Bubble Watch - Mon, Feb 27 to Fri, March 3

[jdubs30]

Houston not exactly putting their best foot forward against Cincinnati tonight.

Yep they might not break 40.

This loss will hurt their RPI and other metrics but won't "knock them out" so to speak - but it is a lost shot for a big win. They finish up their season against 14-16 ECU. So they'll haave to make ti to the AAC Finals, knocking off SMU and Cincy along the way to have even a shot.

 

[jncuse]

Illinois state is a really tough case I'm going to wait til conf tourney to do a final look

There is never a good final look for these teams. You will never be able to compare apples and oranges, you sort of have to guess the motives - my view anyway,

 

[Ish88888]

I would probably drop Cal for either Vanderbilt or Kansas St

I still have Illinois St in due to a lack of great p5 candidates, and their average power ranking are over 50. It's a weak argument, but I think they are helped by stronger reliance on non RPI numbers.

Kstate an aweful OOC profile.

 

[jncuse]

Give how recent committees have treated non-P5 schools (with the exception of the big East and Tulsa last year) - I can't imagine Illinois State is even close

It's always apples and orange with these teams. I would agree based on last year they would be out, but each year is not the same..

To me I am just assessing the landscape this year:

1) Even worse P5 teams than normal, and lack of A-10, AAC teams that are reasonable options to keep them out. It will make the committee more open to giving the benefit of the doubt. Force some different way of thinking, which leads to

2) What seems to be an open acceptance of power rankings this year, and an individual number they can rely on. You couldn't use the RPI as a number to compare apples and oranges. They knew the RPI created stupid results. But if they are accepting BPI/KP/Sag, it means they like those numbers. Those are systems that can be used to compare apples and oranges without having try to equalize schedules. To me any mid major that has an average above 50 (or a spot or two over it) has a very good chance this year -- that would be Middle Tennessee St and Illinois.St. True that under this approach St. Mary's and Valpo would be in last year, but this is a metric that is gaining steam and acceptance so that it might be much more accepted than the prior.

At some point you have to get away from top 50 wins when you compare these teams. It just won't work. Top 50 wins is a fair way to split the P5+1 and even the AAC, but not after that. This year might be it... or it might not and this is an absolute whiff of a comment.

 

[jncuse]

Kstate an aweful OOC profile.

Let me know what team on the bubble don't have a few awful attributes.

 

[Ish88888]

Let me know what team on the bubble don't have a few awful attributes.

Good point, its a weak bubble. Hopefully that helps us. Remember 10-15 years ago where teams .500 or worse in conference weren't even considered?

 

[jncuse]

I'd stomach WSU more than I would Illinois State - WSU for the most part is killing people; while Illinois State is squeaking out close games vs. bad teams.

I think WSU is an alternative if the committee doesn't deem any P5 teams resumes good enough. I think it's a longshot, but I could see it I suppose. But it would take collapses from us, Wake, GaTech KState, Illinois, etc.

Wichita St is not a longshot in my view.

Their individual metrics (other than RPI) average around 15. There is no way they exclude a team like that. Last year their OOC went like this -- win over Utah (3 seed). But 5 losses to Seton Hall, Alabama, USC, Iowa. They followed that up with one more loss in the MVC than this year.

And they still got in -- main reason was the great power rankings in my view (around #20). This year the power rankings are even better. And the bubble is a bit weaker.

You have to be cheering for Wichita St to win the MVC, they are 100% getting an at large in my view. Illinois St is very debatable as an at large, so it would be a disaster if they win.



L

 

[obliterata]

I think the worst conference record in NCAA history to get in was FSU with 7 wins.

Worse than that. In 1998 Florida State:

- finished tied for 6th in a 9-school ACC (6-10)
- lost their first round ACC tournament game to the 8th place team (0-1)
- therefore overall finished 6-11 in the ACC
- went 0-6 against the top 3 teams in the ACC
- went 1-9 against the top 5 teams in the ACC
- went 1-6 in their last 7 games before the selection show (3-7 last ten)
- was sitting at 17-13 before the selection show

and got a bid.

