where can we finish

[upperdeck]

Assuming we have to win out to be in the bubble talk

12-8

Wake loses to Duke and VT on the road and they finish 12-8
Clemson loses to SU/Wake 11-9
Pitt loses to Clemson and nc state 11-9
nc st loses at Duke and to UNC 11-9
VT beats Wake and loses to SU and wins out 11-9

crazy to be #5 in the ACC and not even on the bubble. Wake a bad week away from 11-9 as well and we would be 4th..

can we play 4 good games in a row to make Clemson matter.

 

[AlaskaSU]

4 ACC wins in a row is very unlikely. Although ESPN has us as a clear favorite over NotreDame the talent levels in the middle of the pack are not all that different. If we have 4 games each with a 50 50 chance of winning, our chances of winning 4 in a row is a bit over 4%. In addition, we lack a superstar who can rise up and carry the team on it's back for 4 games.

Our best hope within reason to get inside the bubble is to go 3 and 1 with a win over Clemson followed by two wins in the ACC tourney.

 

[Red2003]

4 ACC wins in a row is very unlikely. Although ESPN has us as a clear favorite over NotreDame the talent levels in the middle of the pack are not all that different. If we have 4 games each with a 50 50 chance of winning, our chances of winning 4 in a row is a bit over 4%. In addition, we lack a superstar who can rise up and carry the team on it's back for 4 games.

Our best hope within reason to get inside the bubble is to go 3 and 1 with a win over Clemson followed by two wins in the ACC tourney.

ESPN is just about the worst predictor. Considering Va Tech has only won 1 road game all year and then next up is Louisville. None of the next 3 games will be tossups but shouldn't be overlooked as easy games.

Clemson we will be heavy underdogs on the road. ND and Louisville are must win games, we can't afford another recent black eye on the resume, already having Ga Tech. Losing to another cellar ACC team puts us in must win ACCT territory. Clemson win would be huge, but that's a terrible matchup for us.

The best path is 11-9 in ACC (20 wins / Win next 3 and loss to Clemson) and hoping that's enough for a ACCT 6-7 Seed, then it's all about matchups the next 2-3 nights.

 

[Nicknack]

4 ACC wins in a row is very unlikely. Although ESPN has us as a clear favorite over NotreDame the talent levels in the middle of the pack are not all that different. If we have 4 games each with a 50 50 chance of winning, our chances of winning 4 in a row is a bit over 4%. In addition, we lack a superstar who can rise up and carry the team on it's back for 4 games.

Our best hope within reason to get inside the bubble is to go 3 and 1 with a win over Clemson followed by two wins in the ACC tourney.

Yep, that's been my hope prior to the Gtech loss, that we get to 20 wins, 11-9 conference, and win two in the acc tourney. Maybe, just maybe that would be enough.

 

[orangenauburn]

Go 5-2 next seven

3-1 regular season
2-1 ACCT

No way we are kept out at 22-12

 

[Cuse House]

I believe we still have a path to the double bye. It’s not probable, but that’s why the games are played.

 

[Eric15]

crazy to be #5 in the ACC and not even on the bubble. Wake a bad week away from 11-9 as well and we would be 4th..

UVA is #3 in the ACC right now, and they're in the field, but not by much.

 

[upperdeck]

4 ACC wins in a row is very unlikely. Although ESPN has us as a clear favorite over NotreDame the talent levels in the middle of the pack are not all that different. If we have 4 games each with a 50 50 chance of winning, our chances of winning 4 in a row is a bit over 4%. In addition, we lack a superstar who can rise up and carry the team on it's back for 4 games.

Our best hope within reason to get inside the bubble is to go 3 and 1 with a win over Clemson followed by two wins in the ACC tourney.

I don't think it will happen.. Its just the path to get there is playing 1 good game and not barfing in the 3 others with a team that seems to like to play poorly way too often.

 

[Red2003]

Go 5-2 next seven

3-1 regular season
2-1 ACCT

No way we are kept out at 22-12

Don't forget a UNC win in there as well. It's just 1 win but let's be real, the Committee loves UNC. We beat UNC by 7, really it should've been more, Only UConn has beat them by more points this year.

Hopefully UNC wins out and is sitting at a 1 Seed come Selection Sunday.

That helps the eye test more than people think about.

 

[Wrinkle]

We certainly could win out. Not saying we will, but it's certainly a possibility. We also own two critical sweeps over Pitt and NC State -- we are not in hopeless position

 

[Dmcnabbrules]

Little worried when I opened this thread.

 

[Red2003]

Let's talk about our terrible Q2 and Q3 losses we have too, BC and Ga Tech on the road and FSU at home. Any of those 3 teams are capable of beating other bubble and tourney teams. Those are decent teams regardless of what the Net says in comparison to the other teams sitting at the cellar of their respective conferences.

The mid-bottom of the ACC is just so much farther ahead of the Big East / Big 12 / Mountain West. Miami was in the final 4 last year and is sitting at 12th right now.

 

[syrBossHogg]

UVA is #3 in the ACC right now, and they're in the field, but not by much.

The fact we lost to UVA and WF by a combined 51 points and they're in the bubble picture just shows how much of a hill we have to climb.

 

[Cuse181]

Assuming we have to win out to be in the bubble talk

12-8

Wake loses to Duke and VT on the road and they finish 12-8
Clemson loses to SU/Wake 11-9
Pitt loses to Clemson and nc state 11-9
nc st loses at Duke and to UNC 11-9
VT beats Wake and loses to SU and wins out 11-9

crazy to be #5 in the ACC and not even on the bubble. Wake a bad week away from 11-9 as well and we would be 4th..

can we play 4 good games in a row to make Clemson matter.

Technically they have a non-zero chance to finish as high as 3rd and as low as 13, according to team rankings, the most likely spots are 8, 9, 7, all around 20% chance

 

[Red2003]

The fact we lost to UVA and WF by a combined 51 points and they're in the bubble picture just shows how much of a hill we have to climb.

This comment is the exact reason the Net is a joke and 2 losses. Have you seen some of the blowouts Virginia took on the road this year. 34 at Va tech just a few days ago. 22 point loss to ND. Wake is 2-7 away from home.

 

[pwong]

The fact we lost to UVA and WF by a combined 51 points and they're in the bubble picture just shows how much of a hill we have to climb.

Add in Gonzaga too

 

[Red2003]

Add in Gonzaga too

This was in November with a team of 23 year olds against 19 year olds.

 

[pwong]

This was in November with a team of 23 year olds against 19 year olds.

Was your exercise not head to head comparisons against current bubbleish teams that are projected in the field?

 

[Red2003]

Was your exercise not head to head comparisons against current bubbleish teams that are projected in the field?

I didn’t start it. Gonzaga is a great example tho. They have a road Win at Kentucky recently. This is an 18-8 Kentucky team that just lost to LSU by the way.

Is that 1 win worth a 22 in the net because the only other win that’s close to relevant is Cuse in November 24 hours after we caught Tennessee.

We’re not talking 30 net spots we’re talking a 60 spot difference from Gonzaga to Cuse. Just for 2 wins.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

It seems like the kiss of death to be optimistic coming off wins but the next 3 games realistically couldn't be any easier or more winnable. And the scheduling past that could help us IE teams around us lose last weekend when we are on a bye and then we get an easy first game in the ACCT.

We really want to be the last team standing in the ACCT of us Pitt Wake and Clemson though.