Bowl Math

[Consigliere]

For those hoping for an APR Waiver that would send a 5-win Cuse team to a bowl game, here's the current math:

There are 129 FBS schools fighting for 80 available bowl slots.

38 schools are already bowl eligible with 6+ wins
7 schools have 5 wins and a better APR than Cuse

That leaves 35 slots to be filled before a 5 win Syracuse team would get a berth.

1 team has 8 losses and is eliminated from bowl consideration
5 teams have 7 losses and lower APR than Cuse.


129 - 38 - 7 - 1 - 5 = 78 candidates mathematically alive and potentially ahead of Syracuse for those 35 slots. 17 of these drop out with 1 more loss. Pool should start shrinking significantly next week.

 

[upperdeck]

i counted 87 teams that could be getting to 5+ wins right now without some team winning beyond the norm. really important to see what happens with ND, bc/texas/oregon/TT winning didnt help. uconn/bc still play and might knock one or the other out.

 

[IHeartSUFball]

So this doesn't sound promising I assume at 5 wins

 

[Chris02M]

Too early to say.hopefully we win 6 to make it not matter

 

[Deuga]

After we beat Clemson this Saturday on ABC this whole bowl math thing will look a lot more interesting.

 

[Briancuse]

Not to be one of those guys, but 5 win teams shouldn't go to bowl games.

 

[TheCusian]

Not to be one of those guys, but 5 win teams shouldn't go to bowl games.

Agree 100%. It's just about the extra practice.

 

[Consigliere]

Agree 100%. It's just about the extra practice.

Guess what you are really saying is that there shouldn't be 40 Bowl games. I think it dilutes the prestige with calling yourself a "bowl team" but other than that don't have much of an issue with it.

 

[Consigliere]

So this doesn't sound promising I assume at 5 wins

Consider there are 4 full weekends left and 17 teams that fall off the table with 1 more loss I'd put the odds at about 60 - 40 that we go bowling with one more win. With the youth on this team and the ongoing adjustment to new systems, those 20 practices would be valuable. Plan on updating this weekly.

Of course with 4 more wins the math becomes moot.

 

[HtownOrange]

I still think we shock the CFB world with wins over Pitt and NCState and would not be surprised at an upset win over Clemson or FSU (20% Clemson, 80% FSU).

 

[Briancuse]

I still think we shock the CFB world with wins over Pitt and NCState and would not be surprised at an upset win over Clemson or FSU (20% Clemson, 80% FSU).

I don't think wins over Pitt and Nc State would shock many people, it wouldn't shock me.

 

[HtownOrange]

I don't think wins over Pitt and Nc State would shock many people, it wouldn't shock me.

Agree, I won't be shocked, yet too many outsiders (read: non-SU followers) will be shocked if Syracuse wins another game.

 

[TheCusian]

Guess what you are really saying is that there shouldn't be 40 Bowl games. I think it dilutes the prestige with calling yourself a "bowl team" but other than that don't have much of an issue with it.

I don't watch many other non-new years or playoff bowls unless we are playing. But I do think it's dumb that 1/2 the CFB teams gets extra practices and the other half doesn't.

But I don't care either way otherwise.

 

[Briancuse]

Agree, I won't be shocked, yet too many outsiders (read: non-SU followers) will be shocked if Syracuse wins another game.

To be honest the way Nc State is playing, it would be surprising if we lost to them at home, Pitt will be tough, but they are beatable.

 

[Jake]

I'll add this: There are 21 teams that could end up with 5 wins that are ahead of us now in APR rankings. 6 teams already have 5 wins. 6 teams have 4 wins 9 have 3 or less. In two weeks I would bet that list of 21 is down to single digits.

Here's the list:

Duke. 3-5
Northwestern 4-4
Vandy 4-4
Army 5-3
Air Force 5-3
GaTech 5-3
North Texas 4-4
UCF 4-4
Stanford 5-3
Illinois 2-6
Navy 5-2
Boston Coll. 4-4
Indiana 4-4
Utah St. 3-5
Missouri 2-6
Mich st 2-6
Maryland 5-3
Notre Dame 3-5
Virginia 2-6
Rice 1-7
Utep 2-6

 

[CuseOnly]

To be honest the way Nc State is playing, it would be surprising if we lost to them at home, Pitt will be tough, but they are beatable.

NC State just got beat by BC, it would really really surprise me if we lost to them at home.

