SU -9 vs CMU

[IthacaBarrel]

If you had a live ticket on a pick 5 in the last race you could have backed it up by laying off a bit on the rest of the field , W-P-S , or exacta's , or Tri's. Maybe a strategy if you get that position in the future.

I hear you but 10 Horses in the last race, would have been difficult, I had 2 so you are left playing 8 horses if you take the two out of it. Still would have been a rather large gamble. I also liked the 2 horses and would have used them somewhere on the bottom of any exotic. Probably a decent strategy if pick 5 was chalk heavy up front and was going to pay $600-$700 really tough to hedge when a pick 5 is paying that much.

 

[Pyle]

I won $5 off a $1 scratch off a few weeks back....

 

[690West]

line is down to -6.5 all over. Pretty good drop from -9

 

[CousCuse]

line is down to -6.5 all over. Pretty good drop from -9

So Vegas set the bait and now the money is flowing to one side of the bet. Does anyone think that is an accident?

 

[GoCuse08]

line is down to -6.5 all over. Pretty good drop from -9

Damn...I got in when it was at -7...I should have waited.

 

[007]

Yes , I'll take Cuse and lay the points.

Sorry, I meant do you wanna bet on the accuracy of your statement that "this line is set to push casual bettors onto CMU."

 

[CousCuse]

Sorry, I meant do you wanna bet on the accuracy of your statement that "this line is set to push casual bettors onto CMU."

It appears that a lot of money went onto CMU plus the points to drop the line from -9 to -6.5 . Do you think the actuaries with super computers don't know what they're doing? Of course I can't prove things either way. Just a theory.

 

[007]

It appears that a lot of money went onto CMU plus the points to drop the line from -9 to -6.5 . Do you think the actuaries with super computers don't know what they're doing? Of course I can't prove things either way. Just a theory.

I think Vegas knows exactly what they are doing. The lines are set to encourage money coming in on both sides. It has always been that way. The fact the lined dropped is all the proof you need that too much $$$ was coming in on CMU, so they lowered the spread to encourage money on SU. It has nothing to do with wanting to "push casual bettors onto CMU."

 

[Mistakebythelake90]

Sorry, I meant do you wanna bet on the accuracy of your statement that "this line is set to push casual bettors onto CMU."

I know nothing about betting, but this seems to be what happened to me. Casual fan sees CMU beating Purdue, and Syracuse (who most casual fans still associate with being Grob bad) barely beating a DII school. Then, they see a line of -9, and they think easy money. Hell, I bet if you went to most other school forums and asked them about this game, most would say that CMU wins straight up.

 

[syr02esq]

Is there ever situation where Cuse loses and you still lose your bet? That would hurt twice as much.

I've only bet the "spread" before. How does money line work? I'm a newbie.

 

[CousCuse]

I know nothing about betting, but this seems to be what happened to me. Casual fan sees CMU beating Purdue, and Syracuse (who most casual fans still associate with being Grob bad) barely beating a DII school. Then, they see a line of -9, and they think easy money. Hell, I bet if you went to most other school forums and asked them about this game, most would say that CMU wins straight up.

That's the way I see it. And most times I have seen this , the opposite comes true.

 

[bevosu]

I've only bet the "spread" before. How does money line work? I'm a newbie.

This explains it...

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/sportsgambling101/a/intromoneylines.htm

 

[JrodCuse]

The safest bets right now are 4 team teasers in the nfl. Pick the over on 4 high scoring offenses and profit. The new rules are going to push scoring way up.

 

[BlazeOrange]

I think Vegas knows exactly what they are doing. The lines are set to encourage money coming in on both sides. It has always been that way. The fact the lined dropped is all the proof you need that too much $$$ was coming in on CMU, so they lowered the spread to encourage money on SU. It has nothing to do with wanting to "push casual bettors onto CMU."

But the catch is that they want equal money on each team by gametime. If they have an idea that the "smart" (big) money is leaning toward SU, they might open the line higher to build a cushion the other way. In particular, if they know a heavy hitter is willing to bet $X at Y points, they can do the math and know exactly when to change the line to hedge it (it wouldn't actually be just one person/line though, but a calculated total). Once they have enough, the line drops until the high rollers jump in.

 

[Opus]

I have no idea why I read this entire thread because I am not a gambler. :noidea:

That being said anyone want to loan me $100 to bet on Syracuse? I'll give you $101 back IF I win.

 

[Pyle]

But the catch is that they want equal money on each team by gametime. If they have an idea that the "smart" (big) money is leaning toward SU, they might open the line higher to build a cushion the other way. In particular, if they know a heavy hitter is willing to bet $X at Y points, they can do the math and know exactly when to change the line to hedge it (it wouldn't actually be just one person/line though, but a calculated total). Once they have enough, the line drops until the high rollers jump in.

Exactly right, they don't make money wanting 1 team to win over another. They make money by balancing the bets so the money coming in pays for the money going out, they make their money on the overhead they collect from the winners. What is it about 10%?

 

[690West]

Line is down to -4.5 at some books. Just a remarkable amount of money all week flowing Chippewa. I gotta imagine sharps will see some serious value on cuse at this number.

 

[anomander]

It appears that this line is set to push casual bettors onto CMU. Handicap the Vegas line , not the teams.

If you didn't bet CMU when it opened at +9 you shouldn't really take it since it's lost all it's value. The play right now is definitely Cuse -4.5. It would be amazing if you got CMU +9 and Cuse -4.5 . That's a beautiful middle opportunity around the key number 7. Although you might not want to waste a great bet of CMU +9.

But you are right playing the lines/value is what you have to do, using books where you can get low juice.

I always thought teasers were the way to go, you dont win the money of a parlay but your odds are so much better

Teasers are death in CFB. However, NFL the lines are so tight teasers are the way to go.

 

[anomander]

The safest bets right now are 4 team teasers in the nfl. Pick the over on 4 high scoring offenses and profit. The new rules are going to push scoring way up.

Which books let you take ov/un in 4 team teasers? Plus the juice is far too much for there to be any value in 4 team teasers. 6 point even money teasers in the NFL are the best bet in sports.

It appears that a lot of money went onto CMU plus the points to drop the line from -9 to -6.5 . Do you think the actuaries with super computers don't know what they're doing? Of course I can't prove things either way. Just a theory.

There could have been a popular service that had a play on CMU for the line to jump down that much. Even early in the season dropping 4.5 points is as big of a swing as your going to see.