New Bracketology out

[djcon57]

And there is decent chances that you will not even be playing your "likely" seed opponent by round 3 as this thing could get whacky.

Yep...remember how "lucky" we were when we got to play Dayton a couple years back?
Or how Indiana has an amazing reg season and gets stuck with us as a 4 in the Sweet 16 and is completely overwhlemed.

Unless you're battling for a Top 3 seed where you basically get a 1st round bye, everything else is pretty relative.

 

[Knicks411]

A&M is the only win we have that's better than that.

If you go strictly by KP, Duke is ranked slightly higher than Kentucky. But then throw in the location of the game and I don't think it's close. UConn is about 10 spots behind Kentucky, but again, I think neutral site makes up the difference.

Pomeroy wrote a little about this a few weeks ago
"It turns out those adjustments are important. Beating the 90th-ranked team on the road is about as difficult as beating the 50th-best team on a neutral floor, which is roughly as difficult as beating the 20th-best team on one’s home floor."

Kentucky is ranked around 20 in KP, so according to his research, that win is roughly the same as winning at Boise State or something. Do I think that is a perfect way of looking at things? Not necessarily, but I think we have 3 wins better than home Kentucky this year.

 

[RaleighSUfan]

I find it hard to believe that there are approximately 40 better teams than Syracuse right now (based upon seedings). With a 12 seed or even a 10 seed, it's clear that the absence of Coach Boeheim for the 9 games isn't being factored in. With Boeheim, the team has lost 3 close games, Wiscy (home) in OT, UNC (home) - 3 point game with 3 minutes to play and Virginia (away) - 3 point game with 2 minutes to play. It also includes wins over Texas A&M (neutral), UConn (neutral), Duke (away) and Notre Dame (home).

The effort with Boeheim back is night and day vs. when he was out, IMO.

 

[creatorsgam]

Didn't you know, LSU has Ben Simmons! That's right, the next coming of LeBron, Michael and Larry all rolled into one. That makes LSU a great team, regardless of who they have beaten...or who they've lost to.

Get your ESPN kool-aid on tap here, folks!

 

[pfister1]

This is a projection with 8 regular season and conference tournament still to go. It makes no attempt to project what teams are going to do over the remainder of the season. What Lunardi projects now is fun, but is not reality. We are playing better now than we were during the suspension. It should mean that we will win at a better clip and build a better resume than what we currently have.

 

[SUOrangeSU]

i wouldn't want to be anywhere near UK in a bracket...even though they are under performing, that talent can "click" at any time...no thanks

 

[dasher]

A&M is the only win we have that's better than that.

a win at Duke isn't better than a win against kentucky at home?

 

[shandeezy7]

It's an interesting situation, does the NCAA take into consideration Boeheim's absence? I'd feel better about that if it wasn't that "august body" that sat him down to begin with.

I'm not sure how much the committee is going to take into account Boeheim's absence, but I am 100% sure that they will take into account Ben Simmons' star power, which is why I want them nowhere near the bubble (unless we are definitely off the bubble).

 

[andyw715]

I find it hard to believe that there are approximately 40 better teams than Syracuse right now (based upon seedings). With a 12 seed or even a 10 seed, it's clear that the absence of Coach Boeheim for the 9 games isn't being factored in. With Boeheim, the team has lost 3 close games, Wiscy (home) in OT, UNC (home) - 3 point game with 3 minutes to play and Virginia (away) - 3 point game with 2 minutes to play. It also includes wins over Texas A&M (neutral), UConn (neutral), Duke (away) and Notre Dame (home).

The effort with Boeheim back is night and day vs. when he was out, IMO.

Just a question regarding "close loss". Does that play a factor?

The committee looks at the resume, do they say, yep they have 3 losses to good teams (a "good" loss) but they were close to being tied within minutes of the end of the game? So that's better than a "good loss", its an "almost win"? As a cuse fan, I say it's an almost win, much like when talking about the Bills and we always say, "Yeah it was a loss, but we came back!"

Or is it just the W or L that matters?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I'll still see Lunardi in Hell.

 

[jncuse]

This is a projection with 8 regular season and conference tournament still to go. It makes no attempt to project what teams are going to do over the remainder of the season. What Lunardi projects now is fun, but is not reality. We are playing better now than we were during the suspension. It should mean that we will win at a better clip and build a better resume than what we currently have.

The first two comments you made seem quite contradictory.

It is actually not a projection. Lunardi makes it clear that his seedings are based on what teams have actually done to date -- standard "As of Now" approach. And if that is the case LSU has no business in the bracket.

 

[Cusefan0307]

The first two comments you made seem quite contradictory.

It is actually not a projection. Lunardi makes it clear that his seedings are based on what teams have actually done to date -- standard "As of Now" approach. And if that is the case LSU has no business in the bracket.

No Doubt ESPN is hyping LSU because they see future $$$$ in Ben Simmons.

 

[jncuse]

Just a question regarding "close loss". Does that play a factor?

The committee looks at the resume, do they say, yep they have 3 losses to good teams (a "good" loss) but they were close to being tied within minutes of the end of the game? So that's better than a "good loss", its an "almost win"? As a cuse fan, I say it's an almost win, much like when talking about the Bills and we always say, "Yeah it was a loss, but we came back!"

