RF2044
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So, bccubs's post disputing the lack of talent made me start thinking about our current roster, and the short term / long term prognosis at a couple of key positions that have been trouble spots this year. Here's the breakdown, as I see it, position by position; I'm curious to see what others think, or if they see things differently in terms of each unit's short / long term potential, given what the new staff has in the recruiting pipeline:
Quarterback: Eric Dungey is a potential stud who has already taken too much punishment in week 3. His arm looks a little tired, and he's made some bad throws in recent games that are partially attributable to how quickly the pocket is breaking down around him. When he has time to throw, he's shown nice accuracy, and appears to be a very strong fit for Babers's system. Even when he's not playing exceptionally well, he's putting up numbers that we would have killed for in recent years in what is essentially a "C" game for him. Also important to keep in mind that he's a true sophomore who missed significant developmental time last year, is learning his second system in two years, and is only in game 3 of figuring things out. Mahoney seems to have improved his accuracy, and gives us a quality backup with actual game experience, that enabled us to redshirt our true frosh QB. Culpepper arrived in January and participated in spring practice, and now isn't being rushed onto the field. Devito blew up after we offered him. With Dungey in the fold for two more years, and those two waiting in the wings, the future looks bright at QB [finally]. And once we start putting up video game numbers in Baber's system, we should have no shortage of QB prospects who want to come play here down the road.
Short term potential: Good, provided Dungey can remain upright
Long term potential: Strong
Running Back: I like the raw materials in the pipeline, but we really need at least one bigger back [Jo-El Shaw would have helped address this issue]. Fredricks was terrific last year, but struggled this offseason to remain in shape and is now the platoon back. Strickland [on paper] seems like a better fit for how the coaching staff envisions using the RB position, but he's been inconsistent so far this season. The play of the OL is undoubtedly holding this unit back a bit. We have both of these guys back for two more full years after this one. Moe Neal has primarily played backup running back, but looks tailor made for the same role Ervin Philips is playing now. Stritzinger arrives next year with an impressive offer list and a chance to carve out a niche / bolster depth. Did I mentioned that we need a bigger back in the fold?
Short term potential: Hopefully, the USF game was a sign that the running game is starting to click
Long term potential: Solid
Wide Receiver: Amba Etta-Tawo has been a freaking godsend. And Philips has smoothly transitioned to WR after playing a hybrid role the previous two years. Those two make our offense dynamic and potentially explosive. Estime isn't in as prominent of a role, but still a big play threat as evidenced by his TD catch against USF. Interestingly, Ishmael has been in more of a complimentary role this season. Custis and Enoicy probably won't see much time, and probably never will at this point as the coaching staff bring in their own players. Neither Butler nor Riley have factored in much, but are gaining valuable experience and will figure to step into more prominent roles next year. Butler in particular brings an intriguing blend of size / athleticism to the position. Scoop Bradshaw moved here during camp, and probably won't see much time [if any] this year, but could make a splash down the road]. And we're adding a ton of WR talent to the fold next year that on paper appears to enhance the position's speed, size, and playmaking. Nykeim Johnson is small but elusive, Sharod Johnson is kicking a$$ at a big time program in Florida, and Cameron Jordan / Josh Palmer bring some much needed size to the position. Remains to be seen whether Thompson-Bishop ends up here on in the secondary. He's got the athleticism to excel at either spot.
Short term potential: Etta-Tawo and Philips have impressed, and the depth here is quality
Long term potential: Need to replace Etta-Tawo's deep threat next year, but the future looks bright
Tight End: Not much to get excited about here. Paris has battled injuries and can't get on the field. Moore has also battled injuries. Legacy Georgetown transfer MacPherson is a stop gap, but not a difference maker. Clark [who ended up at Pitt] would have been a perfect fit for this offense. Things are so dire at TE, that the staff moved Kenneth Ruff [who'd spent the offseason at LB and DE] to TE, just to bolster the unit. Whether he remains there long term remains to be seen. Unbelievably, next season, things might actually be WORSE at this positional unit. A true frosh could contend for a starting position next year, which generally isn't a formula for success. For next year, we have Aaron Hackett lined up to commit, but he'll need to mature a bit physically to handle the full set of responsibilities [6-3 225 right now]. The staff may have backed off of Charles Reeves due to academic concerns, who has the physical tools to play right away. What happens with him is up in the air. The staff will need to add at least one more prospect here to just fill in the depth chart, given what we'll lose this offseason.
