Using Baylor to predict SU...

[A Clockwork Orange]

I just started going through the numbers a little bit, and thought it was very interesting that Baylor didn't do very well the first two years Briles was coach. Based on the games in the second half of his second season, it didn't look like there was much room for optimism either.

I looked at total wins and winning percentage in three different increments. 10 years prior to Briles, 5 years prior, and then three years prior (which would correlate with the Shafer era here at SU). Here's what it looks like:

10 years
Baylor: 31-92 25% WP
Orange: 49-85 37% WP
5 years
Baylor: 18-40 31% WP
Orange:27-35 44% WP
3 years
Baylor: 12-23 34%
Orange: 14-23 38%

Baylor is the worse team across all three levels, but they are essentially equal the three years prior to Babers and Briles showing up to their respective programs.

Recruiting rankings also show some interesting finds. According to 247, Baylor's composite ranking the three years prior to Briles showing up are:

Baylor
2005: #69
2006: #54
2007: #77

Here's what SU looks like the three years prior to Babers taking over:

Syracuse
2013: #73 (12th in ACC)
2014: #50 (10th in ACC)
2015: #58 (13th in ACC)

Briles took over in '08 and his first three classes were ranked ('08 is a shortened year, like Babers was here):

Briles first three classes:
2008: #55 (9th in Big 12) This is the year he got RG III.
2009: #52 (10th in Big 12)
2010: #40 (8th in Big 12)

Overall, the classes prior to Briles and Babers aren't very different at all. Bottom of the barrel in their respective leagues, and not bringing in many four or five stars at all.

I wish I could say Briles made an immediate impact when he took over. The wins ticked up from three wins the previous year to four in Briles first year. His second year he also had four. The final four games of that year looked like this:

Baylor 40 Mizzou 32 WIN
Baylor 14 Texas 47 LOSS
Baylor 3 Texas A&M 38 LOSS
Baylor 13 Texas Tech 20 LOSS

1-3, and not really the high scoring offense everyone expects immediately from Babers. In 2010, Baylor went 7-6, still not a magnificent record, but they were making progress.

All this to say, I'm not sure we're going to see any type of huge step up in the win column for a couple of years. It will probably be a rocky road, and frankly I expect to see quite a few blowouts against the better teams in our league in the next couple of years. Running this type of offense (if it's not going well) can lead to a lot of beat downs.

I'd like to see us in a bowl in year 2 (hopefully), and competing against the better teams in our league by year 3 and year 4. That's the trajectory Baylor took (though their bowl breakthrough was year 3), and our situations (as I've shown above) are quite similar. If Babers is the real deal, I'd expect to see the same thing.

 

[orangeinjersey]

RG3. You need a game changer.

 

[SoBristol]

Interesting data points.
I continue to believe that 2016 depends a lot on Dungey's ability to stay away from injury, on whether there are late additions at DE, and whether Brian Ward can fix a leaky and undersized secondary. That amounts to good luck at the key QB spot and smart late moves to upgrade talent.
Longer term, years 3 etc, it is all about recruiting.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

RG3. You need a game changer.

I think we may have one on our roster already!

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

Now lets take a look at Baylor's scoring before and after Briles arrival.

Baylor Before Briles
2005: 23 PPG
2006: 23 PPG
2007: 18 PPG

With Briles
2008: 27 PPG
2009: 21 PPG
2010: 31 PPG

For comparison's sake, lets look at SU's point output over the past three years:

Orange
2013: 23 PPG
2014: 17 PPG
2015: 27 PPG

If Babers could add nine points per game to SU's output, like Briles did in his first year, well... wow. That would be a 19 point increase in a two year period for SU. That would be nearly unprecedented. I think adding 4 to 5 points a game could be doable though. If he did add 9 points per game that would have put us at 26th in the country in 2015. Out of the top 26 teams in the country in scoring in 2015, only two had losing records. And those losing records were 6-7. All 26 made bowl games.

A 4 or 5 point increase would put us at right around 50th in the country. We were 77th in reality in 2015. How did that Briles guy do at Baylor after we stop tracking him in 2010? His team lead the nation in scoring this year at 48.1 PPG.

 

[cuse309]

Babers has been hinting along, sometime outright stating it, that it's going to take a couple of years, and that we'll likely, "Take a step backwards, before taking a step forward." He's been preaching patience, and he's right. The fan base can get awfully impatient after one loosing season.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

Babers has been hinting along, sometime outright stating it, that it's going to take a couple of years, and that we'll likely, "Take a step backwards, before taking a step forward." He's been preaching patience, and he's right. The fan base can get awfully impatient after one loosing season.

I think he knows this is different than Eastern Illinois or BGSU. This is very similar to what Briles took over at Baylor. I think he's up to the challenge.

 

[retro44]

Now lets take a look at Baylor's scoring before and after Briles arrival.

