVA, Miami, FSU, and NCAA tournament games?

 

[iommi]

Then why does he play well vs North Carolina or Louisville?

He's a good player, a good defender, a streaky shooter.

Bottom line...he's a good player who was overused.

There will always be outlier games, good and bad. The trend is he doesn't shoot well as the competition gets tougher, as EastCoast said.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Then why does he play well vs North Carolina or Louisville?

He's a good player, a good defender, a streaky shooter.

Bottom line...he's a good player who was overused.

He's an average player who was overused.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

He's an average player who was overused.

He's a good system player who was overused. I truly believe in a different offense he might have had a very different college career. Some days. And other days I think like you.

 

[djcon57]

He's an average player who was overused.

fair enough...not worth it to battle on average vs good.

 

[djcon57]

What's his career three-point % vs. Pitt, UL, UNC, Duke, UVA, Miami, FSU, and NCAA tournament games?

I did it really fast so might have missed something but I got 71/271, so 26%. Not good...much worse than I thought.

 

[SoBeCuse]

fair enough...not worth it to battle on average vs good.

I'm in this camp as well. He's an average to good player who has been grossly overused. It's just not fair to everyone to have him play 35-40 MPG for almost three years now. Sort of asinine, really.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

Cooney's shooting percentages tank because, frankly, as the season goes on, we play better competition.

The conference competition that we play in dec-Jan should be no tougher or no easier than what we play in Feb-Mar. We are playing the same teams, yet his shooting percentages plummet. That suggests that there is some other factor at work.

He's never been able to create his own shot, and ACC defenders are a higher caliber than mid-major players.

And this point, as well as the one above about playing better competition, both imply that it is the level of the defense played against Cooney as another factor that explains his decreasing shooting percentages, rather than the explanation being that he is not a good shooter.

Hence, if you want to knock him for not being athletic enough to overcome having a guy in his mug all game long, that is one point of view. But that is not the same thing as saying he is not a good shooter.

 

[jdubs30]

I'd be interested to see his 3PT percentage based on halves...

 

[Forza Azzurri]

The data accounts for the increased level of competition though, at least in part. He does worse in the second half of the season as opposed to the first, and that means he's playing the some teams twice. Teams do tend to get better as the season goes on, so clearly that could be part of the reason. And I'm not saying you're wrong, just pointing out what the data says.

I agree with you on this. I think that his shooting percentage drops are a combination of fatigue, better competition (ie. better defensive players) and better game-planning...

The year with the smallest drop from Dec-Jan conference to Feb-Mar conference? 2013-14 when he averaged 32 minutes a game vs the 37 last year and this year.

 

[two3zone]

Both two3Zone's below post
View attachment 57203

and AZOrange's response:

View attachment 57204

got me thinking as to which one, if either, was correct.

So, I put together an analysis of Cooney's 3 point shooting stats:

Cooney has been a starter for three years so those were the three years I focused on:

Over those three years, his aggregate 3 point shooting percentage is 34.1%

However, if his shooting percentage is broken down by time period, the results are interesting:

From the start of the season through the end of January, his shooting percentage is 37.6%. In Feb and March, it falls by a full -10.5% to 27.1%.

I also broke it down by opponent type: OOC Easy; OOC Tough; In conference Dec-Jan and In Conference Feb-Mar.

Against cupcakes, he shoots 44.2% for his career.
Against tougher OOC opponents, his shooting percentage drops to 38.0%.
In conference in Dec-Jan, his percentage is 33.8%.
In conference in Feb-Mar, his percentage drops to 26.8%

I also looked at how he shoots against ranked opponents:

From Nov-Jan, he shoots 38.7%
In Feb-Mar, he shoots 29.1%.

I think the data shows a few things:

1. There is definitely something going on Feb-Mar that causes his production to really drop off. Realistically, his shooting percentages against conference opponents should not be so different earlier in the season versus later in the season unless there is something else going on. I suspect it is fatigue. Be interested to know what other might think the reason is.

2. Against opponents where he has more time and space, ie. our easy OOC opponents, he shoots 44.2%. Is that good? Is that not good? Does that say anything about his shooting ability? I would venture that it does.

3. There is a 3.4% point spread between his shooting percentages against our tougher OOC opponents and our Dec-Jan in-conference opponents (37.2% vs 33.8%). Is that because in-conference opponents know us better and gameplan for him? Is it random? Is he already wearing down in Jan? Is it something else?

I would venture he is a good shooter, if given time and space; his production drop-off from the tougher part of our OOC to in-conference is game-planning; he does not have the athleticism to overcome opponents focused on taking him out of the gameso he is forced to take tougher shots and his drop-off from Dec-Jan to Feb-Mar is fatigue...

Be interested to hear other, reasoned, takes.

