Winning Plays- Wake Forest

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. . 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

THE WAKE FOREST GAME

For this game, which was so different in the first half than the second, I’m going to mark the halftime point in each category with brackets : ] [

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: WF 20, WF 25, WF 25, WE 25, WF 25, WF 25] [WF 30, WF 24
Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 1 (6-0 first half 1-1 second half)
P: 49 to WF 24, 51 to WF 26 FUMBLE] [28 to WF 17
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 0 (2-0 first, 1-0 second)
FG: No Good from 45, Good from 30] [Good from 47, No Good from 51
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 2 (1-1 in each half)
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good] [none
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 0 (5-0, 0-0)
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 17 Wake Forest 3 (14-1, 3-2)

1r: 3, 4, 0, 1(2)] [1, 4, 4, 1, 5, 5
Total: Syracuse 6-4 Wake Forest (2-2, 4-2)
1p: 9, 11, I, 11, 13, I, I, I, 7, 9, 21, 16, -2(S), 5, 16, 6, 0, I, I, 18TD] [3, I, 8, I, I, -1, 5(S), 11, 7, I, Interception, 20, 13, 7
Total: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 15 (12-8, 7-7)
First Down Total: Syracuse 25 Wake Forest 19 (14-10, 11-9)
2r: 6, 47(7), 1, 2, 3(3), 1TD, -4] [16(6), 2, -1
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 5 (4-3, 1-2)
2p: 36(1), I, 7(6), I, I, 30(12), 17(5), I, I, 13] [I, 7(S), I, 2, 11(6), 13(9), I, Interception, I, 13(3), I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Wake Forest 13 (5-5, 4-8)
Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 Wake Forest 18 (9-8, 5-10)
3r: 0, 2(4), 3(1)] [12(9), 3(2), -3
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 3 (1-2, 2-1)
3p: 19TD, I, 5(S), I, 9(14), -1] [I, I, 11(6), I, 17(10), -7(S)
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 8 (2-4, 2-4)
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 11 (3-6, 4-5)
4r: 43TD] [none
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0 (1-0, 0-0)
4p: 26(5), 13(4-S)] [I, 6
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 2 (2-0, 0-2)
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 2 (3-0, 0-2)

Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Wake Forest 12 (8-7, 7-5)
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 34 Wake Forest 38 (21-17, 13-21)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 49 Wake Forest 50 (29-24, 20-26)

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, +2] [-5, +10 Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 1 (2-1, 1-0)

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 69 Wake Forest 54 (45-26, 24-28)

Comments: There wasn’t a huge difference between the number of successful plays from scrimmage we had in the 38 point first half and the 5 point second half. Three things produce points on offense: acquiring yards, (we had 425 in the first half and 196 in the second but 196 yards in a half isn’t bad); getting explosive plays, (we had 6 plays of 20 yards or more in the first half plus the fumbled punt we recovered; 1 in the second half plus the PAT return), an timeliness: you’ve got to run the good plays together to have a successful drive, (in 7 second half possessions we got at least one first down in 5 of them but all we got was a field goal: we punted once, missed a field goal and threw two interceptions). We got going but we didn’t get big plays or keep going in that second half.


When Wake Forest had the ball:

KO: SU 17, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25] [SU 25, SU 25, SU 38, SU 36, SU 25, SU 32, SU 30
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 7 (0-4 in first half, 4-3 in second half)
P: 25 to SU 44, 46 to SU 23, 38 to SU 27, 34 to SU 22] [none
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 1 (3-1, 0-0)
FG: Good from 41] [Good from 43, Good from 30
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 3 (0-1, 0-2)
XP: Good, Good, Good] [Good, Blocked & returned for 2pts, Good, Good. Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 6 (0-3, 1-3)
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 17 (3-9, 5-8)