Short term potential: Won't get much production from this group this season
Long term potential: Might need to look down the road for this position to be optimized. Hopefully, the way Babers utilizes TEs in his offense will be attractive to prospective recruits so we can beef up at this position of need
Offensive Line: The OL has struggled this year [really, the past two years]. We don't seem to hold up at the line of attack in terms of opening holes for the running game OR in pass protection – a bad combo. RT has been a sieve. But we do have a couple of solid pieces of the puzzle. Byrne shifting in to a starting role is intriguing, because he figures to improve the run blocking potential of this unit, and starting a sophomore [Conway] at LT bodes well for the next two years. The question is: are the redshirt frosh better than some of the incumbents? Babers has put together back-to-back solid classes of prospects at OL [which seems like a perpetual trouble spot for SU]. We need time for the true frosh Babers brought in [who are all tall but undersized and need to fill out] to get to their eventual playing weights. Once they do, I think the raw materials will be there for better performance than what we've had the past few years. Until then, I think the OL struggles will continue. Incoming recruits Patrick Davis / Dakota Davis are BIG boys who will help stock the pipeline.
Short term potential: The OL has been the major trouble spot on offense, and doesn't figure to get better this year
Long term potential: Figures to improve in another year or two
Defensive Tackle: The strength of a much-maligned defense is undoubtedly at DT, where we have three players who are all capable of starting in Kayton Samuels, Steve Clark, and Chris Slayton [who's been forced to play out of position at DE—more on this below]—three sophomores. This group's best football is ahead of them, and they will form the foundation of what will hopefully be an improved defense once the team gets acclimated to the Tampa 2 and other positional units around them improve. Behind them, Tyler Cross and Anthony Guidice provide depth, and tall but slightly undersized McKinley Williams figures to make a splash down the road as he adds size and gets immersed in a collegiate strength and conditioning program. The staff is bringing in a big DT prospect in Curtis Harper who was reportedly the staff's top choice at DT. If they can get anything from Cross / Guidice / Williams, this group appears to be well stocked for the long term.
Short term potential: Good, and will only improve over time
Long term potential: Strong for the next couple of years, especially if the staff continues to add prospects like Williams / Harper
Defensive End: The DE position is a confusing in that this group epitomizes the futility of the defense's struggles this year AND offers reasons for optimism down the road. Depleted by the defection of the unit's best player, Ron Thompson [who tossed his ring into NFL draft contention this past offseason], the Orange returned no players who were part of last year's rotation, and no players who'd even played a snap in their collegiate careers. The Orange seemed to have landed a player who would have bolstered the unit in FCS transfer Gabe Sherrod, but the coaching staff pulled his scholarship over his continued flirtations with Michigan State. In his place, they brought in 5th year transfer De'jon Wilson, who didn't play much at Colorado. He's more of a depth guy than an impact player. The situation is so dire that the staff moved Slayton outside to DE from his more natural position at DT in an attempt to get the "best" DL on the field together. This move was necessary because the rest of the unit is manned by frosh—including 3 true frosh. Jake Pickard had offers from Wisconsin and Michigan, and is being counted on to produce. He was injured at the end of preseason camp, and just now getting his sea legs back. The trio of true frosh [Black, Nelson, and Coleman] aren't ready for prime time yet, but in two years, this unit—which is a liability this season—could end up turning into a position of strength. Right now, they're a little behind the curve. The staff has already lined up Zach Morton [from an impressive high school program in Detroit] to bolster the unit down the road.
