Yikes, CFN Cuse/BC prediction

[Eric15]

I feel like CFN is always fair towards us. They had us going 6-6 this year while beating VT. But this prediction I hope is horribly off the mark.

Syracuse (3-4) vs. Boston College (3-3) Game Preview
Broadcast
Date: Saturday, Oct. 22
Game Time: 12:30 pm
Venue: Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA
Network: ACC Network

Is this it? Is this really going to be the one that breaks the streak?

The last Boston College win over an ACC team came on November 29th, 2014 in a 28-7 blowout over Syracuse. With two weeks off to rest up and get ready after getting blasted by Clemson – and with at NC State, Louisville, at Florida State and at Wake Forest to close things out in conference play – this might be it.

Syracuse had its own breakthrough moment last week with a stunner at home over Virginia Tech when everything clicked.

The defense bent, but didn’t break all that often, while QB Eric Dungey and the offense were solid throughout in the 31-17 win. The Orange have their own problems coming up with at Clemson, NC State, Florida State and at Pitt to close things out, so if there’s any dream of a bowl appearance, this is a must win.

How do the Eagles pull this off? They run, they keep Dungey on the sidelines, and they don’t let this get into any sort of a shootout.

This is a very, very dinged Orange team with the offensive line taking a big hit after last week, but the O should be able to piece it all together to give Dungey time to work – and BC has to disrupt that.

Bring the terrific pass rush, control the clock – BC keeps the ball for over 34 minutes per game – and use the fantastic secondary to come up with third down stops. Granted, the Eagles haven’t faced a slew of top passing teams, but they still have a secondary that’s slowing down everything and everyone but Deshaun Watson.

BC showed off its offense against the Wagners and Buffalos of the world, but if Syracuse can crank up a few early scores, forget about it.

But the Eagles will keep that from happening.

The two weeks off will do wonders. BC will run just well enough against the porous Orange front seven, and the defense will take care of the rest as Dungey and company stall time and again.

The last time they were on the road, Wake Forest won 28-9. It won’t be that bad, but SU will be painfully frustrated as the Eagles end the long, long streak.

Syracuse vs. Boston College Prediction
Final Score: Boston College 26, Syracuse 17

 

[Rocco]

Anyone who uses that Wake Forest game as a road game barometer is instantly discredited.

 

[orange79]

Hey - a third Superfan® found!

 

[Chip]

Phil Steele just said BC by a TD.

Playing on the home field, backs against the wall, refreshed after a bye and us coming off emotional and physical win angle.

Maybe it's good no one thinks we'll win, including Vegas.

It's not their fault. They didn't know.

 

[upperdeck]

the wake game skewd a ton of stats. we would be closer to 30 pts a game not 26, but even at 26 BC only scores about 12 a game in the 4 real decent teams they played. I hope that just fuels the team even more coming off that crappy bus ride today.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Well, that just has a lot of inaccuracies.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

Well, that just has a lot of inaccuracies.

I stopped reading after the "Banged up OLine" thing. We've had the same starting 5 for the last 4 games.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I stopped reading after the "Banged up OLine" thing. We've had the same starting 5 for the last 4 games.

And our porous front seven.

Listen, bud. It's our secondary that's porous. Get it right.

 

[GoSU96]

Here are some other notes.

30% of BC's total rushing yards are against Wagner. The remainder of their games they went for 176 against GT, and 155 or less against everyone else.

SU's defensive weakness is giving up big plays. BC is 122nd in the country in plays of 10 yds or more.

 

[GoSU96]

Here are some other notes.

30% of BC's total rushing yards are against Wagner. The remainder of their games they went for 176 against GT, and 155 or less against everyone else. 30% of the yards has allowed came against Lville. Lamar Jackson isn't walking through that door.

SU's defensive weakness is giving up big plays. BC is 122nd in the country in plays of 10 yds or more.

 

[bnoro]

Until we start winning 7+ games a season, we're going to get lazy game write ups by people who haven't seen us play this season. Just have to deal with it.

 

[upperdeck]

It was strange though to hear Steele pick them and use arguments about how we only score 26 a game but get tons of yards against us, and mention BC has a great D since the only team that moved against them was CLemson, but totally ignore how bad they have been on offense. They did a decent job against the option of GT game one was about all he had good for them.

 

[TheCusian]

Showed off their offense vs Buffalo and Wagner? Is this a thing worth saying?BC

Better line: BC showed off their offense vs P5 teams and are worse than Rutgers (3 completions, first 1st down in the 4th Q Rutgers).

