IF the ACC breaks up, what are the likely outcomes for Syracuse?

[HRE Otto IV]

The Big12 would like to grab us, but is that the best thing for SU? I don't think so. If we take the self-proclaimed Magnificent 7 out of the ACC (and I have my doubts about NC State and VaTech's value to the Big 2), the ACC would have a viable future as an all-sports conference and enough clout to add some schools - anywhere from WVU, Cincinnati, and UCF down to UConn, Temple, and USF.

BC
Syracuse
Pitt
(Louisville)
Duke
Wake
(GaTech)
(maybe NC State)
(maybe VaTech)

Keep adding until you get 10 members:
WVU
Cincinnati
UCF
Temple
UConn
USF
ECU

Actually, a 9 or 10 team conference is ideal. Play everyone in FB every year. Play every team twice a year in BB. That's when real rivalries develop and league interest is best (proven in the early days of the Big East).

You know WVU and UConn are locks to join if invited. I don't think Navy or Army would join. ND will need a league for its non-FB sports, and the Big2 would not permit what the ACC currently does. So ND may be involved in this ACC with an arrangement to play a minimum of FB games. The Big East is an option for them as well.

I don't think hybrid conferences work long term, ie, having half the league not playing FB. I'd rather not see SU join the current Big East with the schools they've added. But if SU was forced to join a hybrid conference, I would hope only the Gavitt-era Big East teams would be included (GTown, Nova, SJ, Providence, and I suppose Seton Hall ). Not sure they would leave the Big East to get involved with D1 FB schools again.

Why would WV be a lock to join? They have no incentive to leave the B12. Same for UConn should they join the B12.

The problem with the Big East hybrid was the BBall schools having equal power. If the ACC is 10 FB to 3 BBall that won’t be the case. Plus in today’s environment the BBall schools will know their role. Also you had little BBall schools who didn’t even belong in the Big East in the first place. It was a joke that the Big East was run by Providence guys the whole time.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Along with maintaining their football independence, I think ND would be more likely to join their co-religionists and move their other sports to the BE.

ND already left them for the ACC. They won’t pay an exit fee to go back.

IMO they rather be with BC, SU, Pitt, Duke, Wake, GA Tech, a Florida school, a Philly school vs being with Providence, Seton Hall, Xavier, Butler, DePaul, Marquette, Creighton. If you can add Army/Navy in FB even more so. At that point ND will help pull Georgetown and St Johns on the ACC’s behalf.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I don't understand where you are getting you're infoh or sjust your opinion opinion on Florida state in Clemson going to the big 12..?I? Mean that would be great for them obviously and us. Because maybe we would be with maybe we'd be in the same posithen. But I just don't see that I mean those 2 schools have been at the forefront of this whole thing and every single time this has been brought up. They're both pretty much like guaranteed going to one of those 2 conferences.

Why would the B16 or SEC invite either?

IMO there is more reason to not invite FSU than to invite them.

Clemson is not a B16 fit. They fit the SEC but the SEC is already full of brands and in SC. I think it is at best 50-50.

They might want in but it is not their choice. Oregon and Washington wanted in too but were left behind.

 

[TexanMark]

Agreed...HRE

The SEC and FSU/Clemson are great fits but the SEC/B1G have set the bar high what a new team needs to be worth to be additive. Would FSU and Clemson add enough to bump up to 18?

If the SEC wants to go full Machiavellian their best step is to kick out Vandy and one other school for a swap.

I'm not sure school presidents have it in them to do that.

My unintended consequences:

The IRS has enough of the $$ grabs and strips away tax exempt status for the sports teams.

Schools and their fans grow tired of mediocre records because the competition is so tough. Why spend thousands to see us finish 3-6 in league? Vandy fans are used to it, will teams like Auburn and Ole Miss adjust?

Schools gain more fans with no connection to their schools as they become NFL light but these fans bring NFL culture to the events.

Finally, USC and UCLA will it be worth the squeeze for the CA schools? Hopping on jets for 3-5 hrs each way is way worse than 1-2 hours.

 

[longtimefan]

ND already left them for the ACC. They won’t pay an exit fee to go back.

