Bubble Watch - Conference Tourney Week (Mar 7 to March 9)

[Chris02M]

turns out my list last night only had 36 at large teams included so wichita state sneaks into the play in at dayton.Here is my evaluation of what teams need to do to be safely in assuming no mad chaos among bid thieves.

last 10 in:
Pittsburgh: win vs Syracuse*
Cincinnati: win vs Connecticut
Oregon State: win vs Arizona State
Syracuse: Win vs Pitt*
VCU: win 1st 10 game
St Josephs: win 1st a10 game
----
Connecticut: Win vs Cincinnati and Temple
Saint Bonaventure: make a10 finals
Tulsa:Make finals of american tournament
Wichita State:hope eye test and kenpom trump top 50 and 100 rpi wins and no upsets

just out:
George Washington:make finals of a10 tournament
Michigan: 2 quality wins in big ten tournament
Gonzaga: must make finals of wcc to keep hope alive,winning tournament would be best bet.
Florida: make sec tournament finals
Ohio State:2 quality wins in big ten tournament
Florida State:make acc semi finals

the loser of pitt vs Syracuse in my eyes stays in just barely in Dayton but that assumes no more than 1 or 2 bid thieves as 8 top 100 wins should be good enough for either

 

[jncuse]

There is no point doing an analysis if we win. Win and we are in. This analysis will focus purely on if we lose, and what the teams behind us have to do.

I am going to use the bracket matrix as the proxy for where the committee views Syracuse if it loses. Currently we are #34 (4th last in). I can certainly see us being 31, 32, 33, but let's assume for now we are #34.

Let's look at all the teams above us. that could incur a result that is worse than losing to Pitt. Is that enough for us to past them? I have bolded the key games

USC ( Lose to UCLA? We Probably stay behind)

St. Joes (Lose to GW - we probably stay behind)

Oregon St (Lose to Arizona St - I'm not high on this team, so this is one team I think we jump if we both lose the first round)

South Carolina (Lose to Georgia -- IMO we couldn't catch them in a both team lose scenario)

Vanderbilt (Lose to Tennessee, this is a bad loss that may put us ahead)

31. Cincinnati (Lose to UConn -- really depends on who the committee thinks is better entering this thing -- us or Cincy)

32. St Bonaventure (Loss to Davidson -- these teams are so close right now, us losing to a tourney team instead push us ahead)

33. VCU (Loss to Rhode Island - same comment as St. Bonaventure)
St. Mary's (If they lose to Gonzaga, this can go either way)
34. Syracuse
35. UConn
36. Wichita St
37. Tulsa

Another food for thought - Lunardi currently has us ahead of Oregon St, which I agree with. If Oregon St beats Arizona St, but then loses to Cal. Does that put them ahead of us. Beating Arizona St is a game that breaks the ranking?

Anyway. let's assume we get one negative result that works in our favour. Se we are now up to #33. So 5 teams need to pass us: Here is the entire list of teams need to do to pass us. 5 have to happen for us to be eliminated if our starting point is #33. (The math is simple -- the teams are close so if are #31 or #32, which is totally fathomable the number goes up by 1. So if the committee has us a spot ot two higher vs the A-10's of the world, then it helps us significantly.

5 of the following to happen. Seems likely, until you start trying to find them.

UConn - Beat Cincy (So we probably want to cheer for Cincy in that 4/5 AAC game)
Wichita St - Does a good loss by Syracuse make them pass us
Tulsa - Beat Memphis (may not be enough), Beat Houston
Gonzaga / BYU - Win WCC Title, and that only hurts if St. Mary's is ahead of us on the S-Curve with both teams losing.
Michigan - Beat Northwestern (probably not enough), Beat Indiana
Florida - Beat Arkansas (probably not enough), Beat Texas AM
George Washington -- Beat George Mason, Beat St. Joes, Win in Semi's
Temple - Beat East Carolina, Beat UConn or Cincy (may be enough)
Ohio St - Beat Penn St, Beat Michigan St
Florida St - Beat BC, Beat Virginia Tech, Beat Miami
Georgia Tech - Beat Clemson, Beat Virginia (may be enough)
Virginia Tech - Beat Florida St, Beat Miami (probably not enough), Win ACC Semi
Alabama - Beat Ole Miss, Beat Kentucky, Beat South Carolina,
LSU - Beat Vanderbilt, Beat Texas AM, and may get in without winning SEC Final
Houston - WIN AAC
Stanford - Beat Washington, Beat Arizona (probably not enough) win P12 semi
Creighton - Beat Seton Hall, Beat Xavier (and maybe that is enough), if not win BE tourney.

Legit Bubble Busters
Monmouth

Unknown Bubble Busters
Arkansas Little Rock

And with Monmouth winning we are down to 4.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[jncuse]

turns out my list last night only had 36 at large teams included so wichita state sneaks into the play in at dayton.Here is my evaluation of what teams need to do to be safely in assuming no mad chaos among bid thieves.

last 10 in:
Pittsburgh: win vs Syracuse*
Cincinnati: win vs Connecticut
Oregon State: win vs Arizona State
Syracuse: Win vs Pitt*
VCU: win 1st 10 game
St Josephs: win 1st a10 game
----
Connecticut: Win vs Cincinnati and Temple
Saint Bonaventure: make a10 finals
Tulsa:Make finals of american tournament
Wichita State:hope eye test and kenpom trump top 50 and 100 rpi wins and no upsets

just out:
George Washington:make finals of a10 tournament
Michigan: 2 quality wins in big ten tournament
Gonzaga: must make finals of wcc to keep hope alive,winning tournament would be best bet.
Florida: make sec tournament finals
Ohio State:2 quality wins in big ten tournament
Florida State:make acc semi finals

the loser of pitt vs Syracuse in my eyes stays in just barely in Dayton but that assumes no more than 1 or 2 bid thieves as 8 top 100 wins should be good enough for either

BTW, I have not really picked the bubble line, tend to just use the matrix. But I prefer your split to the way that the Matrix has it. I will make the call on the bubble over the weekend.

