Here is what I can PROMISE all the "fire Shafer" people

[TheCusian]

Are we? Against Nova we had 3 FGs (counting Dixon as FG as O didn't score) & TD. Against CMU we had a FG & 4 TDs. MD was 2 FGs, missed FG (not McDonald's fault), 2 TDs, and an INT (not McDonald's fault). ND was a FG, missed FG (not McDonald's fault), and a TD. Louisville was 2 FGs. IMO the best way to evaluate a Redzone O is by TDs. TOs are not the fault of the OC. Neither are missed FGs. So in 2014 we had 20 possessions and scored 8 TDs for a 40% rate. This year we are getting TDs at a 57% rate. It is much better but it is still 87th in the nation.

Statistically better, no?

 

[baggerbob]

They have to find away to harness the freelancing within an coherent scheme. Lester has an idea of what he wants to do and they prepped for 8 months to go a certain way. They didn't know what they had in Dungey until August.

They are all learning on the fly, trying to fit within in a "get it to the fourth quarter" mentality, all while trying to run this system at the same time.

The setup after the spring, and through the fall camp, had Hunt as our QB for the season. He is more a running back then a passer, so the players around him were ones who benefited from that system. New QB who can run, but is a good passer, you need someone who can go across the middle, for quick catches, and break a few tackles. Sit the current backup WR, and move Custis, and Enoicy in there.

 

[TheCusian]

just so you know, in conference play, syracuse's points per red zone appearance is 100th.

That's 2 games out of 6 for those counting at home.

Also didn't know there were a 100 teams in our conference - so being 3rd in our division is super awesome.

 

[Millhouse]

Are we?

Against Nova we had 3 FGs (counting Dixon as FG as O didn't score) & TD. Against CMU we had a FG & 4 TDs. MD was 2 FGs, missed FG (not McDonald's fault), 2 TDs, and an INT (not McDonald's fault). ND was a FG, missed FG (not McDonald's fault), and a TD. Louisville was 2 FGs.

IMO the best way to evaluate a Redzone O is by TDs. TOs are not the fault of the OC. Neither are missed FGs. So in 2014 we had 20 possessions and scored 8 TDs for a 40% rate. This year we are getting TDs at a 57% rate. It is much better but it is still 87th in the nation.

112th in td% in conference play

 

[TheCusian]

112th in td% in conference play

Using national numbers and "in conference play" seems kind of flawed data wise

 

[Millhouse]

That's 2 games out of 6 for those counting at home.

Also didn't know there were a 100 teams in our conference - so being 3rd in our division is super awesome.

91st vs p5
82nd vs fbs

yippee

 

[TheCusian]

91st vs p5

That's better.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

that's not remotely true at all. Welsh and Robinson did not regress. Kelly and Reddish did not regress. Simmons and Arcineaga did not regrees. Raymon has not regressed. What other names are out there. DDavis? Lynch ? Hodge?

Outside of Reddish those guys you mentioned didn't show a lot as underclassmen and where not good until upperclassmen. Our LBs seem to regress every year, including Franklin this year.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

Except in the red zone. And passing efficiency.

Also O S&P+ for 2013: 26.2
2014: 23.2
2015: 27.1

Isn't that statistically better?

Again this year is right on line for 2013. We play good Ds the rest of the way we aren't likely to stay at 27.1 which is 0.9 ahead of 2013.

 

[TheCusian]

Also - I'd rather score more TD's covering a bunch of yardage real explosive like - but the question wasn't "are we Baylor" it was "we're not statistically better on O vs 2013."

Which was proven incorrect. Pretty sure we're better at throwing the ball too. Explosive plays are probably up as well.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

Also - I'd rather score more TD's covering a bunch of yardage real explosive like - but the question wasn't "are we Baylor" it was "we're not statistically better on O vs 2013."

Which was proven incorrect. Pretty sure we're better at throwing the ball too. Explosive plays are probably up as well.

How was that proven incorrect if the stat for 2013 S&P+ O rank was higher than this years?

 

[Millhouse]

They have to find away to harness the freelancing within an coherent scheme. Lester has an idea of what he wants to do and they prepped for 8 months to go a certain way. They didn't know what they had in Dungey until August.