IMO they rather be with BC, SU, Pitt, Duke, Wake, GA Tech, a Florida school, a Philly school vs being with Providence, Seton Hall, Xavier, Butler, DePaul, Marquette, Creighton. If you can add Army/Navy in FB even more so. At that point ND will help pull Georgetown and St Johns on the ACC’s behalf.

If the ACC implodes by 2036 or sooner, as could be inevitable, there might not be an exit fee.

ND would then have a choice--join a reconstituted ACC with a group of leftovers, or rejoin some of their historical opponents (Depaul, Marquette, etc) in a somewhat stable BE.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

If the ACC implodes by 2036 or sooner, as could be inevitable, there might not be an exit fee.

ND would then have a choice--join a reconstituted ACC with a group of leftovers, or rejoin some of their historical opponents (Depaul, Marquette, etc) in a somewhat stable BE.

If the ACC exists, there will be an exit fee. By all indications the 8 to dissolve is kookery. It is more likely 11 or 12.

If the ACC still exits it is still better than the Big East for ND non FB sports.

 

[JimBoston]

I think if the ACC blows up in the next couple of years, Syracuse, Louisville, and Pitt would get Big 12 invites. That would be OK. If the ACC blows up in 12 years, who knows as the sports rights bubble seems close to popping and if that happens, there would be massive realignment.

 

[TexanMark]

BL: Cuse needs to win in FB almost every year going forward with a few Top 25 teams sprinkled in there. Hoops needs to get back to the Top 10.

A few negatives: already a narrative Cuse is bottom P5 leech, Dome reno will reduce capacity to under 45K (if they do they better average over 40K), only the B1G (but no AAU thanks Buzz and Nancy) and Big 12 (geography??) are viable options to stay in BigBoy Sports for FB.

 

[sutomcat]

I think people are vastly overestimating the power and attractiveness of the B12.

They have no football powers. Not one. The ACC has at least 3 football programs that are vastly bigger brands than what the B12 has.

The ACC has a network that brings in a lot of money. The B12 is the only major conference without one. And they are never going to get one. The B12 has a lot of content that gets shown on ESPN+.

And the ACC has stability. Like it or not, GORs work. The only schools that have moved in conferences with GORs moved when the GOR was able to expire. The ACC's GOR is going to expire what, 8 years after the B12's GOR expires.

The only way any ACC school would go to the B12 is if the conference votes to break up. Can't see 8 schools voting to do that. There aren't homes for 8 schools out there better than the current ACC.

 

[Cusefan69]

I think if the ACC blows up in the next couple of years, Syracuse, Louisville, and Pitt would get Big 12 invites. That would be OK. If the ACC blows up in 12 years, who knows as the sports rights bubble seems close to popping and if that happens, there would be massive realignment.

I am willing to eat a crow sandwich if wrong here but I think anyone expecting the ACC to blow up anytime in the next 8 years should probably not hold their breath. Again if it was possible to break the GOR it would have happened already. If it was possible to break up the league, it would be in process and all over the news. The ridiculous 7 wannabes were just churning up the waters to drive some tiered incentives. Nothing more. Everyone else is going ham over the ACC meeting but the ridiculous 7 amounted to a big nothing burger.

 

[kcsu]

I think people are vastly overestimating the power and attractiveness of the B12.

They have no football powers. Not one. The ACC has at least 3 football programs that are vastly bigger brands than what the B12 has.

The ACC has a network that brings in a lot of money. The B12 is the only major conference without one. And they are never going to get one. The B12 has a lot of content that gets shown on ESPN+.

And the ACC has stability. Like it or not, GORs work. The only schools that have moved in conferences with GORs moved when the GOR was able to expire. The ACC's GOR is going to expire what, 8 years after the B12's GOR expires.

The only way any ACC school would go to the B12 is if the conference votes to break up. Can't see 8 schools voting to do that. There aren't homes for 8 schools out there better than the current ACC.

Please Tom stop making sense

 

[BlazeOrange]

I always hated the hybrid, but it might be the best bet. Make a "real" ACC with the (un)Magnificent Nine, plus the BE Originals: Georgetown, St. Johns, Nova, Seton Hall, Providence. If UConn & WVU aren't committed elsewhere, add them too. ND might stick around for allsports as well.

