Bubble Watch - Mon, Feb 27 to Fri, March 3

[jncuse]

It's great what you are doing here... but looking at the Bracket Matrix I think there is a big difference between the current "bubble" and bracket matrix entries VS. teams that are still in contention.

I'm just not sure the current "bubble" per Bracket Matrix is expansive enough if considering who still has a chance to be selected. There are lots of teams that can finish 5-1 4-1 or 3-1 and get an at large bid but are not even listed on any matrix.

I am a following a much larger base than the matrix in these threads.

My prime objective is not to create clutter. Keep the main tables and primary bubble simple and make it easy to follow. I address other topics like secondary bubble teams (outside the matrix or teams at 100%) and bubble busters throughout the thread.

I try to create some context for those that follow deeply and more casually. My whole objective is to get deeper on some topics in discussion but make the front tables and schedules simple enough, so that more people can get engaged in some of the games.\\


1. I often refer to a secondary bubble. Secondary bubble is teams that are 100% but could lose out and find themselves in trouble or teams that can make a nice tun

Here are snips from Saturday and Tuesday games.

2. I have analyzed bubble busters in prior threads. I don't think noting Monmouth, Vermont, East Tennessee St, UT Arlington, and Princeton are serious bubble busters. A KP or power rating +60 will result in none of these teams getting in. They have 0% shot and accordingly will not be acknowledged moving forward (in my posts anyway). If any of those teams lose a game there KP number will go down if anything. It won't go up if they go 3-1. Going 3-1 against a mediocore schedule is going to move you down a few spots if anything.

I have been following Middle Tennessee St pretty much every game they play in Feb, because they are the one mid major with a real chance as a bubble buster. Nevada would be next (unlikely) and UNC Wilmington (very unlikely). So they will be mentioned next week.

3. Of all the larger conference teams that you mentioned all will be on my secondary schedule in the past and for their next game except for the 4 following who I view as too large longshots.

Memphis, Iowa, Utah and Texas AM.

In the unlikely situation they make a run, and I misread the run, I will acknowledge it. But I don't think there is a whole bunch of teams I am ignoring. Of this entire group of P5 teams not yet on the matrix, I would be a little surprised if 1 made it... stunned if 2 made it as at larges.

 

[AZcuse77]

I am a following a much larger base than the matrix in these threads.

My prime objective is not to create clutter. Keep the main tables and primary bubble simple and make it easy to follow. I address other topics like secondary bubble teams (outside the matrix or teams at 100%) and bubble busters throughout the thread.

I try to create some context for those that follow deeply and more casually. My whole objective is to get deeper on some topics in discussion but make the front tables and schedules simple enough, so that more people can get engaged in some of the games.\\


1. I often refer to a secondary bubble. Secondary bubble is teams that are 100% but could lose out and find themselves in trouble or teams that can make a nice tun

Here are snips from Saturday and Tuesday games.

View attachment 90553

View attachment 90554


2. I have analyzed bubble busters in prior threads. I don't think noting Monmouth, Vermont, East Tennessee St, UT Arlington, and Princeton are serious bubble busters. A KP or power rating +60 will result in none of these teams getting in. They have 0% shot and accordingly will not be acknowledged moving forward (in my posts anyway). If any of those teams lose a game there KP number will go down if anything. It won't go up if they go 3-1. Going 3-1 against a mediocore schedule is going to move you down a few spots if anything.

I have been following Middle Tennessee St pretty much every game they play in Feb, because they are the one mid major with a real chance as a bubble buster. Nevada would be next (unlikely) and UNC Wilmington (very unlikely). So they will be mentioned next week.

3. Of all the larger conference teams that you mentioned all will be on my secondary schedule in the past and for their next game except for the 4 following who I view as too large longshots.

Memphis, Iowa, Utah and Texas AM.

In the unlikely situation they make a run, and I misread the run, I will acknowledge it. But I don't think there is a whole bunch of teams I am ignoring. Of this entire group of P5 teams not yet on the matrix, I would be a little surprised if 1 made it... stunned if 2 made it as at larges.

