TNIAAM -- Roster retention rates

[billsin01]

Thought this article was really interesting regarding retention rates in the SEC vs. what we've seen here the past several years (well, the article looks at the past few years, our retention issues go back to the end of the P era). To summarize the article for folks who don't care to read it, the SEC as a conference has an average retention rate of 91% -- the worst school is at 79%. Cuse has already lost 1/3 of it's 2015 class has a retention rate of around 67%. TNIAAM's John Casillo (who I feel I should mention for a good original article outside the norm) notes that a bunch of these transfers are specific to coaching changes and says the number is more like 81% outside of that.

But, at the end of the day, the fact remains, 67% is atrocious. I point this and the inherent flaws of the star system out a lot regarding recruiting -- so much so that I'm sure people tune me out and consider me an idiot. But, nonetheless, to me this is issue of losing 1/3 of our players leads, among other things, to fewer redshirts and therefore fewer upperclassmen on the roster.

I don't know exactly what the answer is particularly b/c I think this is simply a world where kids move schools far more often. But while we focus on stars and 40 times and all that, I really believe we've got to find a way to get more of these kids to stay on campus for four years and, ideally, 5 if we can get them to redshirt (if they are so good they go to the NFL after three or four, obviously I have no problem with that).

 

[upperdeck]

the SEC loses a ton of kids early to the NFL, so if you recruit better players and lose them to the NFL it doesnt count against retention, but if you recruit lesser players and they transfer it does.. one is leaving for a better place that skews the number one isnt.. is there really a difference?

 

[billsin01]

the SEC loses a ton of kids early to the NFL, so if you recruit better players and lose them to the NFL it doesnt count against retention, but if you recruit lesser players and they transfer it does.. one is leaving for a better place that skews the number one isnt.. is there really a difference?

Yes -- a huge difference. Presumably you're getting a high level of play for at least one year but more likely 2-3 years out of a player who heads out to the NFL.

A player who leaves after a year or two for whatever reason (even if they have the talent but it is disciplinary or academics related) probably contributed very little to the program but took up a spot for a year or two. That crushes any team, but particularly a team that needs a strong developmental pipeline as opposed to a school pulling in a slew or 4-star kids every year.

I'd say that is actually the central point of the discussion.

 

[HtownOrange]

I didn't read the story, but I suspect the writer conveniently left out all the gray shirts. If one adds in these kids, I am sure that the SEC numbers will look less impressive.

 

[retro44]

I didn't read the story, but I suspect the writer conveniently left out all the gray shirts. If one adds in these kids, I am sure that the SEC numbers will look less impressive.

That might only hold water for a one year example,but when teams do it year after year it balances out the sample.

 

[billsin01]

I didn't read the story, but I suspect the writer conveniently left out all the gray shirts. If one adds in these kids, I am sure that the SEC numbers will look less impressive.

I don't think the writer who is a Syracuse fan conveniently left anything out. What do gray shirts matter over a four-year period? I mean, read the story.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Shafer recruited very poorly in many areas, he got a few solid players but he stunk on the last 9-10 guys for sure. too much love of the game nonsense not enough on the measurable, stats aren't for losers

 

[HtownOrange]

I don't think the writer who is a Syracuse fan conveniently left anything out. What do gray shirts matter over a four-year period? I mean, read the story.

Respectfully, I disagree. Gray shirts matter because they are not counted officially as do not receive an athletic scholarship and when they leave because they never get the scholarship, they do not count against attrition. However, they were retained by the school via a slim chance, perceived promises or false promises. This should count against teh SEC which routinely gray shirts kids and sends them packing (see Saban stories on this topic).