Tracking the Bubble

[obliterata]

I'll be surprised if LSU doesn't get in, they've got a decent chance at finishing first in the SEC regular season. If they win their home games and beat the teams they're better than on the road they'll finish 14-4. Upset South Carolina tonight and 15-3 is very doable.

Clemson definitely has work to do, I don't think 11-7 is good enough either. If 12-6 doesn't get them in that's going to be pretty funny.

 

[Dave85]

Syracuse is doing that on March 6th...

http://www.nunesmagician.com/2016/2...red-at-45th-syracuse-mens-basketball-hardwood

What was really interesting about the 2003 run is it seemed like a different player stepped up every night. This year's team ability to play better during big games will be very interesting if they get into the tournament. I sure hope they win tomorrow which will help seal the deal.

 

[pearl31]

I'll be surprised if LSU doesn't get in, they've got a decent chance at finishing first in the SEC regular season. If they win their home games and beat the teams they're better than on the road they'll finish 14-4. Upset South Carolina tonight and 15-3 is very doable.

sure, if they do all that, they'll be in. right now though their resume is crap and they shouldn't be regarded anywhere near "in"

 

[jncuse]

sure, if they do all that, they'll be in. right now though their resume is crap and they shouldn't be regarded anywhere near "in"

Not sure that they are still out "As of now" -- they may have now reached the point that it is acceptable.

The fact that LSU is so close as of today , makes me feel even more comfortable if we get to 9-9. The bubble is weakening.

 

[jncuse]

One thing I am starting to worry about is Bubble Busters -- how many spots could they take?

I doubt there will be one from the P5 or the Big East.
Slight chance from the A-10 -- they will have 3 or 4 mediocore at large teams, but they will need to fend off some decent teams, and there is history of it,

But after that if any of these teams fall in their tournament they will create multiple bid conferences:
Wichita St
Valparaiso
Monmouth
UConn/Cincy not winning the AAC
San Diego St???

I am going to assume 3 spots. Which means we are still fine.

 

[MSOrange]

sure, if they do all that, they'll be in. right now though their resume is crap and they shouldn't be regarded anywhere near "in"

I mentioned this in the thread yesterday but it will be interesting to see if the NCAA factors in Keith Hornsby missing some early season games due to injury and Craig Victor becoming eligible at the semester break after transferring from Arizona when looking at LSU.

 

[pearl31]

I mentioned this in the thread yesterday but it will be interesting to see if the NCAA factors in Keith Hornsby missing some early season games due to injury and Craig Victor becoming eligible at the semester break after transferring from Arizona when looking at LSU.

yeah, possibly, but they had Mr. all-world the whole time...

 

[obliterata]

sure, if they do all that, they'll be in. right now though their resume is crap and they shouldn't be regarded anywhere near "in"

Their "big" OOC win is beating South Alabama at home, pathetic. However, right now, they're in first place in the SEC with an 8-2 record and have a good chance of finishing 14-4 and no worse than tied for second at the end of the regular season. I think they lose tonight @ South Carolina and @ Kentucky and win the rest and do indeed finish 14-4 but even at 13-5 I think they're in.

Pretty big game for them tonight but they don't have to win. Even bigger game for SU tomorrow, lose and getting to 9-9 isn't going to be easy.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Texas A n M loses again by 1 to Bama...yikes

 

[jncuse]

In terms of early games tonight:

In the 2 battles of bubble teams, the road team won which is huge for them (lets hope that trend ends tomorrow!)
Butler won at Seton Hall
St. Joes won convincingly at George Washington.

South Carolina handled LSU at home.

Bonnies just slipped by again - beating Fordham in OT.

And as noted above Texas AM lost again to a modest SEC team. I would really hate for that to not be a top 25 RPI victory by season end.

 

[Ajflood12]

I don't get LSU. They have a great conference record but losses to Wake, Houston and NC state. Just don't see how it is on par with CUSE. St johns game was an ugly loss i guess.

Tough times when you have to worry about all these other teams losing. Forgot the feeling.

 

[Moontan]

What was really interesting about the 2003 run is it seemed like a different player stepped up every night.

True, and we haven't had that feeling since.
Josh, Billy, Gerry, Kueth, Hakim, 'Melo, and Forth/McNeil were an awesome bunch.

Me gots a feeling that 2017, or 2018, could be special again. #GoOrange!

 

[pearl31]

Butler won at Seton Hall
St. Joes won convincingly at George Washington.

These two games were really kind of a wash either way, with both teams in both games essentially on the bubble. You can pretty easily argue how either possible outcome of either game might be good for other bubble teams

 

[jncuse]

Let's talk about PROVIDENCE. They just lost in overtime at Marquette The entire season (be it in December or now) there has been a majordisconnect between the Providence AP ranking and KP ranking which is now 50 (it was around 35-40 most of the season)

And they are now starting to make that KP ranking not seem totally out of whack,

Providence lost to Depaul. They got sweeped by Marquette. They are now 6-6 in the Big East, They should still get to 10-8. In OOC they did nothing bad -- won all their games they should and Zona on a neutral floor. After that it was a neutral win against Evansville, and a road win at Rhode Island. Top 100 teams but not near tourney teams.

They are now down to the 7/8 line. They would really need to screw up to not get in, but this may not be that highly seeded a team -- which was once expected.