1r: 3, 0, 3TD, 2, 15, 1, 3TD, 9, 10, 9, 5, 8] [14, 11, 7, 15, 3(20), -1, 9, 4, 3, -1, -2V
Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 15 (4-8, 4-7)
1p: 22, 8, 12, 19(S), 31TD, I, -2, 7, I, I, 44] [16, I, I, I, 18, -2(S), 9, 19TD, I, I
Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 11 (4-7, 6-4)
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 Wake Forest 26 (8-15, 10-11)
2r: 2(2), 3(9), 6(1), 3, 3(1), 3, (3(5), 6] [ 3, 4, 15, 3, 2(1), 3(6), 8(7)
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 10 (3-5, 2-5)
2p: 0(S), I, 22(8), 11, -1] [16(17), 6(8), 16(17), 4, 4(20), 6TD
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 6 (3-2, 2-4)
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 16 (6-7, 4-9)
3r: 11(6), 3(4)] [ 1(7), 9TD, 1(2), 5(6), 76TD
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 3 (1-1, 3-2)
3p: 30(12), 20(10), I, I, I, 2(2)] [21(6), 21(16), I
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 5 (3-3, 1-2)
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 8 (4-4, 4-4)
4r: none] [23(1), 29TD
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 2 (0-0, 0-2)
4p: none] [none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0 (0-0, 0-0)
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 2 (0-0, 0-2)

Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Wake Forest 30 (8-14, 9-16)
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 22 (10-12, 9-10)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 36 Wake Forest 52 (18-26, 18-26)

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, -5, -5] [-5, -10, +5, -10 Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 2 (3-1. 4-1)

Game total when Wake Forest had the ball: Syracuse 51 Wake Forest 71

Overall game total: Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125

Comments: We were equally bad from scrimmage in each half- exactly: 18 wins, 26 losses. Wake matched us with 6 explosive plays, (20 yards or more), in the first half but added 4 more in the second half. They scored on all 7 second half possessions: 5TDs and 2 field goals.

This was a -5 gave, (we lost five more plays than we won) which makes it comparable to these games since 2011:
2011 Connecticut 84-86 = -2 Syracuse lost 21-28
2011 Pittsburgh 87-93 = -6 Syracuse lost 20-33
2012 Southern California 92-98 = -6 Syracuse lost 29-42
2012 Missouri 92-98 = -6 Syracuse won 31-27
2014 Boston College 72-78 = -6 Syracuse lost 7-28
2015 Central Michigan 84-91 = -7 Syracuse won 30-27
2015 Louisiana State 84-89 = -5 Syracuse lost 24-34
2016 Connecticut 91-99 = -8 Syracuse won 31-24
2017 Clemson 95-97 = -2 Syracuse won 27-24
2017 Wake Forest 120-125 = -5 Syracuse lost 43-64

A game close in plays could have many possible results.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 8-2 + 5-1 + 5-2 + 3-2 + 2-2 + 5-1 +3-3 + 4-2 + 4-1 + 7-1 = 46-17
P: 3-0 + 4-1 + 7-0 + 6-1 + 3-1 + 4-1 +2-2 + 1-2 + 4-2 + 3-0 = 37-10
FG: 3-1 + 3-1 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 +2-0 + 4-0 + 1-2 + 2-2 = 21-7
XP: 5-1 + 2-0 + 5-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 +3-0 + 1-0 + 3-0 + 5-0 = 33-1
Kicking plays total: 19-4 + 14-3 + 19-2 + 13-3 + 9-4 + 14-2 + 10-5 + 10-4 + 12-5 + 17-3 = 137-35

