After thinking about this a lot more, here are my keys:
1. The health of Jarreau. The straw that stirs the drink for Houston. He is their best defender and their best passer. Good size and experience to guard Buddy. I bet they put him at the foul line. Although he’s only shooting 42% from long 2 this year, he can make the right pass and also attack the basket. Although he shoots 57% around the rim, he doesn’t draw a lot of fouls. If Houston does put him there, I say make him shoot. He’s a capable 3pt shooter but doesn’t take them a lot. He’s going to be chasing Buddy around - so if he has to run in with a bunch of picks from Q/Marek, you wonder how that will effect him. He’s by far the most turnover prone player Houston has, so hopefully he has some mistakes against the zone. Him being 90% vs, 50% health wise could decide the game.
2. Rebounding. We will not outrebound Houston, so just forget it now. They rebound nearly 40% of their misses, which is 2nd in the country. Meanwhile, we allow opponents to rebound 34% of their misses, which is 340th. We allowed WVU to rebound 43% of their misses, but we shot so well offensively that it didn’t matter. Houston is better defensively than WVU so we can’t allow that number again. I think if we can keep this to 35% or so, that’ll be good for us. Interestingly enough, we actually have the rebounding edge when we’re on offense and they’re on defense. We rebound 30% of our misses, which is above the national average of 28%, meanwhile Houston is right at 28%. We have the potential to hurt them here. But we really need Q to have a big game.
3. Free Throws. Houston fouls, a lot. 332nd in the country (that’s really bad). In fact, 24% of the points that Houston allows comes from the line, which is 8th highest in the country. We shoot 78% from the line, unfortunately for us we rarely go. Houston really only wants to play 7.5 guys - if we’re aggressive in trying to get them into the paint and get to the line it could be a big equalizer for us. Hopefully we see Buddy attack more. This also suits AG better than Bras and Kadary better than Joe. Houston does have 2 guys that block the ball at a high rate, but they are both 6’8”. Gonna need Marek and Q to be aggressive. On the other side, we don’t foul a lot, nor does Houston draw a ton of fouls. They are a solid FT shooting team though.
4. 3pt shooting. Surprise, surprise! Only Grimes and Sasser shoot a lot of 3s for Houston. Grimes is elite (42% on over 200 attempts) with great size (6’5”) meanwhile Sasser is inconsistent (33%) and small (6’1”). Sasser in general has really struggled from deep for around 2 months now. But he CAN get hot. Other than them, no one shoots it a lot (no one else has over 80 attempts). However, Jarreau can make them. Gorham shoots 36% but has only made 17 on the year. I think it’s pretty obvious you need to focus on Grimes here and maybe Sasser, but I think the zone will pack the paint. Houston is elite at finishing at the rim. Houston has made at least 7 3s in their past 21 games, so you can’t totally ignore the 3, but they aren’t the threat WVU was. If you take out Grimes, they are 32% from 3 as a team. For whatever reason, teams don’t attempt a lot of 3s against Houston this year. Only 12 times in 29 games has a team taken over 20 3s against them - in 27 games we’ve taken over 20 3s 22 times. Houston only allows 29% against them from 3. It’ll be interesting to see how they play us. We can’t be afraid to put it on the deck because it seems like they’ll do what they can to keep us from shooting from 3.
Grimes and Buddy are studs. If one plays well and the other struggles, that could be the game. Role players will be huge here. Can Sasser get hot from 3? Can Q take advantage down low? Will AG wake up? Will a healthy Jarreau carve us up in the zone? Will Joe carry over his shooting from WVU? Will Gorham have a big day on the offensive glass? Can we take advantage of Houston’s tendency to foul?
If Sasser isn’t on from 3 and we hold our own on the glass, I think we win. Grimes is certainly capable of going off - and while Buddy is too, I think this will be his toughest matchup in this hot stretch. Jarreau is the AAC DPOY and he’s 6’5”. Grimes has very favorable defensive metrics and he’s 6’5 205. Buddy will see both. This has to be an offensive game where everyone else gets going for us.
linktr.ee