Thank you so much for this post. When I made the topic I thought it would be cool to hear others ideas or somebody post some statistics like you did to see if there was something to his tailing off due to fatigue. My topic was not started to trash the guy as I've always been a fan of his which is why I was shocked an admin locked it for no apparent reason because it was a topic that didn't trash him and was trying to defend him to a point.

 

[We Are Syracuse]

My take on Cooney is this:
-The very first thing you need to be is athletic and be able to combine that with your skill in basketball. Cooney looks to be ripped and has a solid build but not once in his career has he used his strength or upper body to his advantage offensively. He never has driven to the hoop, and used his body to finish or create an open look. He doesn't know how to. For instance, Triche had the upper body strength and excelled at absorbing contact and finishing. Cooney just isn't good enough to do that.

-Secondly, Cooney has zero pull-up game. Negative. He's not good nor athletic enough to shoot off the dribble and go straight up and down. He's always fading or leaning off balance which is the reason why he makes 1 out of 10 when he shoots a mid-range shot

-Thirdly, his shot is not fluent nor natural. You watch great shooters like Steph and Damian Lillard, or even Buddy Hield. They shoot and it looks effortless. Cooney shot is a struggle and his rotation is inconsistent with his shot. JJ Redick had a podcast with Kyle Korver and they were talking about how fascinating it is that Damian Lillard, who they both think they are stronger than, can effortlessly shoot 30 footers and not change his shot. Some shooters are just natural, Cooney isn't. His shot is way too mechanical.

-Fourth, he can't dribble with a purpose. He has no feel on how to break a man down and create his own shot. You have to have moves or counters if you are going to be guarded so tightly. He possesses none. JJ Redick built up a lethal stepback and floater in college. TC hasn't made a step back all year it seems like. He virtually has nothing other than a spot up 3 shot- yet he really is a sub 30% shooter at that. It's the reason why his shooting throughout his career has been so poor. He just simply doesn't have enough skill or athleticism to produce at an effective rate at this level of play. Which is fine, 99% of people don't.

-

-

 

[tbonezone]

trevor cooney cooling off in the spring over his entire SU career is no longer a theory but a well documented fact.
but much like evolution and global warming and the earth being round some fans will never embrace that concept.
no matter how many statistics you feed them they still think the team will sail over the edge if trevor sits 5 minutes.

 

[jdubs30]

My take on Cooney is this:
-The very first thing you need to be is athletic and be able to combine that with your skill in basketball. Cooney looks to be ripped and has a solid build but not once in his career has he used his strength or upper body to his advantage offensively. He never has driven to the hoop, and used his body to finish or create an open look. He doesn't know how to. For instance, Triche had the upper body strength and excelled at absorbing contact and finishing. Cooney just isn't good enough to do that.

-Secondly, Cooney has zero pull-up game. Negative. He's not good nor athletic enough to shoot off the dribble and go straight up and down. He's always fading or leaning off balance which is the reason why he makes 1 out of 10 when he shoots a mid-range shot

-Thirdly, his shot is not fluent nor natural. You watch great shooters like Steph and Damian Lillard, or even Buddy Hield. They shoot and it looks effortless. Cooney shot is a struggle and his rotation is inconsistent with his shot. JJ Redick had a podcast with Kyle Korver and they were talking about how fascinating it is that Damian Lillard, who they both think they are stronger than, can effortlessly shoot 30 footers and not change his shot. Some shooters are just natural, Cooney isn't. His shot is way too mechanical.

-Fourth, he can't dribble with a purpose. He has no feel on how to break a man down and create his own shot. You have to have moves or counters if you are going to be guarded so tightly. He possesses none. JJ Redick built up a lethal stepback and floater in college. TC hasn't made a step back all year it seems like. He virtually has nothing other than a spot up 3 shot- yet he really is a sub 30% shooter at that. It's the reason why his shooting throughout his career has been so poor. He just simply doesn't have enough skill or athleticism to produce at an effective rate at this level of play. Which is fine, 99% of people don't.

-

-

Good post. It's hard to pinpoint a part of his game that has improved since he's set foot on campus. Dude is definitely jacked but is not smooth or fluid at all. I almost wonder if he got too muscular and it hurt his flexibility; he looked a lot smoother in his HS mixtapes.

 

[HoustonCuse]

I very much believe fatigue is a factor. Yes these are highly conditioned athletes, but remember they are competing against other highly conditioned athletes who are simply not asked to expend as much energy throughout games and from game to game as Cooney is. While we do play better teams as the season gets into conference play, Forza broke it down in such a way as to account for that, I think a hidden factor is that teams get better at playing their defenses as the year progresses. For instance, playing Louisville in November is very different than playing them in the last week of February.

By the way, thank you for the original post. I love to see these type of discussions fueled by real data rather than raw emotion.