1r: 11-11 + 8-14 + 9-14 + 3-8 + 3-7 + 10-11 + 11-9 + 8-13 + 11-10 + 6-4 = 80-101
1p: 17-6 + 9-7 + 4-6 + 12-10 + 9-12 + 6-10 + 7-9 + 4-11 + 9-5 + 19-15 = 96-91
First Down Total: 28-17 + 17-21+ 13-20 + 15-18 + 12-19 + 16-21 + 18-18 + 12-24 + 20-15 + 25-19 = 176-192
2r: 6-5 + 3-5 + 6-6 + 0-4 + 2-7 + 4-5 + 7-7 + 9-8 + 2-6 + 5-5 = 44-58
2p: 7-9 + 8-12 + 6-7 + 8-14 + 8-8 + 13-7 + 4-8 + 3-12 + 9-15 + 9-13 = 75-105
Second Down Total: 13-14 + 11-17 +12-13 + 8-18 + 10-15 +17-12 + 11-15 + 12-20 + 11-21 + 14-18 = 119-163
3r: 3-3 + 6-4 + 3-5 + 3-4 + 2-4 + 4-4 + 6-2 + 6-2 + 4-5 + 3-3 = 40-36
3p: 8-5 + 3-8 + 4-7 + 5-7 + 5-6 + 3-8 + 3-8 + 6-10 + 7-10 + 4-8 = 48-77
Third Down Total: 11-8 + 9-12 + 7-12 + 8-11 + 7-10 + 7-12 + 9-10 + 12-12 + 11-15 + 7-11 = 88-113
4r: 0-0 + 3-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 3-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 = 14-1
4p: 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 2-1 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-1 + 2-2 = 6-10
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 3-2 + 1-0 + 2-1 + 3-1 + 3-2 + 2-0 + 1-1 + 1-2 + 3-2 = 20-11

Total on running plays: 20-19 + 20-23 + 19-25 + 8-16 + 8-18 + 21-20 + 26-18 + 24-23 + 17-22 + 15-12 = 178-196
Total on passing plays: 33-20 + 20-29 + 14-20 + 25-32 + 24-27 + 22-27 + 14-25 + 13-34 + 26-31 + 34-38 = 225-283
Total on plays from scrimmage: 53-39 + 40-52 + 33-45 + 33-48 + 32-45 + 43-47 + 40-43 + 37-57 + 43-53 + 49-50 = 403-479

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 3-2 + 3-2 + 3-4 + 3-4 + 3-7 + 4-6 + 7-10 + 2-1 + 2-1 + 3-1 = 33-38

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 75-45 + 57-57 + 55-51 + 49-55 + 44-56 + 61-55 + 57-58 + 49-62 + 57-59 + 69-54 = 573-552

Comment: We have a winning record on offense because we are +102 on kicking plays. We can put the “foot” in football. But we are -76 on plays from scrimmage. At least we’ve cut down on our penalties in recent games. The last three games they have been more likely to be against the defense.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 2-0 + 2-3 + 3-1 + 1-6 + 3-4 + 0-4 + 2-3 + 2-4 + 1-5 + 4-7 = 20-37
P: 9-3 + 2-5 + 0-10 + 2-3 + 1-3 + 2-4 + 1-4 + 2-4 + 2-7 +3-1 = 24-44
FG: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-3 + 2-1 + 0-2 + 0-2 + 0-3 = 3-14
XP: 0-1 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 1-3 + 0-2 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 1-6 = 2-32
Kicking plays total: 11-4 + 4-12 + 3-14 + 3-14 + 6-12 + 2-13 + 5-11 + 4-13 + 3-17 + 8-17 = 49-127

