Bubble Watch - Mon, Feb 27 to Fri, March 3

[jncuse]

Dammit Kentucky. Get your head out of your...

 

[jdubs30]

Regardless of what happens tonight, I believe Vanderbilt is in.

16-13 overall and 9-7 in the SEC with their only games remaining as @UK and Florida - so they could very easily be 16-15 going into the SECT so they'd need at least a win there, but that means 16 losses assuming they lose the next 2 and don't win the SEC tournament. That's an insane, so why would they make it?

Before tonight:
4 SOS / 48 RPI
1 OOC SOS

OOC games include:
Iowa State (W), Butler (L), Minnesota (L), Dayton, (L), Middle Tennesssee (L) Belmont (W), Marquette (L), Bucknell (L). Only 3 of those games were at home. But that is 8 top 75 games OOC; 5 of which were on the road or on neutral courts. The committee loves teams the challenge themselves OOC - Vandy did that.

Other wins:
#5 Florida (Road), #29 South Carolina, # 31 Arkansas (Road), #67 Tennessee (Road).

3 of Vandy's top 4 conference wins have come on the road - including a road win at the #5 RPI team. Not only that, but overall Vandy has 4 top 86 road wins.

They do have that loss to #252 Missouri by 20 - but that's their only loss outside the top 100.

Challenging OOC? Check
Major OOC win? Check
Road wins? Check
Top 10 win? Check

The sheer amount of losses they have is due to their schedule. 11 of their 13 losses are vs. top 75 teams. Meanwhile, they have 9 wins vs. the top 100.

Vandy will be the true test of the committee that if once you hit a magic loss number if that automatically removes you from contention. Even if they split UK/Florida, assuming they lose in the SECT they will finish with 15 losses.

I think they get in unless they lose out (if they lose out they'd be 16-16; 0 shot there).

They are interesting case nonetheless

 

[jdubs30]

Dammit Kentucky. Get your head out of your...

If Vandy wins they're in. That gives them road wins vs. UK and Florida

 

[jncuse]

Clearly in if they win tonight no matter what happens -- 2 top 25 road wins, 1 road win against another top 50 team.

You laid it out in terms of the 5 primary criteria they hit them all except the bottom one and it should not come into play
Quality Wins
Performance away from Home
Non Conference SOS
Rankings (RPI and New Methods)
Against other Bubble teams

 

[jncuse]

Ohio St hits a buzzer beater. But they are still very much a long shot for an at large. I think they would need to make the B10 semi's and probably final to even be considered.

 

[jncuse]

It's always amusing when you listen to games and the announcers talk about the tourney bubble and they assess it with no damn clue how it works.

In the Pitt game, the announcer talks on how Providence is playing great right now which should help it's tourney chances because they are hot. They then wonder aloud if the committee considers if a team is hot at the end of the season totally oblivious to the rules.

The last 10 rule has been gone for I would say at least 8 years and it's been repreated over and over.

 

[nycfan]

Dammit Kentucky. Get your head out of your...

What a nice comeback for Kentucky!! Obviously a win gets Vandy in and takes a spot away. I know they have a good resume with those quality wins and OOC sched, but I don't agree they are already in. A loss tonight and another one against Florida on Saturday gives them 15 losses. Forget the fact no one has ever got in with 15. Here's the thing--assuming they lose at some point in the SEC Tourney, it then eventually ends up getting to 16 losses even if they win a game or two first.

 

[jncuse]

This is as easy as it gets for a bubble team. Is this enough? Could a loss at St. John's and first game BET knock them out. Maybe, but possibly not. Up next at St. John's is the clear lock game.

 

[cuseattle]

Yay Kentucky...

 

[jncuse]

The Syracuse-Georgia Tech may be a play in game (if the season ended Sunday). But then there is the ACC tournament which can really change things,

I know people want to say Pitt has no chance. But theoretically if they win at Virginia, and win 4 neutral games in the ACC tournament they would get in. It's just above Lloyd Christmas level but not much.

Here is the thing about the ACC tourney. These are neutral games... so they have more value than a home win. By virtue of the greatness of the ACC you can build a good resume in 3 days.

 

[jncuse]

What a nice comeback for Kentucky!! Obviously a win gets Vandy in and takes a spot away. I know they have a good resume with those quality wins and OOC sched, but I don't agree they are already in. A loss tonight and another one against Florida on Saturday gives them 15 losses. Forget the fact no one has ever got in with 15. Here's the thing--assuming they lose at some point in the SEC Tourney, it ends up getting to 16 losses.

