Bubble Watch - Conference Tourney Week (Mar 7 to March 9)

[jncuse]

I will do a summary tomorrow night of how I think team's around the bubble stand.

I hope that Chris02m, who understands the process well, posts his evaluation of what teams need to do.

There have been a few good posts in the weekend thread of what needs to happen around us if we lose (Pearl had a few). Maybe he can re-attach his. I had a few posts on it, and I will re-attach my interpretation.

But over the next 2 days it will generally be quiet in terms of what is happening around us until the 12:00 game.

The chances of us getting in with a loss to Pitt are not 0%. They are not 50% either but there is so much stuff that can happen. I probably won't debate it much until we now what happens in that Pitt game. Just present the info of what teams need to do (or others like Chris) and follow it.

If we beat I think it is 100% -- but maybe some that are following the entire field disagree and not looking at us in a vacuum. Welcome that discussion.

 

[Chris02M]

i have completed my field evaluation and am finalizing the last few bubble spots as we speak

 

[Dave85]

i have completed my field evaluation and am finalizing the last few bubble spots as we speak

I'm looking forward to it.

 

[Chris02M]

my current last 10 at large teams in order:
Vanderbilt
Pitt
Oregon State
Syracuse
Vcu
Cincinnati
UConn
St Josephs
St Bonaventure
Tulsa

just out:
Wichita State
George Washington
Michigan
Florida

Gonzaga
Ohio State
Houston
FSU

 

[Dave85]

my current last 10 at large teams in order:
Vanderbilt
Pitt
Oregon State
Syracuse
Vcu
Cincinnati
UConn
St Josephs
St Bonaventure
Tulsa

just out:
Wichita State
George Washington
Michigan
Florida

Gonzaga
Ohio State
Houston
FSU

How did you come to this list?

Here's an interesting ranking site: http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

 

[jdubs30]

Great post...it's good to have an idea of who we really need to root against next week -- it looks like we have a SMALL buffer.

I had a thought -- what if the Pitt game is close, either way, say 60-58 and it comes down to the last possession, would that weigh more on the committee's mind?

 

[Chris02M]

How did you come to this list?

Here's an interesting ranking site: http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

looked at a bunch of data including rpi,sos,road wins,top 25 rpi wins,top 50,top 100, bad losses(below 100 rpi)

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[pearl31]

I had a thought -- what if the Pitt game is close, either way, say 60-58 and it comes down to the last possession, would that weigh more on the committee's mind?

It sure could.

 

[pearl31]

What I posted in the previous bubble-watch thread...

More and more I think it's going to come down to two things (if we lose to Pitt):

- How the "just off the radar" P5 (plus Big East) teams do in their conf tourneys: Ohio St, Michigan, Northwestern, Ga.Tech,Va Tech, Fla St, Stanford, Washington, Creighton, Maquette, Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia. These are the teams we want to lose as early as possible in their tourneys. (a few of those listed would probably have to win their tourney but would still get strong consideration if they were to make it to the champ game or even Semis)

- How the committee views the AAC and A10. Just a big bubble mess with those teams right now. There is no lock in the AAC (Cinci probably closest to it after beating SMU today) and in the A10 really only Dayton is a lock (as jn says above, many regard St.Joes as lock but I don't think so). AAC could get anywhere from 1-3 teams, A10 could get anywhere from 2-4 teams.

And, obviously, if a team like NC St in the ACC or UCLA in the Pac12 or Penn St in the B1G goes crazy and wins their tourney - well, you know.

And lastly need St.Marys/Gonzaga, Ark St, Monmouth, San Diego St and Valpo to win their tourneys to keep it at Wich St as the only potential lower mid-major bid stealer.

 

[jncuse]

I COPIED MARSH TAKE FROM HIS THREAD AS IT ALSO REASONABLE AND FROM A WELL RESPECTED POSTER (hope you don't mind Marsh)

So it appears we are looking at around a 10 seed right now (bracket matrix has us at a 10). Looking ahead here is what I think can and will happen.

Obviously if we beat Pitt we are in. I think we all can agree on that. Could be looking at a 10 seed but at this point who cares as long as we get in. Anything past Pitt is complete gravy.