Baylor Before Briles
2005: 23 PPG
2006: 23 PPG
2007: 18 PPG

With Briles
2008: 27 PPG
2009: 21 PPG
2010: 31 PPG (RG III starts his freshman year)

For comparison's sake, lets look at SU's point output over the past three years:

Orange
2013: 23 PPG
2014: 17 PPG
2015: 27 PPG

If Babers could add nine point per game to SU's output, like Briles did in his first year, well... wow. That would be a 19 point increase in a two year period for SU. That would be nearly unprecedented. I think adding 4 to 5 points a game could be doable though. If he did add 9 points per game that would have put us at 26th in the country in 2015. Out of the top 26 teams in the country in scoring in 2015, only two had losing records. And those losing records were 6-7. All 26 made bowl games.

A 4 or 5 point increase would put us at right around 50th in the country. We were 77th in reality in 2015. How did that Briles guy do at Baylor after we stop tracking him in 2010? His team lead the nation in scoring this year at 48.1 PPG.

RG3 led Baylor as a freshmen in 2008 with 843 yards rushing.

Was not a 2010 recruit for Briles, he was 2008 4 star kid who rated out as no.216 in the top 300

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

RG3 led Baylor as a freshmen in 2008 with 843 yards rushing.

Was not a 2010 recruit for Briles, he was 2008 4 star kid who rated out as no.216 in the top 300

Ha! You're absolutely right, and I knew that. Blame having two kids under three years old in the house as I was trying to do this. As I was perusing the 247Sports site, I saw "Robert Griffin" as a four star recruit and thought, okay, that's when they snagged him. I didn't look at anything else. Turns out he was a 2010 OL recruit with the same name. Thanks for the heads up, will make the edit in my analysis.

 

[orangeinjersey]

Babers has been hinting along, sometime outright stating it, that it's going to take a couple of years, and that we'll likely, "Take a step backwards, before taking a step forward." He's been preaching patience, and he's right. The fan base can get awfully impatient after one loosing season.

I wouldnt necessarily take this as gospel. He is doing what i routinely do in situations at work. Under promise over deliver. Why make unrealistic claims, get everyones expectations high (i'm looking at you lock the gate, shut the door) and dig a deeper hole when you fail to reach them.

Babers says a step back before forward, and wins 5-6 games next year, then hes rocking and rolling.

 

[Ringostar57]

It took 2 things for Briles and Baylor to load up on 4 star athletes for 2016. Winning! and time. 7 or 8 years. They did pull in a few gems earlier but not until now have they been able to load up on the best that Texas has to offer. Maybe 3 things...can't forget about the palace of a stadium that they built.
It will take a few years to get it the way Babers envisions things.

 

[leftytg]

It took 2 things for Briles and Baylor to load up on 4 star athletes for 2016. Winning! and time. 7 or 8 years. They did pull in a few gems earlier but not until now have they been able to load up on the best that Texas has to offer. Maybe 3 things...can't forget about the palace of a stadium that they built.
It will take a few years to get it the way Babers envisions things.

3 things. Winning, time, and location location location.

Comparing to Baylor is useful in many ways. However, Baylor is located in the middle of Texas and Syracuse is in upstate New York. Baylor will always have a higher potential ceiling than Syracuse, simply due to proximity to 4-5 star recruits. Baylor's most recent class is made up of 19 Texas kids and 2 JUCO's from Kansas.

 

[cuse309]

3 things. Winning, time, and location location location.

Comparing to Baylor is useful in many ways. However, Baylor is located in the middle of Texas and Syracuse is in upstate New York. Baylor will always have a higher potential ceiling than Syracuse, simply due to proximity to 4-5 star recruits. Baylor's most recent class is made up of 19 Texas kids and 2 JUCO's from Kansas.

Yes, but if you look at the classes that comprised Baylors roster when they began winning 8-10 games, it was still made up of talent, (according to scoot, and rovals,) that was very similar to our talent level. Classes in the 40-70 range.

 

[CuseCrew08]

I think I remember that in the RGIII recruiting class they also picked up two future NFL WRs, Kendall Wright and another I can't remember.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

We're going bowling next season. It's happening.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

3 things. Winning, time, and location location location.

Comparing to Baylor is useful in many ways. However, Baylor is located in the middle of Texas and Syracuse is in upstate New York. Baylor will always have a higher potential ceiling than Syracuse, simply due to proximity to 4-5 star recruits. Baylor's most recent class is made up of 19 Texas kids and 2 JUCO's from Kansas.

I agree with most of that. I will say that 2012 was the first year Baylor had a top 30 class in the country. So Briles had recruited for 4 years before getting what I would consider a top rated class. What happened in those four years is that Baylor started to turn the corner. I believe SU has the ability to be a top 30 to top 35 recruiting power. If we get to that level, I think we'll be battling for 8 to 10 win seasons on a regular basis.

I don't think our recruiting ceiling is as high as Baylor's, but I do think we can maximize what we have here. If we win, that changes a lot of things. The interesting thing about this offense is that it doesn't need the cream of the crop to succeed. Briles knew they type of players he needed, and he got them. It's a system like the 2-3 zone, and if you can recruit exclusively for it, you can find lower rated players that will maximize their talent in the system. I think that will help us make up the recruiting ranking gap that we will always have against the top of the conference.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

We're going bowling next season. It's happening.