Edit: Sorry I thought you said it wouldn't be surprising if we lost to them at home.

Carry on.

 

[OrangeTarheel]

Agree 100%. It's just about the extra practice.

Which raises the question - why not just allow teams the extra practices? All teams. Or the NCAA could institute some inane system for who gets awarded the extra practices. Why make the practice of getting to a bowl game a "double injury" to those who don't make it? (First injury being the loss of practice, second injury being loss of revenue - I could see the third being the loss of prestige or whatever from making a bowl.)

 

[JoeSU]

Not to be one of those guys, but 5 win teams shouldn't go to bowl games.

Not deserving?
By that logic, basketball teams that don't have 20 wins should never be allowed in the NCAA tournament.

 

[JoeSU]

Agree 100%. It's just about the extra practice.

It's also a reward for the players and coaches, and gives the hard-core supporters something fun to look forward to after the regular season ends.
I think the optic is also just as important, since appearing in a bowl game provides additional exposure on national TV. Most college football fans can't remember who the three 5-win teams were who won their bowl games last year (or what bowls they played in), but you can bet the schools display those trophies prominently and use it as a recruiting tool. And some day the players will look back fondly on their experience.

 

[leftytg]

Which raises the question - why not just allow teams the extra practices? All teams. Or the NCAA could institute some inane system for who gets awarded the extra practices. Why make the practice of getting to a bowl game a "double injury" to those who don't make it? (First injury being the loss of practice, second injury being loss of revenue - I could see the third being the loss of prestige or whatever from making a bowl.)

because the NCAA insists on maintaining the illusion that these are "student athletes" rather than money making vehicles. If a team has a bowl game to prepare for, then allowing practice makes sense. The optics, from the NCAA's perspective, don't look good if they allow all teams to have "bowl practices" regardless of whether or not they play in a bowl.

 

[sutomcat]

I adding the remaining schedule, comments and projections for each contender. There are lots of things that could happen but if expected results occur, and Syracuse can find a way to get to 5 wins, I like their chances to go bowling.

Duke 3-5
VT, UNC, at Pitt, at Miami
G Tech was their best chance to get a fourth win. I think they will probably win one of these but their defense is so awful, I don't see a 5th win
Projection: Out

Northwestern 4-4
Wisconsin, at Purdue, at Minnesota, Illinois
I see them beating Illinois at home and losing the rest of the games. SU fans should root from them to beat Purdue so they get to 6 wins. That one should be very close.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)

Vandy 4-4
at Auburn, at Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Don't see them beating Auburn on the Plains or Tennessee, but they could win at Missouri or against Ole Miss at home. Would guess they will be narrow underdogs for both games. My guess is that they split with them but they easily could lose both.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)

Army 5-3
Air Force, ND (San Antonio), Morgan State, Navy
They will surely beat Morgan State to get to 6 wins but already have a win against Lafayette, so I think they need to beat someone else to get out of the 5 win pool. Air Force appears the most likely 6th win. I think they will do it to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out

Air Force 5-3
at Army, Colorado St, at San Jose St, Boise State
I think Army beats them. The other games could all be pretty close. My guess is they get a win against Colorado St or St Jose St to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out

GaTech 5-3
at UNC, at VT, Virginia, at Georgia
I think they beat Virginia at home to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out

North Texas 4-4
Louisiana Tech, at Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, at UTEP
I think their only win left is against lowly UTEP on the road.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)

UCF 4-4
Tulane, Cincinnati, Tulsa, at USF
Tulane should be a win. I think they beat Cincy in a close game as well to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out

Stanford 5-3
Oregon State, at Oregon, at California, Rice
OSU and Rice = two sure wins = no problem here.
Projection: Out

Illinois 2-6
Michigan State, at Wisconsin, Iowa, at Northwestern
They might beat Iowa. Don't see any other wins here. And they need 3.
Projection: Out

Navy 5-2
Notre Dame (Jacksonville), Tulsa, at East Carolina, at SMU, Army
No guaranteed wins, lots of close games though. They should be able to get at least one win, probably 2.
Projection: Out

Boston Coll. 4-4
Louisville, at FSU, UConn, at Wake Forest
Two more losses, then two close games. I think they beat UConn, who appears to have given up, and then win at Wake to end the season. That BC-Wake game might have huge bowl implications for Syracuse.
Projection: Out (6 wins)