Losing to Pitt IMO would put us in a 50-50 make it or get snubbed situation. The bubble this year is so charmin soft and really the only reason why Syracuse as well as other teams are even in consideration at this point. That is one thing in our favor. If we lose Wednesday then obviously we would need some help. Initially I think bracketologists would still have us in the field but as the week progresses I think that we would fall farther down the ladder especially if some of these other bubble teams win a game or two in their conference tournaments. I hate to even be in that situation and have to root for other teams to lose so I am really hoping (on my knees here) that we somehow win Wednesday so we can avoid all of this nonsense. Losing Wednesday at noon always sucks as you still have Thurs-Sun of teams playing and making an impression where you have to sit and hope you have done enough.

I am going to say that if we lose to Pitt we are looking at playing in Dayton for sure if we even get in. I would certainly prepare for this scenario. I know that if this happens I will be on my hands and knees on Sunday praying.

 

[jncuse]

MArsh

1. I agree with beating Pitt at 100%.

2. I agree that with a loss the best we can hope for Dayton

3. I don't agree that it is 50% / 50% with a loss. It's definetely not close to zero, but I would guess it's somewhere in the 30-40% range. The bubble teams that are in are so close that while I am 100% certain that the committee sees us as in as of Tuesday, we are not sure if our ranking is a few spots lower than the matrix.

We won't be the only team that as in as of now, that loses its first game, or loses it first game against a quality team. So it really depends on how we rank to them after that event, and how many spots safe we are from people pushing up.

I estimate the pusher uppers are going to take 2-4 spots as a group. Then it all comes down to our ranking after we lost to Pitt. At where we are on the matrix it may be close to 50%... but if the committee has us in initially and only a few spots lower, we could be closer to 10%.

Who is going to push up? There may only be a few teams that push up:
Florida. Michigan, are the only teams that may only need quality win to push its way in
Gonzaga may get in because the committee has some affinity to them
Temple will only move up at the expense of an AAC team that is currently in. (So net impact nil)
After that it's a bunch of teams that need 2 quality wins, which maybe 1 achieves
Then the bubble busters. Let's go Monmouth, SD ST, ALR.

Tonight on the bubble watch thread, I will do an analysis assuming that the matrix has our current standing correct. It's the best proxy we have, but it's so sensitive to being 1 or 2 spots too high.

 

[jncuse]

As I said above, tonight I will try to establish our spot on the ranking "If" we lose, and then see what every team on the outside has to do to move in above us.

 

[MSOrange]

Neither of these teams are in danger of getting an at large birth but the Southern Conference championship between Chattanooga and East Tennessee State might be a pretty good game. In particular, Chattanooga might be able to make their first round NCAA opponent a little nervous if they win tonight. They beat Georgia, Illinois and Dayton already this season. Not a murderer's row but some solid wins.

 

[orangenirvana]

In particular, Chattanooga might be able to make their first round NCAA opponent a little nervous if they win tonight.

But aside from the last three or four auto-bids, you could say that about every team, really.

 

[MSOrange]

But aside from the last three or four auto-bids, you could say that about every team, really.

Yes - I just wanted to be the first to call an upset special

 

[Cusetime]

What I posted in the previous bubble-watch thread...

More and more I think it's going to come down to two things (if we lose to Pitt):

- How the "just off the radar" P5 (plus Big East) teams do in their conf tourneys: Ohio St, Michigan, Northwestern, Ga.Tech,Va Tech, Fla St, Stanford, Washington, Creighton, Maquette, Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia. These are the teams we want to lose as early as possible in their tourneys. (a few of those listed would probably have to win their tourney but would still get strong consideration if they were to make it to the champ game or even Semis)

- How the committee views the AAC and A10. Just a big bubble mess with those teams right now. There is no lock in the AAC (Cinci probably closest to it after beating SMU today) and in the A10 really only Dayton is a lock (as jn says above, many regard St.Joes as lock but I don't think so). AAC could get anywhere from 1-3 teams, A10 could get anywhere from 2-4 teams.

And, obviously, if a team like NC St in the ACC or UCLA in the Pac12 or Penn St in the B1G goes crazy and wins their tourney - well, you know.

