Bracket-liciousness

[pearl31]

Not real shocking I suppose but neither Lunardi or Palm have SU even in the next 4 out category in their new brackets today - as in, nowhere on the radar.
Very early, and there would appear to be a number of questionable inclusions in their brackets, but yeah this team has a bunch of work to do

 

[RandygoCuse]

Not real shocking I suppose but neither Lunardi or Palm have SU even in the next 4 out category in their new brackets today - as in, nowhere on the radar.
Very early, and there would appear to be a number of questionable inclusions in their brackets, but yeah this team has a bunch of work to do

As you mentioned, it's early, but it's still fun to speculate. I'm also interested in seeing if Northwestern can fight their way in. If they make the tournament, the school will go nuts. And I think Chris Collins will have earned a passport to wherever he wants.

 

[br801]

Not real shocking I suppose but neither Lunardi or Palm have SU even in the next 4 out category in their new brackets today - as in, nowhere on the radar.
Very early, and there would appear to be a number of questionable inclusions in their brackets, but yeah this team has a bunch of work to do

With the conference schedule ahead, this team will have ample opportunity to earn an NCAAT bid and even secure a reasonable seeding, regardless of what any of our OOC opponents do going forward. Whether they can actually pull this off remains to be seen. The talent is there, but the margin for error to defeat good teams is razor thin, and figures to remain so. I'm crossing my fingers for good health and better (and more consistent) rebounding. We'll see.

 

[Nicknack]

Also, keep in mind that if Boeheim comes back and we become a better team (starting with a win against UNC), the selection committee should take Boeheim's absence under consideration. A coach's absence should be viewed the same as a key player's absence.

 

[Marsh01]

Not real shocking I suppose but neither Lunardi or Palm have SU even in the next 4 out category in their new brackets today - as in, nowhere on the radar.
Very early, and there would appear to be a number of questionable inclusions in their brackets, but yeah this team has a bunch of work to do

If we lost tomorrow we will be on the NIT bubble.

We need 7 wins in the ACC just to make the NIT

 

[pearl31]

We need 7 wins in the ACC just to make the NIT

actually it's 6, if we're keeping score :noidea:

 

[pearl31]

just a little odd that joey boy has teams like Notre Dame, Wichita St and Florida safely in (arguably worse resumes than ours *right now*) while we're apparently not even on the bubble

 

[RandygoCuse]

Also, keep in mind that if Boeheim comes back and we become a better team (starting with a win against UNC), the selection committee should take Boeheim's absence under consideration. A coach's absence should be viewed the same as a key player's absence.

Would they take it into consideration or would they argue against that as this is a matter of discipline and not health?

 

[pearl31]

Would they take it into consideration or would they argue against that as this is a matter of discipline and not health?

One of the committee members went on record saying JB's absence would be considered

 

[jncuse]

One of the committee members went on record saying JB's absence would be considered

I am not going to dismiss it as could influence... but I would think its an item they could consider but will not. In my observations, they try to not play god, and just measure W/L's.

Either way this will not be a factor that comes into play unless we are on the last spots of the bubble, which we are not right now.

 

[jncuse]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

As I have been doing for a while, I do my current tourney projections based on the metric data in "RPI Forecast". This takes your current results, and projects the rest of the season based on your Sagarin rating. As the Sagarin rating is also based on what you have done so far, I view this as a model that takes what you have done and puts them in a full season.

The reasons for doing a projection based on the above data rather than actual data are rather simple:
1) Many inconsistencies in OOC schedule
2) The conference you play in is key in determining if you will make it -- some teams may be doing great now, but they will not get the top 50 opportunities that other schools are. And this is just not a P6 vs Mid Major thing.. some P6 are very different than others in this regard.
3) When you evaluate a small amount of data, some with weak schedules, biases come into play. Power Programs in the "As of Now" approach are typically fit into a convenient spot that makes sense for the ability, but not for what they have done.

The natural weakness is that you are using Sagarin to compute the rest of your results.

But here are some of the key things that I am seeing right now:

1. The model currently predicts Syracuse at 7-11 in the ACC. That would get us an RPI of around 92, with 4 top 50 wins. Clearly not enough. I did play around with their wizard a few backs and 9-9 would get us in the mid 50's -- given our OOC quality wins (we hope) that would probably be enough.

One thing that we can see is that the RPI (and I don't think it is an end all number thankfully) will not be that kind to us this year. Wake Forest who is projected to go 6-12 in the ACC, would end up with a higher RPI than us at 88.

But as per the data above at 17-14, 7-11 in the ACC, we are at least 12 teams out of the tournament.

