Confidence meter?

[Alsacs]

You guys are really setting yourself for a rough day Tomm. What's ironic is that in that group of "hopefuls" are posters who believe the NCAA is "out to get us". Yet they still believe that they'll pick a JB team over a JB (beilein) team. Ain't happening

I don't believe their is a conspiracy against Syracuse University. Jim Boeheim is different than Syracuse University. I highly doubt the selection committee has anything to do with what the NCAA wants done. I am looking at the numbers and what criteria the selection committee has used for forever.

If they want to change how things have been done okay we shouldn't be close but the facts/data point to Syracuse being in. If the facts/data didn't point to this conclusion I would be one of the leaders banging that drum.

 

[FortyFourCT]

I am sad to say that I really feel this board has set itself up for major disappointment tomorrow. We are not a good team, our great wins are not all that great really, we had many winnable games down the stretch and dropped everyone except NCSU, who suck. We didn't win a single ACCT game and the bubble has never been kind to us.

I'd say we have about a 1% chance, but this board has talked itself into a bid, which is not going to be offered. I was telling my friends a few weeks ago I think this team could honestly make a run to the F4 with a decent bracket, but the last few weeks have convinced me otherwise. God I hope I am dead wrong, but I don't see us in at all.

 

[pearl31]

hey look, another WE DON'T DESERVE IT WE LOST 5 OF 6 THERE ARE NO OTHER QUESTIONABLE TEAMS OUT THERE post!

 

[Alsacs]

I am one of the biggest realists on this board. I don't drink the kool-aid. When I look at the bubble and our resume we should be in.

If we don't get in it will be because the committee doesn't use it usual criteria.

 

[CaptainJ]

I am sad to say that I really feel this board has set itself up for major disappointment tomorrow. We are not a good team, our great wins are not all that great really, we had many winnable games down the stretch and dropped everyone except NCSU, who suck. We didn't win a single ACCT game and the bubble has never been kind to us.

I'd say we have about a 1% chance, but this board has talked itself into a bid, which is not going to be offered. I was telling my friends a few weeks ago I think this team could honestly make a run to the F4 with a decent bracket, but the last few weeks have convinced me otherwise. God I hope I am dead wrong, but I don't see us in at all.

If the committee weighted the last 10 games like they used to, I could agree more easily. Based on their recent play, I dont feel they "deserve" to be in. However when looking at their competition's resumes, they look like they likely have a decent shot. Another way to look at it is they are a game(or a basket) away from being a lock, and Boeheim's absence is supposedly going to be considered like having a star athlete out. If that can't equate to the 1 win that would have been a lock, I'm not sure what good it is to consider it.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Feeling 40/60. If we performed better when Boeheim returned then I'd feel better. That argument/ship has sailed.

 

[pearl31]

I am one of the biggest realists on this board. I don't drink the kool-aid. When I look at the bubble and our resume we should be in.

If we don't get in it will be because the committee doesn't use it usual criteria.

I think we should be in based on our profile compared to the other applicable teams. Like you say, if we don't get in it means the committee is using different methods than those they publicly state they use. That said, I'm not going to be upset if we're not in - this isn't a team that could make a run anyway.
What annoys me is people just chiming in with the "we're out, just face it" bit with no rationale in regard to the selection criteria. I would welcome someone on here to present an objective, criteria-based stance on why SU should not get in.

 

[CorduroyG]

Feeling 40/60. If we performed better when Boeheim returned then I'd feel better. That argument/ship has sailed.

Not really. Our losses with hop were MUCH worse than the losses with boeheim. Only non tourny team we lost to ALL SEASON with jb was fsu on the road, and its not like fsu is awful. With hop we lost to gtown, st johns and at home to clemson, easily our 3 worst losses of the year.

 

[Alsacs]

I think we should be in based on our profile compared to the other applicable teams. Like you say, if we don't get in it means the committee is using different methods than those they publicly state they use. That said, I'm not going to be upset if we're not in - this isn't a team that could make a run anyway.
What annoys me is people just chiming in with the "we're out, just face it" bit with no rationale in regard to the selection criteria. I would welcome someone on here to present an objective, criteria-based stance on why SU should not get in.

Exactly if we don't make it then its our own fault. With that said the bottom of the bubble sucks and our resume is better than these teams. It is a joke how people just want to say we don't deserve it because of the lost 5 of 6 argument. We passed the eye test in these games. @UL/Pitt/NCSU/@UNC/@FSU/Pitt-N is not like we were playing cupcakes.
We passed the eye test in all of these games. We lost. We aren't going to win the NC but Gbinije and co. deserve to play in the NCAAT over Temple/St. Bonaventure/Monmouth/Michigan/these other bubble teams.

 

[CaptainJ]

Feeling 40/60. If we performed better when Boeheim returned then I'd feel better. That argument/ship has sailed.

Another way to consider it was that that was indeed the narrative for quite a time, and I'm not sure it should be completely discarded due to the epic meltdown at the end. I mean, we could consider that with Hopkins in the game SU wouldn't have had the ball with a chance to tie in Chapel Hill with under 10 seconds left, and that other losses could have been worse as well. I'm not saying this primarily to you, but to everyone, as I'm not sure if anyone has asked it from this perspective yet. Could we not have been even worse down the stretch without Boeheim?

 

[SoBeCuse]

Another way to consider it was that that was indeed the narrative for quite a time, and I'm not sure it should be completely discarded due to the epic meltdown at the end. I mean, we could consider that with Hopkins in the game SU wouldn't have had the ball with a chance to tie in Chapel Hill with under 10 seconds left, and that other losses could have been worse as well. I'm not saying this primarily to you, but to everyone, as I'm not sure if anyone has asked it from this perspective yet. Could we not have been even worse down the stretch without Boeheim?

Yeah hard to say. We don't know to a certainty that having JB would've been automatic wins VS StJ or GTown. We looked overmatched at every position in those games frankly.

 

[obliterata]

I am sad to say that I really feel this board has set itself up for major disappointment tomorrow. We are not a good team, our great wins are not all that great really, we had many winnable games down the stretch and dropped everyone except NCSU, who suck. We didn't win a single ACCT game and the bubble has never been kind to us.

There's always hope. In 1998 Florida State made it, here's part of their resume:

- OOC lost to South Florida who finished 17-13 and didn't make the NCAAT or NIT
- finished tied for 6th in a 9-school ACC (6-10)
- lost their first round ACC tournament game to the 8th place team (0-1)
- therefore overall finished 6-11 in the ACC
- went 0-6 against the top 3 teams in the ACC
- went 1-9 against the top 5 teams in the ACC
- went 1-6 in their last 7 games before the selection show
- was sitting at 17-13 before the selection show

and they got a bid. How did they get it you ask? They beat #11 UConn in November and #5 Arizona in December.

 

[CaptainJ]

I would welcome someone on here to present an objective, criteria-based stance on why SU should not get in.

As long as we can avoid hearing why after the selection show tomorrow, I can deal with not hearing it at all. I agree, so far I haven't seen it laid out well other than the meltdown at the end, and think I have seen numerous, well-explained reasons we could or even should be in. That said, I don't put much out of the realm of possibility when it comes to the selection committee, especially in relation to Boeheim.

I think this season's SU team, among others, could be at the level of precedent setting as a measure of how the selection committee operates.

 

[kirbivore]

I think they've got enough of a chance that I'll watch the selections show, but in the back of my mind I still think Lucy is going to pull the football away.

 

[CaptainJ]

I think they've got enough of a chance that I'll watch the selections show, but in the back of my mind I still think Lucy is going to pull the football away.

One of my favorite metaphors! Kudos to you sir!