-1.5 point dogs for tomorrow | Syracusefan.com

-1.5 point dogs for tomorrow

If I was a completely neutral bettor with no rooting interest, I would take NC State here in heartbeat.

The spread would have to be about 6.5 or so before I'd feel comfortable taking us.
 
I don't gamble, ever, but - doesn't home 'advantage' count for like 3 points?

So, that means, we'd actually be favored on a neutral floor.

And - NC State may as well be a neutral floor, we take over that place almost as bad as the RAC. ;)
 
Again for the third time our line is insane and if I had a never bet on my team philosophy I would be pounding NC State -1.5.
Dennis Smith Jr. is a lottery pick and is really good. I don't get it we haven't won a road game in a long time.
 
Alsacs said:
Again for the third time our line is insane and if I had a never bet on my team philosophy I would be pounding NC State -1.5.
Dennis Smith Jr. is a lottery pick and is really good. I don't get it we haven't won a road game in a long time.
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I don't think it's that crazy. They lost by 5 at home to Wake. The Duke game for them is a clear outlier.
 
I really don't have a feel for this game, we have been awful on the road, Nc State has been pretty bad, other than their win at Cameron, they have the best player on the floor, we probably have the better team,and obviously the better coach.
 
If we play the way we played at UNC we will be fine as long as we dont get out rebounded by 10.
 
CorduroyG said:
until we prove we can actually win a game on the road and not look like a bunch of strangers thrown on the court to play together for the first time im staying far away from the cuse.
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Obviously we are all going to be rooting like maniacs for SU to win tomorrow night, but putting your hard-earned money on us +1.5 is certifiably insane to me.
 
Reading their chat board, their fans will give them little support if things start to go south. Fans have mostly given up on them for the season.
 
Anybody else dumb enough to put a bet on Rutgers tonight (albeit a small bet as usual with me)
 
jncuse said:
Anybody else dumb enough to put a bet on Rutgers tonight (albeit a small bet as usual with me)
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They actually hung with Iowa in Iowa City but they're back to Rutgersing tonight. Started to come back a little at the end of the half though. By the way, my dad went to Iowa. Trust me, I'm not watching Rutgers for enjoyment.
 
721Comstock said:
I don't gamble, ever, but - doesn't home 'advantage' count for like 3 points?

So, that means, we'd actually be favored on a neutral floor.

And - NC State may as well be a neutral floor, we take over that place almost as bad as the RAC. ;)
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It varies by year but in college BB usually averages about 3.5 points. Syracuse over the last few years (as JB noted) has been a good road team and only has a differential of 2.2 points (NCAA Basketball Home Court Advantage: The Ultimate Guide)

This year is a completely different story but it does not seem like Vegas cares about the poor performance in a small road sample size this year at least with the initial line. We are 30 spots better in KenPom so using the regular -1.5 + 3.5 = 2 points which is about what you'd expect based on KenPom rankings.

If you consider how awful we are on the road this year, it looks like a lock to bet on NCSU but its only 5 games.

HOME: 1146 (76.4) pts for, 964 (64.3) pts against, 15 games +12.1 AVG...
AWAY: 348 (69.6) pts for, 425 (85.0) pts against, 5 games -15.4 AVG...
NEUTRAL: 50-52 MSG UConn, 50-64 Brooklyn SC
Average Home / Away differential = 13.75

This includes the cream puffs at the beginning of the year so the home differential would expect to lower with including the full year of ACC games but 13.75 is still pretty crazy.

I just ran the math for SU but I wonder what it is for the ACC overall this year. It sure does seem like ACC teams are really struggling to win on the road more than usual.
 
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Alsacs said:
Again for the third time our line is insane and if I had a never bet on my team philosophy I would be pounding NC State -1.5.
Dennis Smith Jr. is a lottery pick and is really good. I don't get it we haven't won a road game in a long time.
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Well... to play devil's advocate we've only played 5... four of them were @WIS, @UNC, @ND, and @VT who are all upper half ACC teams and a top 15 team. Yes @BC was a stinker amidst apparent team drama and none of these have been close so who knows but its a pretty small sample. The bigger issue is we haven't even been competitive in any of these.

NCSU isn't much of a home court advantage playing in a hockey arena off campus instead of Reynolds. We shall see.
 
MSOrange said:
They actually hung with Iowa in Iowa City but they're back to Rutgersing tonight. Started to come back a little at the end of the half though. By the way, my dad went to Iowa. Trust me, I'm not watching Rutgers for enjoyment.
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I always enjoy seeing them get blown out, esp by mediocre teams at the Rac.
 
AZcuse77 said:
It varies by year but in college BB usually averages about 3.5 points. Syracuse over the last few years (as JB noted) has been a good road team and only has a differential of 2.2 points (NCAA Basketball Home Court Advantage: The Ultimate Guide)

This year is a completely different story but it does not seem like Vegas cares about the poor performance in a small road sample size this year at least with the initial line. We are 30 spots better in KenPom so using the regular -1.5 + 3.5 = 2 points which is about what you'd expect based on KenPom rankings.

If you consider how awful we are on the road this year, it looks like a lock to bet on NCSU but its only 5 games.

HOME: 1146 (76.4) pts for, 964 (64.3) pts against, 15 games +12.1 AVG...
AWAY: 348 (69.6) pts for, 425 (85.0) pts against, 5 games -15.4 AVG...
NEUTRAL: 50-52 MSG UConn, 50-64 Brooklyn SC
Average Home / Away differential = 13.75

This includes the cream puffs at the beginning of the year so the home differential would expect to lower with including the full year of ACC games but 13.75 is still pretty crazy.

