My Tourney Projection (Season Thread)

[jncuse]

I will be using this thread for my tourney projections throughout the year:

A few notes on how I make my projection:
1) I take the projected season records from rpiforecast.com
http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

Those records are based on taking what you have done to date, converting it to a power rating, and projecting the rest of your results.

2) I select 68 teams based on that data and metrics, based on my best understanding of what the committee considers in the past.

3) Why do I use this approach?

- I don't like an "As of Now" approach until much later in the season. The conference you play in and the opportunities you will have going forward are extremely important. A team in the AAC may have a bubble resume as of now, but they are not going to get the same opportunities as a PAC-12 team.
- It's easier to sort through 31 game data, rather then 15-17 game data much of what is littered with a high % of cupcakes.

The inherent weakness is the strength of the power rating -- some will improve, some will slide -- but that is no different than taking records as of now.

NOTE Syracuse is projected to go 6-12 and have an RPI of 96 as of now. That is no fun. Part of the reason I am doing this is projecting what Syracuse may need to get in the tourney.

So for the time being I am assuming Syracuse gets to 9-9 (don't ask me how). Based on the 9-9 record, and assuming the extra 3 wins come from one top 50 team, one 51-100 team, and one sub 100 team:
19-12
RPI = 52 (Per RPI Wizard on that web site)
4-7 top 50
8-10 vs top 100
2 bad losses (sub 100 RPI)

Projection as of January 14th will be in my next post.

 

[jncuse]

Most weeks I am not going to seed teams. Or provide the teams for one bid leagues. But I will update the bubble picture.

68 Teams
- 19 one bid leagues
- 3 other one big leagues with current potential bubble busters (Valparaiso, Boise St, Monmouth)
- 46 teams from multi bid leagues

42 Teams Above the current bubble line
PAC (6) - USC, Oregon, Arizona, California, Utah, Colorado
ACC (6) - Virginia, Duke, Louisville, UNC, Miami, Pitt
Big 10 (6) - Michigan St, Purdue, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Indiana
Big 12 (5) - Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa St, Baylor
SEC (5) - Texas AM, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, South Carolina
Big East (4) - Villanova, Xavier, Providence, Butler
A-1o (4) - Dayton, George Washington, VCU, St. Joes
AAC (3) - SMU, Cincy, Uconn
WCC (2) - St. Mary's, Gonzaga
MVC (1) - Wichita St

That leaves 12 spots for 4 teams (The Current Bubble based on the RPI Forecast Data) - note the Pac 12 influence. 10 of the 12 teams would be contenders for a spot right now:
Texas Tech
Texas
Arizona St
UCLA
Oregon St
Washington
Notre Dame
Syracuse (9-9 Version)
Seton Hall
St Bonaventure
Evansville
BYU

Based on those I would probably select the following 4 out of 12 :
Texas (even at 16-15)
Syracuse (9-9 version)
UCLA
Arizona St

Last 4 Out: BYU, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Oregon St

 

[jncuse]

Clemson is projected at 10-8 in the ACC, and would still have an RPI of 118. They had a really bad OOC -- really bad. Their "best" win in terms of projceted RPI was Texas Southern at #218!!! They had 3 bad losses (At Minnesota (226), UMass (166), and at Home vs Alabama)

At 12-6 in the ACC, Clemson would have a projected RPI of 83. That would be the one of the toughest resumes every for the committee to digest from a body of work perspective:
- Quality Wins
- Bad Losses
- Poor OOC Schedule
- Lowest RPI for an at-large

They dug themsevles one heck of a hole;

 

[pearl31]

Wow, thanks for the hard work on this jncuse - very intriguing.
At a glance I would wager that several of those teams you have as "above the bubble" will not be by the time March rolls around, and some won't even be on the bubble - Colorado, Mich, Florida, vandy, vcu, st. joes - all come to mind.

I do agree, though, that SU needs to scratch and claw to 9-9 (ideally picking up a "big" win or two in the process) and then win at least 1 but probably 2 in the ACCT to sneak into the dance.
tis going to be a very interesting couple of months

 

[jncuse]

I will be updating the teams in and out later this week. And I still expect 9-9 to be the sweet spot when I update things later.

But the interesting thing was that last week Syracuse was projected to go 6-12, and I had to make up a resume as if Syracuse was 9-9. They have yet to reload the data but I am fairly sure that Syracuse will now be projected at 9-9, given their quickly improving power ranking from thrashing a decent team on the road and beating a quality team on the road.

Last week was about how will we turn it around to possibby get to 9-9. Now based on how we have played, that is our expected result.

And I still expect 9-9 to be the sweet spot when I update things later.

 

[jncuse]

3 interesting games tonight from a bubble perspective:

1. Clemson at Virginia - Clemson will have the dirtiest OOC resume for any team ever getting into the bubble if they perform well in the ACC. Personally I would like to see them get to 12-6 in ACC and then see the debate that would ensue. I guess as an SU fan you want to see them get to 10-8 so it does not seem like a bad loss, but also not have them in consideration for a spot.

