RPI rank and likelihood of at-large NCAA bid

[jncuse]

We'd be probably out at that point unless we won @UNC. We can't go 0-3 -- we just can't do it.

GaTech is scary on that 2nd day too, they look like they're making a late push for a bid too -- rather have the Hokies

If we went 0-3 our chances are not 0% either as strange as that may sound. Lack of valid p5 resumes on the outside right now could help us absorb quite a bit of crap.

 

[jncuse]

That WVU win came the day after Holton, one of the top 3 players, was suspended. The ACC is storng this year, I think getting to 9 wins was big. I'm actually more optimistic regarding our place in the field than most. I think we just need 1 more win and we will be in. If we lose to UNC and FSU and get 1 win in the ACCT I think we're OK; obviously I'd rather not risk it, but this team is 15-5 with wins over Duke, UConn, Texas A&M, ND, St. Bonvaneture and Florida State with JB at the helm.

People (mostly other fans) keep saying they shouldn't consider that JB was out, that it was his own doing therefore we should be punished for it, which I get. However, what about the OTHER teams? You could argue (15-5 with JB as of now) that if JB coached every game we'd have at least 3 more wins, which puts us at 22 overall, which puts us around the 6 line most likely. That is who this team truly is with JB, a 6/7 seed. So if we end up a 9, how is that fair to the 1 seed? If the committee decides that with JB (who will be coaching in March) this team is a 6, is it fair to make the 1 seed play us in the 2nd round instead of us playing a 3 seed? It's the same thing if Brandon Ingram got hurt a few weeks ago, ended missing 5 games, and Duke goes 1-4 and falls down 4 or 5 seed lines. Ingram is 100% healthy for the tournament, and all of a sudden the 1 seed has to deal with a full strength Duke team that in reality is a 4 seed with Ingram, not the 8 that they are currently.

I am of the opinion that one win is fine, irregardless of the JB factor unless we get some strange amount of bubble busters.

I think you are overthinking the seeding thing a tad. We have not been so good recently for the committee to even think twice about not putting us on the 8/9 line. If we beat FSU, win a couple games in the ACC, then they make an effort to take us off the 8/9 line... although 7 may be our proper seed anyway in that scenario. But if we can't do the above, I don't think a #1 seed is freaking out if they see us in the 8/9 line.

There have been good teams in the 8/9 line recently (Kentucky SEC Tourney Champ in 2014). You get seeded on the s-curve, add the bracket rules / geography and it's just luck of the draw.

 

[jncuse]

So losing 3 of the 4 last games is cool??

Or quite possibly 3 in a row to close it out is just peachy??

Barring a W tomorrow, fla st is a must win.

Florida St is not a must win. And although not a bad loss, it can certainly be seen as a bad blown opportunity as it then puts all the pressure on winning that first ACC tourney game.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Do the GT and St. John's losses benefit at all from being road games?

 

[jncuse]

So you think the committee is so inamored with Cuse Hoop '16...that it's ok to lose the last 2 regular season games, obviously 1 scheduled...but 1 not.

Then hold serve or worse in the ACCT.

And we are good...


Ok...

Guess you're new around here and the tourney in general.

You also totally discounted Monmouth as an large in a prior thread which was not an unreasonable conclusion. But I think your standards of an at large may be a little high given what will ultimately be out there on Selection Sunday.

The committee is not going to be enamoured with the resumes of any of the last few teams in what is essentially a 70 team field.

If you follow the bubble you realize how weak it is right now, with a big factor being the lack of credible P5 resumes on the outside. One more win, no matter when, we are in great shape.

Look at what is probably the consensus last 4 out right now:

Tulsa
St Bonnie
Alabama
George Washington

Those teams are not all going to push upwards, and some of the teams that are in (but behind us) are also going to slip up.

There is a gap after those last 4 in as well unless a team like Ohio St, LSU, GTech, goes on a run.

One win is not 100%, because everything may work bad on the outside... but with the normal variability of up and down's, the likely scenario is we are good.

 

[Dave85]

Thanks. Very good research. Confirms my obserbed view (which I had never validated) as I have tracked our projected RPI this year. I appreciate it for my future analysis.

I think somebody could misinterpret your results to suggest that the RPI number in itself drives selection which is not really accurate. The RPI is a "look at my metrics" number. It's hard for a P5 school to have a sub 50 RPI and not have some really good key metrics. That is probably the bigger reason it's nearly 100% at that point.

If you are in the 50's or close to it like we are this year, you will have some warts and some good. And that is how they select those teams - that is where our top 50 wins help us.

I just wanted to end up in the 40-60 range, and it seemed based on forecast our RPI at 9-9 would be right around the late 50's. It will end up there or low 60's. My view this year was this.