I don't think they are already in -- they have to win at least one to be in the heart of the convesation. But if that one had been Kentucky... even with 16 losses I think they were in

 

[Briancuse]

View attachment 90523
The Syracuse-Georgia Tech may be a play in game (if the season ended Sunday). But then there is the ACC tournament which can really change things,

I know people want to say Pitt has no chance. But theoretically if they win at Virginia, and win 4 neutral games in the ACC tournament they would get in. It's just above Lloyd Christmas level but not much.

Here is the thing about the ACC tourney. These are neutral games... so they have more value than a home win. By virtue of the greatness of the ACC you can build a good resume in 3 days.

I love you bro, buts its over for Pitt.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Bubble teams dodged a bullet tonight with Vandy blowing a golden opportunity.

Otherwise, not a great night from a Cuse perspective.

 

[jncuse]

I love you bro, buts its over for Pitt.

2 in a million chance

 

[jncuse]

Bubble teams dodged a bullet tonight with Vandy blowing a golden opportunity.

Otherwise, not a great night from a Cuse perspective.

Tonight was good in my view. Basically all the games went as expected. What will hurt us is if teams around us get "Unexpected Wins". I would say any day without any "Unexpected Wins" is a good night for us at this point and will help us maintain our position with one more win.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Tonight was good in my view. Basically all the games went as expected. What will hurt us is if teams around us get "Unexpected Wins". None of that tonight. I would say any day without any "Unexpected Wins" is a good night for us at this point and will help us maintain our position with one more win.

Fair. But most of the teams around SU on the bubble won, albeit against poor opponents. A loss would have damaged GaTech, but maybe you see silver lining since it hurt Pitt. Vandy losing was the only good result, as far as I can tell. I guess Indiana losing was good.

 

[jncuse]

9:00 is the time to be watching College Basketball tomorrow night!

PRIMARY BUBBLE

6:30 Auburn at 8th team out Georgia (-5)
7:00 1st team Out Rhode Island (-9) at St. Joes
9:00 Louisville at 2nd team Out Wake Forest (+3.5)
9:00 Michigan St at 4th team out Illinois (-2.0)
9:00 5th last team in Marquette (+2) at 9th last team in Xavier (-2.0)
9:00 3rd team out Kansas St (+2.5) at 6th team out TCU (-2.5)
10:00 Washington St at 6th last team in USC (-12)

Some comments on the 9:00 games:

• Wake Forest has a top 10 win opportunity at home and Illinois has a top 50 home opportunity. These are resume movers and must not happen
• The loser of the head to head matchups will be hurt in either case, but if I had to pick one. Marquette will probably be closer to the line with a loss, so cheer for Xavier. A
• I would go with TCU. Kansas St seems to be slightly ahead and a road win down the stretch would move them up more than a home win for TCU.

Secondary Games

7:00 Michigan at Northwestern (-1.0)
7:00 Arkansas (+11) at Florida
8:00 VCU at Dayton
8:00 NC St at Clemson (-8.5)

Northwestern and Arkansas may have need to win one more game (regular or conference).

VCU and Dayton. Both are near locks, but theoretically if the loser of this game then incurs 2 bad losses in the A-10 to end the season they could be in trouble.

Clemson is similar to Pitt above. 3 neutral wins in the ACC tournament has massive value in the resume. So they still "have a chance".

 

[jdubs30]

I don't know guys - Vandy has a better resume than us at every turn except that their worst loss is worse than our worst loss. However our next 2 worse losses are worse than theirs. You could argue we have more top 20 wins I guess. But that's it - Vandy has the edge in everything else. Would 14 losses for us and 16 for them really be the trump card? Would that be enough to get in over them?

The good thing is I believe there will be spots for both of us. But when it comes down to it - I do not want to be H2H vs. Vandy for the final bubble spot; at least not as of today. A lot can change the next 10 days

 

[MSOrange]

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: History against Syracuse, K-State, Illinois

 

[orangenirvana]

I don't know guys - Vandy has a better resume than us at every turn except that their worst loss is worse than our worst loss. However our next 2 worse losses are worse than theirs. You could argue we have more top 20 wins I guess. But that's it - Vandy has the edge in everything else. Would 14 losses for us and 16 for them really be the trump card? Would that be enough to get in over them?

The good thing is I believe there will be spots for both of us. But when it comes down to it - I do not want to be H2H vs. Vandy for the final bubble spot; at least not as of today. A lot can change the next 10 days

I think you're way too hung up on "bad losses" and underrating big wins. I think what Vandy has over Syracuse are road wins at #5 Florida and #32 Arkansas. That's big and what I think makes Vandy a lock.

