Benny williams

[supp]

Then there's that study I did some years back on the top 25 winningest basketball and football coaches which found that 84% of the time, the next guy has a worse winning percentage.

Sure that's a high bar to set for the next guy but I would also add that we'll judge the next coach on the recent history of the program first. Clearing 20 wins in the regular season will be an improvement.

 

[KevMonstah]

In the last 8 years, starting in 2013... Purdue, Maryland, Arizona, Iowa, Cincinnati, and LSU have not made a Final 4... Duke has 1 final 4...Cuse has been to 2 of them... I don't think any other team has more that 2 final 4's in that time...

As the thread has drifted a bit ...

More than two? No, but Gonzaga might take offense to being left off the list, and Nova has done a little more than just make two FFs in that time.

I'm of the opinion that you're not replacing a coach in his prime, with his best teams. You're simply
looking to find a coach to carry them off the bubble, and to make the program more appealing. Start
with that.

To drift back ...

I'm hopeful Benny and Symir and Frank can find something during these next three games. I'd like
them not to have challenges winning them either.

 

[FrancoPizza]

Man to man in college ball isn't the same as it is at playgrounds. It has to be practiced to know when to switch, when to help double and many other little facets. It just as complicated to do effectively as the zone.

And yet 99.9% of the college landscape has braved the sorcery that is man to man.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I'm of the opinion that you're not replacing a coach in his prime, with his best teams. You're simply
looking to find a coach to carry them off the bubble, and to make the program more appealing. Start
with that.

Yup, this is the reality. It's brutal to realize. But that is the situation.

 

[SWC75]

Would love to hear your methodology on that, specifically on the hoops side.

Actually i updated it last spring:

Following a Legend (Updated)

A dozen years ago we were coming off a stretch of two NCAA one-and-dones and two NIT years, the second of which ended with a blown 24 lead in the Dome to UMASS- the second time they’d beaten us there. (Seemingly), everyone’s diagnosis and solution was that “the game had passed Jim Boeheim by”...

syracusefan.com

 

[AlaskaSU]

As the thread has drifted a bit ...

More than two? No, but Gonzaga might take offense to being left off the list, and Nova has done a little more than just make two FFs in that time.

I'm of the opinion that you're not replacing a coach in his prime, with his best teams. You're simply
looking to find a coach to carry them off the bubble, and to make the program more appealing. Start
with that.

To drift back ...

I'm hopeful Benny and Symir and Frank can find something during these next three games. I'd like
them not to have challenges winning them either.

No one expected Symir to score. Frank does not have to be able to create his own shots. Benny was expected to provide scoring off the bench. Symir and Frank should not be lumped in with Benny. Those two are not disappointments.

 

[DoctorBombay]

Personally, I’ve seen this movie before. It’s one of my major pet peeves w/ HCJB, right alongside the “short bench”, over utilization of the zone, and most recently, roster construction.
This entire thread can be summed up in 3 words…rinse and repeat. JMHO

 

[Sherman20]

I mean Indiana, UCLA, Louisville, Florida, Ohio State, they all had good histories and really struggled to replace their successful coaches. We will see how UNC and Duke end up, but in all likelihood Syracuse will have a lot of growing pains after JB retires, especially if we end choosing to stick “in the family” as opposed to actually getting a quality coach.

UCLA is a terrible example. Wooden was the greatest coach ever. It’s absurd to compare anyone to him. Btw, Larry Brown got UCLA to the title game in 1980, Jim freakin Harrick won a title there in 1995 and he wasn’t a good coach. Ben Howland took them to three Final Fours on the 2000s but got ran out of town by crazy, unrealistic boosters. Alford isn’t great but even he made the tourney and had them relevant most every year, and Cronin has them cooking now. Louisville replaced Crum with Pitino. That’s the model we need to follow. Louisville in Crum’s later years struggled and then they hired Pitino and he got them back to the top.