Indiana 4-4
at Rutgers, Penn State, at Michigan, Purdue
W, L, L, W. That gives them 6 wins.
Projection: Out

Utah St. 3-5
at Wyoming, New Mexico, at Nevada, at BYU
I have no feel for these MWC games. Utah St is 3-5 (1-4)
Wyoming is 6-2 (4-0), New Mexico is 5-3 (3-1), Nevada is probably their best chance for a win at 3-5 (1-3), and BYU is 4-4 against a tough schedule.
I think they only win at Nevada.
Projection: Out

Missouri 2-6
at South Carolina, Vanderbilt, at Tennessee, Arkansas
I see them losing at South Carolina, beating Vandy at home, losing at Tennessee and beating Arkansas at home. Three really close games where they get 2 wins.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)

Mich St 2-6
at Illinois, Rutgers, Ohio State, at Penn State
Let's assume they win the first two and lose the third. They have to beat Penn State to get to 5 wins. On the road. It could happen...this will be another big game to follow on 11/26. I say they lose.
Projection: Out

Maryland 5-3
at Michigan, Ohio State, at Nebraska, Rutgers
3 punches in the nose and then some ice cream to sooth the pain.
Projection: Out (6 wins)

Notre Dame 3-5
Navy (Jacksonville), Army (San Antonio), Virginia Tech, at USC
Some tough games to call there. They could easily go 7-5 but even 3-9 is possible too. I see them beating Navy and USC to get to 5 wins but announcing they will not play in a bowl game. Heck, they might do this even if they get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out (5 wins but too proud to play on)

Virginia 2-6
at Wake Forest, Miami, at Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech
They have lost 3 in a row. Might beat Wake and G Tech to get to 4. Can't see them winning 3 of 4 though.
Projection: Out

Rice 1-7
Florida Atlantic, at Charlotte, UTEP, at Stanford
Well, they aren't beating Stanford and that is enough to eliminate them.
Projection: Out

UTEP 2-6
Houston Baptist, at Florida Atlantic, at Rice, North Texas. Another awful CUSA team but the first three teams are awful too, maybe even worse than UTEP. I already projected North Texas to beat them and will hold to that. But I also see Rice beating them.
Projection: Out (4 wins)

5 Win Club

1. Northwestern
2.Vanderbilt
3. North Texas
4. Missouri
5. Syracuse*

*=(if they can get to 5 wins)

 

[TheCusian]

It's also a reward for the players and coaches, and gives the hard-core supporters something fun to look forward to after the regular season ends.
I think the optic is also just as important, since appearing in a bowl game provides additional exposure on national TV. Most college football fans can't remember who the three 5-win teams were who won their bowl games last year (or what bowls they played in), but you can bet the schools display those trophies prominently and use it as a recruiting tool. And some day the players will look back fondly on their experience.

Agreed. I should have added the exposure. And it's certainly a nice reward for the players and coaches.

I don't think it's bad for our team to go with 5 or 6 wins at all - but I could care less that other teams get those things.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Not deserving?
By that logic, basketball teams that don't have 20 wins should never be allowed in the NCAA tournament.

How is that remotely comparable? 5 wins means you LOST MORE GAMES THAN YOU WON.

It's a joke. 5-7 teams should NEVER get to go to a bowl.

 

[IHeartSUFball]

I adding the remaining schedule, comments and projections for each contender. There are lots of things that could happen but if expected results occur, and Syracuse can find a way to get to 5 wins, I like their chances to go bowling.

Duke 3-5
VT, UNC, at Pitt, at Miami
G Tech was their best chance to get a fourth win. I think they will probably win one of these but their defense is so awful, I don't see a 5th win
Projection: Out

Northwestern 4-4
Wisconsin, at Purdue, at Minnesota, Illinois
I see them beating Illinois at home and losing the rest of the games. SU fans should root from them to beat Purdue so they get to 6 wins. That one should be very close.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)

Vandy 4-4
at Auburn, at Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Don't see them beating Auburn on the Plains or Tennessee, but they could win at Missouri or against Ole Miss at home. Would guess they will be narrow underdogs for both games. My guess is that they split with them but they easily could lose both.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)

Army 5-3
Air Force, ND (San Antonio), Morgan State, Navy
They will surely beat Morgan State to get to 6 wins but already have a win against Lafayette, so I think they need to beat someone else to get out of the 5 win pool. Air Force appears the most likely 6th win. I think they will do it to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out