Or is it just the W or L that matters?

In the top lines they are certainly not dissecting to that detail.

I tend to think they mainly just look at W and L's, since there are so many close games in basketball, but I am not sure... perhaps near the bubble line when they are debating 2 teams they can really dissect.

I have certainly heard the term "quality losses" used, but I believe it to be more in the context of opposition strength rather than margin... Something like "While this team also lost 4 games out of conference, the quality of those losses were strong". OOC SOS numbers are often deceiving, so the caliber of losses on subjective review can be viewed as positive.

 

[Alsacs]

Remember I said last week about LSU. Lunardi just throws crap against a wall till the last week and then looks at Jerry Palm and makes adjustments.

LSU is a tournament team when you look at their roster but they don't have the resume right now to be a tournament team. They could get in but they got 3 games coming up @ Kentucky, Texas A&M, @South Carolina they need to win atleast 2 of them to be in.

Our resume is so much better than theirs right now its laughable. LSU has several bad losses like the one we had to St. John's. They got nothing banked from the non-conference they lost to both Marquette and NC State in Brooklyn.

Palm has Syracuse as a 10 seed. I think we are closer to an 8 seed right now than we are of being in the last 4.

The bottom of the bubble is really weak. I mean Lunardi has UConn in without being in the last 4. We have a better resume than they do.

 

[BlackSquirrels]

My take on Lunardi's bracket is that it's a cakewalk to the Final Four.

As for Palm's bracket, Sign. Me. Up. RIGHT. NOW!!! (Although Monmouth could be trouble in the Elite 8.)

 

[Briancuse]

Lunardi is a moron, he isn taking Jb missing 9 games into account. There is no way we would be a 12 seed right now.

 

[orangecuse]

I'd take that projected 10 seed in a heartbeat. Would prefer that much more than being an 8 or 9 seed and having to face a number 1 seed in the second round, if we were fortunate enough to advance. That 8 vs. 9 is always a toss up, and favor the 10 vs. 7 seed match up much better.

 

[SUGIANT]

If they get in I'll be happy, that's really all that matters. If the win from there, that's gravy

 

[Brian Orange]

Can 100% seeing them putting us in the First Four. Huge, name team, big draw.

 

[jncuse]

No Doubt ESPN is hyping LSU because they see future $$$$ in Ben Simmons.

I am sure ESPN does -- they see the value in Ben Simmons not only in the future but right now as well. But I am not sure if that will matter much to the committee.

I have observed from the selections in recent years, that while they favour power conference teams over mid-majors, they don't necessarily favour elite P5 school vs non brand P5 school.

The system favours power conference schools because the key metrics are biased to selecting them (intentionally or not).

The one exception, as usual, is that Duke will get something favourable done for them.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I am sure they do -- they see the value in Ben Simmons not in the future but right now as well.

One thing I have observed from the selections in recent years, is that while they favour power conference teams over mid-majors, they don't necessarily favour elite P5 school vs non brand P5 school.

The system favours power conference schools because the key metrics are biased to selecting them (intentionally or not). But I don't see them picking Kentucky over a smaller P5 school, if smaller P5 school has the better. resume.

The one exception, as usual, is that Duke will get something favourable done for them.

Duke could end up being an 11 seed and somehow they still get to play in North Carolina.

Bracketology is interesting. Wish Syracuse.com kept Patrick Stevens. He was one of the most accurate of the bunch.

 

[MSOrange]

Duke could end up being an 11 seed and somehow they still get to play in North Carolina.

Bracketology is interesting. Wish Syracuse.com kept Patrick Stevens. He was one of the most accurate of the bunch.

I thought Patrick Stevens was awesome also.

 

[jdubs30]

Remember I said last week about LSU. Lunardi just throws crap against a wall till the last week and then looks at Jerry Palm and makes adjustments.

LSU is a tournament team when you look at their roster but they don't have the resume right now to be a tournament team. They could get in but they got 3 games coming up @ Kentucky, Texas A&M, @South Carolina they need to win atleast 2 of them to be in.

Our resume is so much better than theirs right now its laughable. LSU has several bad losses like the one we had to St. John's. They got nothing banked from the non-conference they lost to both Marquette and NC State in Brooklyn.

Palm has Syracuse as a 10 seed. I think we are closer to an 8 seed right now than we are of being in the last 4.

The bottom of the bubble is really weak. I mean Lunardi has UConn in without being in the last 4. We have a better resume than they do.

Agreed -- our resume seems to match up very well with UConn and they seem to be ahead of us everywhere.

The lost to St.John's is a killer. I honestly think that loss hurts more than say, a win against Wisconsin, would have helped.

 

[Headmaster 9]

I agree. I'd hate to be a play-in 12th seed. They will probably have us play the game LA and then fly back to the East with one day in between to play the first game.

All first four games are in Dayton...don't want to have to 'play in' but would be better than sitting out.

 

[Headmaster 9]

Duke could end up being an 11 seed and somehow they still get to play in North Carolina.

Bracketology is interesting. Wish Syracuse.com kept Patrick Stevens. He was one of the most accurate of the bunch.

DUKE could be a 16 seed and play in NC