I didn't see all of your secondary schedule but just wanted to run the math of how low some of these teams could get their rankings with a loss in the finals. As far as the 8 first place teams I agree MTSU would be the only one without long odds and the finals loss would hurt the KP ranking (which I tried to estimate for). As I wrote I think all 8 will have their names discussed by the committee being top 75 teams and I wondered if the committee would consider more than a 0% chance VS. a power conference team only a few games over .500 on the weak bubble. The three you mentioned are probably the only chances but for example Princeton finishing 3-1 with only a loss to Harvard may not be 0%. Monmouth is probably 0% but they met the criteria so I left them on there. Several of them have RPI's in the 30's or 40's I figured there would at least be discussion even if RPI is discounted now. Maybe it's only 1-2% chance but it'll at least be discussed.

But no I didn't mean to say you are ignoring a bunch of teams and mostly looked at your Bracket Matrix stuff so I was looking for a more quantitative approach since so many of the brackets I see seem so off or subjective.

For the 4 teams you listed at the end it seems Utah will have the best chance to finish 4th in Pac12 and knock off big time teams to finish up to 4-1 with KP in the 40s. Iowa and TA&M could get their KP in the 40-50 range as well I think but prob not Memphis.

Rhode Island, Houston, and Wake should probably already be listed on the "in" side of the bubble IMO.

BYU may be in the conversation after beating Zags and would be able to take out St Marys then lose to Zags in final. That still could be too little with a KP in the 60s. Lots of middling Big10/SEC/Big12 teams could emerge so I'm guessing one or two make a deep run. My main goal was to see how much "bursting" of bubbles could happen with Cuse right on the edge even if they won 1-2 more games (I think most likely they need 2 more wins).

Nice job with the analysis...

 

[orangenirvana]

Wasn't sure where I should post this, considering I put the previous post in another thread. For those who didn't see it I've averaged all four major computer rankings (Sagarin, KenPom, BPI, RPI) for each bubble team.

I now consider Marquette one of the 33 stone-cold locks but I will still include them in this list since they were there previously.

I've also included record vs. Top 50 (Top 25).

* Indicates all victories came at home

1. Wake Forest - 34.0 / *2-9 (1-7)
2. Marquette - 36.75 / 6-5 (2-3)
3. VCU - 38.5 / *2-3 (1-2)
4. Xavier - 39.25 / 3-8 (1-7)
5. Arkansas - 40.25 / 3-6 (0-4)
6. Northwestern - 40.5 / 4-6 (1-5)
7. Virginia Tech - 42.75 / 4-6 (2-5)
8. Houston - 43.0 / 2-4 (0-3)
9. Clemson - 43.75 / 4-11 (0-7)
10. Kansas State - 44.25 / 3-8 (2-4)
11. Rhode Island - 45.5 / 2-3 (1-3)
12. Michigan State - 45.75 / 5-6 (2-6)
13. Illinois State - 46.75 / *1-1 (0-0)
14. California - 47.0 / 1-7 (0-6)
15. Vanderbilt - 47.25 / 4-7 (1-5)
16. Middle Tennessee - 47.75 / 2-1 (0-1)
17. Syracuse - 51.0 / *6-7 (3-4)
18. Texas Tech - 51.5 / *2-8 (1-3)
19. Indiana - 51.75 / 4-11 (2-5)
20. TCU - 53.0 / *2-10 (0-7)
21. Seton Hall - 54.0 / 3-6 (1-5)
22. Georgia - 55.0 / 1-7 (0-5)
23. Providence - 55.5 / 6-7 (2-5)
24. USC - 55.5 / *2-6 (2-5)
25. Ohio State - 62.0 / 4-9 (1-4)
26. Illinois - 62.0 / 5-8 (1-5)
27. Georgetown - 67.5 / 3-10 (2-5)
28. Tennessee - 67.75 / 2-10 (1-5)
29. BYU - 68.75 / 1-4 (1-3)
30. Pittsburgh - 70.25 / 3-10 (3-7)
31. Iowa - 77.0 / 4-8 (1-5)
32. Georgia Tech - 83.5 / 4-7 (4-4)


By comparison, here is what the Top 30 bubble teams looked like going into Selection Sunday last year. Tourney teams are in bold.