Air Force 5-3
at Army, Colorado St, at San Jose St, Boise State
I think Army beats them. The other games could all be pretty close. My guess is they get a win against Colorado St or St Jose St to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out

GaTech 5-3
at UNC, at VT, Virginia, at Georgia
I think they beat Virginia at home to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out

North Texas 4-4
Louisiana Tech, at Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, at UTEP
I think their only win left is against lowly UTEP on the road.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)

UCF 4-4
Tulane, Cincinnati, Tulsa, at USF
Tulane should be a win. I think they beat Cincy in a close game as well to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out

Stanford 5-3
Oregon State, at Oregon, at California, Rice
OSU and Rice = two sure wins = no problem here.
Projection: Out

Illinois 2-6
Michigan State, at Wisconsin, Iowa, at Northwestern
They might beat Iowa. Don't see any other wins here. And they need 3.
Projection: Out

Navy 5-2
Notre Dame (Jacksonville), Tulsa, at East Carolina, at SMU, Army
No guaranteed wins, lots of close games though. They should be able to get at least one win, probably 2.
Projection: Out

Boston Coll. 4-4
Louisville, at FSU, UConn, at Wake Forest
Two more losses, then two close games. I think they beat UConn, who appears to have given up, and then win at Wake to end the season. That BC-Wake game might have huge bowl implications for Syracuse.
Projection: Out (6 wins)

Indiana 4-4
at Rutgers, Penn State, at Michigan, Purdue
W, L, L, W. That gives them 6 wins.
Projection: Out

Utah St. 3-5
at Wyoming, New Mexico, at Nevada, at BYU
I have no feel for these MWC games. Utah St is 3-5 (1-4)
Wyoming is 6-2 (4-0), New Mexico is 5-3 (3-1), Nevada is probably their best chance for a win at 3-5 (1-3), and BYU is 4-4 against a tough schedule.
I think they only win at Nevada.
Projection: Out

Missouri 2-6
at South Carolina, Vanderbilt, at Tennessee, Arkansas
I see them losing at South Carolina, beating Vandy at home, losing at Tennessee and beating Arkansas at home. Three really close games where they get 2 wins.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)

Mich St 2-6
at Illinois, Rutgers, Ohio State, at Penn State
Let's assume they win the first two and lose the third. They have to beat Penn State to get to 5 wins. On the road. It could happen...this will be another big game to follow on 11/26. I say they lose.
Projection: Out

Maryland 5-3
at Michigan, Ohio State, at Nebraska, Rutgers
3 punches in the nose and then some ice cream to sooth the pain.
Projection: Out (6 wins)

Notre Dame 3-5
Navy (Jacksonville), Army (San Antonio), Virginia Tech, at USC
Some tough games to call there. They could easily go 7-5 but even 3-9 is possible too. I see them beating Navy and USC to get to 5 wins but announcing they will not play in a bowl game. Heck, they might do this even if they get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out (5 wins but too proud to play on)

Virginia 2-6
at Wake Forest, Miami, at Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech
They have lost 3 in a row. Might beat Wake and G Tech to get to 4. Can't see them winning 3 of 4 though.
Projection: Out

Rice 1-7
Florida Atlantic, at Charlotte, UTEP, at Stanford
Well, they aren't beating Stanford and that is enough to eliminate them.
Projection: Out

UTEP 2-6
Houston Baptist, at Florida Atlantic, at Rice, North Texas. Another awful CUSA team but the first three teams are awful too, maybe even worse than UTEP. I already projected North Texas to beat them and will hold to that. But I also see Rice beating them.
Projection: Out (4 wins)

5 Win Club

1. Northwestern
2.Vanderbilt
3. North Texas
4. Missouri
5. Syracuse*

*=(if they can get to 5 wins)

I don't think missou get to 5 but bc will get 5. Them beating state sucked. 3 teams got in last year at 5... I wonder what it's looking like this year how many spots.

 

[TheCusian]

How is that remotely comparable? 5 wins means you LOST MORE GAMES THAN YOU WON.

It's a joke. 5-7 teams should NEVER get to go to a bowl.

Depends on how you see bowl games vs tourney invites too.

Bowl games are glorified scrimmages - much closer in nature to the NIT. The tourney is a chance to play for the national championship.

When there are 60 bowl games they kind of lose their prestige.