The early returns on this season have not been good. Man would love to be wrong but by the time they leave c'ville I expect this board will be unreadable and the ncaa tourney will be a pipe dream. I did not expect to think that.
- JJ will be great to have next year to replace Judah bc fairly similar skillset (and flaws) but as far as this years team, thus far has not looked like he can be an effective 2. I did not realize his shooting was suspect and based on form does not look promising...
- Judah is if course a fantastic talent but it's hard to imagine him ever being in an NBA rotation. I think he makes players better bc he's a good leader and tough competitor, but not via his style of play. His shot looks like it had higher ceiling than JJ, especially from 10-15 feet.
- I can't disagree with those that say it's sink or swim time for Benny, but I think a good season from Benny (unlikely but possible) is the only realistic scenario where this team is tourney caliber (unless westry gets healthy and fills that role as someone who can both shoot and drive and play d).
- the future looks somewhat promising with freeman and Moore (potentially plus a transfer) added to what will be a solid nucleus nexf year, but this year my hope for tourney has dropped from 65% to 30% through these first games.
Might I retort:
- Imho, JJ can be a very effective 2 because other than being able to hit the 3-ball, JJ has exhibited an ability to create his own shot and efficiently make the mid-range pull-up or the floater. Even in today's game, which is 3-ball heavy, if a Shooting Guard can defend, rebound, create his own shot, hit the mid-range, finish at the cup and make the occasional assist, he can
still be an effective 2 - even if he can't hit the 3 consistently.
Never played college ball but have always played the 2 in intramurals and corporate leagues. Even though I was (still am) a great shooter, my shooting efficiency abruptly ENDS at the old college 3-point line bc anything beyond that distance is simply out of my range. For me, as I'm sure it is for other shooters, shooting from outside of my range requires me to change my natural shooting motion and mechanics, which is why I can bang college 3's all day but can't hit NBA 3's to save my life. But on any team I've ever played on, I've always been one the leading scorers bc I could always put the ball on the floor, dribble into my shooting comfort zone, hit a pull-up or finish at the rim (well below it! Lol).
JJ can do all of that as well. His game has EVERYTHING a successful 2-guard needs to have EXCEPT the ability to consistently hit 3's. Historically there are plenty of 2's who didn't shoot well from deep but who were still effective - D. Wade is the most obvious example of that, L. Sprewell was another. JJ doesn't have Wade's body type or Sree's elite athleticism but JJ does exhibit the skill-set to be a Wade or Spree-like 2 who gets it done without the 3-ball. Starling can defend fairly well, rebounds great for a guard, creates his own shot, makes the mid-range & the floater, finishes at the cup and makes a few assists. Imo, JJ can hoop, he just can't shoot from deep yet. But I don't think that precludes him from still being an effective Shooting Guard you can win games with.
- Same logic applies to Judah - he has all the requisite tools to an effective
Point Guard but like JJ, he doesn't shoot well from deep. But his 23 pts a game prove that he can still score and an have a winning impact on games - even if he plays a little out of control at times. But with his immense talent and drive, I have confidence that Red and his staff can coach him up well enough to mold him into a winning player. As he demonstrated vs Colgate, when needed most, he was on his A-game - and he was a gd problem! He definitely needs to mature and stop feeling himself so much (pause) but I'm high on Mintz. I think he can be - or maybe already is - the team's alpha leader. And every winning team needs one.
- through the exhibitions and first three games, there has been one glaring omission from this year's team. And that's ANY sort of low post scoring presence. Obviously, Jesse moving on created that huge hole. But he's gone now and that hole still has to be filled if this team is going to win this year. 7'4 McCloud, at times, looks like he's never played basketball before? Not trying to bash the kid but he goes for HUGE stretches on offense where he's literally just standing there with his arms out looking lost? Not trying to post anyone, not trying to set screens, not looking to roll for a lob, not trying to position himself for a rebound - he's just standing there looking like, "Whadda I do now?" Other than winning every opening tip and an occasional blocked shot, I don't see much there other than extreme height.
So with McCloud being so limited offensively at this stage of his development, somebody is going to have to provide a scoring threat in the low post. I think Brown can possibly be adequate in that role, although I haven't seen much evidence of it so far this year.
And that's where I believe Benny can salvage his season/career and help this team the most. If Benny can provide some low post scoring and offensive rebounding, he could be a huge piece of the puzzle. However, if he insists - and Red allows him to continue to play out on the perimeter looking to launch 3's, unless he becomes a reliable-to-lethal 3 pt shooter, I don't see how he contributes - especially if Bell and Taylor continue to emerge as the team's primary perimeter shooters. But if Benny can develop an ability to score in the post, he could become a valuable contributor. It remains to be seen if this can happen.
Like Williams, what Westry can ultimately contribute remains a bit of a mystery. But if he can do anything CLOSE to what his HS highlight clips show, he SHOULD be able to come in and contribute - especially if he's as "pass first" as he's advertised to be. And if he can shoot, that would help too. While Kuffe hasn't "wowed" yet with his play, he has demonstrated the ability to play effective minutes, which is all you want from your back end rotational players. Hopefully, Westry can at least meet that bar and if he can be more, awesome.
- Forgive the long wind up but I said all of the above to make the point that initially caused me to reply. Before the season, considering all the off-season moves and looking at the resultant team on paper, I too thought the team had about a 55-65% chance to make the tournament this season. But unlike the poster - who said their 'tournament hopes %' of 65% has dropped down to 30% - I'm actually bullish the other way. I'm now up to about 70%.
After watching the exhibitions, the first three games and seeing Red speak multiple times, I'm now convinced that this team has the talent, heart and coaching needed to navigate their way to a tourney bid. I have no doubt that it won't always be pretty. And I fully expect bad performances as well head scratching decisions from both the players & Red throughout the course of the season - all natural for a new coach with young/new players.
But if the team stays and gets healthy (Westry/Carey?), I've seen enough talent and grit from this squad & staff - in this admittedly small sample size of games - to believe that they can finish the regular season with a winning overall record and rt at or just over .500 in ACC play. If that ends up being the record, that
should be worthy of an NCAA bid.
I don't THINK I'm being overly optimistic but I admit, I could be wearing orange-tinted glasses rt now. But we shall see.