They are all learning on the fly, trying to fit within in a "get it to the fourth quarter" mentality, all while trying to run this system at the same time.

the only way they're going to move the ball in this offense is for dungey to be superman freelancing.

they don't seem that interested in throwing easy passes to WR, they can't run the ball, the hybrid is not confusing enough to offset o line issues to put it kindly

lester gets 2 years as offensive coordinator learning on the fly because of unexpected qbs. this guy is really lucky. see, this year doesn't count because his QB was unexpectedly good!

 

[TheCusian]

Again this year is right on line for 2013. We play good Ds the rest of the way we aren't likely to stay at 27.1 which is 0.9 ahead of 2013.

Look - you said statistically better - which is not true for at least one category. 0.9 is still better.

But honestly - the upside with this young offense is way way higher than that Hunt led offense. You have to agree with that, no?

 

[TheCusian]

How was that proven incorrect if the stat for 2013 S&P+ O rank was higher than this years?

It's not. 2015 is higher than both of the last two years.

 

[Millhouse]

It's not. 2015 is higher than both of the last two years.

last year doesn't count, wait no last year counts, wait no last year doesnt count

 

[TheCusian]

the only way they're going to move the ball in this offense is for dungey to be superman freelancing. they don't seem that interested in throwing easy passes to WR, they can't run the ball, the hybrid is not confusing enough to offset o line issues to put it kindly lester gets 2 years as offensive coordinator learning on the fly because of unexpected qbs. this guy is really lucky. see, this year doesn't count because his QB was unexpectedly good!

Context is important.

 

[TheCusian]

last year doesn't count, wait no last year counts, wait no last year doesnt count

Irrelevant to the point, leave it out don't care - still right

 

[K Otto XLIV]

It's not. 2015 is higher than both of the last two years.

75th is higher than 83rd. Not sure what you are missing there. Our O has to improve just to keep level because the rest of the way we play stronger Defenses. So we can look better on O but be statistically the same as a result.

 

[TheCusian]

75th is higher than 83rd. Not sure what you are missing there. Our O has to improve just to keep level because the rest of the way we play stronger Defenses. So we can look better on O but be statistically the same as a result.

The ranking is one thing (ranking vs other teams) - but I'd think if you're comparing the two seasons you'd go by actual O S&P+

2015: 27.1
2013: 26.2

 

[Orange4]

Honesty if he wins at least 5 games this year and has the overwhelming support of the players like some of you are saying than there is no way he gets canned this year. 2016-2017 season Shafer needs to get his together or he will literally be run out of town.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

It's a BC Beagle story, but it's in the neighborhood.

 

[Millhouse]

Honesty if he wins at least 5 games this year and has the overwhelming support of the players like some of you are saying than there is no way he gets canned this year. 2016-2017 season Shafer needs to get his . . . . together or he will literally be run out of town.

that's where I get. 4 he goes, 5 he stays.

but i think there maybe should be some staff shakeup on offense even if they get to 5

 

[jr4750]

Honesty if he wins at least 5 games this year and has the overwhelming support of the players like some of you are saying than there is no way he gets canned this year. 2016-2017 season Shafer needs to get his . . . . together or he will literally be run out of town.

I realize its a long shot, but there are 3 more wins on the schedule, should we play smart. UVA hurt a lot, but I don't fear Pitt, BC, or NCSU. I also think we at least scare UL or Clemson, cause its a home. This week against Pitt at home shows me a ton about Shafer and his hold on the team. They come out flat, we might need a change. Huge game we have to at least be ready to play for, win or lose. We certainly have the talent, and we must get better ASAP. I agree with you 5 wins, he stays for sure. I think he stays with 4. He loses 9 in a row to finish 3-9... ugh.

 

[TheCusian]

It's a BC Beagle story, but it's in the neighborhood.

Interesting to note that Briles had 2 more wins in 3 complete seasons than Shafer in 2.5.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

It's a BC Beagle story, but it's in the neighborhood.

I think with most good coaches you start to see some results (wins) in year 3 and then in year 4 is the breakthrough. If we go 4-8 or 3-9 then you cannot make that argument here. You also need to take into consideration that those examples were all starting from scratch, Shafer was not. There is a difference from taking over a bad program that has just fired its coach vs taking over a mediocre program whose coach left for a better gig. On top of that Shafer was an internal hire. The kids on D were recruited by him for his system. That isn't the case on O but the D should have been steady every year.