Bubble Watch - Week of February 18 to 24
- Thread starter jncuse
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pearl31
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they're actually somewhat similar to us - a few really good top-end wins but a bunch of losses including a couple bad ones - only difference I suppose (if the committee considers it all) is our conf record vs theirs
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[1) Miami over Clemson -Good for bubble not as advantageous for standing
Need the better Tourney teams in BEast to win
2)Nova over Hall -GOOD
3)Xavier over Marquette
4)Creighton over Georgetown
Need tourney teams to take care of the bubble:4/5
Would be great
5)Iowa state over TCU
6)Kentucky over Georgia
7)West Virginia over Texas Tech GOOD
8)SMU over Houston
9)Duke over Wake -GOOD
Need these upsets: maybe one out of this group :
10) Loyola over Illinois state
11) Texas list over Kansas stateBAD
12) Old miss over Arkansas
13) Missouri lost over Tennessee BAD
So far 4/4from the first group and 0/2 from the second[/QUOTE]
Need the better Tourney teams in BEast to win
2)Nova over Hall -GOOD
3)Xavier over Marquette
4)Creighton over Georgetown
Need tourney teams to take care of the bubble:4/5
Would be great
5)Iowa state over TCU
6)Kentucky over Georgia
7)West Virginia over Texas Tech GOOD
8)SMU over Houston
9)Duke over Wake -GOOD
Need these upsets: maybe one out of this group :
10) Loyola over Illinois state
11) Texas list over Kansas stateBAD
12) Old miss over Arkansas
13) Missouri lost over Tennessee BAD
So far 4/4from the first group and 0/2 from the second[/QUOTE]
jdubs30
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Yes sir. Eerily similar to us.
They had a slight overall record edge (17-10 vs. 16-11)
But we have the edge in RPI and SOS (78 vs. 86 in RPI and 51 vs. 89 in SOS)
They are 3-7 vs. the top 50 while we are 5-6.
They're 2-1 vs. 51-100 and we're 2-2.
They're 4-2 vs. 101 - 200 and we're 4-3.
We have the better OOC win (47 Monmouth vs. 100 Richmond)
We're also better on the road (wins vs. 51 and 106 compared to 100 and 191 (neutral site) for them)
They have losses vs. 149 and 176 - we have losses vs. 111,119 and 200.
For several reasons I believe we have the better overall resume - including 7 top 60 wins while Tech has 3 top 99 wins.
They are one of the teams that is right in the same area with us
jncuse
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Texas Tech threatened but enough in the end. Typically a game like this does not hurt in itself, but when you are outside the bubble with 3 weeks to go, your biggest opponent is time remaining to make a move.
The bubble is now 3-5. But nobody has really made a move below the line.
Let's see if anybody catches Clemson by the end of the weekend. Tennessee beating Missouri ... I don't know if that is much of a mover.
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Update 13 games tracking in main group-went 4/4 to start
Nova over ---1/1
West Virginia over Texas Tech--2/2
Duke over Wake---3/3
Miami over Clemson ---4/4
Miami winning is better for the bubble situation but worse for the conference standings
Games later: need to get at least three out of five 5/5could happen
Xavier over Marquette
Creighton over Georgetown
Iowa state over TCU
Kentucky over Georgia
SMU over Houston
Still Need 1 of these upsets:
maybe one out of this group : 0/2 to start
Texas over Kansas state 0/1
Missouri over Tennessee 0/2
Old miss over Arkansas
Loyola over Illinois state
Nova over ---1/1
West Virginia over Texas Tech--2/2
Duke over Wake---3/3
Miami over Clemson ---4/4
Miami winning is better for the bubble situation but worse for the conference standings
Games later: need to get at least three out of five 5/5could happen
Xavier over Marquette
Creighton over Georgetown
Iowa state over TCU
Kentucky over Georgia
SMU over Houston
Still Need 1 of these upsets:
maybe one out of this group : 0/2 to start
Texas over Kansas state 0/1
Missouri over Tennessee 0/2
Old miss over Arkansas
Loyola over Illinois state
orangenirvana
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Pitt blowing out Florida State
jdubs30
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Anyone else think if Pitt runs the table prior to the ACCT that they're back in the conversation?
- Right now they have #10 SOS and #60 RPI - both more than good enough for an at-large
- They did very good damage out of conference: @Maryland, Penn State (neutral), Marquette (neutral) - then a loss to SMU (neutral)
- Of their 12 losses right now - 8 are against the top 50
- They do have a bad loss against Duquense - but other than that their worst loss is @ NC State
- They also have wins against UVA and Syracuse
They look like they will be beat FSU today.
So for arguments sake, if they win out they'll finish: 19-12 overall, 8-10 in the ACC. After FSU today they have @Wake, UNC @GaTech and @UVA. Gotta think they'd be a lock if they win out - and in decent shape if they finish 4-1.
- Right now they have #10 SOS and #60 RPI - both more than good enough for an at-large
- They did very good damage out of conference: @Maryland, Penn State (neutral), Marquette (neutral) - then a loss to SMU (neutral)
- Of their 12 losses right now - 8 are against the top 50
- They do have a bad loss against Duquense - but other than that their worst loss is @ NC State
- They also have wins against UVA and Syracuse
They look like they will be beat FSU today.
So for arguments sake, if they win out they'll finish: 19-12 overall, 8-10 in the ACC. After FSU today they have @Wake, UNC @GaTech and @UVA. Gotta think they'd be a lock if they win out - and in decent shape if they finish 4-1.
They have ten conference losses, they are done.
pearl31
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wrong
pearl31
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I would agree with that, tho I'd find it highly highly unlikely that they'll go better than 2-3
orangenirvana
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Raining in Arizona? Have they officially declared it a natural disaster yet?
SUfaninAZ
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Been raining a lot so far this year.
PoppyHart
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If they really do look @ the entire body of work, their resume is very similar, and arguably stronger, than ours.
That said, I can envision a 7-11 team getting in (6-10 has happened before). But as for letting a 6-12 in, i'll believe it when I see it.
But running the table? They would be safely in.
jdubs30
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Agreed - we both beat UVA, FSU and split with each other. The real difference is they have that great win @Maryland - we have nothing close to that. However we have a few good wins vs. RPI-solid, NCAA tournament hopeful teams (Clemson, Miami, Wake) which Pitt doesn't have. That's the real difference.
I don't think conference record matters - if they get to 18/19 wins overall, they will probably be in - if nto very close
One more loss and they are done, a 7-11 team is not getting in.
agreed.
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Yes one more
Their remaining schedule is at wake, at gt, at uva, and Unc, they will be lucky to get a split, they can think about the Nit.
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Well they lost a very close game at UNC by one possession I don't see any games on that schedule harder than that one
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