RPI of 40-60. You will get a full resume search, you have good chances to get in. The good will not be missed (and we have some good top 50 wins)
RPI 60+ --You probably have a few warts that are causing that, and they start to gain importance.
RPI 70+ - They will usually find something smelly to eliminate you right away.

Here is where our RPI projects to if we go 1-1 the next game. It does not really matter if its UNC or FSU as it's a road game against somebody we already played. If we go 1-1 the next 2 games, we will be sub 50 entering tourney week, and I can't see how we will be on the teams on the bubble line entering tourney week -- we will have to much good on our resume for a team with that RPI.

View attachment 56689

If we lose those 2 games we will be right around 60 heading into tourney week. Although there will be a few more teams with 60's getting in this year probably due to SMU and Louisville creating spots... it also depends on bubble buster.

As of now I don't see a P5 team with a projected RPI under 60 that is not in.

Awesome great post!

 

[KaiserUEO]

You also totally discounted Monmouth as an large in a prior thread which was not an unreasonable conclusion. But I think your standards of an at large may be a little high given what will ultimately be out there on Selection Sunday.

The committee is not going to be enamoured with the resumes of any of the last few teams in what is essentially a 70 team field.

If you follow the bubble you realize how weak it is right now, with a big factor being the lack of credible P5 resumes on the outside. One more win, no matter when, we are in great shape.

Look at what is probably the consensus last 4 out right now:

Tulsa
St Bonnie
Alabama
George Washington

Those teams are not all going to push upwards, and some of the teams that are in (but behind us) are also going to slip up.

There is a gap after those last 4 in as well unless a team like Ohio St, LSU, GTech, goes on a run.

One win is not 100%, because everything may work bad on the outside... but with the normal variability of up and down's, the likely scenario is we are good.

listen, im Mr Common Sense.

and the only time that rule doesnt apply...is Selection Sunday.

win the Fn 'win' game on the schedule.

weve lost enough (3 of em...thanks hop) already.

remove the Fn doubt...

 

[OrlandoCuse]

You also totally discounted Monmouth as an large in a prior thread which was not an unreasonable conclusion. But I think your standards of an at large may be a little high given what will ultimately be out there on Selection Sunday.

The committee is not going to be enamoured with the resumes of any of the last few teams in what is essentially a 70 team field.

If you follow the bubble you realize how weak it is right now, with a big factor being the lack of credible P5 resumes on the outside. One more win, no matter when, we are in great shape.

Look at what is probably the consensus last 4 out right now:

Tulsa
St Bonnie
Alabama
George Washington

Those teams are not all going to push upwards, and some of the teams that are in (but behind us) are also going to slip up.

There is a gap after those last 4 in as well unless a team like Ohio St, LSU, GTech, goes on a run.

One win is not 100%, because everything may work bad on the outside... but with the normal variability of up and down's, the likely scenario is we are good.

The "last four in" are usually pushed out by bid stealers from conference tourneys. There's at least one or two each year.

 

[jncuse]

listen, im Mr Common Sense.

and the only time that rule doesnt apply...is Selection Sunday.

win the Fn 'win' game on the schedule.

weve lost enough (3 of em...thanks hop) already.

remove the Fn doubt...

Yes winning removes doubt. Is that your common sense point?

It doesn't really address why we can get in with a modest finish and why FSU is a must win.

 

[jncuse]

First off sorry for deflecting this thread from your original thread which was great info.

The "last four in" are usually pushed out by bid stealers from conference tourneys. There's at least one or two each year.

Yes it will probably be a few spots. It doesn't really change my conclusion. IMO. the last 4 out (or the 2nd last in) is not going to improve over the next few weeks.

The bubble line is fluid. It will move over the next couple of weeks based on 2 things
#1. Teams in moving downwards.
#2. Temas creating upward pressure that are currently on the otuside
#3. A few bubble buster.



But the pool for #2 is really weak and small right now, which is why I am saying the final bubble line is not going to get any better then what we have now. There are very few legit bubble teams on the outside beyond the last 4, and the P5 schools are not even really present on that line. And teams in group #1 are just not all going to magically keep winning.

Even if you move the bubble line up 2 spots to account for bubble busters we are talking about these teams as the last teams out right now:

Cincy or Butler
Gonzaga
Tulsa
Alabama
St Bonaventure
George Washington

If you notice one thing about these teams is that they are not in major conferences. A few will make some moves, although it is harder in a non P5 tourney at thist iem of year.. And if there is any P5 bias there is a lack of P5 teams ready to replace those that are falling..

In terms of P5 teams that are not in as of now, you only have the following that could possibly get in and they all have a lot of work to do.