Short term potential: This group doesn't seem like it will generate much pass rush this year, or make too many plays behind the line of scrimmage. They also struggle to contain, which is as much about the new system / general inexperience as anything
Long term potential: Nelson had impressive offers coming out of HS. Ditto Pickard. And I like the potential of Black / Coleman [who has actually garnered the most PT of the frosh, and earned a starting role]. With a year or two under their belts, this group could develop, but it is going to take time. The lack of depth at this position forced all three incoming frosh onto the field, which is unfortunate. Hopefully that won't be an issue moving forward, as we should be able to field a nice rotation with these four over the next couple of years.
Linebacker: Last year, Franklin and Bennett were the rocks of the defense, displaying speed, instincts and playmaking. This year, they are still the unit's best players, but look to be a half-step slower due to the new system. Make no mistake: I love these two, and they both could / should improve once they get more familiar with their new responsibilities. Both of these guys [Franklin in particular] struggle to cover, which is a problem for a MLB in the Tampa 2, and both are a bit undersized for the new system. The third position is less settled, with Jonathan Thomas [who is even more undersized] manning the WILL. Similarly small Ted Taylor backs him up, with Marquez Hodge [former starter] backing up the other two spots. Shyheim Cullen is emerging as a special teams ace, but hasn't gotten much PT otherwise. The group hasn't gotten any contributions from Alryk Perry or any of the other remaining LBs. The main issues with this unit stem from the group being the types of players that the old staff coveted—smaller and faster—while the new coaching staff needs bigger LBs that will hold up better against the run and also drop into coverage to take away the middle of the field. Fortunately, help is on the way. Last year, Babers brought in two LB prospects [Andrew Armstrong and Tim Walton] who are bigger [both 6-2] than the current group of starters [who are all in the 6-0 range]. And the staff has lined up a trio of LB prospects, including the highly rated Nadarius Fagan [6-2 195], Kadeem Trotter [6-3 196], and Tyrell Richards [6-2 220]. While the former two need to add sand to the bucket, the bigger frames should make them better equipped to handle the responsibilities of LBs in the Tampa 2.
Short term potential: Solid—Franklin and Bennett are a nice nucleus, even if undersized, and should help bridge the gap until the newer players grow into their frames.
Long term potential: The newcomers [including Walton / Armstrong] should be able to get into the 235+ range without sacrificing speed, which is in marked contrast to the size of the current group. It will be interesting to see if a prospect like Fagan contends for a starting role next year, or whether he'll need a year in the S&C program to crack the lineup.
Cornerback: Scary is the word that comes to mind when discussing the depth constraints we're facing at this position. No positional group had a more maligned off-season than the secondary, which had two players get stabbed, two others who weren't admitted to school, and a host of injuries to deal with IN ADDITION to learning a new system. Cory Winfield has been the best CB on the team last season and this year, but the lack of pass rush up front has exposed this group in coverage. Juwan Dowels, the other starter, was lost for the season with a broken arm. Cordell Hudson [RS] has stepped in and has struggled a bit. The depth situation is so poor that true frosh Carl Jones has been rushed onto the two deep. He'll take his lumps this year, but will be better for it down the road, and he has the requisite size [6-2] for the Tampa 2. The group could really use Wayne Morgan [who has struggled his entire career with technique] back, as he brings much needed depth / size to the position. Fellow frosh Scoop Bradshaw was shifted from CB to WR in camp, so there isn't much else in reserve—especially since JUCO transfer Michael Moore [6-3] did not meet eligibility requirements. He would have played a LOT.
Short term potential: This year is going to be rough. Injuries have really hurt this unit, as has the lack of pass rush
Long term potential: See "Safeties," below
Safeties: As with the CBs, this group has also been decimated by injuries. The key performers are also undersized. The team's best S, Antwan Cordy, plays SS despite being 5-8 175. He was last year's top performer in the secondary, but a broken arm in game 2 will have him on the sidelines the rest of the year. His replacement, Daivon Ellison, is a playmaker but also undersized [5-8 177]. The size differential has been both exaggerated and prominently noticeable against our last two opponents, Louisville and USF, where we often had 5-9 or shorter guys attempting to cover 6-4 wideouts. Rodney Williams, a part time starter last year, returns to the lineup after an off-season of injuries. He brings a little more height, but not much heft [186 pounds]. Chauncey Scissum [another part time starter] hasn't played as a function of injuries sustained during an off-season stabbing, but is the biggest player in the group. Redshirt frosh Christopher Frederick hasn't played much. Kielan Whitner struggled in a start against Louisville, and is now injured. True frosh Evan Foster and Devon Clarke bring some much needed size to the position, but Clarke has been injured the entire preseason and likely will not play this year. This unit would have bolstered by James Pierre, a three star S from North Carolina, but he was not admitted to school.