But aside from that, they had an average rank of 51 going into yesterday compared to Syracuse's 50. They're now 1-5 vs. Top 25 compared to SU's 3-4. 4-7 vs. Top 50 compared to 6-7 for Syracuse. We'll see how the committee values big wins at home compared to what a team does on the road.

 

[orangenirvana]

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: History against Syracuse, K-State, Illinois

Palm sure knows what team to use in his headline for those clicks!

What's wrong with Palm's projection here is that he's using 23 years of history. The committee today isn't the same as its been for the last 23 years. But (as far as I know) it is relatively the same as it has been the last two years. And the last two years the RPI has been pretty much ignored and big wins (record vs. Top 50/25) are valued over anything else. Teams with poor RPI, bloated number of losses and multiple Top 50 wins have gotten in over teams with great RPI and only 1 or 2 Top 50 wins.

I still don't understand what he sees in Cal to consider them "in for now." 1-7 vs. the Top 50 (0-6 vs. the Top 25). And unlike a Wake Forest or Xavier they don't have good computer rankings - average of 47. I don't get it.

 

[jncuse]

Noting the %'s on today's matrix to see how much things move after tonight's games. Some unfavourable things happening for us right now as teams below the line are making a move. Let's see how much our % changes. I would think we are still in as of now tomorrow, but our % may be closer to 60% (a guess)

Tonight's Results Updated (or predicted, will change if necessary)

Xavier 100% L vs Bubble Team at Home
Seton Hall 100%
Providence 100%
USC 90% W vs crappy team
Marquette 87% W vs Bubble Team on Road
Illinois St 80%
Syracuse 77%
Cal 71%
Rhode Island 53% W vs Crappy Team
--------------
Vanderbilt 40%
Illinois 28% W vs top 50 team
Wake Forest 25% W vs top 10 team
Houston 13%
Georgia Tech 9%
TCU 9% L vs bubble team at home
Kansas St 6% W vs bubble team at home
Georgia 6% W vs top 100 team


(Based on 32 brackets updated today)

 

[jncuse]

Thursday Schedule

Fairly Quiet

7:00 Houston at Cincy
11:00 Cal at Utah

I believe Houston is the fifth team out right now. So they need something big.

Cal can't really take on any loss without falling on the other side of the line, and they are a 2.5 point dog.

 

[AZcuse77]

Thursday Schedule

Fairly Quiet

7:00 Houston at Cincy
11:00 Cal at Utah

I believe Houston is the fifth team out right now. So they need something big.

Cal can't really take on any loss without falling on the other side of the line, and they are a 2.5 point dog.

It's great what you are doing here... but looking at the Bracket Matrix I think there is a big difference between the current "bubble" and bracket matrix entries VS. teams that are still in contention.

I looked at a criteria/requirements of:

Current Top 100 KenPom rating
Ability to finish season in KenPom Top 75 from remaining schedule & tournament despite losing in title game
Potential for 7+ conference wins in ACC/Big12/BigE/Big10, 8/9+ in others (no Pitt, Clemson, Tennessee, 10 loss Pac12 teams)
Overall winning record

There are 18 teams currently listed as OUT by Lunardi that meet this criteria that are still in contention for finishing with KenPom rankings below 75 (some as low as 20, most could end up best case in the 30-65 range if losing in title game). There are an additional 8 first place teams from mid-major conferences which meet this criteria which will get at-large consideration should they not get their automatic bid.

I'm just not sure the current "bubble" per Bracket Matrix is expansive enough if considering who still has a chance to be selected. There are lots of teams that can finish 5-1 4-1 or 3-1 and get an at large bid but are not even listed on any matrix. Many of these are long shots with warts... but any bubble team including Cuse has warts.

These 1st place teams would have names at least brought up for at-large if won out until title game:

c-usa: mtsu 25-4 15-1 KenPom/RPI/Sagarin #48/31/41 (2-0 finish, bye first round, 2-1 tourn = 29-5, best possible non-autobid KenPom ~45)
ivy: princeton 19-6 12-0 #61/53/78 (2-0 finish, 1-1 4-team tourn = 22-7, kenpom ~55)
colonial: unc-wilmington 26-5 15-3 #59/38/60 (reg season done, bye first round, 2-1 tourn = 28-6, kenpom ~60)
mt west: nevada 24-6 13-4 ~#65/43/62 (1-0 finish, bye first round, 2-1 tourn = 27-7, kenpom ~55) *won today
southern: e tenn st 24-7 14-4 #66/70/81 (reg season done, bye first round, 2-1 tourn = 26-8, kenpom ~65)
am east: vermont 26-5 16-0 #69/45/84 (reg season done, 2-1 lose final = 28-6, kenpom ~65)
sun belt: ut arlington 23-6 13-3 #72/36/82 (2-0 finish, bye first round, 2-1 tourn = 27-7, kenpom ~65)
maac: monmouth 26-5 18-2 #79/42/86 (reg season done, bye first round, 2-1 tourn = 28-6, kenpom ~75)