B1o - Ohio St needs a couple top 50 wins
ACC - Georgia Tech needs to win at Louisville and then finish it off. Florida St needs to beat Syracuse and do damage in the ACC.
SEC - LSU need to win at Kentucky, and follow that up in the SEC Tournament.
P12 - I see nobody that has a chance to get in.
Big East - Creighton would need to win out until the BE final.
B12 - All settled.

So the above analysis of the teams below the line is why I am fairly confident with an even modest resume for us.

 

[Dave85]

listen, im Mr Common Sense.

and the only time that rule doesnt apply...is Selection Sunday.

win the Fn 'win' game on the schedule.

weve lost enough (3 of em...thanks hop) already.

remove the Fn doubt...

In defense of Hop it's not his team. He's kind of been the good cop. You can't play both good cop and bad cop. So when it becomes his team from beginning to end I think he will do better with a consistent bad cop role.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

So if we make it , but have to play in one of those stupid play in games..and lose..will people consider it as having made the tourney?

 

[Dave85]

So if we make it , but have to play in one of those stupid play in games..and lose..will people consider it as having made the tourney?

I think someone said the play-in games are not for any P5 teams. So either we are an 11 seed or lower or we do not make it from what I understand. The original post of this thread is very good. If we lose the next 2 games we will most likely not be in the tournament. If we beat FSU we are most likely in.

 

[NineOneSeven]

I think someone said the play-in games are not for any P5 teams. So either we are an 11 seed or lower or we do not make it from what I understand. The original post of this thread is very good. If we lose the next 2 games we will most likely not be in the tournament. If we beat FSU we are most likely in.

I'm pretty sure Tenn. was in the play-in game, and ucla.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

I think someone said the play-in games are not for any P5 teams. So either we are an 11 seed or lower or we do not make it from what I understand. The original post of this thread is very good. If we lose the next 2 games we will most likely not be in the tournament. If we beat FSU we are most likely in.

Not correct. The play in games are open to all conferences.

 

[Knicks411]

Do the GT and St. John's losses benefit at all from being road games?

Benefit is maybe not the right term? But they'd definitely look worse if they were home losses. Though the St Johns is just so bad period.

 

[omniorange]

In defense of Hop it's not his team. He's kind of been the good cop. You can't play both good cop and bad cop. So when it becomes his team from beginning to end I think he will do better with a consistent bad cop role.

While I am in the camp that Hop deserves his shot at it, I don't think it will be as easy for him to switch to "bad cop" role (to use your analogy) as many on this board seem to think.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[Cusefan0307]

Our RPI will go up tonight regardless if we win or lose.

 

[NYCSUGrad]

listen, im Mr Common Sense.

and the only time that rule doesnt apply...is Selection Sunday.

win the Fn 'win' game on the schedule.

weve lost enough (3 of em...thanks hop) already.

remove the Fn doubt...

And yet ANOTHER swipe at Hopkins. "Mr Common Sense" seems to be blaming Hopkins for losing five of the first nine games he coached, the first of which he had less than 48 hours to prepare for since the NCAA moved up the start of JB's suspension quite abruptly and arbitrarily, as if no other coaches had ever compiled such a grevious record before.

Honestly, does anyone with common sense hold grudges like you do for someone who has not personally aggrieved you?

 

[jncuse]

RPI Forecast now has projected resume's after the conference tournament, Can't comment on the methodology but there model (pre-tourney) seemed to hold up this year, These numbers would be based on us losing to FSU, and then going 1-1 in the ACC. In this case our RPI would be right close to that 60 mark (Expected 59.7)

 

[OrlandoCuse]

View attachment 56827

RPI Forecast now has projected resume's after the conference tournament, Can't comment on the methodology but there model (pre-tourney) seemed to hold up this year, These numbers would be based on us losing to FSU, and then going 1-1 in the ACC. In this case our RPI would be right close to that 60 mark (Expected 59.7)

Bottom line, we need to win at least two more games.

 

[pearl31]

Bottom line, we need to win at least two more games.

No, that's actually not the bottom line.

 

[pulaski74]

Those are pretty revelatory #s, but...
I'd like to see how many of those RPI 51-70 teams that were left out also had 5 top 50 wins and 3 top 25 wins - I'm guessing not one of them did... and it would also be good to look closely at top-50 rpi teams from a p5 that were left out (i.e., the 9% of your first line of %s) - I'll bet their resumes just do not cut it whatsoever - in other words, there are teams every year that "game" the rpi but don't have the meat and potatoes to back it up

is that a real word? Just wondering and trying to keep up w/ the new dictionary

 

[pearl31]

is that a real word? Just wondering and trying to keep up w/ the new dictionary

huh?

 

[pulaski74]

huh?

revelatory?