Mar 2 to Mar 4 - Bubble Discussion

[jncuse]

Yes, we have very limited chance. Let's get that out of the way for the Captain Obvious' out there.

That being said the bubble has under performed all week, and that does cause the opportunity for someone to come in the back door with a couple quality wins.

SCHEDULE AND RESULTS BY RANKING - SEE POST #105


Matrix as of March 2, 2018 (only those considering Thursday games). I include anybody with an average above 9 as this indicates 2 losses to end the season could at least create some uncertainty.

Out of 64
Oklahoma 64
Arizona St 64
Florida St 64
USC 64
St Bonaventure 64
Butler 63
NC St 63
St Mary's 60
Providence 56
Baylor 55
Alabama 55
Louisville 53
Kansas St 53
Texas 43
-----------------------
Washington 23
UCLA 16
Marquette 7
Nebraska 6
Miss St 4
Utah 3
Syracuse 3
Temple 3

 

[Alsacs]

Well at least Nebraska lost to Michigan.

It’s amazing how bad the bubble is.

 

[pearl31]

Two things have emerged for me the past week or so regarding the matrix:

1. How crapilicious the bubble truly is
2. How questionable the judgement of some of these bracket contributors truly is

 

[pearl31]

Alabama, lvlle, txs, Wash in as many brackets they are is laughable

 

[EastCoast2]

Thanks for the summary - good to keep a list of our "competition" this last week. What do the numbers represent?

Obviously none of this matters if SU loses to Clemson, but a win there plus opening round ACCT keeps us alive and will cause all of us anxiety attacks for 5 days!

 

[CusefanATL]

if we win our next 3 games, we are in the tourney. sharpie.

 

[jncuse]

Alabama, lvlle, txs, Wash in as many brackets they are is laughable

I guess the question is who do you put in over those teams? The out line is very underwhelming. Who do you put in instead of Louisville right now.

I would probably put those teams in as well. But the real limitation with this ranking is you can never quantify how big the difference. A big margin doesn't necessarily imply a big lead for those teams.

But anytime I see a team at 70 or 80% they can fall fairly rapidly. I would have to go back and check but I believe we were close to 75% before our three game fall (Duke, UNC, Boston College)

 

[SoBeCuse]

Alabama, lvlle, txs, Wash in as many brackets they are is laughable

Yeah, I don’t get it. Those are good examples. Texas should lose tomorrow to WVU so that should finally seal their fate (their done already in my eyes). Don’t get Louisville at all. I mean you could argue they have the worst resume out of all four of those teams! Alabama has lost four in a row. Just since those teams have some Q1 wins early in the season shouldn’t override their performance top to bottom. Louisville hasn’t done much all year. Same with us.

 

[jncuse]

Thanks for the summary - good to keep a list of our "competition" this last week. What do the numbers represent?

Obviously none of this matters if SU loses to Clemson, but a win there plus opening round ACCT keeps us alive and will cause all of us anxiety attacks for 5 days!

It's how many people have them in their current brackets.

It is quite fluid... for some reason I overwrote my list from Monday which had a bigger Sample Size, but on Sunday I had a list where Washington had only 3 of 30.

On Monday, I seem to remember Washington was forth on the outside with about 15-20% of brackets. All they did was beat Oregon St., and now they are around 35% and the first one out.

It's fairly fluid. A bad loss, or a quality win, can add you on many brackets.

 

[jncuse]

Yeah, I don’t get it. Those are good examples. Texas should lose tomorrow to WVU so that should finally seal their fate (their done already in my eyes). Don’t get Louisville at all. I mean you could argue they have the worst resume out of all four of those teams! Alabama has lost four in a row. Just since those teams have some Q1 wins early in the season shouldn’t override their performance top to bottom. Louisville hasn’t done much all year. Same with us.

You have to find somebody. Perhaps this is finally the year that they are generous to the mid-majors if they fail in their conference tourney like Loyola, Mid Tenn St, or even a Boise St.

The P5 bubble is extremely underwhelming, but some have to get in.

 

[SoBeCuse]

You have to find somebody. Perhaps this is finally the year that they are generous to the mid-majors if they fail in their conference tourney like Loyola, Mid Tenn St, or even a Boise St.

The P5 bubble is extremely underwhelming, but some have to get in.

Could be mid-majors. I’d like to see it. Those three earned it in my mind with a loss in a Conf Tourney title game. Loyola with their injuries esepcially.