 

[jncuse]

Who's closer to a bid - Wake or GTech? Discuss...

Georgia Tech has the quality wins, inlcuding one road win at VCU.

Wake has the clear road win advantage. Tech only has 2 road wins (although one at VCU)
Individual Rankings -- Georgia Tech has some of the worst ranking of any P5 school.
OOC SOS - Clear advantage Wake (although there is some double counting here with road wins)
Georgia Tech has 2 bad losses at home.

Wake has the advantage IMO. I think those power ratings of Georgia Tech will not help them at all.

 

[jncuse]

They had quite a few more updated from today, so just updated the %'s

Today vs Yesterday

Marquette 98% (87%) (Up 11%)
Seton Hall 97% (100%) (Down 3%)
Providence 95% (97%) (Down 2%)
USC 95% (90%) (up 5%)
Xavier 95% (100%) (Down 5%)
Wake Forest 78% (Up 53%)
Syracuse 69% (77%) (Down 8%)
Illinois St 61% (80%) (Down 19%)
Illinois 56% (28%) (Up 28%)
Cal 54% (71%) (Down 17%)
-----
Rhode Island 39% (53%) (Down 14%)
Vanderbilt 24% (40%) (Down 16%)
Kansas St 15% (8%) (Up 7%)
Houston 10% (13%) (Down 3%)
Georgia Tech 3% (9%) (Down 6%)
Clemson 5% (0%) (Up 5%)
Georgia 5% (6%) (Down 1%)
Clemson 3% (0%) (Up 3%)
Ohio St 3% (3%)
TCU 0% (9%) (Down 9%)

Seems like we lost a little more support last night with the now higher sample. We went down 8% -- but teams with empty win totals still got hit generally twice as worse like Rhode Island, Vandy, Cal, and illinois St.

Wake moved ahead of us, which I am sure we all wondering if that is really the case with the committee. Some much more than others.

 

[jncuse]

As was reported a few times ealier in this tread, this was a bullet dodged. Houston is 0-4 agaomst SMU and Cincy this year which is really the heart of the AAC. There is not many other quality wins in that conference. They do have good power numbers -- they have to beat one of SMU/Cincy is the AAC to get in, and even that would be a surprise. The AAC is still one of my bubble buster concerns. If both Cincy/SMU coast, it opens a spot for somebody.

 

[jncuse]

Although less than 50/50, as an at-large Middle Tenn would still muddy the waters a little bit more. A loss would have probably been enough to knock them out. At least this will knock them down the KP/BPI rankings a few notches, which in my view is integral to their case as an at large.

 

[Chris02M]

i have mtsu right on the border , as of today i have them as the last team in if they lose their conference tourney final

 

[jncuse]

Should have listened to Az.

Iowa, one of the 4 longshots I said I was not going to follow earlier in the thread, earned my following for one more game anyway. Have not a chance to fully digest resume, but will check what 2 top 50 wins to end the season would do for them.

 

[pearl31]

my god Wisconsin is terrible right now

 

[jncuse]

Iowa now has 5 top 50 wins (including 2 on the road at Maryland and now Wisconsin). Their OOC was not good, but they did beat Iowa St at home.
If they beat Penn St, win first B10 game, and then get a quality win in the B10 tourney, they will be in the discussion.

That being said I don't think Memphis or Utah are legit even with a run. Not in a good enough conference. The B10 is still one of the 4 conferences that is well above the rest and gives you decent win chances. It's hard to make a late move in the AAC or P12.

 

[pearl31]

not able to check right now - what are Iowa's computer #s right now?

 

[jncuse]

not able to check right now - what are Iowa's computer #s right now?

Not good. Per Nirvana's rankings their average is 77. It probably moves up to the mid high 60's after tonight, but still a bit of a negative for them.

 

[pearl31]

Not good. Per Nirvana's rankings their average is 77. It probably moves up to the mid high 60's after tonight, but still a bit of a negative for them.

still better than, say, Georgia Tech's though right?

 

[jncuse]

still better than, say, Georgia Tech's though right?

Entering today of the 30 teams he calculates them for they were #29 and Georgia Tech was #30.

