SWC75
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. . 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
THE WAKE FOREST GAME
For this game, which was so different in the first half than the second, I’m going to mark the halftime point in each category with brackets : ] [
When Syracuse had the ball:
KO: WF 20, WF 25, WF 25, WE 25, WF 25, WF 25] [WF 30, WF 24
Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 1 (6-0 first half 1-1 second half)
P: 49 to WF 24, 51 to WF 26 FUMBLE] [28 to WF 17
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 0 (2-0 first, 1-0 second)
FG: No Good from 45, Good from 30] [Good from 47, No Good from 51
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 2 (1-1 in each half)
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good] [none
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 0 (5-0, 0-0)
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 17 Wake Forest 3 (14-1, 3-2)
1r: 3, 4, 0, 1(2)] [1, 4, 4, 1, 5, 5
Total: Syracuse 6-4 Wake Forest (2-2, 4-2)
1p: 9, 11, I, 11, 13, I, I, I, 7, 9, 21, 16, -2(S), 5, 16, 6, 0, I, I, 18TD] [3, I, 8, I, I, -1, 5(S), 11, 7, I, Interception, 20, 13, 7
Total: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 15 (12-8, 7-7)
First Down Total: Syracuse 25 Wake Forest 19 (14-10, 11-9)
2r: 6, 47(7), 1, 2, 3(3), 1TD, -4] [16(6), 2, -1
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 5 (4-3, 1-2)
2p: 36(1), I, 7(6), I, I, 30(12), 17(5), I, I, 13] [I, 7(S), I, 2, 11(6), 13(9), I, Interception, I, 13(3), I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Wake Forest 13 (5-5, 4-8)
Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 Wake Forest 18 (9-8, 5-10)
3r: 0, 2(4), 3(1)] [12(9), 3(2), -3
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 3 (1-2, 2-1)
3p: 19TD, I, 5(S), I, 9(14), -1] [I, I, 11(6), I, 17(10), -7(S)
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 8 (2-4, 2-4)
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 11 (3-6, 4-5)
4r: 43TD] [none
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0 (1-0, 0-0)
4p: 26(5), 13(4-S)] [I, 6
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 2 (2-0, 0-2)
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 2 (3-0, 0-2)
Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Wake Forest 12 (8-7, 7-5)
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 34 Wake Forest 38 (21-17, 13-21)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 49 Wake Forest 50 (29-24, 20-26)
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, +2] [-5, +10 Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 1 (2-1, 1-0)
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 69 Wake Forest 54 (45-26, 24-28)
Comments: There wasn’t a huge difference between the number of successful plays from scrimmage we had in the 38 point first half and the 5 point second half. Three things produce points on offense: acquiring yards, (we had 425 in the first half and 196 in the second but 196 yards in a half isn’t bad); getting explosive plays, (we had 6 plays of 20 yards or more in the first half plus the fumbled punt we recovered; 1 in the second half plus the PAT return), an timeliness: you’ve got to run the good plays together to have a successful drive, (in 7 second half possessions we got at least one first down in 5 of them but all we got was a field goal: we punted once, missed a field goal and threw two interceptions). We got going but we didn’t get big plays or keep going in that second half.