Short term potential: Bleak, although Ellison has emerged as a playmaker
Long term potential: Help is on the way. The staff brought in a couple of prospects last year [Foster / Clarke] who improve the size of the S corps. It remains to be seen whether Pierre can rectify his issues via prep school and enroll in January, or whether he needs to go the JUCO route. For the class of 2017, the coaching staff has lined up a trio of players who will bring an infusion of athleticism into the secondary in Eric Coley [6-1], Ifeatu Melifonwu [6-3], and Russell Thompson-Bishop [6-2]. It remains to be seen whether these guys end up at CB, S, or WR, but when combined with the class of 2016, should improve both the depth and the suitability of secondary personnel for the Tampa 2.
So where does all of the above leave us?
Short term prognosis: In general, the conversion to new systems is further along on the offensive side of the ball, due to having better personnel capable of thriving in the new system [despite limitations at OL and TE]. The blocking has been subpar and needs to improve, but the offensive potential is there for this team to score a lot of points against peer programs.
Even though we took it on the chin against Louisville [who have suddenly emerged as a legitimate playoff contender, after dismantling #2 FSU] and a high powered USF offense, the Orange have the potential to score a couple of important W's in the next couple of games. These peer programs will provide a much better barometer of where things stand than Louisville did.
At a high level, the transformation toward markedly improved offensive play has been significant, and consistent with Babers's previous two stops. Our statistical performance will improve over the next couple of games; although we struggled at times against Louisville / USF, not every team will have the caliber of athletes that they have—which should enable the offense to score more points. We have winnable games against uconn, bc, and wake. The questions are:
On defense, we need to surround our quality corps of DT with DEs who are more experienced and who can help generate an improved pass rush, we need bigger LBs, and we need to add depth / talent to the secondary. Many of the pieces of the puzzle are on the roster already; more reinforcements arrive in the class of 2017. And of course, it will help as the group get increasingly acclimated to / comfortable with the new defensive system—enabling them to just react and play instead of thinking and playing a half step slower since the system isn't instinctive for the group yet.
Long term prognosis:
The coaching staff tore off the band aid in implementing new systems on both sides of the ball, and the defensive personnel that aren't optimized for Tampa 2 are struggling a bit as a result. Injuries to several key players have only exacerbated the situation on D. The question is, how quickly will it take for the newbies to round into form as contributors… and will they benefit from being thrown to the wolves early by gaining valuable game experience that they can use to build upon in the off-season?
The team is staring a 4-8 or a 5-7 type of season in the face, but could certainly qualify for bowl contention if a few things break our way. The offense should continue to improve throughout the course of the season; it is important to keep in perspective that they only have 3 games in the new system under their belts, and will get more efficient as they get more comfortable.
The defense is a major liability this year, but could improve as some injured players return, and some inexperienced players gain their sea legs. How much improvement—if any—is it realistic to expect this season remains to be seen.
Babers has a track record of his teams taking a monumental step forward in year 2. If that happens next year, then it will make the year 1 growing pains worth it. The staff continues to demonstrate that they can recruit at a higher level than their predecessors. This will eventually pay off, and help accelerate the "rebuild" as Babers crafts the team in his own image. Honestly, the future looks bright—even if the results in week 2 and 3 [and future beat downs against FSU and Clemson likely] have some scratching their heads and doubting the approach.
Ultimately, Babers was probably right when he said that things would take time—maybe as much as 12 months longer than he expected. We've already seen a positive transformation on offense; once the personnel fits the new defensive scheme better, we should see improved performance on that side of the ball, as well.
Having a half-empty Dome isn't going to impress any recruits, but luckily the staff has lined up more than 2/3 of the class already. Now, they have to hang onto them. And if they could ever win some games, they might generate enough buzz to put butts in seats for the remaining home games.