Clearly not a football powerhouse, but if we can't get in the Big Two, it's not gonna matter. May as well create the best hoops and rivalry situation possible. Lax would still have a viable conference as well.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I always hated the hybrid, but it might be the best bet. Make a "real" ACC with the (un)Magnificent Nine, plus the BE Originals: Georgetown, St. Johns, Nova, Seton Hall, Providence. If UConn & WVU aren't committed elsewhere, add them too. ND might stick around for allsports as well.

Clearly not a football powerhouse, but if we can't get in the Big Two, it's not gonna matter. May as well create the best hoops and rivalry situation possible. Lax would still have a viable conference as well.

Providence and Seton Hall had no business being in the original Big East. They are too small time. Otherwise I agree. Would be a good BBall Eastern centric league with access to the FB playoff. So much better than the Big Frankenstein 12.

 

[stlorange]

outcomes...bad and worse...

Only kidding, I think we'll be ok regardless and will have access to the championship playoff... it will be up to us to make it happen...the path will be there...

 

[SWC75]

I just want a conference that makes geographical sense. Stay east coast, preferably northeast. We don't know who until we see what's available.

 

[Cuse#1]

Why would the B16 or SEC invite either?

IMO there is more reason to not invite FSU than to invite them.

Clemson is not a B16 fit. They fit the SEC but the SEC is already full of brands and in SC. I think it is at best 50-50.

They might want in but it is not their choice. Oregon and Washington wanted in too but were left behind.

Yes but there is a big difference when we're talking about Clemson who year in and year out are national title contenders every season!!
When it comes too late it's pretty much all about money and those 2 schools cover. Check all those majust about as good as anybody. That's why or that's the biggest reason.

The last couple years we have seen teams like Texas A&M and now Texas coming into the SEC When they are known that they hate each other and thought that it could never happen, but it did and South Carolina is Not on that level at all.

I mean listen does USC or UCLA fit in the big 10? NO cause it is about Money, that is it. these athletic departments at these schools want as much money as possible and that is what is driving and what has always been driving for a while. it just gets worse and worse every time..

In my opinion, Oregon and Washington will be fine because they are just too valuable to be left behind.I'm not even gonna explain that. Because there's no need? I mean it's just a common sense obvious?

In my opinion pin right now it's just gonna be the big 10 in the EC competing with each other so all things that you would normally use. As a determination on who is gonna be added or out the window? Again it's about money because these 2 conferences want to be as close to each other as possible or close to number one as possible in the NC double. A when it comes to making money and if we didn't have? Of such small time thinker in the ACC which has had potential but it's inevitable at some point. That it's gonna and it really kind of pisses me off. Because again there was potential in that leagueh they just cannot find a commissioner at the level of a Kevin Warren for instance so we suffer because of it.

 

[elimunelson]

I just want a conference that makes geographical sense. Stay east coast, preferably northeast. We don't know who until we see what's available.

This will be our path forward ultimately in 2030 or 2036 or 2336

Playing regional rivals inter conference is our destiny hopefully. I have hope it all ends up that way and common sense prevails

 

[HtownOrange]

If the ACC implodes by 2036 or sooner, as could be inevitable, there might not be an exit fee.

ND would then have a choice--join a reconstituted ACC with a group of leftovers, or rejoin some of their historical opponents (Depaul, Marquette, etc) in a somewhat stable BE.

How does the ACC implode?

Unless all 15 teams AND ESPN agree to disband their is no implosion without the exit fee. If any team does not have a better landing spot AND ESPN will make more money, what incentive is there to implode. It’s not as simple as 8, 10, or 12 schools saying we’re not a conference anymore so the agreements disappear. The GOR acts as a liquidated damages clause, the exit fees and broadcast rights buybacks are defined.

Example: If every team but BC has a good landing and ESPN approves, BC is still likely to cash in on the exit fees and the broadcast rights buybacks.

 

[kcsu]

How does the ACC implode?

Unless all 15 teams AND ESPN agree to disband their is no implosion without the exit fee. If any team does not have a better landing spot AND ESPN will make more money, what incentive is there to implode. It’s not as simple as 8, 10, or 12 schools saying we’re not a conference anymore so the agreements disappear. The GOR acts as a liquidated damages clause, the exit fees and broadcast rights buybacks are defined.