Seems like you are a tad tougher on what some of these teams need to make it, and I don't really disagree.

 

[jncuse]

MONDAY GAMES

The Crucial Game - MAAC Final (1.0 Point Spread) - Go Monmouth
View attachment 57135


View attachment 57136

I don't know if Valpo has enough as an at-large (see the start of the bubble buster thread), but let's not test it. Go Valpo.

View attachment 57137

These are two teams with RPI;s in the 50's. Hofstra has the much better resume (wins over Florida St, St. Bonnie's, 7-3 vs RPI 100). It also has 5 sub 100 losses but most of those are to teams close to 100. Not a great chance that they get an large, but let's cut off the risk by having Hofstea win

0-3. :bat: I think only Monmouth is a likely to steal a bid over some team, but can't totally discount Valpo.

 

[pearl31]

I mean, it's possible that none of them get bids now, but it was really a worst-case scenario tonight with Monmouth/Valpo/Hofstra all losing (adding to Wich St yesterday)... not starting off the week well at all
:bang:

 

[pearl31]

There is no point doing an analysis if we win. Win and we are in. This analysis will focus purely on if we lose, and what the teams behind us have to do.

I am going to use the bracket matrix as the proxy for where the committee views Syracuse if it loses. Currently we are #34 (4th last in). I can certainly see us being 31, 32, 33, but let's assume for now we are #34.

Let's look at all the teams above us. that could incur a result that is worse than losing to Pitt. Is that enough for us to past them? I have bolded the key games

USC ( Lose to UCLA? We Probably stay behind)

St. Joes (Lose to GW - we probably stay behind)

Oregon St (Lose to Arizona St - I'm not high on this team, so this is one team I think we jump if we both lose the first round)

South Carolina (Lose to Georgia -- IMO we couldn't catch them in a both team lose scenario)

Vanderbilt (Lose to Tennessee, this is a bad loss that may put us ahead)

31. Cincinnati (Lose to UConn -- really depends on who the committee thinks is better entering this thing -- us or Cincy)

32. St Bonaventure (Loss to Davidson -- these teams are so close right now, us losing to a tourney team instead push us ahead)

33. VCU (Loss to Rhode Island - same comment as St. Bonaventure)
St. Mary's (If they lose to Gonzaga, this can go either way)
34. Syracuse
35. UConn
36. Wichita St
37. Tulsa

Another food for thought - Lunardi currently has us ahead of Oregon St, which I agree with. If Oregon St beats Arizona St, but then loses to Cal. Does that put them ahead of us. Beating Arizona St is a game that breaks the ranking?

Anyway. let's assume we get one negative result that works in our favour. Se we are now up to #33. So 5 teams need to pass us: Here is the entire list of teams need to do to pass us. 5 have to happen for us to be eliminated if our starting point is #33. (The math is simple -- the teams are close so if are #31 or #32, which is totally fathomable the number goes up by 1. So if the committee has us a spot ot two higher vs the A-10's of the world, then it helps us significantly.

5 of the following to happen. Seems likely, until you start trying to find them.

UConn - Beat Cincy (So we probably want to cheer for Cincy in that 4/5 AAC game)
Wichita St - Does a good loss by Syracuse make them pass us
Tulsa - Beat Memphis (may not be enough), Beat Houston
Gonzaga / BYU - Win WCC Title, and that only hurts if St. Mary's is ahead of us on the S-Curve with both teams losing.
Michigan - Beat Northwestern (probably not enough), Beat Indiana
Florida - Beat Arkansas (probably not enough), Beat Texas AM
George Washington -- Beat George Mason, Beat St. Joes, Win in Semi's
Temple - Beat East Carolina, Beat UConn or Cincy (may be enough)
Ohio St - Beat Penn St, Beat Michigan St
Florida St - Beat BC, Beat Virginia Tech, Beat Miami
Georgia Tech - Beat Clemson, Beat Virginia (may be enough)
Virginia Tech - Beat Florida St, Beat Miami (probably not enough), Win ACC Semi
Alabama - Beat Ole Miss, Beat Kentucky, Beat South Carolina,
LSU - Beat Vanderbilt, Beat Texas AM, and may get in without winning SEC Final
Houston - WIN AAC
Stanford - Beat Washington, Beat Arizona (probably not enough) win P12 semi
Creighton - Beat Seton Hall, Beat Xavier (and maybe that is enough), if not win BE tourney.

Legit Bubble Busters
Monmouth

Unknown Bubble Busters
Arkansas Little Rock

And with Monmouth winning we are down to 4.

Kudos on this post. As much as we may not "deserve" it, there is still a fairly good chance we sneak in with a loss to Pitt. All those teams trying to overtake us would seem to still have substantial work to do.
But now I'm worried about Monmouth and Valpo

 

[jncuse]

Only 2 games of note today

2 more wins to go for Florida St (Virginia Tech and Miami)

And The Big one right now

Certainly better if St. Mary's win this. St. Mary's is another no guarantee if they win. Only wins against a tourney team (12 seed or above) would be 2 wins against Gonzaga. I think they get in, but they will sweat it a bit as well.

So many unknowns with teams. My number of teams to pass will be at least 2 entering tomorrow -- and if Uconn Loses, not many teams have an easy path.

 

[orangenirvana]

We also have to hope South Dakota State beats Fargo, right?

 

[pearl31]

We also have to hope South Dakota State beats Fargo, right?

nah, that's def a 1-bid league