 

[Sherman20]

But for each of those that have had consistent winning teams, other former “winners” have struggled like cuse, Georgetown, Indiana, Ohio State, Texas, UConn. Even teams like Florida, Purdue and LSU have good years but they’ve haven’t been perfect by any stretch of the imagination over the last 7

Florida (since 2014): 139-92
LSU: 127- 102
Purdue (better but 2012-13, 2013-14 were bad): 145 - 72
Syracuse: 139 - 94

I’ll take Purdue’s record under Painter after JB retires. You just proved my point. He has done very well and better than Keady did in his final years there. None of this is an indictment of JB’s brilliance and what he’s done for Syracuse. My point is that there are all these fools out there that worry we’re going to turn into St. John’s or Temple or even Gtown after JB retires, but those examples are irrelevant. They are not peer programs to us. They don’t have our resources.

 

[Sherman20]

In the last 8 years, starting in 2013... Purdue, Maryland, Arizona, Iowa, Cincinnati, and LSU have not made a Final 4... Duke has 1 final 4...Cuse has been to 2 of them... I don't think any other team has more that 2 final 4's in that time...Am I missing something?... How is Syracuse not successful...Because we are not playing 3 to 4 more easy teams and padding our 25 wins?... Yeah the bubble sucks but we are getting in most times and having tourney success...Also parity exists from the bottom up and its only going to get more noticable with the portal... mid majors are more competitive... and last thing is which includes Benny and mid major teams success...Before a recruit like Benny would come in and have swagger over alot of players in the NCAA cause of his ranking and such...in the last 10 years especially that fear of 5 stars doesnt exist with lower level players.. They see these guys in AAU games and compete way before college... Mid majors are older teams and those guys don's worry about freshmen... College basketball has changed people... Cuse has changed...Give me 20 wins and deeper tourney runs.

Yes, your missing something. The discussion was about *after* JB retires, not the current state of the program. Our post season record over the past decade has been sterling. We’re one of the top 5 or 10 programs in post season success for more than a decade now. The discussion was about after JB retires and many people continuing to insist that we will be mediocre or even irrelevant as a program after JB retires and that his successor can’t even approach doing anywhere near as well as he has recently, even though we’ve struggled in the regular season for 7 years now. My point is that there are plenty of examples of transitions that have gone smoothly. You have to look at peer programs.

 

[Cuseball]

Actually i updated it last spring:

Following a Legend (Updated)

A dozen years ago we were coming off a stretch of two NCAA one-and-dones and two NIT years, the second of which ended with a blown 24 lead in the Dome to UMASS- the second time they’d beaten us there. (Seemingly), everyone’s diagnosis and solution was that “the game had passed Jim Boeheim by”...

syracusefan.com

Thanks and great analysis. I remember reviewing previously. 75% of those coaches underperformed prior levels and by a significant margin. It's not easy to keep things going. We have certainly been performing below prior levels as of the last eight years so Jimmy's winning % over that time would not be comparable. Still not easy to replace a legend and keep it going.

Cuse!

 

[Fly Rodder]

UCLA is a terrible example. Wooden was the greatest coach ever. It’s absurd to compare anyone to him. Btw, Larry Brown won a title there in 1980, Jim freakin Harrick won a title there in 1996 and he wasn’t a good coach. Ben Howland took them to three Final Fours on the 2000s but got ran out of town by crazy, unrealistic boosters. Alford isn’t great but even he made the tourney and had them relevant most every year, and Cronin has them cooking now. Louisville replaced Crum with Pitino. That’s the model we need to follow. Louisville in Crum’s later years struggled and then they hired Pitino and he got them back to the top.

Not to mention, a lot of the time there are different reasons as to why the previous coach was so successful. Some were out and out cheats and ran dirty programs. Some has to do with the college basketball landscape, which changes considerably over a 15-20 year period. The game from one era doesn't really translate equally to other eras. When Coach K and Boeheim showed up freshman had only been allowed to play for 4-5 years, the three points shot wasn't allowed for another 8-9 years, there were only 32 teams in the NCAA tourney, and in 1985 there were 20% fewer schools than now.

 

[IthacaMatt]

There was 2 5-6 year periods of golden cuse basketball in the late 80s and late 2000s where that happened consistently. Outside of that Syracuse has largely been up and down. They missed back to back tournaments in 07 and 08 haven’t done that since

Go back and look again. We made the NCAA 25 or 30 times in a row. That's not a 5 or 6 year period of being good.