1. Wichita State - 27.0 (11 seed - Play-in game)
2. Texas - 30.5 (6 seed)
3. Saint Mary's - 33.25
4. *Connecticut - 33.75 (9 seed)
5. Vanderbilt - 34.5 (11 seed - Play-in game)
6. Cincinnati - 34.5 (9 seed)
7. VCU - 35.5 (10 seed)
8. Dayton - 39.0 (7 seed)
9. Butler - 40.0 (9 seed)
10. Florida - 42.25
11. Texas Tech - 42.5 (8 seed)
12. *Saint Joseph's - 42.5 (8 seed)
13. Pittsburgh - 43.25 (10 seed)
14. Providence - 43.75 (9 seed)
15. Valparaiso - 44.0
16. Colorado - 45.75 (8 seed)
17. USC - 46.5 (8 seed)
18. Syracuse - 47.5 (10 seed)
19. Michigan - 49.0 (11 seed - Play-in game)
20. South Carolina - 50.5
21. Oregon State - 53.0 (7 seed)
22. Georgia - 58.75
23. Tulsa - 61.0 (11 seed - Play-in game)
24. Saint Bonaventure - 65.5
25. Ohio State - 66.25
26. Houston - 67.5
27. George Washington - 67.5
28. Monmouth - 71.75
29. Temple - 73.0 (10 seed)
30. Alabama - 84.0

*Automatic Bid

 

[AZcuse77]

I didn't see all of your secondary schedule but just wanted to run the math of how low some of these teams could get their rankings with a loss in the finals. As far as the 8 first place teams I agree MTSU would be the only one without long odds and the finals loss would hurt the KP ranking (which I tried to estimate for). As I wrote I think all 8 will have their names discussed by the committee being top 75 teams and I wondered if the committee would consider more than a 0% chance VS. a power conference team only a few games over .500 on the weak bubble. The three you mentioned are probably the only chances but for example Princeton finishing 3-1 with only a loss to Harvard may not be 0%. Monmouth is probably 0% but they met the criteria so I left them on there. Several of them have RPI's in the 30's or 40's I figured there would at least be discussion even if RPI is discounted now. Maybe it's only 1-2% chance but it'll at least be discussed.

But no I didn't mean to say you are ignoring a bunch of teams and mostly looked at your Bracket Matrix stuff so I was looking for a more quantitative approach since so many of the brackets I see seem so off or subjective.

For the 4 teams you listed at the end it seems Utah will have the best chance to finish 4th in Pac12 and knock off big time teams to finish up to 4-1 with KP in the 40s. Iowa and TA&M could get their KP in the 40-50 range as well I think but prob not Memphis.

Rhode Island, Houston, and Wake should probably already be listed on the "in" side of the bubble IMO.

BYU may be in the conversation after beating Zags and would be able to take out St Marys then lose to Zags in final. That still could be too little with a KP in the 60s. Lots of middling Big10/SEC/Big12 teams could emerge so I'm guessing one or two make a deep run. My main goal was to see how much "bursting" of bubbles could happen with Cuse right on the edge even if they won 1-2 more games (I think most likely they need 2 more wins).

Nice job with the analysis...

Also Lunardi's new rankings are out today. Has Cuse still in Last 4 Byes and Clemson as Next 4 Out. I just think its 0% that even Clemson winning their final 2 games for 6-12 or Pitt going 5-13 would get any real consideration even with a run to the finals. I think the worst conference record in NCAA history to get in was FSU with 7 wins. Same with Tennessee at 15-15 7-10 in a crappy SEC but who knows.

 

[cuse522]

Did every single game last night go the wrong way? Wake beating Louisville has to be pretty bad for us, right?