2. The PAC-12 is going to to be all over the bubble and the middle of the seed lines. They may get 7 or even a far shot at 8 seeds this year -- even without a power team. This is not going to be reflected in the "As of Now" Tourney Picture, but it will start to happen as the season progresses. They did quite well as a conference in the OOC>

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/P12.html

8 of the 12 teams are expected to have RPI's of 51 or better. 11 of the 12, RPI's of 87 or better. Basically, a bunch of decent teams are going to beat each other up, and create a whole bunch of top 50 wins for each other, solid top 100 records, and there will be no bad losses.

 

[djcon57]

One of the committee members went on record saying JB's absence would be considered

Really? Where was that at?

Not doubting, but I thought I saw the opposite

 

[Nicknack]

The only way I see it coming into play is if there is a fairly stark contrast between what we did under Hop and what we do under Boeheim. Our W's and L's will have to cause the committee to pause and consider, what "could" have happened had Boeheim been around those games. Little to no difference in W's and L's = little to no consideration by the committee. The irony is that if the team improves considerably under Boeheim we won't really need the committee's consideration except it could help with a better seed perhaps.

This is all a long ways out. For now, I'm just hoping that we don't dig ourselves a hole we can't get out of and that starts with beating Clempson and then upsetting UNC on Jimmy's court. I can absolutely see that happening - third time should be a charm.

 

[Nicknack]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

As I have been doing for a while, I do my current tourney projections based on the metric data in "RPI Forecast". This takes your current results, and projects the rest of the season based on your Sagarin rating. As the Sagarin rating is also based on what you have done so far, I view this as a model that takes what you have done and puts them in a full season.

The reasons for doing a projection based on the above data rather than actual data are rather simple:
1) Many inconsistencies in OOC schedule
2) The conference you play in is key in determining if you will make it -- some teams may be doing great now, but they will not get the top 50 opportunities that other schools are. And this is just not a P6 vs Mid Major thing.. some P6 are very different than others in this regard.
3) When you evaluate a small amount of data, some with weak schedules, biases come into play. Power Programs in the "As of Now" approach are typically fit into a convenient spot that makes sense for the ability, but not for what they have done.

The natural weakness is that you are using Sagarin to compute the rest of your results.

But here are some of the key things that I am seeing right now:

1. The model currently predicts Syracuse at 7-11 in the ACC. That would get us an RPI of around 92, with 4 top 50 wins. Clearly not enough. I did play around with their wizard a few backs and 9-9 would get us in the mid 50's -- given our OOC quality wins (we hope) that would probably be enough.

One thing that we can see is that the RPI (and I don't think it is an end all number thankfully) will not be that kind to us this year. Wake Forest who is projected to go 6-12 in the ACC, would end up with a higher RPI than us at 88.

But as per the data above at 17-14, 7-11 in the ACC, we are at least 12 teams out of the tournament.

2. The PAC-12 is going to to be all over the bubble and the middle of the seed lines. They may get 7 or even a far shot at 8 seeds this year -- even without a power team. This is not going to be reflected in the "As of Now" Tourney Picture, but it will start to happen as the season progresses. They did quite well as a conference in the OOC>

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/P12.html

8 of the 12 teams are expected to have RPI's of 51 or better. 11 of the 12, RPI's of 87 or better. Basically, a bunch of decent teams are going to beat each other up, and create a whole bunch of top 50 wins for each other, solid top 100 records, and there will be no bad losses.

What a downer you are. Damn.

Just kidding... nice bit of work although I wish it looked more positive. I guess we just have to do better than 7-11, huh? I still believe 9 wins is very do-able!

 

[pearl31]

I still believe 9 wins is very do-able!

So do I. And I think a win or two in the ACC tourney on top of the .500 in-conference is very doable as well - we'd have a decent shot at that point

 

[jncuse]

What a downer you are. Damn.

Just kidding... nice bit of work although I wish it looked more positive. I guess we just have to do better than 7-11, huh? I still believe 9 wins is very do-able!

As I said the real limitation of the model is that it relies on Sagarin to give you one team record, that may in fact be surpassable as you point out.

But as a whole. I really like it because it really allows you to see conference trends and what conferences should do well. And it gives you a "Goal" for the conference you are in. I believe we can do 9 or 10.

 

[pearl31]

As I said the real limitation of the model is that it relies on Sagarin to give you one team record, that may be surpassable. I really like it because it really allows you to see conference trends and what conferences should do well. And it gives you a "Goal" for the conference you are in.