Example: If every team but BC has a good landing and ESPN approves, BC is still likely to cash in on the exit fees and the broadcast rights buybacks.

Again. No school is leaving without paying.

 

[TexanMark]

I just want a conference that makes geographical sense. Stay east coast, preferably northeast. We don't know who until we see what's available.

We need an Atlantic Seaboard Conference...not enough good teams in the segmented NE

Sorta like the Big East and NBE. But the NNBE is cluster from UConn to Omaha.

The ACC can survive and even prosper if only FSU and Clemson leave...I think in 10 years unless GOR is successfully challenged.

I'd add 2-4 teams of UCF, USF, FAU, WVU, Cincy, UConn, TCU, Houston, Temple, etc...my first choices would be just two teams to cut pie only 14 ways. Extending to TX only makes sense if ACC goes to 16-24 teams.

 

[TexanMark]

Again. No school is leaving without paying.

True...but it gets less every year closer to 2036. Just like 2013 I think the ACC survives untouched for now. About 3 years out (2033) the fun begins. In ten years the landscape could be entirely different and maybe BB is valued at 35%?

The scary part is the other conferences renogiate again around 2030.

 

[FreakTalksAboutSU]

We need an Atlantic Seaboard Conference...not enough good teams in the segmented NE

Sorta like the Big East and NBE. But the NNBE is cluster from UConn to Omaha.

The ACC can survive and even prosper if only FSU and Clemson leave...I think in 10 years unless GOR is successfully challenged.

I'd add 2-4 teams of UCF, USF, FAU, WVU, Cincy, UConn, TCU, Houston, Temple, etc...my first choices would be just two teams to cut pie only 14 ways. Extending to TX only makes sense if ACC goes to 16-24 teams.

Of that list give me WVU and Cincy.

 

[TexanMark]

Of that list give me WVU and Cincy.

Good choices.

I'd look at the FL schools too.

Yukon also.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

We need an Atlantic Seaboard Conference...not enough good teams in the segmented NE

Sorta like the Big East and NBE. But the NNBE is cluster from UConn to Omaha.

The ACC can survive and even prosper if only FSU and Clemson leave...I think in 10 years unless GOR is successfully challenged.

I'd add 2-4 teams of UCF, USF, FAU, WVU, Cincy, UConn, TCU, Houston, Temple, etc...my first choices would be just two teams to cut pie only 14 ways. Extending to TX only makes sense if ACC goes to 16-24 teams.

Northeastern would work but too many schools are no longer available (Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers).

An original Big East plus 2 additional schools to get to 10 would work but again too many schools won't likely be available (Rutgers, WV, and ACC M7s Miami, VA Tech).

The non ACC M7s should stick together and rebuild the ACC. They would be better off financially for at least a dozen years if not more.

Of the non ACC M7s BC, SU, Pitt, Duke, Wake, GA Tech are all very similar academic schools. They all have small FB fan bases and struggle to compete NIL wise in FB. You also have Notre Dame who fits with those schools in many ways. IMO it is in everyones best interest to commit to each other. All 7 of the above are better off rebuilding the ACC than finding a new home in the B12 or AAC.

The other non ACC M7 is Louisville, who doesn't really fit with the other schools academically and is not Eastern. If they stayed in the ACC you can have a kick ass BBall league. But I think their ego takes them to the B12.

So the ACC will need to add 4 more schools. If you look at a map the FBS playing Atlantic holes are Florida, South Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, Connecticut.

The best available choice in Florida IMO is FAU. South Carolina only has Coastal Carolina and they aren't worth adding IMO. The best available choice in Virginia IMO is James Madison. There are no available full sport schools in Maryland nor New Jersey. In Connecticut you have UConn (for now at least).

If you add those 3 schools and Louisville stays, you are all set with 10 schools in FB and 11 in BBall. If Louisville leaves, then you will need one more school. So looking at available brands and markets your choices are down to USF and Temple. USF doesn't fit with the other schools. If you want to add Temple, you might as well consider Villanova.

Villanova would be the better fit with the other schools, and have the better BBall brand. It also hurts your main TV and talent competitor in Northeastern BBall as the Big East would lose its two most successful programs (UConn).