And lastly need St.Marys/Gonzaga, Ark St, Monmouth, San Diego St and Valpo to win their tourneys to keep it at Wich St as the only potential lower mid-major bid stealer.

As far as the A-10 goes St. Bonaventure beat St. Joe's twice and Dayton at Dayton and are A=10 Co-Champs, I can't see how a team with an RPI of 27 is not a lock vs SU's current RPI of 60 we are a bubble team

 

[pearl31]

As far as the A-10 goes St. Bonaventure beat St. Joe's twice and Dayton at Dayton and are A=10 Co-Champs, I can't see how a team with an RPI of 27 is not a lock vs SU's current RPI of 60 we are a bubble team

You have to dig deeper and not lock onto individual RPI numbers. Yeah, I think the Bonnies should be in but recently the committee has favored p5 teams with high loss totals combined with scattered impressive wins (especially road/neutral) wins. Win totals against top 25, 50 and 100 is very important. Conference rank and SOS are very important.

 

[Chris02M]

As far as the A-10 goes St. Bonaventure beat St. Joe's twice and Dayton at Dayton and are A=10 Co-Champs, I can't see how a team with an RPI of 27 is not a lock vs SU's current RPI of 60 we are a bubble team

Rpi isnt everything they have less quality wins

 

[jncuse]

MONDAY GAMES

The Crucial Game - MAAC Final (1.0 Point Spread) - Go Monmouth

I don't know if Valpo has enough as an at-large (see the start of the bubble buster thread), but let's not test it. Go Valpo.

These are two teams with RPI;s in the 50's. Hofstra has the much better resume (wins over Florida St, St. Bonnie's, 7-3 vs RPI 100). It also has 5 sub 100 losses but most of those are to teams close to 100. Not a great chance that they get an large, but let's cut off the risk by having Hofstea win

 

[pearl31]

hmm, yeah I hadn't looked that closely at Hofstra's profile - certainly a compelling argument for an at-large if they were to lose tonight. Go Hofstra!

 

[jncuse]

MONDAY GAMES

The West Coast Conference - Now this is Confusing

It would be nice to know what the committee actually thinks about St. Mary's and Gonzaga. It would make what we are cheering for a heck of a lot easier.

I think St. Mary's has best chance as an at-large (and so does the matrix).
Matrix has Gonzaga out -- but maybe they are actually in per the commitee. It's very close and you never know with these mid-majors what the committee is doing with them -- they often shaft them, but if you look at the final matrix over the year's you sometimes get surprise picks

If we are to believe the Matrix:
1) Want St. Mary's to win
2) Want BYU to beat Gonzaga
3) St. Mary's to beat BYU
That would result in 1, or maybe 2 if BYU wins.

But if the matrix likes Gonzaga, a BYU win tonight and tomorrow may actually result in 3.

So do you go all in and hope BYU wins, opening the door for 3 WCC teams, but making 1 a real possibility.
Or do you just hope Gonzaga beats BYU, so it makes 1 team less likely, but certainly caps it at 2.

I am going all in, no hedging here -- BYU to win tonight.

 

[jncuse]

hmm, yeah I hadn't looked that closely at Hofstra's profile - certainly a compelling argument for an at-large if they were to lose tonight. Go Hofstra!

I had slept on them too.

 

[jncuse]

The A-10 has been burnt on a few occasions by a teams with RPI's in the 30s not getting in. And it's typically not bias, but just that they have an empty win profile.

As for St. Bonnie, not that the committee should take a peeksy at the KP and rely on it, but it is #77.

I think the closer you get to lower tier mid-major the more power rankings may be scanned. But that is just speculation on my part. (I exclude the AAC and A-10 as those are high tier mid majors)

 

[pearl31]

Really good Ken Pomeroy quote from his blog today:

I guess all eyes are on the quarterfinal game between Syracuse and Pitt since both teams are not sure things to get an at-large bid. Although, the consensus has them both in at this point, and it’s odd that a loss to a team that will be in the tournament could actually damage one’s portfolio to the point where it would not get a bid. This is one of many reasons I don’t do bracketology.