Objective Quadrant Analysis

[bpo57]

A team's individual RPI is irrelevant.

Loyola has no chance if they don't win their conference tourney.

I would rather the committee just rely on the data. Otherwise bias is an overwhelming factor in their decision-making.

No chance is extreme. If they lose in their conference final they will have gone 26-3 with their starting PG (likely MVC POY) in the lineup.

 

[bpo57]

A team's individual RPI is irrelevant.

Loyola has no chance if they don't win their conference tourney.

I would rather the committee just rely on the data. Otherwise bias is an overwhelming factor in their decision-making.

Think of the logic behind that statement. Individual RPIs are irrelevant. Yet how are conference RPIs calculated?

 

[orangenirvana]

Think of the logic behind that statement. Individual RPIs are irrelevant. Yet how are conference RPIs calculated?

You're preaching to the choir. I wrote this last week...

 

[Knicks411]

You're preaching to the choir. I wrote this last week...

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That's funny too, our best wins look better against the computers than the RPI; but we have a better RPI than advanced metrics.

 

[Consigliere]

Didn't think I would bother with another update after Wednesday night but Saturday changed everything. Certainly unscientific but this shows how tight the bubble really is - 5 teams around the cut line within 1 point! Probably should be using Bracket Matrix instead of Lunardi's columns to identify and rank the 16 teams but I started with ESPN so I'll stick there. Live and learn.

I struggle to make the case for Providence getting a bye. Two elite home wins but their overall record is the same as ours and they have 3 terrible losses. And best road win is at Marqueete with the only other Top 100 road win @ St. John's who was nowhere near Top 100 at the time.

Struggle a bit with Baylor, too even with no bad losses. A 17-13 record with one strong home win against Kansas seems a bit overvalued.

And I get the injury factor, but how is Notre Dame even in the discussion at this point? If they get in and we don't that last play turnover might end up being among the most impactful 4 seconds in recent history.

 

[orangenirvana]

Providence is a joke. Any team that has as many Q4 losses as Q1 wins shouldn't even be considered for an at-large bid. I don't get it.

 

[djorange1989]

I understand having us out right now, we have very few Q1 and Q2 wins. But a dope like Lunardi putting Louisville ahead of us, just to name one team, is insane. They have no big wins, we beat them on their floor and they have only 4 total wins in Q1 and 2 combined. Maybe high school recruits weren't the only ones getting treated to sex parties by Pitino and crew , Joe?

 

[Consigliere]

Penn State is another one getting some late love due to a couple of wins last week. Half their wins are Q4!

 

[Consigliere]

Figured I would take one more run at this before tomorrow night's announcement. I added one more category of teams based on some other threads and Championship Week developments - Other Teams Discussed. Most of these are either safely in or comfortably out but thought it would be curious to look at their metrics. Based on this, the teams below will likely take 12 spots in the bracket. From a purely quantitative perspective we stand at 13 - 1 point out. Nothing all that surprising, but validates where we feel we are I think. St. Mary's will be a bif key. If the committee discounts the strength of their resume it may open up another spot. Louisville and Notre Dame love still amazes me.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Yes out of all these teams being considered the UL and ND love is just bizarre. Makes no sense.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Figured I would take one more run at this before tomorrow night's announcement. I added one more category of teams based on some other threads and Championship Week developments - Other Teams Discussed. Most of these are either safely in or comfortably out but thought it would be curious to look at their metrics. Based on this, the teams below will likely take 12 spots in the bracket. From a purely quantitative perspective we stand at 13 - 1 point out. Nothing all that surprising, but validates where we feel we are I think. St. Mary's will be a bif key. If the committee discounts the strength of their resume it may open up another spot. Louisville and Notre Dame love still amazes me.
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Solid stuff. How I am seeing things as well.

 

[tbonezone]

i predict quadrants will either be dropped , modified or ignored altogether.

 

[HakAttack]

i predict quadrants will either be dropped , modified or ignored altogether.

If that’s the case then we’re not in.

 

[Consigliere]

i predict quadrants will either be dropped , modified or ignored altogether.

I predict that as the shiny new toy the committee will heavily discuss quadrant profiles and justify their decisions based on that.

 

[OrangeZeus]

Of the 16 team's on Lunardi's bubble today, Syracuse has the 5th highest RPI, 2nd highest SOS, and 2nd highest NON-CONF SOS. The one drawback appears to be the 2 sub-150 losses to GT and WF. The only other bubble team with 2 sub-150 losses is Penn State.

Louisville should absolutely not be ahead of us, whether that's in the NCAA or NIT. We beat them on their court, and are right behind them in RPI and SOS. Our NON-CONF SOS is significantly better and we have 4 top 50 wins, whereas Louisville has none (they did beat FSU twice who is now at 52).

As for Notre Dame, their resume is comparable to Marquette. Marquette went 19-13 with RPI 55, SOS 30, and NON-CONF SOS 149. ND went 19-14 with RPI 65, SOS 44, and NON-CONF SOS 174. Marquette dominates ND along these 3 metrics, however, ND does have one top 25 win against Wichita St. propping them up. If the committee wants to put them in over us because they beat us on our court without Bonzie, so be it, but as a whole body of work I think we have them beat by a wide margin. While head-to-head should play a factor, I don't think their one win over us compensates for their RPI being behind ours by 25, their SOS being behind ours by 31, and their NON-CONF SOS being behind ours by 161.

I don't think Marquette, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Baylor, or Penn State should be considered over us from Lunardi's 16 bubble teams. The final four spots should go to four out of Texas, Oklahoma, Syracuse, Middle Tennessee, Saint Mary's, and Arizona St. in my opinion. I personally wouldn't even consider Saint Mary's based off their resume with 24 wins against opponents RPI 113+, but it's hard keeping a 28-5 team out of the tourney.

 

[tbonezone]

not necessarily. i just think the committee members will see the inherent flaws in this current quadrant analysis and move to further refine it in the future. there's a good idea in there somewhere but this version was rushed to market too soon.

 

[SWC75]

Thrilled to get win number 17 yesterday. Got to be honest - I've feared at a few points this season that our streak of 48 straight winning seasons (second in D1 history only to UCLA's 54)was in jeopardy. Yesterday's win clinches number 49.

This year was the 48 consecutive winning season. Next year would be #49.