But the records within those conferences may certainly change. We can do 9.

hey jn, it would seem that our one glaring What loss is outweighing our two good OOC wins right now - is that a fair assessment? I mean, I look around at a Wichita St. or a Notre Dame, who don't have one win as good as our two yet are being projected as in the tourney right now

 

[Knicks411]

The Wisconsin loss is pretty bad too. They're 59 in Ken Pom. Gtown is 68, but at least that was on the road.

 

[pearl31]

The Wisconsin loss is pretty bad too. They're 59 in Ken Pom. Gtown is 68, but at least that was on the road.

but a loss to a team inside of 100 isn't horrible, especially when we have 3 top-50 Ws already - a loss to a sub-200 team on the other hand...

 

[Cusefan0307]

I still think we can get to 10. We have a home stretch at the end of Jan to beginning of Feb where we probably need to win all four to get there, but it's doable. I'm more sold after listening to Francis very level headed podcast.

 

[jncuse]

hey jn, it would seem that our one glaring What loss is outweighing our two good OOC wins right now - is that a fair assessment? I mean, I look around at a Wichita St. or a Notre Dame, who don't have one win as good as our two yet are being projected as in the tourney right now

I think you are correct in your assessment.

The bracket doer is trying to separate teams with 13 or 14 games played and many of the data points within those games are basically irrelevant (Cupcake games), unless you lose . Most teams only have 3-8 meaningful games to try to determine whether they are in or not and we turned what should have been one of those "useless to evaluate" games into something meaningful... in a bad way.

And since there are less data points to compare teams now vs. end of the season, it probably hurts us more in an "As of now" approach.

 

[sugrad68]

So do I. And I think a win or two in the ACC tourney on top of the .500 in-conference is very doable as well - we'd have a decent shot at that point

Which games do you think SU will win in the ACC? I see this team winning 7-8 at most and I predict 6 wins. Especially if G and Cooney are playing every minute of every game.

 

[jncuse]

Which games do you think SU will win in the ACC? I see this team winning 7-8 at most and I predict 6 wins. Especially if G and Cooney are playing every minute of every game.

I guess it really depends if you see the games this weekend as encouraging or not. For the first 80% of the games they were encouraging. Then we fell apart. You can see the good or the bad in it, and I have a hard time taking my position -- it's hard to argue with someone who sees the explosion as a real issue that could persist.

These were also 2 games that we were supposed to lose on paper. But we are not going to win every game that we are favoured in, so you have to pull out some games that you are the dog in to get to 10 wins. And we did blow a chance to at least come away with 1 quality road win.

So even though it is fair to say we can't be expected to win either of those ndividual game, at the end of the season we need to win a few of these games that we are not favoured in. It was a blown opportunity.

BTW - I notice my point wanders around with no real stance or conclusion. I will leave it at that. That is sort of where i am with this team right now. I probably lean a little more to 6/7 because it is easy to feel vulnerable right now, but I am not going to strongly discount 9 or 10 either.

 

[sugrad68]

I guess it really depends if you see the games this weekend as encouraging or not. For the first 80% of the games they were encouraging. Then we fell apart. You can see the good or the bad in it, and I have a hard time taking my position -- it's hard to argue with someone who sees the explosion as a real issue that could persist.

These were also 2 games that we were supposed to lose on paper. But we are not going to win every game that we are favoured in, so you have to pull out some games that you are the dog in to get to 10 wins. And we did blow a chance to at least come away with 1 quality road win.

So even though it is fair to say we can't be expected to win either of those ndividual game, at the end of the season we need to win a few of these games that we are not favoured in. It was a blown opportunity.

BTW - I notice my point wanders around with no real stance or conclusion. I will leave it at that. That is sort of where i am with this team right now. I probably lean a little more to 6/7 because it is easy to feel vulnerable right now, but I am not going to strongly discount 9 or 10 either.

What was depressing about the Miami game is that we should have been ahead by 15-20 points in the first half. Hard to believe how poorly Miami played and we were only up by 8 at the half. Coleman can't even make a layup and he had a guard rip the ball out of his hands on a rebound at a pivotal point in the game. I love Lydon but he is not a center. Cooney let a Miami player shoot an uncontested 3 which gave Miami the lead for good. Gbinije is not a point guard and by playing him up front he can't rebound. Roberson can't make an open 10 foot shot and missed several layups. Sorry, but I am really down on this team right now. Hopefully the Clemson game will change my attitude. Whatever happens, I bleed Orange.

 

[AZOrange]

Which games do you think SU will win in the ACC? I see this team winning 7-8 at most and I predict 6 wins. Especially if G and Cooney are playing every minute of every game.

I'd love to know too. I only see 8 right now. Do the exercise...the schedule is BRUTAL