 

[orangenirvana]

Did every single game last night go the wrong way? Wake beating Louisville has to be pretty bad for us, right?

It's tough to say. Syracuse has the advantage in big wins, but Wake has the advantage in computer rankings. Which will the committee value more? We'll see.

Although if last season is any indication, they lean toward valuing big wins more than good ratings (Temple bid over Saint Mary's, Wichita State = Tulsa, etc.).

 

[AZcuse77]

Did every single game last night go the wrong way? Wake beating Louisville has to be pretty bad for us, right?

Well Tennessee lost to last place LSU which was probably the nail in their coffin. TCU and Mississippi both lost but to similar ranking bubble teams.

 

[orangenirvana]

1. Wake Forest - 34.0 / *2-9 (1-7)
32. Georgia Tech - 83.5 / 4-7 (4-4)

Who's closer to a bid - Wake or GTech? Discuss...

 

[jncuse]

Today vs Yesterday

Marquette 100% (87%) (Up 13%)
Seton Hall 97% (100%) (Down 3%)
Providence 95% (97%) (Down 2%)
USC 95% (90%) (up 5%)
Xavier 92% (100%) (Down 8%)
Syracuse 76% (77%) (Down 1%)
Wake Forest 76% (25%) (Up 51%)
Cal 57% (71%) (Down 14%)
Illinois St 54% (80%) (Down 26%)
Illinois 51% (28%) (Up 23%)
-----
Rhode Island 38% (53%) (Down 15%)
Vanderbilt 24% (40%) (Down 16%)
Kansas St 14% (8%) (Up 6%)
Houston 14% (13%) (Up 1%)
Georgia Tech 5% (9%) (Down 4%)
Clemson 5% (0%) (Up 5%)
Georgia 5% (6%) (Down 1%)
TCU 0% (9%) (Down 9%)

It is interesting to see that we held steady yesterday despite all the bad. Wake Forest and Illinois went way up, but the people that favoured them dropped down Cal, Vanderbilt, Illinois St, and Rhode Island instead of us.

So we maintain our position with simply some intermingling of other schools.

 

[AZcuse77]

Who's closer to a bid - Wake or GTech? Discuss...

If Cuse wins at home vs. GT this weekend they are locked in to a bye and both GT and Wake would have to play in round 1 with no chance to meet each other in the first two rounds... so I think Wake's win yesterday and future results for GT/Wake are fairly independent other than the Cuse/GT game. All 3 could get in with 2-3 more wins and the ACC could certainly get 11 bids if 2 of the 3 finish strong.

I do think Wake has the stronger resume having beaten GT and such vastly better rankings despite the worse road/Top50 performance.

 

[jncuse]

Did every single game last night go the wrong way? Wake beating Louisville has to be pretty bad for us, right?

The two biggest went the wrong way. And in the matchups of bubble teams, the road teams won which is generallt not preferable. But it seems that Wake, Illinois, Marquette and Kansas St jumps took away quite a bit from Cal, Vandy, Illinois St, and Rhode Island. We were left unharmed,

 

[orangenirvana]

USC 95% (90%) (up 5%)
Cal 57% (71%) (Down 14%)
Illinois St 54% (80%) (Down 26%)

I still have no idea what so many analysts see in these three teams. But at least less are including Cal and Illinois State.

 

[jncuse]

I still have no idea what so many analysts see in these three teams. But at least less are including Cal and Illinois State.

Yep, I think when people were forced to choose last night they had to look harder at a few teams, and the teams with empty wins.

 

[pearl31]

Just what I suspected, Wakes's win last night put them in a dead heat w us in the matrix

 

[orangenirvana]

Just what I suspected, Wakes's win last night put them in a dead heat w us in the matrix

Similar resume to Florida last season (NIT).

 

[jncuse]

Similar resume to Florida last season (NIT).

Who do you have in right now instead of Wake, Cal, Illinois St (and USC possibly?)

 

[jncuse]

Who do you have in right now instead of Wake, Cal, Illinois St (and USC possibly?)

