Vegas Odds - 2017 NCAA Title

[EastCoast2]

Vegas, as opposed to lazy sports journalists, actually has skin in the game, and is usually more accurate than these preseason rankings. Some expected public behavior is priced into these lines, but I was pleasantly surprised to see our team, while unranked, or in the 20-25 range in most meaningless October polls, is thought of as the 3rd best team int he country by a consensus, unbiased group. Duke's odds are most likely inflated due to the hype and heavy money coming in on them. Syracuse is the team nobody is talking about, and look where we are:

+300 Duke
+1,000 Kentucky
+1,200 Syracuse
+1,200 Kansas
+1,500 Virginia
+1,500 UNC
+1,600 Oregon
+1,600 Wisconsin
+2,000 Arizona
+2,500 Villanova
+3,000 Louisville
+3,000 Indiana
+3,000 UConn
+5,000 Xavier
+5,000 Utah

 

[Jack Hall]

Look at the acc teams, just scary

 

[SUfaninAZ]

I got mine in at 28/1 through Ceasers last week

 

[HoustonCuse]

I don't know how to read this. Does it mean Duke is 4x more likely to win it than we are?

 

[Scotch]

Vegas, as opposed to lazy sports journalists, actually has skin in the game, and is usually more accurate than these preseason rankings. Some expected public behavior is priced into these lines, but I was pleasantly surprised to see our team, while unranked, or in the 20-25 range in most meaningless October polls, is thought of as the 3rd best team int he country by a consensus, unbiased group. Duke's odds are most likely inflated due to the hype and heavy money coming in on them. Syracuse is the team nobody is talking about, and look where we are:

+300 Duke
+1,000 Kentucky
+1,200 Syracuse
+1,200 Kansas
+1,500 Virginia
+1,500 UNC
+1,600 Oregon
+1,600 Wisconsin
+2,000 Arizona
+2,500 Villanova
+3,000 Louisville
+3,000 Indiana
+3,000 UConn
+5,000 Xavier
+5,000 Utah

Great find. This is so telling. We are in for a fun season.

 

[cusetown1]

I don't know how to read this. Does it mean Duke is 4x more likely to win it than we are?

It means dukes got a lot of juice flowing their way. Which means don't bet them (refer to the Golden State rule ). We are in a perfect position .

 

[EastCoast2]

It means dukes got a lot of juice flowing their way. Which means don't bet them (refer to the Golden State rule ). We are in a perfect position .

Yup. It means the implied probability* of Duke winning is 100/(100+300), or 1 in 4, or 25%. SU is 1/13, or 7.7%.
*If you aggregate all of the implied probabilities from the set, you get a number significantly greater than 100%. This is how Vegas makes money > 99% of the time.

 

[Toga]

And since Vegas bakes public opinion into the odds, it means the professional odds makers probably consider us the #2 team in the country. I laugh at a 15-20 ranking!

 

[cuseattle]

Yup. It means the implied probability* of Duke winning is 100/(100+300), or 1 in 4, or 25%. SU is 1/13, or 7.7%.
*If you aggregate all of the implied probabilities from the set, you get a number significantly greater than 100%. This is how Vegas makes money > 99% of the time.

Great explanation.

 

[Todoubled23]

Oh my god. I get way too giddy about stuff like this. But hey...let's keep this quiet guys...

 

[PoppyHart]

Yup. It means the implied probability* of Duke winning is 100/(100+300), or 1 in 4, or 25%. SU is 1/13, or 7.7%.
*If you aggregate all of the implied probabilities from the set, you get a number significantly greater than 100%. This is how Vegas makes money > 99% of the time.

Yep, there is no stupider bet in the world than a futures bet. Carry it out to 40 teams and the implied odds look comically worse. I feel sorry for the folks who even look at these. But the whole concept of pay me now, I may pay you later, was Warren Buffett's not-so-secret sauce.

 

[asj410]

Oh my god. I get way too giddy about stuff like this. But hey...let's keep this quiet guys...

Same here! And I also really want us to come in under the radar so we can blow up and burst onto the scene like the '09-10 team did. I'd prefer the team didn't go into the season with all of these huge expectations weighing on them. Right now, it feels like SU and the fan base are the only ones who know the team could be really, really good this year

 

[jordoo]

I'm not surprised our Vegas odds are so much better than our national rankings are. Its just the way it goes. I'm actually very interested in seeing how the ACC coaches vote in their preseason meetings. The coaches are going to give JB's comments a lot of weight and really look at what we have.

 

[br801]

Yup. It means the implied probability* of Duke winning is 100/(100+300), or 1 in 4, or 25%. SU is 1/13, or 7.7%.
*If you aggregate all of the implied probabilities from the set, you get a number significantly greater than 100%. This is how Vegas makes money > 99% of the time.

So putting it in horse racing terms, Duke is the 3-1 favorite to win the NCAAT, Kentucky is the 10-1 second choice, SU is 12-1, UNC is 15-1, etc.

 

[QUSE]

That top 4 would make the best final four matchups ever

 

[cusetown1]

it is pretty funny that Vegas is making the Parish's, Lindys, Dausters,Blue Ribbons of the world look pretty stupid.

 

[osullfam]

14th most likely per this book from Oct 11:

Updated 2017 NCAA title odds

 

[kirbivore]

anyone want to form a betting syndicate to bet on Cuse this year?

Bet you don't know these gambling facts about the Super Bowl | SportsDay

Golfer Phil Mickelson formed a betting syndicate in 2000 that placed a preseason wager of $20,000 on the Baltimore Ravens, who were 22-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. Baltimore smashed the New York Giants, 34-7, in January 2001. The payout? A reported $560,000.

"The year before they'd finished the season at 6-2, barely missing the playoffs," Mickelson explained his reasoning in USA Today. "I liked their off-season player acquisitions."

Mickelson reportedly won big later the same year betting on Arizona to win the World Series.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

anyone want to form a betting syndicate to bet on Cuse this year?

Bet you don't know these gambling facts about the Super Bowl | SportsDay

Golfer Phil Mickelson formed a betting syndicate in 2000 that placed a preseason wager of $20,000 on the Baltimore Ravens, who were 22-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. Baltimore smashed the New York Giants, 34-7, in January 2001. The payout? A reported $560,000.

"The year before they'd finished the season at 6-2, barely missing the playoffs," Mickelson explained his reasoning in USA Today. "I liked their off-season player acquisitions."

Mickelson reportedly won big later the same year betting on Arizona to win the World Series.

I love how gamblers love to talk about their winnings. How many like to talk about their losses.
Phil Mickelson’s Gambling Linked to Second Criminal Case

 

[cuserulesall]

When you cruise on out to Phoenix , I can house 40 Cuse fans in there own home for 150.00 $ a week ! 90,000 gallon pool heated , 15 person size Hot Tub , you can even go back to the 80's ! Large Cuse Clubhouse ! Oh Yea !

 

[Day2]

I got mine in at 28/1 through Ceasers last week

I got 35/1 in August.

 

[Shenexon]

I love how gamblers love to talk about their winnings. How many like to talk about their losses.
Phil Mickelson’s Gambling Linked to Second Criminal Case

The summer I graduated from high school, I lost my entire paycheck from bagging groceries to a carnie at our local county fair. I think it was $33 but I was very angry at myself for being so stupid. I think I made $2.00 an hour and worked hard. Other than 50/50's at fundraisers, I've never really gambled since. I played penny-ante poker with my dad & brothers, but never lost or made more than a few bucks. I gave scratch-offs as gifts but never went to Vegas, Reno, or Atlantic City because I was still angry about that $33. I know people that make money gambling and almost wish I could, but I figure that $33 has saved me a year's wages over time. I'd never be a wise gambler...

 

[EastCoast2]

Updated 2017 title odds. Syracuse tied 2nd best odds with Kansas & Kentucky.

 

[two3zone]

When you cruise on out to Phoenix , I can house 40 Cuse fans in there own home for 150.00 $ a week ! 90,000 gallon pool heated , 15 person size Hot Tub , you can even go back to the 80's ! Large Cuse Clubhouse ! Oh Yea !

Count me down for one! Not a long drive at all..

 

[STEVEHOLT]

it is pretty funny that Vegas is making the Parish's, Lindys, Dausters,Blue Ribbons of the world look pretty stupid.

The big difference between the blow hards and Vegas is that the vegas guys actually care about doing a good job.