When Wake Forest had the ball:
KO: SU 17, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25] [SU 25, SU 25, SU 38, SU 36, SU 25, SU 32, SU 30
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 7 (0-4 in first half, 4-3 in second half)
P: 25 to SU 44, 46 to SU 23, 38 to SU 27, 34 to SU 22] [none
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 1 (3-1, 0-0)
FG: Good from 41] [Good from 43, Good from 30
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 3 (0-1, 0-2)
XP: Good, Good, Good] [Good, Blocked & returned for 2pts, Good, Good. Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 6 (0-3, 1-3)
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 17 (3-9, 5-8)
1r: 3, 0, 3TD, 2, 15, 1, 3TD, 9, 10, 9, 5, 8] [14, 11, 7, 15, 3(20), -1, 9, 4, 3, -1, -2V
Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 15 (4-8, 4-7)
1p: 22, 8, 12, 19(S), 31TD, I, -2, 7, I, I, 44] [16, I, I, I, 18, -2(S), 9, 19TD, I, I
Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 11 (4-7, 6-4)
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 Wake Forest 26 (8-15, 10-11)
2r: 2(2), 3(9), 6(1), 3, 3(1), 3, (3(5), 6] [ 3, 4, 15, 3, 2(1), 3(6), 8(7)
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 10 (3-5, 2-5)
2p: 0(S), I, 22(8), 11, -1] [16(17), 6(8), 16(17), 4, 4(20), 6TD
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 6 (3-2, 2-4)
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 16 (6-7, 4-9)
3r: 11(6), 3(4)] [ 1(7), 9TD, 1(2), 5(6), 76TD
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 3 (1-1, 3-2)
3p: 30(12), 20(10), I, I, I, 2(2)] [21(6), 21(16), I
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 5 (3-3, 1-2)
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 8 (4-4, 4-4)
4r: none] [23(1), 29TD
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 2 (0-0, 0-2)
4p: none] [none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0 (0-0, 0-0)
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 2 (0-0, 0-2)
Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Wake Forest 30 (8-14, 9-16)
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 22 (10-12, 9-10)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 36 Wake Forest 52 (18-26, 18-26)
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, -5, -5] [-5, -10, +5, -10 Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 2 (3-1. 4-1)
Game total when Wake Forest had the ball: Syracuse 51 Wake Forest 71
Overall game total: Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125
Comments: We were equally bad from scrimmage in each half- exactly: 18 wins, 26 losses. Wake matched us with 6 explosive plays, (20 yards or more), in the first half but added 4 more in the second half. They scored on all 7 second half possessions: 5TDs and 2 field goals.
This was a -5 gave, (we lost five more plays than we won) which makes it comparable to these games since 2011:
2011 Connecticut 84-86 = -2 Syracuse lost 21-28
2011 Pittsburgh 87-93 = -6 Syracuse lost 20-33
2012 Southern California 92-98 = -6 Syracuse lost 29-42
2012 Missouri 92-98 = -6 Syracuse won 31-27
2014 Boston College 72-78 = -6 Syracuse lost 7-28
2015 Central Michigan 84-91 = -7 Syracuse won 30-27
2015 Louisiana State 84-89 = -5 Syracuse lost 24-34
2016 Connecticut 91-99 = -8 Syracuse won 31-24
2017 Clemson 95-97 = -2 Syracuse won 27-24
2017 Wake Forest 120-125 = -5 Syracuse lost 43-64
A game close in plays could have many possible results.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. . 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
THE WAKE FOREST GAME
For this game, which was so different in the first half than the second, I’m going to mark the halftime point in each category with brackets : ] [
When Syracuse had the ball:
KO: WF 20, WF 25, WF 25, WE 25, WF 25, WF 25] [WF 30, WF 24
Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 1 (6-0 first half 1-1 second half)
P: 49 to WF 24, 51 to WF 26 FUMBLE] [28 to WF 17
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 0 (2-0 first, 1-0 second)
FG: No Good from 45, Good from 30] [Good from 47, No Good from 51
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 2 (1-1 in each half)
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good] [none
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 0 (5-0, 0-0)
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 17 Wake Forest 3 (14-1, 3-2)
1r: 3, 4, 0, 1(2)] [1, 4, 4, 1, 5, 5
Total: Syracuse 6-4 Wake Forest (2-2, 4-2)
1p: 9, 11, I, 11, 13, I, I, I, 7, 9, 21, 16, -2(S), 5, 16, 6, 0, I, I, 18TD] [3, I, 8, I, I, -1, 5(S), 11, 7, I, Interception, 20, 13, 7
Total: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 15 (12-8, 7-7)
First Down Total: Syracuse 25 Wake Forest 19 (14-10, 11-9)
2r: 6, 47(7), 1, 2, 3(3), 1TD, -4] [16(6), 2, -1
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 5 (4-3, 1-2)
2p: 36(1), I, 7(6), I, I, 30(12), 17(5), I, I, 13] [I, 7(S), I, 2, 11(6), 13(9), I, Interception, I, 13(3), I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Wake Forest 13 (5-5, 4-8)
Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 Wake Forest 18 (9-8, 5-10)
3r: 0, 2(4), 3(1)] [12(9), 3(2), -3
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 3 (1-2, 2-1)
3p: 19TD, I, 5(S), I, 9(14), -1] [I, I, 11(6), I, 17(10), -7(S)
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 8 (2-4, 2-4)
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 11 (3-6, 4-5)
4r: 43TD] [none
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0 (1-0, 0-0)
4p: 26(5), 13(4-S)] [I, 6
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 2 (2-0, 0-2)
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 2 (3-0, 0-2)
Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Wake Forest 12 (8-7, 7-5)
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 34 Wake Forest 38 (21-17, 13-21)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 49 Wake Forest 50 (29-24, 20-26)
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, +2] [-5, +10 Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 1 (2-1, 1-0)
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 69 Wake Forest 54 (45-26, 24-28)
Comments: There wasn’t a huge difference between the number of successful plays from scrimmage we had in the 38 point first half and the 5 point second half. Three things produce points on offense: acquiring yards, (we had 425 in the first half and 196 in the second but 196 yards in a half isn’t bad); getting explosive plays, (we had 6 plays of 20 yards or more in the first half plus the fumbled punt we recovered; 1 in the second half plus the PAT return), an timeliness: you’ve got to run the good plays together to have a successful drive, (in 7 second half possessions we got at least one first down in 5 of them but all we got was a field goal: we punted once, missed a field goal and threw two interceptions). We got going but we didn’t get big plays or keep going in that second half.