1r: 8-4 + 11-8 + 12-8 + 8-11 + 13-12 + 7-6 + 6-6 + 3-8 + 4-13 + 8-15 = 80-91
1p: 7-2 + 8-5 + 11-6 + 5-4 + 8-6 + 5-9 + 6-7 + 13-9 + 3-5 + 10-11 = 76-64
First Down Total: 15-6 + 19-13 + 23-14 + 13-15 + 21-18 + 12-15 + 12-13 + 16-17 + 7-18 + 18-26 = 156-155
2r: 6-3 + 6-4 + 4-5 + 3-9 + 5-7 + 5-3 + 4-1 + 3-11 + 7-7 + 5-10 = 48-60
2p: 7-3 + 6-8 + 11-6 + 6-2 + 4-12 + 5-5 + 5-10 + 4-11 + 3-2 + 5-6 = 56-65
Second Down Total: 13-6 + 12-12 + 15-11 + 9-11 + 9-19 + 10-8 + 9-11 + 7-22 + 10-9 + 10-16 = 104-125
3r: 7-0 + 3-0 + 1-4 + 1-3 + 1-3 + 3-1 + 3-1 + 4-2 + 5-1 + 4-3 = 32-18
3p: 8-1 + 6-3 + 8-3 + 5-4 + 7-1 + 7-2 + 6-1 + 4-2 + 7-1 + 4-5 = 62-23
Third Down Total: 15-1 + 9-3 + 9-7 + 6-7 + 8-4 + 10-3 + 9-2 + 8-4 + 12-2 + 8-8 = 94-41
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-2 = 3-2
4p: 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 3-3
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-2 = 6-5

Total on running plays: 21-7 + 20-12 + 18-17 + 12-23 + 21-22 + 15-10 + 13-8 + 10-21 + 16-21 + 17-30 = 163-171
Total on passing plays: 22-7 + 21-16 + 30-16 + 16-10 + 19-19 + 17-16 + 18-18 + 22-22 + 13-9 + 19-22 = 197-155
Total on plays from scrimmage: 43-14 + 41-28 + 48-33 + 28-33 + 40-41 + 32-26 + 31-26 +32-43 + 29-30 + 36-52 = 360-326

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 3-2 + 2-1 + 1-2 + 0-1 + 3-3 + 2-2 + 2-2 + 1-1 + 1-2 + 7-2 = 22-18

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 57-20 + 47-41 + 52-49 + 31-48 + 49-56 + 36-41 + 38-39 + 37-57 + 33-49 + 51-71 = 431-471

Overall Game Total: 132-65 + 104-98 + 107-100 + 80-103+ 93-112 + 97-96 + 95-97 + 86-119 + 90-108 +120-125 = 1004-1023

Comment: Wake Forest was only the second team to reach 50% in converting third downs against us. LSU converted 7 of 13. This game featured 245 plays, breaking the record, (since I’ve been figuring winning plays: 2011) set by last year’s Pittsburgh game of 225 plays.

Note: I located two mathematical errors that I have now corrected. I credited Central Michigan with 110 winning plays when they had 100, (and thus we won more plays in that game 107-100. Pittsburgh won 96 play, not 90. In both cases the errors were in our defensive passing totals.



HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only- games we ‘won’ are in bold, games tied in italics.)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87 = +14
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 = +27
Syracuse 75 USC 90 = -15
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = +6
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83 = -9
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106 = -14
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 = -61 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116 = -11
Syracuse 92 USC 98 = -6
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 = +11
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95 = -13
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76 = +9
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73 = +20
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70 = +33
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92 = +23
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122 = -26
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86 = +17
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6
Syracuse 98 Temple 81 = -+17
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82 +23
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 = +91 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 = -38
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 = +63
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76 = +31
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72
Syracuse 111 N C State 85 = +26
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81 = +27
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87 = +13
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79 +20
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 = -80 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 = -12
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76 = +23
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100 = -29
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102 = -27
Syracuse 92 N C State 101 = -9
Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 = -203 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 = +40
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91 = -7
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93 = -13
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97 = -11
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110 = -36
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78 = +11
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 = -100 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
TOTAL: Syracuse 1004 Opponents 1023 = -19 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of10 games

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 7,484 plays, (48.1%) and 29 games, (34.5%). The opposition has won 8,063 plays and 53 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 579 more plays than we have in 84 games, an average of 6.9 plays a game.

 

[upperdeck]

If we had gotten the same passing from Dungey we would have been fine.. What we didnt get other than 2-3 scrambles was any designed runs at all.. Mahoney never kept the ball and several times there were huge uncovered areas to run into.