2. Dayton at St. Bonaventure - A must win for the Bonnies (getting a quality opponent) at home.

3. Butler at Providence - Providence has not been playing well to start the Big East season. A third home loss in Big East Play would not be good, and given their current KP rating may indicate that they are a team on a serious decline. They are obviously very safe as of now, but they are a team that may fall.

 

[jncuse]

Points from last night
- Bonnies blew it. They don't get many chances of top 50 wins at home.
- Providence did what it had to do and won
- Clemson gave Virginia a real good test. Seems like they can definetely get to 11-7 in this league
- Hoyas win at Xavier. They should be off the sub 100 RPI radar now. On track for a 17-14 record, and #58 RPI.

2 key games for tonight that are bubble relevant:

Vanderbilt (-2.5) at Tennessee - Vandy is 10-7. Look good on paper, KP #30, but at some point you need to win games. This is one of those road games against a non tourney team that a bubble team must have.

Villanova (-7) at Seton Hall - A top 25 win opportunity at home for the Hall. You only get a few chances a year at home in these types of games. Not that this thread is about betting but I would consider the Hall with the Money Line

UCLA at (-3) Oregon St - Is Oregon St the first of the middle of the pack teams to start a sharp ascent after the tripping incident. It would be nice for the Pac-10 to start spreading out, so there are bottom feeders to cheer for down the stretch.

 

[pearl31]

Points from last night
- Bonnies blew it. They don't get many chances of top 50 wins at home.
- Providence did what it had to do and won
- Clemson gave Virginia a real good test. Seems like they can definetely get to 11-7 in this league
- Hoyas win at Xavier. They should be off the sub 100 RPI radar now. On track for a 17-14 record, and #58 RPI.

2 key games for tonight that are bubble relevant:

Vanderbilt (-2.5) at Tennessee - Vandy is 10-7. Look good on paper, KP #30, but at some point you need to win games. This is one of those road games against a non tourney team that a bubble team must have.

Villanova (-7) at Seton Hall - A top 25 win opportunity at home for the Hall. You only get a few chances a year at home in these types of games. Not that this thread is about betting but I would consider the Hall with the Money Line

UCLA at (-3) Oregon St - Is Oregon St the first of the middle of the pack teams to start a sharp ascent after the tripping incident. It would be nice for the Pac-10 to start spreading out, so there are bottom feeders to cheer for down the stretch.

Bonnies were down 45-18 at half, scored 61 in the 2nd half and almost came all the way back - but yeah they did blow it by not showing up for the 1st half...
I feel like ucla/org st is kind of a wash - either team will still be in good position with a win and either team will start looking real precarious with an L

 

[jncuse]

Bonnies were down 45-18 at half, scored 61 in the 2nd half and almost came all the way back - but yeah they did blow it by not showing up for the 1st half...
I feel like ucla/org st is kind of a wash - either team will still be in good position with a win and either team will start looking real precarious with an L

Your probably right on the P-12 game. I was trying to come up with 3 games to watch for teams around the line, and I tend not to pick road teams at top 25 schools because it never happens (Except for this year!!)

 

[jncuse]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

So let's take a look at where we are at now. Since we have now beaten Duke and Wake, I am now going to evaluate us on our projected record. There was no point using 6-12.

1) Currently we are still only projected at 8-10 although very close to 9 (27% chance at 8, 25% chance at 9).

So Current Projected Resume
18-13
ACC - 8-10
RPI 66
Top 50 - 4-8
Top 100: 7-11
2 bad losses
(I realized the losses don't cross add, so I added one to the top 50)

2) There are 22 likely one conference teams (I am including the Colonial). That leaves 46 spots for multi bid leagues. Syracuse is currently 54 in RPI amongst such teams vying for the 46 spots.

Relating to those 53 teams above us, Syracuse has a better resume than:

Stanford
Boise St
Seton Hall
Evansville
Tulsa

Questionable if better:
UCLA
Texas
Gonzaga

Below #66 in RPI teams with arguably similar resumes:
Georgetown
Arizona St
Washignton
Creighton

Conclusion: So even with a projected record of 8-10, we are sitting somewhere between the 3rd last team out - 6th last team out. I still believe 9-9 in ACC (with first round win) is the target number for having a fairly decent chance.

 

[jncuse]

It was interesting to note that Valparaiso and Monmouth both had bad losses last week which is good for us. Those are probably the two teams best positioned as bid stealers right now from low major conferences.

 

[pearl31]

It was interesting to note that Valparaiso and Monmouth both had bad losses last week which is good for us. Those are probably the two teams best positioned as bid stealers right now from low major conferences.

yeah, hopefully the Valpos and Monmouths of the world win their conf tourneys like they're supposed to