I just ran the math for SU but I wonder what it is for the ACC overall this year. It sure does seem like ACC teams are really struggling to win on the road more than usual.
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It may be a small sample size, however the historical road performance, even recent historical performance, has zero bearing on this team. This team is essentially four first year players and I would weight their specific road performance as a team this year much higher than an aggregate of historical SU teams.
 
AZcuse77 said:
It varies by year but in college BB usually averages about 3.5 points. Syracuse over the last few years (as JB noted) has been a good road team and only has a differential of 2.2 points (NCAA Basketball Home Court Advantage: The Ultimate Guide)

This year is a completely different story but it does not seem like Vegas cares about the poor performance in a small road sample size this year at least with the initial line. We are 30 spots better in KenPom so using the regular -1.5 + 3.5 = 2 points which is about what you'd expect based on KenPom rankings.

If you consider how awful we are on the road this year, it looks like a lock to bet on NCSU but its only 5 games.

HOME: 1146 (76.4) pts for, 964 (64.3) pts against, 15 games +12.1 AVG...
AWAY: 348 (69.6) pts for, 425 (85.0) pts against, 5 games -15.4 AVG...
NEUTRAL: 50-52 MSG UConn, 50-64 Brooklyn SC
Average Home / Away differential = 13.75

This includes the cream puffs at the beginning of the year so the home differential would expect to lower with including the full year of ACC games but 13.75 is still pretty crazy.

I just ran the math for SU but I wonder what it is for the ACC overall this year. It sure does seem like ACC teams are really struggling to win on the road more than usual.
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I don't have differentials, but home teams in the league are winning at a 66.2% clip this year. Last year was 65.9%, year before was 56.3%, which has to be crazy low.
 
STEVEHOLT said:
It may be a small sample size, however the historical road performance, even recent historical performance, has zero bearing on this team. This team is essentially four first year players and I would weight their specific road performance as a team this year much higher than an aggregate of historical SU teams.
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I'm not sure I get you here. Syracuse was the best road team in the history of the Big East. Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but this year's team has clearly been worse on the road than an aggregate of Syracuse teams from the past 30-40 years. They are also much worse then their home selves in this season. Maybe they have turned things around and it was just too visible due to the nature of their previous 2 away opponents, but they need to prove it tonight. It is why tonight's game is so critical - it can show if they've gotten themselves together or not.
 
Knicks411 said:
I don't have differentials, but home teams in the league are winning at a 66.2% clip this year. Last year was 65.9%, year before was 56.3%, which has to be crazy low.
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I'm bored, KP has this stuff going back to 2002, I know we weren't in the league then, but I'm gonna do it anyway

2002: 63.9%
2003: 73.6%
2004: 65.3%
2005: 62.5%
2006: 62.5%
2007: 65.6%
2008: 60.4%
2009: 63.5%
2010: 68.7%
2011: 65.6%
2012: 60.4%
2013: 68.5%
2014: 57% (our first year in)
2015: 56.3%
2016: 65.9%
2017: 66.2%

The first 2 years after they added the BE teams seems like outliers to the low side, 2003 to the high side, but otherwise, basically you're talking around 65% every year.
 
Knicks411 said:
I don't have differentials, but home teams in the league are winning at a 66.2% clip this year. Last year was 65.9%, year before was 56.3%, which has to be crazy low.
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Thanks... that would make sense, since from what I've seen of the initial lines based on KenPom efficiency margins seem to indicate more like 4 or 4.5 home differential than 3.5. I was wondering how specific Vegas gets knowing the advantage / environment at Cameron is a lot different than say Notre Dame.

BTW- Syracuse spread has been bet down to a PICK EM.
 
AZcuse77 said:
Thanks... that would make sense, since from what I've seen of the initial lines based on KenPom efficiency margins seem to indicate more like 4 or 4.5 home differential than 3.5. I was wondering how specific Vegas gets knowing the advantage / environment at Cameron is a lot different than say Notre Dame.

BTW- Syracuse spread has been bet down to a PICK EM.
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My assumption is always that Vegas knows what the hell they're doing, so I'm assuming a home game in Cameron gets a slight bump (maybe its just half a point, but everything matters) as compared to a generic home court
 
Knicks411 said:
I'm bored, KP has this stuff going back to 2002, I know we weren't in the league then, but I'm gonna do it anyway

2002: 63.9%
2003: 73.6%
2004: 65.3%
2005: 62.5%
2006: 62.5%
2007: 65.6%
2008: 60.4%
2009: 63.5%
2010: 68.7%
2011: 65.6%
2012: 60.4%
2013: 68.5%
2014: 57% (our first year in)
2015: 56.3%
2016: 65.9%
2017: 66.2%

The first 2 years after they added the BE teams seems like outliers to the low side, 2003 to the high side, but otherwise, basically you're talking around 65% every year.
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My guess on 2014 and 2015, was that there was an abnormal mix of great teams and really bad teams. I remember a group of really bad teams when we entered the league (BC, Wake, Tech, Clemson) -- the variance was higher than normal and about a 1/4 of the league could not win at home or on the road.
 
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AZcuse77 said:
Thanks... that would make sense, since from what I've seen of the initial lines based on KenPom efficiency margins seem to indicate more like 4 or 4.5 home differential than 3.5. I was wondering how specific Vegas gets knowing the advantage / environment at Cameron is a lot different than say Notre Dame.

BTW- Syracuse spread has been bet down to a PICK EM.
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Duke has lost 4 conference games outright the past year and a half at Home. They are 9-12 against the spread this year alone. I'm not sure what the home/road splits are, but I doubt they cover much at home. Casual bettors usually lose a lot of their bets because they tend to follow popular opinion doesn't have a very good track record in Vegas.

Notre Dame is the complete Opposite. They've covered about 60-65 percent this year. The devil is in the details (or in this case, the math).
 
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