Let's Go Orange!!!
Quarterback: Eric Dungey is a potential stud who has already taken too much punishment in week 3. His arm looks a little tired, and he's made some bad throws in recent games that are partially attributable to how quickly the pocket is breaking down around him. When he has time to throw, he's shown nice accuracy, and appears to be a very strong fit for Babers's system. Even when he's not playing exceptionally well, he's putting up numbers that we would have killed for in recent years in what is essentially a "C" game for him. Also important to keep in mind that he's a true sophomore who missed significant developmental time last year, is learning his second system in two years, and is only in game 3 of figuring things out. Mahoney seems to have improved his accuracy, and gives us a quality backup with actual game experience, that enabled us to redshirt our true frosh QB. Culpepper arrived in January and participated in spring practice, and now isn't being rushed onto the field. Devito blew up after we offered him. With Dungey in the fold for two more years, and those two waiting in the wings, the future looks bright at QB [finally]. And once we start putting up video game numbers in Baber's system, we should have no shortage of QB prospects who want to come play here down the road.
Short term potential: Good, provided Dungey can remain upright
Long term potential: Strong
Running Back: I like the raw materials in the pipeline, but we really need at least one bigger back [Jo-El Shaw would have helped address this issue]. Fredricks was terrific last year, but struggled this offseason to remain in shape and is now the platoon back. Strickland [on paper] seems like a better fit for how the coaching staff envisions using the RB position, but he's been inconsistent so far this season. The play of the OL is undoubtedly holding this unit back a bit. We have both of these guys back for two more full years after this one. Moe Neal has primarily played backup running back, but looks tailor made for the same role Ervin Philips is playing now. Stritzinger arrives next year with an impressive offer list and a chance to carve out a niche / bolster depth. Did I mentioned that we need a bigger back in the fold?
Short term potential: Hopefully, the USF game was a sign that the running game is starting to click
Long term potential: Solid
Wide Receiver: Amba Etta-Tawo has been a freaking godsend. And Philips has smoothly transitioned to WR after playing a hybrid role the previous two years. Those two make our offense dynamic and potentially explosive. Estime isn't in as prominent of a role, but still a big play threat as evidenced by his TD catch against USF. Interestingly, Ishmael has been in more of a complimentary role this season. Custis and Enoicy probably won't see much time, and probably never will at this point as the coaching staff bring in their own players. Neither Butler nor Riley have factored in much, but are gaining valuable experience and will figure to step into more prominent roles next year. Butler in particular brings an intriguing blend of size / athleticism to the position. Scoop Bradshaw moved here during camp, and probably won't see much time [if any] this year, but could make a splash down the road]. And we're adding a ton of WR talent to the fold next year that on paper appears to enhance the position's speed, size, and playmaking. Nykeim Johnson is small but elusive, Sharod Johnson is kicking a$$ at a big time program in Florida, and Cameron Jordan / Josh Palmer bring some much needed size to the position. Remains to be seen whether Thompson-Bishop ends up here on in the secondary. He's got the athleticism to excel at either spot.
Short term potential: Etta-Tawo and Philips have impressed, and the depth here is quality
Long term potential: Need to replace Etta-Tawo's deep threat next year, but the future looks bright
Tight End: Not much to get excited about here. Paris has battled injuries and can't get on the field. Moore has also battled injuries. Legacy Georgetown transfer MacPherson is a stop gap, but not a difference maker. Clark [who ended up at Pitt] would have been a perfect fit for this offense. Things are so dire at TE, that the staff moved Kenneth Ruff [who'd spent the offseason at LB and DE] to TE, just to bolster the unit. Whether he remains there long term remains to be seen. Unbelievably, next season, things might actually be WORSE at this positional unit. A true frosh could contend for a starting position next year, which generally isn't a formula for success. For next year, we have Aaron Hackett lined up to commit, but he'll need to mature a bit physically to handle the full set of responsibilities [6-3 225 right now]. The staff may have backed off of Charles Reeves due to academic concerns, who has the physical tools to play right away. What happens with him is up in the air. The staff will need to add at least one more prospect here to just fill in the depth chart, given what we'll lose this offseason.