 

[jncuse]

The following example will arguably show a weakness in the matrix arguably. But I think it also shows close the margins are, and when nobody else is accomplishing much you can really jump.

This was the matrix before the Duke game that I took from another thread.

Out of 44 (Before Duke Game)
Alabama 42
Missouri 42
Florida 42
NC St 42
Kansas St 40
Providence 40
St. Mary's 39
St. Bonaventure 37
UCLA 32
Texas 31
Baylor 28
USC 27
----------
Syracuse 20
Washington 19
Louisville 11
Marquette 6
Miss St 6
Boise St 4
LSU 3
Maryland 2
Utah 2
Nebraska 2

Syracuse 45% - we then lost at Duke, vs UNC, at Boston College (we are now at 5%)

Louisville 25% - Won at Virginia Tech, lost at Virginia (now at 83%)

Overall, in a weak and a half span, Louisville beat Virginia Tech on the road, and that was it, and they shot way up. As I said tight margins.

This is why I am saying we look way out of it, but 2 good wins could really shoot us up... (No, Pitt is not that 2nd good win)

 

[jncuse]

Could be mid-majors. I’d like to see it. Those three earned it in my mind with a loss in a Conf Tourney title game. Loyola with their injuries esepcially.

I have always been a guy to want to give these teams a chance. But it seems more then ever they will give the benefit to mediocre P5 schools. I think that is what everyone is assuming, because that has been the trend.

 

[Alsacs]

I have always been a guy to want to give these teams a chance. But it seems more then ever they will give the benefit to mediocre P5 schools. I think that is what everyone is assuming, because that has been the trend.

Mid majors need to play road games.
If they play enough road games they are fine.
When they avoid the P5+BE unless they get a home/home they lose credibility.
Bonaventure should get in because the beat us.

 

[jncuse]

Mid majors need to play road games.
If they play enough road games they are fine.
When they avoid the P5+BE unless they get a home/home they lose credibility.
Bonaventure should get in because the beat us.

The new quad system should benefit them as it extends what is a good win on the road.

Loyola won at Florida as well. That may be a key result for them.

 

[Briancuse]

Well at least Nebraska lost to Michigan.

It’s amazing how bad the bubble is.

Its funny everyone says that every year. I've never heard one year in which someone said the bubble is really strong this year.

 

[jdubs30]

I think we have the biggest opportunity of any bubble team this weekend, short of a surprise conference tourney run from someone like Penn State

 

[Alsacs]

The new quad system should benefit them as it extends what is a good win on the road.

Loyola won at Florida as well. That may be a key result for them.

Loyola has a better resume than Nebraska.

 

[jncuse]

Its funny everyone says that every year. I've never heard one year in which someone said the bubble is really strong this year.

The better statement going forward might be that the 68 man field will always allow for some pretty weak and mediocre teams.

 

[MSOrange]

Penn State seems to have Ohio State's number this year. Pretty impressive win tonight

 

[jncuse]

Penn State seems to have Ohio State's number this year. Pretty impressive win tonight

I still don't think they have done enough, but a win tomorrow would make their resume worthy of consideration for those final spots.

 

[MSOrange]

I still don't think they have done enough, but a win tomorrow would make their resume worthy of consideration for those final spots.

That's how I feel also. Still wish the Buckeyes would have taken care of business tonight though and knocked them out.

 

[orangenirvana]

Watching VaTech @ Miami. Miami plays in a morgue. Such a weird crowd. Can't see or hear students. Just a bunch of retired spectators quietly observing the play on the court.

 

[Alsacs]

Watching VaTech @ Miami. Miami plays in a morgue. Such a weird crowd. Can't see or hear students. Just a bunch of retired spectators quietly observing the play on the court.

The Miami Heat had LeBron James in his prime and had a hard time filling up their arena.
The U is a private school in Miami their fanbase can’t be that large.
They can get bandwagoners for football but not college basketball which is an awful product compared to the NBA.

 

[EastCoast2]

The Miami Heat had LeBron James in his prime and had a hard time filling up their arena.
The U is a private school in Miami their fanbase can’t be that large.
They can get bandwagoners for football but not college basketball which is an awful product compared to the NBA.

With their football program on the rise and the Dolphins in mediocre purgatory, the U will grow their football fan base again, but basketball will always be an afterthought. They could be 30-0 and ranked #1 and that arena would be 35% capacity.