Multi-bid leagues with teams not currently listed in but in contention:

west coast: byu 21-10 12-6 #70/69/75 (reg season done, bye first round, 2-1 tourn = 23-11 14-7, kenpom ~65)
(gonzaga, st marys in)

atlantic 10: rhode island 20-9 12-5 ~#50/~42/52 (1-0 finish, double bye, 2-1 tourn = 23-10 15-6, kenpom ~45) *won today
(dayton, vcu in)

aac: houston 20-8 11-5 #39/52/47 (2-0 finish, first round bye, 2-1 tourn = 24-9 14-6, kenpom ~35)
ucf 19-10 10-7 #73/77/73 (2-0 finish, first round bye, 2-1 tourn = 23-11 14-8, kenpom ~60)
memphis 18-11 8-8 #85/109/78 (2-0 finish, no bye, 3-1 tourn = 23-12 13-9, kenpom ~65)
(smu, cinci in)

Power 5+1 Teams not currently listed in but still in contention:

acc: wake forest 17-12 8-9 ~#29/~40/39 (1-0 finish, bye possible, 4-1 tourn = 22-13 13-10, kenpom ~20) *won today
ga tech 17-13 8-9 #76/91/75 (1-0 finish, bye possible, 4-1 tourn = 22-14 13-10, kenpom ~50)
(unc, ville, nd, duke, fsu, miami, uva, syracuse in)

big 10: iowa 16-13 8-8 #73/92/68 (2-0 finish, single bye, 3-1 tourn = 21-14 13-9, kenpom ~50)
illinois 18-12 8-9 ~#58/~56/65 (1-0 finish, single bye, 3-1 tourn = 22-13 12-10, kenpom ~45) *won today
ohio state 17-13 7-10 #63/62/50 (1-0 finish, single bye, 3-1 tourn = 21-14 11-11, kenpom ~50)
indiana 16-14 6-11 #50/93/48 (1-0 finish, likely no bye, 4-1 tourn = 20-15 11-12, kenpom ~40)
(purdue, wisc, md, minn, msu, nw, mich in)

big 12: kstate 18-12 7-10 ~#35/~58/59 (1-0 finish, then single bye likely, 2-1 tourn = 21-13 10-11, kenpom ~30) *won today
tcu 17-13 6-11 ~#45/~65/46 (1-0 finish, then single bye likely, 2-1 tourn = 20-14 9-12, kenpom ~35) *lost today
(kansas, iowa st, baylor, wv, ok st in)

pac 12: utah 18-10 9-7 #54/81/58 (2-0 finish, possible double bye, 2-1 tourn = 22-11 13-8, kenpom ~45)
(usc, cal, ucla, az, oregon in)

sec: georgia 17-12 9-8 ~#48/~54/49 (1-0 finish, single bye, 3-1 tourn = 21-13 13-9, kenpom ~35) *won today
alabama 17-12 10-7 ~#62/94/76 (1-0 finish, likely single bye, 3-1 tourn = 21-13 14-8, kenpom ~55) *won today
ole miss 18-12 9-8 ~#83/71/66 (1-0 finish, likely single bye, 3-1 tourn = 23-12 13-9, kenpom ~60) *lost today
texas a&m 16-13 8-9 #57/83/59 (1-0 finish, single bye, 3-1 tourn = 20-14 12-10, kenpom ~45)
(vandy, arkansas, fla, sc, kentucky in)

big east: (all 8 currently listed in)
missouri valley: (witchita st, illinois in)

 

[Knicks411]

Palm sure knows what team to use in his headline for those clicks!

What's wrong with Palm's projection here is that he's using 23 years of history. The committee today isn't the same as its been for the last 23 years. But (as far as I know) it is relatively the same as it has been the last two years. .

Here's another thing; using 23 years of bubble history is kind of dumb when you realized they expanded the field; there are more at large teams than there were 23 years ago. Of course the resumes of the last few teams in are going to be worse than they've been; those teams wouldn't have qualified in the past!