Short term potential: Won't get much production from this group this season
Long term potential: Might need to look down the road for this position to be optimized. Hopefully, the way Babers utilizes TEs in his offense will be attractive to prospective recruits so we can beef up at this position of need
Offensive Line: The OL has struggled this year [really, the past two years]. We don't seem to hold up at the line of attack in terms of opening holes for the running game OR in pass protection – a bad combo. RT has been a sieve. But we do have a couple of solid pieces of the puzzle. Byrne shifting in to a starting role is intriguing, because he figures to improve the run blocking potential of this unit, and starting a sophomore [Conway] at LT bodes well for the next two years. The question is: are the redshirt frosh better than some of the incumbents? Babers has put together back-to-back solid classes of prospects at OL [which seems like a perpetual trouble spot for SU]. We need time for the true frosh Babers brought in [who are all tall but undersized and need to fill out] to get to their eventual playing weights. Once they do, I think the raw materials will be there for better performance than what we've had the past few years. Until then, I think the OL struggles will continue. Incoming recruits Patrick Davis / Dakota Davis are BIG boys who will help stock the pipeline.
Short term potential: The OL has been the major trouble spot on offense, and doesn't figure to get better this year
Long term potential: Figures to improve in another year or two
Defensive Tackle: The strength of a much-maligned defense is undoubtedly at DT, where we have three players who are all capable of starting in Kayton Samuels, Steve Clark, and Chris Slayton [who's been forced to play out of position at DE—more on this below]—three sophomores. This group's best football is ahead of them, and they will form the foundation of what will hopefully be an improved defense once the team gets acclimated to the Tampa 2 and other positional units around them improve. Behind them, Tyler Cross and Anthony Guidice provide depth, and tall but slightly undersized McKinley Williams figures to make a splash down the road as he adds size and gets immersed in a collegiate strength and conditioning program. The staff is bringing in a big DT prospect in Curtis Harper who was reportedly the staff's top choice at DT. If they can get anything from Cross / Guidice / Williams, this group appears to be well stocked for the long term.
Short term potential: Good, and will only improve over time
Long term potential: Strong for the next couple of years, especially if the staff continues to add prospects like Williams / Harper
Defensive End: The DE position is a confusing in that this group epitomizes the futility of the defense's struggles this year AND offers reasons for optimism down the road. Depleted by the defection of the unit's best player, Ron Thompson [who tossed his ring into NFL draft contention this past offseason], the Orange returned no players who were part of last year's rotation, and no players who'd even played a snap in their collegiate careers. The Orange seemed to have landed a player who would have bolstered the unit in FCS transfer Gabe Sherrod, but the coaching staff pulled his scholarship over his continued flirtations with Michigan State. In his place, they brought in 5th year transfer De'jon Wilson, who didn't play much at Colorado. He's more of a depth guy than an impact player. The situation is so dire that the staff moved Slayton outside to DE from his more natural position at DT in an attempt to get the "best" DL on the field together. This move was necessary because the rest of the unit is manned by frosh—including 3 true frosh. Jake Pickard had offers from Wisconsin and Michigan, and is being counted on to produce. He was injured at the end of preseason camp, and just now getting his sea legs back. The trio of true frosh [Black, Nelson, and Coleman] aren't ready for prime time yet, but in two years, this unit—which is a liability this season—could end up turning into a position of strength. Right now, they're a little behind the curve. The staff has already lined up Zach Morton [from an impressive high school program in Detroit] to bolster the unit down the road.
Short term potential: This group doesn't seem like it will generate much pass rush this year, or make too many plays behind the line of scrimmage. They also struggle to contain, which is as much about the new system / general inexperience as anything
Long term potential: Nelson had impressive offers coming out of HS. Ditto Pickard. And I like the potential of Black / Coleman [who has actually garnered the most PT of the frosh, and earned a starting role]. With a year or two under their belts, this group could develop, but it is going to take time. The lack of depth at this position forced all three incoming frosh onto the field, which is unfortunate. Hopefully that won't be an issue moving forward, as we should be able to field a nice rotation with these four over the next couple of years.