 

[jncuse]

These two games were really kind of a wash either way, with both teams in both games essentially on the bubble. You can pretty easily argue how either possible outcome of either game might be good for other bubble teams

It's a fair perspective from a purely Syracuse point of view, as its a plus and minus. But for Butler and St. Joes, the wins have extra value because they are good road wins. I just found it interesting that the road teams won both games.

 

[pearl31]

Let's talk about PROVIDENCE. They just lost in overtime at Marquette The entire season (be it in December or now) there has been a majordisconnect between the Providence AP ranking and KP ranking which is now 50 (it was around 35-40 most of the season)

And they are now starting to make that KP ranking not seem totally out of whack,

Providence lost to Depaul. They got sweeped by Marquette. They are now 6-6 in the Big East, They should still get to 10-8. In OOC they did nothing bad -- won all their games they should and Zona on a neutral floor. After that it was a neutral win against Evansville, and a road win at Rhode Island. Top 100 teams but not near tourney teams.

They are now down to the 7/8 line. They would really need to screw up to not get in, but this may not be that highly seeded a team -- which was once expected.

bigtime underachiever the past month or so - with Dunn and Bentil they just should not be losing this many games... Cooley seems like a good guy and a good recruiter but I do question his game preparations and in-game coaching

 

[jncuse]

These two games were really kind of a wash either way, with both teams in both games essentially on the bubble. You can pretty easily argue how either possible outcome of either game might be good for other bubble teams

Getting back to this point, from a Syracuse point of view you are quite right. The bigger games tonight are Texas Tech and Kansas St with chances to get top 50 wins at home, as they could strengthen the bottom by beating teams who are in anyway.

 

[pearl31]

Getting back to this point, from a Syracuse point of view you are quite right. The bigger games tonight are Texas Tech and Kansas St with chances to get top 50 wins at home, as they could strengthen the bottom by beating teams who are in anyway.

Yep

 

[Moontan]

jncuse : you sure've got a lot of free time.

Go Orange!

 

[pearl31]

so KState loses but Texas Tech wins...
in all pretty much a wash for the night

 

[pulaski74]

Seeds in Brackets per BracketMatrix, vs.=Home Game
Win Probability per RPI Forecast
Top 50 Win Opportunity in Bold

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 10

6:30
(Last 4 Out) Butler at (#9) Seton Hall (49%)

7:00
(Last 4 In) LSU at South Carolina (33$)
(Last 4 Out) Wisconsin vs Nebraska (69%)
(Last 8 Out) St Bonaventure at Fordham (60%)
(#10) St. Joes at (Last 4 In) George Washington (40%)

8:00
(Last 4 Out) Kansas St vs Baylor (53%)

9:00
(Last 8 Out) Vanderbilt vs Missouri (95%)
(Last 8 Out) Texas Tech vs Iowa St (41%)
(#9) Michigan at Minnesota (82%)
(#11) Washington at Utah (29%)

11:00
(#12) San Diego St at Fresno St (59%)

The key games on Wednesday are bolded... Those are top 50 win opportunities and 2 games where bubble teams head to head.
Seton Hall, Texas Tech, Kansas St, and George Washington have to take advantage of top 50 win opportunities at home.

Butler has really faded quick with their poor Big East play.

Can Michigan at Minnesota be the big upset that sends down Michigan to the last in / last out?

Hi jncuse, Im anoldtimer and can't to figure out the last four in or out, if you get a chance could you explain it to me?

 

[orangefog]

Hi jncuse, Im anoldtimer and can't to figure out the last four in or out, if you get a chance could you explain it to me?

Annnnnnd...if you will, jncuse, please provide your answer in the form a catchy song, like in one of the kid's shows. I miss when my kids were little. I learned the order of the planets from Blue's Clues.

 

[jncuse]

Hi jncuse, Im anoldtimer and can't to figure out the last four in or out, if you get a chance could you explain it to me?

No prob. These are not personal assessments, or the assessments of any one person out there.

I am using the bracket matrix website for where the teams are seeded: It's a consolidation of all the brackets that are out there.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

The last 4 in, would the the last 4 of the 32 at large bids in the tournament. If you look at the bracket matrix they can be identified as the last 4 teams that are not bolded (look at the 11/12 line). Not every person that is doing the bracket has them in, but they are getting more at large bids than then next group.

The last 4 out (or last 8 out).. They are at the bottom of the matrix. Some people have them in, but the majority do not.

 

[pearl31]

though they've pretty much fallen off the bubble, it was also good last night that Boise St ended up losing (in last-second controversial fashion, no less)

 

[jncuse]

Annnnnnd...if you will, jncuse, please provide your answer in the form a catchy song, like in one of the kid's shows. I miss when my kids were little. I learned the order of the planets from Blue's Clues.

No song, but I found a very short child story endorsed by the NCAA called "Roy, Johnny and Coach K are OK"


It was a beautiful March day in Kansas. Every year a group of men would meet to determine who has been good and bad. Who has been nice and will be asked to play ? And what about the monster -- a big ugly Orange monster called Jimmy.

Jimmy was bad. He played the game differently and that made it hard for others. He was mean to people who talked to him. Not only was Jimmy naughty but so were his friends - his friends that lived in igloos and were nasty snow monsters. They smoked and were bad little boys.

But this year the men were brave. They all stood up and made sure only good people were allowed to play. With all their energy they fought off the Orange monsters from the North until they went away.

All the kids in town could rejoice as the world was saved. After all Roy, Johnny, and Coach K were OK.