Total yards:
BC O vs P5: #113
Rutgers O vs P5: #110
UCONN O vs P5: #76
SYR O vs P5: #35

YPP:
BC O vs P5: #114
Rutgers O vs P5: #115
UCONN O vs P5: #95
SYR O vs P5: #74

 

[TheCusian]

Might as well run the D stats vs P5 too (feeling generous - not a nice for us):

Total yards:
BC O vs P5: #49
Rutgers O vs P5: #78
UCONN O vs P5: #60
SYR O vs P5: #107

YPP:
BC O vs P5: #72
Rutgers O vs P5: #101
UCONN O vs P5: #70
SYR O vs P5: #109

You can see the difference in BC's total yards and YPP - they give up big plays and play keep away, NE slow-ball.

 

[TheCusian]

Also interesting:

VTECH vs P5 in defensive YPP allowed: #4

 

[PhatOrange]

Except the weather is going to be fkng horrible and we can’t run the football. Rainy 52 and 20+mph wind. It’s going to be RAW and that favors the home team.

It just blows my mind our two easiest games the weather is going to be a disaster for us. A couple of months ago when I analyzed our road schedule I pictured 2 sunny fall Saturdays at Wake and BC and also considered we’d be on turf and not grass for both. At a minimum at least we’re on turf.

60 degrees and sunny and we blow out BC. No doubt in my mind we would have beaten Wake to.

25 mph gusts will also effect the kicking game, hopefully against them and not us.

Oh well. When we can run the football these games won’t have me on edge.

 

[Reyes39]

Phil Steele just said BC by a TD.

Playing on the home field, backs against the wall, refreshed after a bye and us coming off emotional and physical win angle.

Maybe it's good no one thinks we'll win, including Vegas.

It's not their fault. They didn't know.

Well, considering Steele went 0-9 in his "best bets" last weekend...I'm glad he took the Eagles!

 

[upperdeck]

i really think the coaches over thought the weather in the wake game.. wake threw the ball into the wind with some success and we didnt even try. both teams can slip in the rain, we need to protect better on the blitz so we can throw. it wont be 100% rain so there should be periods of weather we can move the ball a bit. if you look at the hourly at noon its 60 and 40% rain with winds 15-20. thats much better than the wake game. maybe it blows thru a bit sooner if we are lucky

 

[PhatOrange]

i really think the coaches over thought the weather in the wake game.. wake threw the ball into the wind with some success and we didnt even try. both teams can slip in the rain, we need to protect better on the blitz so we can throw. it wont be 100% rain so there should be periods of weather we can move the ball a bit. if you look at the hourly at noon its 60 and 40% rain with winds 15-20. thats much better than the wake game. maybe it blows thru a bit sooner if we are lucky

I agree with this. I think they over thought the weather as well. I don't think they'll make that mistake again (and if stubborn, it has to even be obvious to them we cant run).

Wind shouldn't effect a shorter passing game. slants, screens etc.

curious. against Wake, why didn't we go back to that pop pass over the middle to McPhearson. It worked both times I saw us run it.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

We can't be afraid of weather.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Picking BC is fair but the score is a joke. They won't score more than 17 because they simply can't. They are 0 for their last 12 vs the P5 with a high of 17 points and an average under 10 ppg. If they win it will be something like 16-13.

 

[Moontan]

SU gets first possession, scores TD on opening drive. Game over.

#DomeDudes > the Dazzler's dudes.

 

[orangenauburn]

Truth be told I'd love a shutout

Say, 50-0

 

[upperdeck]

I agree with this. I think they over thought the weather as well. I don't think they'll make that mistake again (and even if stubborn, it has to even be obvious to them we cant run).

Wind shouldn't effect a shorter passing game. slants, screens etc.

curious. against Wake, why didn't we go back to that pop pass over the middle to McPhearson. It worked both times I saw us run it.

I think we threw it one more time and almost got picked.

I do wonder how the game turns out if we score that TD at the end of the half. as bad as we moved the ball at times we still had 330 yds so we werent completely shut down, just no points on the 2-3 drives we did have

 

[upperdeck]

Picking BC is fair but the score is a joke. They won't score more than 17 because they simply can't. They are 0 for their last 12 vs the P5 with a high of 17 points and an average under 10 ppg. If they win it will be something like 16-13.

if we loses in a weather driven low scoring game, you just live with, bad timing sucks..

if we lose and allow much over 20 then its our fault.