Linebacker: Last year, Franklin and Bennett were the rocks of the defense, displaying speed, instincts and playmaking. This year, they are still the unit's best players, but look to be a half-step slower due to the new system. Make no mistake: I love these two, and they both could / should improve once they get more familiar with their new responsibilities. Both of these guys [Franklin in particular] struggle to cover, which is a problem for a MLB in the Tampa 2, and both are a bit undersized for the new system. The third position is less settled, with Jonathan Thomas [who is even more undersized] manning the WILL. Similarly small Ted Taylor backs him up, with Marquez Hodge [former starter] backing up the other two spots. Shyheim Cullen is emerging as a special teams ace, but hasn't gotten much PT otherwise. The group hasn't gotten any contributions from Alryk Perry or any of the other remaining LBs. The main issues with this unit stem from the group being the types of players that the old staff coveted—smaller and faster—while the new coaching staff needs bigger LBs that will hold up better against the run and also drop into coverage to take away the middle of the field. Fortunately, help is on the way. Last year, Babers brought in two LB prospects [Andrew Armstrong and Tim Walton] who are bigger [both 6-2] than the current group of starters [who are all in the 6-0 range]. And the staff has lined up a trio of LB prospects, including the highly rated Nadarius Fagan [6-2 195], Kadeem Trotter [6-3 196], and Tyrell Richards [6-2 220]. While the former two need to add sand to the bucket, the bigger frames should make them better equipped to handle the responsibilities of LBs in the Tampa 2.
Short term potential: Solid—Franklin and Bennett are a nice nucleus, even if undersized, and should help bridge the gap until the newer players grow into their frames.
Long term potential: The newcomers [including Walton / Armstrong] should be able to get into the 235+ range without sacrificing speed, which is in marked contrast to the size of the current group. It will be interesting to see if a prospect like Fagan contends for a starting role next year, or whether he'll need a year in the S&C program to crack the lineup.
Cornerback: Scary is the word that comes to mind when discussing the depth constraints we're facing at this position. No positional group had a more maligned off-season than the secondary, which had two players get stabbed, two others who weren't admitted to school, and a host of injuries to deal with IN ADDITION to learning a new system. Cory Winfield has been the best CB on the team last season and this year, but the lack of pass rush up front has exposed this group in coverage. Juwan Dowels, the other starter, was lost for the season with a broken arm. Cordell Hudson [RS] has stepped in and has struggled a bit. The depth situation is so poor that true frosh Carl Jones has been rushed onto the two deep. He'll take his lumps this year, but will be better for it down the road, and he has the requisite size [6-2] for the Tampa 2. The group could really use Wayne Morgan [who has struggled his entire career with technique] back, as he brings much needed depth / size to the position. Fellow frosh Scoop Bradshaw was shifted from CB to WR in camp, so there isn't much else in reserve—especially since JUCO transfer Michael Moore [6-3] did not meet eligibility requirements. He would have played a LOT.
Short term potential: This year is going to be rough. Injuries have really hurt this unit, as has the lack of pass rush
Long term potential: See "Safeties," below
Safeties: As with the CBs, this group has also been decimated by injuries. The key performers are also undersized. The team's best S, Antwan Cordy, plays SS despite being 5-8 175. He was last year's top performer in the secondary, but a broken arm in game 2 will have him on the sidelines the rest of the year. His replacement, Daivon Ellison, is a playmaker but also undersized [5-8 177]. The size differential has been both exaggerated and prominently noticeable against our last two opponents, Louisville and USF, where we often had 5-9 or shorter guys attempting to cover 6-4 wideouts. Rodney Williams, a part time starter last year, returns to the lineup after an off-season of injuries. He brings a little more height, but not much heft [186 pounds]. Chauncey Scissum [another part time starter] hasn't played as a function of injuries sustained during an off-season stabbing, but is the biggest player in the group. Redshirt frosh Christopher Frederick hasn't played much. Kielan Whitner struggled in a start against Louisville, and is now injured. True frosh Evan Foster and Devon Clarke bring some much needed size to the position, but Clarke has been injured the entire preseason and likely will not play this year. This unit would have bolstered by James Pierre, a three star S from North Carolina, but he was not admitted to school.