 

[jncuse]

Watching this Cal-Utah game. How many times has the play by play guy kissed Brad Daugherty's ass?

Good news is that Utah is crushing Cal by 20 at the half. So Cal's weak resume will roll off the in side of the matrix (which it may have never belonged in).

This is only Utah's second top 100 win, so they are not a threat despite their good record for a P5 team.

 

[AZcuse77]

Watching this Cal-Utah game. How many times has the play by play guy kissed Brad Daugherty's ass?

Good news is that Utah is crushing Cal by 20 at the half. So Cal's weak resume will roll off the in side of the matrix (which it may have never belonged in).

This is only Utah's second top 100 win, so they are not a threat despite their good record for a P5 team.

This sounds right... though playing devil's advocate beating Stanford next game would be the third, and Colorado is also top 100 in KenPom which would be 5 by that system. They would then have to beat another top 100 being the #4/5 seed, then beat the #1 seed in Oregon/AZ to get to then lose the final ... finishing either 14-8 23-11 or 13-8 22-11 (depending on byes) with a KP in the low 40's and only quality wins being SC Cal (x2 probably) and Oregon/AZ with either 5 or 7 Top 100 wins. Quite a longshot but they sure are destroying Cal right now. The announcer said Utah needs "a win or two in the tournament" but I doubt they even looked in to it.

 

[jdubs30]

I believe X and Cal are both quickly costing themselves a bid.

Iowa is interesting - but not a threat yet.

The good news for the AAC Tournament for us is - SMU and Cincy will be on opposite sides of the bracket; also they'll each only need 2 wins to get the Championship. And that bottom of that conference is so freaking weak that their first games should be cake walks (the 1 seed will get the 8/9 winner and the 2 seed will get the 7/10 winner).

That'd means they'd BOTH have to lose in the semis to guarantee a bid stealer.

EDIT: I actually - I looked at last year's bracket, but it will be different this year because SMU didn't participate last year. Regardless - Houston losing last night is big time. As long as SMU and Cincy win at least 1 game in the tournament - there will be no steal.

 

[orangenirvana]

Who do you have in right now instead of Wake, Cal, Illinois St (and USC possibly?)

If I were to rank my bubble teams if the Tourney started today (not who I would choose - irrelevant, obviously - but how I think the committee would rank them today)...

1. Northwestern
2. Virginia Tech
3. Michigan State
4. Providence
5. Vanderbilt
6. VCU
7. Syracuse
8. Seton Hall
9. Arkansas
10. Xavier
11. Illinois
12. Iowa
13. Rhode Island

First five out - Indiana, Kansas State, Georgia Tech, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest

Illinois State not far behind Wake. USC down a few after that. I'd barely consider California a bubble team.

 

[Jasoncuse]

They had quite a few more updated from today, so just updated the %'s

Today vs Yesterday

Marquette 98% (87%) (Up 11%)
Seton Hall 97% (100%) (Down 3%)
Providence 95% (97%) (Down 2%)
USC 95% (90%) (up 5%)
Xavier 95% (100%) (Down 5%)
Wake Forest 78% (Up 53%)
Syracuse 69% (77%) (Down 8%)
Illinois St 61% (80%) (Down 19%)
Illinois 56% (28%) (Up 28%)
Cal 54% (71%) (Down 17%)
-----
Rhode Island 39% (53%) (Down 14%)
Vanderbilt 24% (40%) (Down 16%)
Kansas St 15% (8%) (Up 7%)
Houston 10% (13%) (Down 3%)
Georgia Tech 3% (9%) (Down 6%)
Clemson 5% (0%) (Up 5%)
Georgia 5% (6%) (Down 1%)
Clemson 3% (0%) (Up 3%)
Ohio St 3% (3%)
TCU 0% (9%) (Down 9%)

Seems like we lost a little more support last night with the now higher sample. We went down 8% -- but teams with empty win totals still got hit generally twice as worse like Rhode Island, Vandy, Cal, and illinois St.

Wake moved ahead of us, which I am sure we all wondering if that is really the case with the committee. Some much more than others.

Wake gets 1 good win and they move up like that? Jeez, recency bias and all that...