If he can get us into top 50 in scoring offense, I think we have a very good chance. These posts were more about not jumping off roofs if this team doesn't respond immediately to this offense. It will take a couple of years for it to click in the way Babers wants it to.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

I think I remember that in the RGIII recruiting class they also picked up two future NFL WRs, Kendall Wright and another I can't remember.

I believe Terrance Williams was the other.

 

[Jeepers]

I think the Texas thing is overblown re: Syracuse. If we have an exciting team and win, we'll be unique in the northeast. PSU is down. Ash is questionable at RU. WVU is on a b12 island. Uconn is in a lowly conference. Vtech has a new coach. We could easily be *the* team in the northeast if babers turns out as well as we expect.

 

[cuse309]

I agree with most of that. I will say that 2012 was the first year Baylor had a top 30 class in the country. So Briles had recruited for 4 years before getting what I would consider a top rated class. What happened in those four years is that Baylor started to turn the corner. I believe SU has the ability to be a top 30 to top 35 recruiting power. If we get to that level, I think we'll be battling for 8 to 10 win seasons on a regular basis.

I don't think our recruiting ceiling is as high as Baylor's, but I do think we can maximize what we have here. If we win, that changes a lot of things. The interesting thing about this offense is that it doesn't need the cream of the crop to succeed. Briles knew they type of players he needed, and he got them. It's a system like the 2-3 zone, and if you can recruit exclusively for it, you can find lower rated players that will maximize their talent in the system. I think that will help us make up the recruiting ranking gap that we will always have against the top of the conference.

So true. Hit the nail right on the head. That's why we are so fortunate to have gotten Babers, a man who has a scheme based offense to neutralize the superior pure talent of the Florida States, and Clemsons. It really can help level the playing field. We may not outrun, or outmuscle those teams, but we can level the playing field with a well thought out attack. We can outhink them.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

It's also worth nothing that Briles second season (the outlier in his upward trajectory) was hurt by RG III being knocked out for the season in their third game of the season. They were 2-1 to start off the season, and ended up relying on Nick Florence a third string true freshman QB for the rest of the season. They only won two more games for the rest of the season, and their PPG was way down compared to his first year. That injury on a team that still didn't have the depth it needed explains a lot.

 

[cuseincincy]

I think the Texas thing is overblown re: Syracuse. If we have an exciting team and win, we'll be unique in the northeast. PSU is down. Ash is questionable at RU. WVU is on a b12 island. Uconn is in a lowly conference. Vtech has a new coach. We could easily be *the* team in the northeast if babers turns out as well as we expect.

Texas thing overblown? From 2011-2015 there were approximately 660 3 star and above recruits in the "Northeast" (including NJ and PA). Texas had 1,337.

 

[CousCuse]

It's also worth nothing that Briles second season (the outlier in his upward trajectory) was hurt by RG III being knocked out for the season in their third game of the season. They were 2-1 to start off the season, and ended up relying on Nick Florence a third string true freshman QB for the rest of the season. They only won two more games for the rest of the season, and their PPG was way down compared to his first year. That injury on a team that still didn't have the depth it needed explains a lot.

Schedule[edit]
Date Time Opponent# Rank# Site TV Result Attendance
September 5 2:30 PM at Wake Forest* BB&T Field •Winston-Salem,North Carolina ABC W 24–21 27,905
September 19 4:00 PM Connecticut* Floyd Casey Stadium •Waco, TX L 22–30 40,147
September 26 6:00 PM Northwestern State* Floyd Casey Stadium •Waco, TX W 68–13 36,452
October 3 6:00 PM Kent State* Floyd Casey Stadium •Waco, TX FSN W 31–15 27,047
October 10 2:30 PM at #21 Oklahoma Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium •Norman,OK ABC L 7–33 84,478
October 17 6:00 PM at Iowa State Jack Trice Stadium •Ames, IA L 10–24 42,253
October 24 11:30 AM #12 Oklahoma State

Floyd Casey Stadium •Waco, TX Versus L 7–34 38,117
October 31 11:30 AM Nebraska Floyd Casey Stadium •Waco, TX Versus L 10–20 31,702
November 7 1:00 PM at Missouri Faurot Field •Columbia,MO W 40–32 65,298
November 14 11:00 AM #3 Texas Floyd Casey Stadium •Waco, TX FSN L 13–47 44,372
November 21 2:30 PM at Texas A&M Kyle Field• College Station,Texas(Battle of the Brazos) L 3–38 82,106
November 28 5:00 PM vs. Texas Tech Cowboys Stadium •Arlington,TX(Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Shootout) FSN L 13–20 71,964

 

[orangeinjersey]

Texas thing overblown? From 2011-2015 there were approximately 660 3 star and above recruits in the "Northeast" (including NJ and PA). Texas had 1,337.

I get their are twice as many, but also like 20x more schools mining that same talent in Texas no?

 

[leftytg]

My favorite part of that post was "Vtech has a new coach". Ummmmm...

:crazy: