What will it take us to win the NCAA tournament? | Syracusefan.com

What will it take us to win the NCAA tournament?

orange2win

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Some folks here take umbrage at the notion that the team with the most MBA Pros wins the tournament nearly every year. They think it is more complicated than that.

I have in front of me 20 years of finals data going back to 1996. On only 3 occasions has the team with the most NBA pros not won! The three teams pulling an upset were: - 2014 U Conn - 2003 SU - 1999 UConn. It may have happened again yesterday, but we will not know for a year or two.

How many NBA Pros on average does it take to win the NCAA tournament? Going back even further to 1989, it computes to 4.4 Pros/team. That's a lot. Think of the last SU team to meet this quota.

By the way, the most NBA Pros on any team was Duke 1992 with 8.
 
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We just had 2 5th year seniors, a 4th year jr, and a true jr in the starting lineup. What are you talking about?

And look at all of the guys who left early, Ennis,Grant, Cmc, possibly Mal.
 
And look at all of the guys who left early, Ennis,Grant, Cmc, possibly Mal.

Yep, every team has that.

North Carolina's team this year could have had JP Tokoto
Virginia - Justin Anderson
Kansas - Kelly Oubre

Yep, Oklahoma and Nova had everyone stay...and that's nice, but it's simply not realistic to expect.
 
1996 UK didn't have more than that Duke team?

Anyway, good analysis but I think it is not completely appropriate in modern college bb. There's seemingly no way to have 4+ pro's on a team anymore at the same time unless you are UK, and even then it has proven difficult to shape a mob like that into a champion within a single season (which is all you get) no matter how good they are individually.
 
Didn't Villanova just disprove that notion? I'd be surprised if there's more than one NBA player on that roster.

Years ago Wright decided against recruiting one-and-done type recruits and they just won the national title.
 
This is only the Finals? There must've been some years where it was a tie.
 
Some folks here take umbrage at the notion that the team with the most MBA Pros wins the tournament nearly every year. They think it is more complicated than that.

I have in front of me 20 years of finals data going back to 1996. On only 3 occasions has the team with the most NBA pros not won! The three teams pulling an upset were: - 2014 U Conn - 2003 SU - 1999 UConn. It may have happened again yesterday, but we will not know for a year or two.

How many NBA Pros on average does it take to win the NCAA tournament? Going back even further to 1989, it computes to 4.4 Pros/team. That's a lot. Think of the last SU team to meet this quota.

By the way, the most NBA Pros on any team was Duke 1992 with 8.
Actually 9 guys from Kentucky's '96 team made it to the NBA, including 4 starters.
 
Some folks here take umbrage at the notion that the team with the most MBA Pros wins the tournament nearly every year. They think it is more complicated than that.

I have in front of me 20 years of finals data going back to 1996. On only 3 occasions has the team with the most NBA pros not won! The three teams pulling an upset were: - 2014 U Conn - 2003 SU - 1999 UConn. It may have happened again yesterday, but we will not know for a year or two.

How many NBA Pros on average does it take to win the NCAA tournament? Going back even further to 1989, it computes to 4.4 Pros/team. That's a lot. Think of the last SU team to meet this quota.

By the way, the most NBA Pros on any team was Duke 1992 with 8.

It will take a balanced team with significant talent at the college level that plays as a team, with a bit of depth . A good bounce here and there and a seeding that gives decent match-ups always helps.
 
Years ago Wright decided against recruiting one-and-done type recruits and they just won the national title.

Jalen Brunson would disagree. I don't know if he'll ultimately leave or return, but he was the #1 pg in the country going into his senior year according to some publications...also a McDonald's All America etc. certainly a guy who was a danger of being an early departure at the time he was being recruited.

Jay Wright hasn't had those types of guys because they haven't had success in landing them, not because he wouldn't take them if they were interested in coming.
 
We need two forwards who can score and a center who can protect the rim.
 
Jay Wright hasn't had those types of guys because they haven't had success in landing them, not because he wouldn't take them if they were interested in coming.
Brunson was Nova's first five-star since Mouphtao Yarou (2009). And even Brunson isn't listed on any mock draft boards right now.

Jon Rothstein was on Rome today saying since the 2009 Final Four they no longer recruit the Top 10 type of players and went back to their roots as a developmental program. It seems to be working for them.
 
It would take a better half-court offensive design combined with players possessing stronger fundamental skills.

The ability to create better scoring opportunities more consistently against the toughest teams would allow our defense to be even more potent. If we scored more, other teams would be forced to produce more points. That's tough to do when we have a Final Four defense like we did in 2013 and in the tournament this season (though our press was really as important this year in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 as the zone). Unfortunately, our half-court offenses were inconsistent at best both seasons, and our lack of execution hurt us against teams with really good talent.

Our heavy reliance on random ball screens as our main offensive weapon produces poor spacing, little ball movement, and little off-ball player movement. This makes defending us easy, especially for the solid-to-outstanding defensive teams that are likely to populate the Final Four most seasons. When teams take away our ball-screen offense, we essentially counter with the pin-down screen plays and the Double Fist (double high ball screen) plays. Those plays are fine, but if a defense takes away the initial option(s) on them, we are right back to the random ball screens. The defense wins.

An offense with better spacing, more actions (back screens, flare screens, backdoor cuts, zipper cuts), and an actual inside presence (post-ups) that can be adapted for year-to-year personnel changes would help. For example, Villanova runs a 4-out 1-in motion that stresses ball screens and dribble penetration, but also includes backdoor cuts, screening away for teammates, post-ups with "rip" action (two basket cuts in succession with the other two players filling behind the cuts), and high-low action. The offense builds all of this into the design, and players are taught to "take their lane" based on what the defense takes away. Watching Nova's players execute it makes me salivate at the thought of what G, Malachi, Trevor, and Lydon could do in it.

Do we have to run Villanova's offense? No. But we need an offense that works in some way like theirs: one that uses a series of actions that allows our players to take advantage of defenses no matter how they play. Bill Self's High-Low Offense is another example of such an offense, though dribble penetration can be limited in it. My favorite multifaceted offense (other than Nova's) is one that would be tough to run in college because it takes a full year for players to really get comfortable running it: Gregg Popovich's Motion. It is my favorite because, as an option-based motion, defenses can't take away all of the options once players learn them. The offense dictates the action based on how the defense attempts to do so.

My point is that these offenses exist, and teams can be/have been successful in the half-court running them. Despite this, our half-court offense continues to lack rhythm and structure season to season. As much as I respect him, Coach Boeheim has always preferred the "simple" on offense, sometimes to the detriment of the "good." His philosophy seems even more pronounced the last few seasons. However, coaches can teach an offense with multiple actions that is still built on simple, fundamental concepts.

Still, to our Hall-of-Famer's credit, we have made two Final Fours since 2013 in spite of these offensive woes. Our coaching and defense can help us get to that level again. Unfortunately, a defense alone can't win a title. A better offense is the key to getting to the next level. A better offense with skilled players running it, that is.
 
Didn't Villanova just disprove that notion? I'd be surprised if there's more than one NBA player on that roster.

Years ago Wright decided against recruiting one-and-done type recruits and they just won the national title.

Agreed. Not to mention, there's more than one way to skin a cat. Expecting us to emulate the Kentucky model isn't realistic. But there are other ways we can stock the roster--and have--to field some of the best teams in college basketball in recent years.
 
Brunson was Nova's first five-star since Mouphtao Yarou (2009). And even Brunson isn't listed on any mock draft boards right now.

Jon Rothstein was on Rome today saying since the 2009 Final Four they no longer recruit the Top 10 type of players and went back to their roots as a developmental program. It seems to be working for them.


Omari Spellman is signed to Nova and is a 6'9" PF that ESPN ranks as a 5 star and the 16th player in the 2016 class.

Brunson was the 16th ranked player in the 2015 class and also a 5 star.

That's a pretty fine line to draw if they're truly avoiding the top 10 players, but happen to have the 16th player in each of the last two classes.

Not saying Rothstein didn't say it, I just don't think it rings true.
 
Some folks here take umbrage at the notion that the team with the most MBA Pros wins the tournament nearly every year. They think it is more complicated than that.

I have in front of me 20 years of finals data going back to 1996. On only 3 occasions has the team with the most NBA pros not won! The three teams pulling an upset were: - 2014 U Conn - 2003 SU - 1999 UConn. It may have happened again yesterday, but we will not know for a year or two.

How many NBA Pros on average does it take to win the NCAA tournament? Going back even further to 1989, it computes to 4.4 Pros/team. That's a lot. Think of the last SU team to meet this quota.

By the way, the most NBA Pros on any team was Duke 1992 with 8.

I've heard it said that you need 3 (or more) NBA players to have a legit chance.
We did it with 2 in '03. But GMac was a superb college guard, just not built for the Pros.

We need a legit PG, not a SG playing point.
We also need a do-it-all scoring forward.
And a rim protector is always a plus for our D.

And some luck.
 
1996 UK didn't have more than that Duke team?

Anyway, good analysis but I think it is not completely appropriate in modern college bb. There's seemingly no way to have 4+ pro's on a team anymore at the same time unless you are UK, and even then it has proven difficult to shape a mob like that into a champion within a single season (which is all you get) no matter how good they are individually.

Yes you are correct. I had that 1996 Kentucky team with 7. Double checked and it should be 8. Those were 8 solid NBA pros - Nazr Mohammed is still playing I think - up against John Wallace, the only SU pro. If SU had managed to win that game, it would have been a massive upset. Somebody noted the number should be 9. Could be right, if another player was drafted and did not play.

Don't agree with your comment "no way to have 4+ pro's on a team anymore" Here are the numbers for the last decade.

2006 - Florida 5
2007 - Florida 6
2008 - Kansas 6
2009 - North Carolina 5
2010 - Duke 6
2011 - Connecticut 3
2012 - Kentucky 6
2013 - Louisville 4
2014 - Connecticut 1
2015 - Duke 3

That is an average of 5.0/yr. Not going down. As for 2016, UNC had 6 McDAAs and probably a similar number will turn out to be NBA Pros. Nova - we have to wait and see.
 
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I've heard it said that you need 3 (or more) NBA players to have a legit chance.
We did it with 2 in '03. But GMac was a superb college guard, just not built for the Pros.

We need a legit PG, not a SG playing point.
We also need a do-it-all scoring forward.
And a rim protector is always a plus for our D.

And some luck.

Yes it can be done with less than 4. That amazing 2014 U Conn team had the lowest ever with just 1 (Shabazz Napier), up against 5 on the UK team. Probably the biggest upset.

Yes we did it in 2003 with just 2, but one of them was Carmelo.
 

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