So IMO it would be best for ND, BC, SU, Pitt, Duke, WF, GT to stick together and add Florida Atlantic, James Madison, Villanova, and UConn.

In FB you actually have a legit shot at making the playoffs. Yes, it is a little weak as a conference but it is still likely to be the 4th best. Is being in the 3rd best with no shot at the playoffs really better?

That is a heck of a BBall league. You have the potential to be the best conference.

It would be great to play everyone in FB and everyone twice in BBall. That is what a conference is supposed to be. You also have good Thanksgiving weekend FB matchups: BC vs UConn, SU vs Pitt, Nova vs JMU, Duke vs Wake, GA Tech vs FAU.


If you go past 10 teams, you can consider going the hybrid route. Adding Army and Navy in FB adds brand value and gets you into MD, a missing state. Then you can have a 7 + 2/2 scheduling model. So over 4 years you play 7 teams 4x (2H/2A) and 4 teams 2x (1H/1A). Plus you get ND close to every other year.

Then you can add non FB playing Georgetown and St Johns. That would completely kill the Big East in the Northeast. Meaning the ACC would control all of Northeastern BBall, which has to add plenty of $ for TV. Scheduling you can go 4 + 4/4 to play your 20 games. So 4 teams H&A yearly, then rotate the other 8 teams with 4 H&A and 4 H or A. Over 4 years you play 4 teams 8x (4H/4A) and 8 teams 6x (3H/3A).

If the ACC M7s do leave in 10 years, how is the above not SU's (and those other non ACC M7s) best case scenario? You are in an Eastern conference with traditional rivals and like minded schools, have a legit shot at the FB playoffs, and have the best BBall league.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I've been avoiding this topic for a few weeks because I've been traveling, but also because all I keep hearing about it is either doomsdayer talk or pipe dreams.

Let's be real here. What do you all think are the most likely realistic outcomes IF this all happens? I understand it may not.

Here are some of the potential outcomes I have heard...some are in the above categories but maybe someone else thinks they are more realistic I dunno

1- Remaining ACC teams, including Syracuse, expand by bringing in new schools from non P-5 - this is probably the most likely, but I question whether a conference with schools like Syracuse, Duke, BC, Wake...plus schools like Army, UConn, UCF, and Cincinnati is even remotely strong enough to be considered a Power conference any longer
2- Remaining ACC teams, including Syracuse, expand by merging w the PAC-12 leftovers - I've long championed the idea of a bi-coastal conference. I think a conference that includes the ACC remnants plus schools like the Arizona schools, Stanford, San Diego State, Utah, Oregon State...while clunky, would be competitive. But that said, whenever I spoke of a bicoastal conference it was WITH the likes of Miami and FSU. This arrangement would still be the weakest power conference.
3. Going Indy for football, Big East for hoops - I think the program would just get financially crushed going indy for football. I can't see it working.
4. The B1G- I can't see a scenario where we are much value to the B1G unless they do something wild like go to 24 teams and decide they need another northern school for some reason. Even then, I would be they would look at BC first and the Boston market (not that it would get them that, no one gives a shyt about college football in Boston)
5. The entire ACC dissolves and Syracuse ends up in the AAC or similar - Worst case scenario

What other options are there? Are any of the above more viable than I am thinking?

I think the closest possible scenario is #2, but I see it differently. I don't see a great fit with West Coast teams who we seldom, if ever, play.

I think that if the ACC loses 2 to 4 schools, the remainder can carry on as the ACC and backfill other quality programs that make sense geographically; teams who would like to step up to play against Duke, etc. and have enough of a following / history to draw eyeballs.

If the ACC lost Fla. State & Clemson to the SEC, then we still have a very viable conference. You replace them with someone like Cincinnati, and maybe you invite West Virginia. Two quality sports programs in both major sports. Much better geographic fit for them, would probably help their recruiting, and you get into Ohio for football and for TV eyeballs.

If you also lose, say UNC and UVa to the Big 10, but you still keep Duke, of course it would hurt, but if you keep Duke, you still have a viable conference. You replace UNC and UVa with teams like UConn and Temple. You gain the Philly and Metro NYC markets, and you are still adding brand names, to an extent.

Not what I would choose, personally, but if the ACC doesn't completely bust apart, I currently see these as the two most likely scenarios.