When Wake Forest had the ball:
KO: SU 17, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25] [SU 25, SU 25, SU 38, SU 36, SU 25, SU 32, SU 30
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 7 (0-4 in first half, 4-3 in second half)
P: 25 to SU 44, 46 to SU 23, 38 to SU 27, 34 to SU 22] [none
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 1 (3-1, 0-0)
FG: Good from 41] [Good from 43, Good from 30
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 3 (0-1, 0-2)
XP: Good, Good, Good] [Good, Blocked & returned for 2pts, Good, Good. Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 6 (0-3, 1-3)
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 17 (3-9, 5-8)
1r: 3, 0, 3TD, 2, 15, 1, 3TD, 9, 10, 9, 5, 8] [14, 11, 7, 15, 3(20), -1, 9, 4, 3, -1, -2V
Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 15 (4-8, 4-7)
1p: 22, 8, 12, 19(S), 31TD, I, -2, 7, I, I, 44] [16, I, I, I, 18, -2(S), 9, 19TD, I, I
Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 11 (4-7, 6-4)
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 Wake Forest 26 (8-15, 10-11)
2r: 2(2), 3(9), 6(1), 3, 3(1), 3, (3(5), 6] [ 3, 4, 15, 3, 2(1), 3(6), 8(7)
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 10 (3-5, 2-5)
2p: 0(S), I, 22(8), 11, -1] [16(17), 6(8), 16(17), 4, 4(20), 6TD
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 6 (3-2, 2-4)
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 16 (6-7, 4-9)
3r: 11(6), 3(4)] [ 1(7), 9TD, 1(2), 5(6), 76TD
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 3 (1-1, 3-2)
3p: 30(12), 20(10), I, I, I, 2(2)] [21(6), 21(16), I
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 5 (3-3, 1-2)
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 8 (4-4, 4-4)
4r: none] [23(1), 29TD
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 2 (0-0, 0-2)
4p: none] [none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0 (0-0, 0-0)
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 2 (0-0, 0-2)
Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Wake Forest 30 (8-14, 9-16)
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 22 (10-12, 9-10)
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 36 Wake Forest 52 (18-26, 18-26)
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, -5, -5] [-5, -10, +5, -10 Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 2 (3-1. 4-1)
Game total when Wake Forest had the ball: Syracuse 51 Wake Forest 71
Overall game total: Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125
Comments: We were equally bad from scrimmage in each half- exactly: 18 wins, 26 losses. Wake matched us with 6 explosive plays, (20 yards or more), in the first half but added 4 more in the second half. They scored on all 7 second half possessions: 5TDs and 2 field goals.
This was a -5 gave, (we lost five more plays than we won) which makes it comparable to these games since 2011:
2011 Connecticut 84-86 = -2 Syracuse lost 21-28
2011 Pittsburgh 87-93 = -6 Syracuse lost 20-33
2012 Southern California 92-98 = -6 Syracuse lost 29-42
2012 Missouri 92-98 = -6 Syracuse won 31-27
2014 Boston College 72-78 = -6 Syracuse lost 7-28
2015 Central Michigan 84-91 = -7 Syracuse won 30-27
2015 Louisiana State 84-89 = -5 Syracuse lost 24-34
2016 Connecticut 91-99 = -8 Syracuse won 31-24
2017 Clemson 95-97 = -2 Syracuse won 27-24
2017 Wake Forest 120-125 = -5 Syracuse lost 43-64
A game close in plays could have many possible results.