 

[Cuse181]

I’ll take Purdue’s record under Painter after JB retires. You just proved my point. He has done very well and better than Keady did in his final years there. None of this is an indictment of JB’s brilliance and what he’s done for Syracuse. My point is that there are all these fools out there that worry we’re going to turn into St. John’s or Temple or even Gtown after JB retires, but those examples are irrelevant. They are not peer programs to us. They don’t have our resources.

It’s not wrong to worry about that, this is massive changing of the guard when JB leaves, UConn struggled outside of Ollie’s NC (I know ridiculous to say), are they a peer program? They hit the below .500 before becoming even semi relevant again.

Go back and look again. We made the NCAA 25 or 30 times in a row. That's not a 5 or 6 year period of being good.

it’s two 5-6 year periods of being great and expecting top 3-4 seeds

 

[bozophobe]

Thanks and great analysis. I remember reviewing previously. 75% of those coaches underperformed prior levels and by a significant margin. It's not easy to keep things going. We have certainly been performing below prior levels as of the last eight years so Jimmy's winning % over that time would not be comparable. Still not easy to replace a legend and keep it going.

Cuse!

He may be a legend, but is he an actively-performing legend?

 

[SWC75]

I'm of the opinion that you're not replacing a coach in his prime, with his best teams. You're simply
looking to find a coach to carry them off the bubble, and to make the program more appealing. Start
with that.

Just like the football program in 2005...

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Actually i updated it last spring:

Following a Legend (Updated)

A dozen years ago we were coming off a stretch of two NCAA one-and-dones and two NIT years, the second of which ended with a blown 24 lead in the Dome to UMASS- the second time they’d beaten us there. (Seemingly), everyone’s diagnosis and solution was that “the game had passed Jim Boeheim by”...

syracusefan.com

Thank you sir, and stellar analysis as always.

I did note that you used the outgoing coach's overall record/win percentage.

Which does make sense evaluating the total body of work.

Part of my assertion is that JB's recent record is less impressive than the overall body.

I think we'll be beyond fortunate if the coach that follows JB has an overall win percentage that is higher.

That said, I do think that the goal of the hire is to surpass that win percentage of JB's more recent teams, and in particular, this and the last 7 or 8 seasons.

 

[SWC75]

Thanks and great analysis. I remember reviewing previously. 75% of those coaches underperformed prior levels and by a significant margin. It's not easy to keep things going. We have certainly been performing below prior levels as of the last eight years so Jimmy's winning % over that time would not be comparable. Still not easy to replace a legend and keep it going.

Cuse!

So you looked each case up and determined that "75% of those coaches underperformed prior levels and by a significant margin"?

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

This is operating under the assumption that we don't have a "quality coach" in the family. Not sure how you can possibly ascertain the truth of this assumption.

Well, none of them can recruit, as I understand the complaints

 

[GucciCuse]

It all started with this:

View attachment 211758

Blue shorts????

 

[BillSU]

He's a freshmen. The only thing I'm worried about is him not enjoying Syracuse and him transferring. The game will come to him.

Years ago while discussing a game in a presser in an off comment JB stated that Freshman are not usually ready to play their first year. They need seasoning and experience and development. There are exceptions a la Carmelo Anthony.

 

[SUskibum]

It’s not wrong to worry about that, this is massive changing of the guard when JB leaves, UConn struggled outside of Ollie’s NC (I know ridiculous to say), are they a peer program? They hit the below .500 before becoming even semi relevant again.

it’s two 5-6 year periods of being great and expecting top 3-4 seeds

24 top 5 seeds in the past 43 years. That’s top 20 finishes 56% of the time over 4+ decades.

 

[Cusefan0307]

 

[Cuse181]

24 top 5 seeds in the past 43 years. That’s top 20 finishes 56% of the time over 4+ decades.

And I would argue they were only expected those 2 5-6 year periods.

 

[supp]

You know it's not so much Kadary Richmond-itis I fear as it is Quincy Guerrier-itis. Williams has a path to a starting position next year. But Quincy had a starting role and left. We can debate the wisdom of that move but if we can't convince the kids we have that we can develop them for the next level and get them to stay, we're going to remain mediocre and short on depth every year.

Still, I hope Waters is right.