I would probably drop Cal for either Vanderbilt or Kansas St

I still have Illinois St in due to a lack of great p5 candidates, and their average power ranking are over 50. It's a weak argument, but I think they are helped by stronger reliance on non RPI numbers.

 

[721Comstock]

Just what I suspected, Wakes's win last night put them in a dead heat w us in the matrix

There is no spoon.

 

[Chris02M]

Illinois state is a really tough case I'm going to wait til conf tourney to do a final look

 

[jdubs30]

Give how recent committees have treated non-P5 schools (with the exception of the big East and Tulsa last year) - I can't imagine Illinois State is even close

 

[Briancuse]

Give how recent committees have treated non-P5 schools (with the exception of the big East and Tulsa last year) - I can't imagine Illinois State is even close

Its going to be tough for them, I keep hearing people saying there is no way Witchita will get left out, what do you guys think if they don't win the mvc, with one top 50 win?

 

[jdubs30]

Its going to be tough for them, I keep hearing people saying there is no way Witchita will get left out, what do you guys think if they don't win the mvc, with one top 50 win?

I'd stomach WSU more than I would Illinois State - WSU for the most part is killing people; while Illinois State is squeaking out close games vs. bad teams.

I think WSU is an alternative if the committee doesn't deem any P5 teams resumes good enough. I think it's a longshot, but I could see it I suppose. But it would take collapses from us, Wake, GaTech KState, Illinois, etc.

 

[jdubs30]

6-23 FIU is beating MTSU 20-3 at the 12min mark in the 1st half.

Now - I don't think MTSU will get an at-large; but they are the type of team that could lose in the CUSA finals and could sneak in. So if FIU can somehow keep this up for the next 32 minutes - that would effectively eliminate MTSU from at-large consideration.


Also Houston down by 17 @Cincy at half. This would be a massive win for Houston. Need the Bearcats to hold on here

 

[20Plus]

1. Wake Forest - 34.0 / *2-9 (1-7)
2. Marquette - 36.75 / 6-5 (2-3)
3. VCU - 38.5 / *2-3 (1-2)
4. Xavier - 39.25 / 3-8 (1-7)
5. Arkansas - 40.25 / 3-6 (0-4)
6. Northwestern - 40.5 / 4-6 (1-5)
7. Virginia Tech - 42.75 / 4-6 (2-5)
8. Houston - 43.0 / 2-4 (0-3)
9. Clemson - 43.75 / 4-11 (0-7)
10. Kansas State - 44.25 / 3-8 (2-4)
11. Rhode Island - 45.5 / 2-3 (1-3)
12. Michigan State - 45.75 / 5-6 (2-6)
13. Illinois State - 46.75 / *1-1 (0-0)
14. California - 47.0 / 1-7 (0-6)
15. Vanderbilt - 47.25 / 4-7 (1-5)
16. Middle Tennessee - 47.75 / 2-1 (0-1)
17. Syracuse - 51.0 / *6-7 (3-4)
18. Texas Tech - 51.5 / *2-8 (1-3)
19. Indiana - 51.75 / 4-11 (2-5)
20. TCU - 53.0 / *2-10 (0-7)
21. Seton Hall - 54.0 / 3-6 (1-5)
22. Georgia - 55.0 / 1-7 (0-5)
23. Providence - 55.5 / 6-7 (2-5)
24. USC - 55.5 / *2-6 (2-5)
25. Ohio State - 62.0 / 4-9 (1-4)
26. Illinois - 62.0 / 5-8 (1-5)
27. Georgetown - 67.5 / 3-10 (2-5)
28. Tennessee - 67.75 / 2-10 (1-5)
29. BYU - 68.75 / 1-4 (1-3)
30. Pittsburgh - 70.25 / 3-10 (3-7)
31. Iowa - 77.0 / 4-8 (1-5)
32. Georgia Tech - 83.5 / 4-7 (4-4)

What number is the cut off line

 

[MSOrange]

Houston not exactly putting their best foot forward against Cincinnati tonight.