Sweet sixteen betting due diligence thread

[orangenauburn]

 

[Cusefan0307]

Are the officials really going to allow Houston to not foul out their entire team against Duke?

 

[hoopsupstate]

It’s kind of hard when you are usually seeded one or two. If you beat a higher seed you almost have to be national champs.

 

[Brooky03]

just locked in Duke moneyline.

Thanks for the tip!

 

[jordoo]

Are the officials really going to allow Houston to not foul out their entire team against Duke?

No, and they should all foul out. Have you watched them play it’s like a more athletic version of Pittsburgh’s defense under Howland.

 

[Cusefan0307]

No, and they should all foul out. Have you watched them play it’s like a more athletic version of Pittsburgh’s defense under Howland.

I don't disagree. They got real handsy with us 3 years ago when we played with them as well.

 

[Sbucketball]

That's actually an insane stat. Partially because they earn high seeds often, but still I'm shocked.

 

[upperdeck]

14 seeds at 2 or more.. i guess how any times did they play the 1 in the sweet 16 as a 2 thats 8 chances

as a 3-4 threes times to play the 1 or 2
the 8 and the 6 seed you had a chance game 2.

or maybe every time luck happens and the higher seed lost before they got the chance

 

[kirbivore]

14 seeds at 2 or more.. i guess how any times did they play the 1 in the sweet 16 as a 2 thats 8 chances

as a 3-4 threes times to play the 1 or 2
the 8 and the 6 seed you had a chance game 2.

or maybe every time luck happens and the higher seed lost before they got the chance

I think some of those years they were overseeded.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

Like Kentucky they are way younger than everyone else. Been slightly better at not shitting the bed early.

Long season and most of the team has checked out and moved onto the NBA draft.


Somehow during this time UNC has become a program of 4 year players with zero players good enough to leave early for the NBA. Thus better tourney performance.

 

[Fly Rodder]

METRICS!!!!!

 

[BuffOrange]

No, and they should all foul out. Have you watched them play it’s like a more athletic version of Pittsburgh’s defense under Howland.

I wasn't watching that closely but Jay Wright at halftime showed about 3 layups of A&M drivers getting hammered with no call. And they still shot 45 FT's(?!), yikes.

 

[jncuse]

Did some quick research via basketball reference. As some expected there is not many games they played in this scenario.

They have only had 4 games in the last 30 years where they played a team seeded higher than them. They were all in the sweet 16 and of the course they would be 0-4, or there would ne no thread.. Interestingly though, Duke has lost 8 times as the "favoured" seed in sweet 16 games. Bolded games below -- lots of #1-4 and #1-5 losses.

2003 (#3 seed) - lost to Kansas a #2 seed.
2013 (#2 seed) - lost to Louisville a #1 seed
2016 (#4 seed) - lost to Oregon a #1 seed (the Dillon Brooks, crybaby Coach K game)
2018 (# 2 seed) - lost to Kansas as a #1 seed

I decided to post every game they lost to a lower seed, as it might lead to some pleasant memories for some of us. Yes every team with high seeds will lose these games, but it Duke. Sweet 16 losses are bolded, as well as losses as #1 or #2 seed in the first two round (which are italicized)

1996 - lost a #8-#9 game against Eastern Michigan
1997 - lost a #2-#10 against Providence
1998 - lost a #1-#2 game against Kentucky
2000 - lost a #1-#5 game against Florida
2002 - lost a #1-#5 game against Indiana
2004 - lost a #1-#2 game against UConn
2005 - lost a #1-#5 game against Michigan St
2006 - lost a #1-#4 game against LSU
2007 - lost a #6-#11 game against VCU
2008 - lost a #2-#7 game against West Virgnia
2009 - lost a #2-#3 game against Villanova
2011 - lost a #1-#5 against Arizona
2012 - lost a #2-#15 game against Lehigh
2014 - lost a #3-#14 game against Mercer
2017 - lost a #2-#7 game against South Carolina
2019 - lost a #1-#2 game against Michigan St
2022 - Lost a #2-#8 game against UNC

 

[Cusefan0307]

Houston plays elite D, but they are suspect on offense. That usually only gets you so far. They get so few shots at the rim compared to the other teams left. Surprised at Creighton as I have been impressed with them this season.

 

[jncuse]

By my quick eye-ball count in the Sweet 16, Duke is 0-4 when the lower seed and 12-9 as the higher seed since 1994. I know there is an inconsistnecy between the 9 losses here, and the 8 above, but I don't give a **** and not cross referencing it.

 

[jncuse]

When I was scanning the game lists, though I was reminded of the absolute gift that Duke got in 2010.

#1. They were granted a #1 seed they did not deserve.
#2. They were then placed against the #4 seed Purdue, who everybody knew was really banged up, and was a wounded duck. Why the heck should Duke, the worst #1 seed that year, get the worst teams as #4 and #5 seeds.

 

[BuffOrange]

When I was scanning the game lists, though I was reminded of the absolute gift that Duke got in 2010.

#1. They were granted a #1 seed they did not deserve.
#2. They were then placed against the #4 seed Purdue, who everybody knew was really banged up, and was a wounded duck. Why the heck should Duke, the worst #1 seed that year, get the worst teams as #4 and #5 seeds.

They lost to every good team they played on the road that year too iirc. Including G'town by double digits.
'05 we had the same resume' pretty much, they're a 1, we're a 4.
That South Carolina team they lost to was the worst #7 by a lot in Kenpom...tends to happen a lot.

 

[Col. Bleep]

Do all those old Duke games really have anything to do with this year and this team and this matchup?

 

[jncuse]

Do all those old Duke games really have anything to do with this year and this team and this matchup?

Zero impact. but Duke losses are always fun to discuss.

 

[orangenauburn]

So take?
Houston and Marquette
Bama and Illinois
Creighton and Zona
Purdue and UConn

1 - Houston, Purdue, and UConn
2 - Marquette and Zona
3 - Creighton and Illinois
4 - Bama

Elite Eight
UConn v Illinois
Houston v Marquette
Bama v Arizona
Purdue v Creighton

 

[Cusefan0307]

So take?
Houston and Marquette
Bama and Illinois
Creighton and Zona
Purdue and UConn

1 - Houston, Purdue, and UConn
2 - Marquette and Zona
3 - Creighton and Illinois
4 - Bama

Elite Eight
UConn v Illinois
Houston v Marquette
Bama v Arizona
Purdue v Creighton

UNC beats Bama easily. Bama is way overrated. I have more faith in Clemson beating Arizona. Creighton isn't winning either.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Houston plays elite D, but they are suspect on offense. That usually only gets you so far. They get so few shots at the rim compared to the other teams left. Surprised at Creighton as I have been impressed with them this season.

Too bad Houston won't meet up with Alabama unless a title game (which, yuck). Best defense and suspect offense vs suspect defense and best offense.