Short term potential: Bleak, although Ellison has emerged as a playmaker
Long term potential: Help is on the way. The staff brought in a couple of prospects last year [Foster / Clarke] who improve the size of the S corps. It remains to be seen whether Pierre can rectify his issues via prep school and enroll in January, or whether he needs to go the JUCO route. For the class of 2017, the coaching staff has lined up a trio of players who will bring an infusion of athleticism into the secondary in Eric Coley [6-1], Ifeatu Melifonwu [6-3], and Russell Thompson-Bishop [6-2]. It remains to be seen whether these guys end up at CB, S, or WR, but when combined with the class of 2016, should improve both the depth and the suitability of secondary personnel for the Tampa 2.
So where does all of the above leave us?
Short term prognosis: In general, the conversion to new systems is further along on the offensive side of the ball, due to having better personnel capable of thriving in the new system [despite limitations at OL and TE]. The blocking has been subpar and needs to improve, but the offensive potential is there for this team to score a lot of points against peer programs.
Even though we took it on the chin against Louisville [who have suddenly emerged as a legitimate playoff contender, after dismantling #2 FSU] and a high powered USF offense, the Orange have the potential to score a couple of important W's in the next couple of games. These peer programs will provide a much better barometer of where things stand than Louisville did.
At a high level, the transformation toward markedly improved offensive play has been significant, and consistent with Babers's previous two stops. Our statistical performance will improve over the next couple of games; although we struggled at times against Louisville / USF, not every team will have the caliber of athletes that they have—which should enable the offense to score more points. We have winnable games against uconn, bc, and wake. The questions are:
- Can the offense light up the scoreboard against such opponents, and
- Will the defense slow teams down enough to enable us to outscore them?
On defense, we need to surround our quality corps of DT with DEs who are more experienced and who can help generate an improved pass rush, we need bigger LBs, and we need to add depth / talent to the secondary. Many of the pieces of the puzzle are on the roster already; more reinforcements arrive in the class of 2017. And of course, it will help as the group get increasingly acclimated to / comfortable with the new defensive system—enabling them to just react and play instead of thinking and playing a half step slower since the system isn't instinctive for the group yet.
Long term prognosis:
The coaching staff tore off the band aid in implementing new systems on both sides of the ball, and the defensive personnel that aren't optimized for Tampa 2 are struggling a bit as a result. Injuries to several key players have only exacerbated the situation on D. The question is, how quickly will it take for the newbies to round into form as contributors… and will they benefit from being thrown to the wolves early by gaining valuable game experience that they can use to build upon in the off-season?
The team is staring a 4-8 or a 5-7 type of season in the face, but could certainly qualify for bowl contention if a few things break our way. The offense should continue to improve throughout the course of the season; it is important to keep in perspective that they only have 3 games in the new system under their belts, and will get more efficient as they get more comfortable.
The defense is a major liability this year, but could improve as some injured players return, and some inexperienced players gain their sea legs. How much improvement—if any—is it realistic to expect this season remains to be seen.
Babers has a track record of his teams taking a monumental step forward in year 2. If that happens next year, then it will make the year 1 growing pains worth it. The staff continues to demonstrate that they can recruit at a higher level than their predecessors. This will eventually pay off, and help accelerate the "rebuild" as Babers crafts the team in his own image. Honestly, the future looks bright—even if the results in week 2 and 3 [and future beat downs against FSU and Clemson likely] have some scratching their heads and doubting the approach.
Ultimately, Babers was probably right when he said that things would take time—maybe as much as 12 months longer than he expected. We've already seen a positive transformation on offense; once the personnel fits the new defensive scheme better, we should see improved performance on that side of the ball, as well.
Having a half-empty Dome isn't going to impress any recruits, but luckily the staff has lined up more than 2/3 of the class already. Now, they have to hang onto them. And if they could ever win some games, they might generate enough buzz to put butts in seats for the remaining home games.
Let's Go Orange!!!
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